Money Flow Trading Method along with Risk Management

https://www.brighteon.com/6d28b0a8-d...d-a2d896bfb7c4

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https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitic...aza-barbarians

Over 100 Bodies Found In Israeli Kibbutz; Biden Confirms 11 Americans Killed & "Likely" More In Captivity
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BY TYLER DURDEN

MONDAY, OCT 09, 2023 - 07:05 PM

Update(1905ET): The numbers of Israeli hostages being held by Hamas has been revised upward to an estimated 150. By Monday's end at least 900 Israelis have been reported killed and nearly 2,400 wounded since the Saturday surprise assault from Gaza. Palestinian emergency sources report 560 dead and over 2,700 wounded in Gaza has heavy Israeli bombardment of the strip has continued.

In one single kibbutz near the border, at least 108 bodies have been discovered amid the ongoing Israeli search, rescue and recovery efforts:
Israeli volunteer rescue organization ZAKA said Monday night that it had discovered more than 100 bodies in Kibbutz Be'eri near the Gaza border.
“Large teams cleared bodies all day from kibbutz Be'eri," the organization said. "There were weapons everywhere, grenades, and RPGs. We cleared 108 bodies and we are not done yet."


Front gate of the Kibbutz after the attack. pic.twitter.com/bNmGee4MnT
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) October 9, 2023

The New York Times has also begun to piece together eyewitness accounts of the Saturday invasion into southern Israel, as more identifies of the kidnapped have come to light:
The hostages were seized from homes in towns along Israel’s border with Gaza — including the Kalderons’ small village of Kibbutz Nahal Oz — as well as from military bases and an enormous outdoor dance party.

They include civilians, soldiers, people with disabilities, children, grandparents and even a 9-month-old baby. The hostages are also believed to include at least one Palestinian resident of Israel, a bus driver who spent the night near the outdoor party after driving Israelis there, his family said.

The capture of so many Israelis by Palestinian militants has taken the Israeli-Palestinian conflict into uncharted territory — not only in the sheer number of hostages, but also in the dire threats Hamas is making against them.

And The Washington Post has verified some of the horrifying footage to have emerged, including summary executions of Israeli hostages in the immediate aftermath of the Hamas/PIJ incursion:
At least four Israelis taken hostage by Hamas during their unprecedented incursion into Israel on Saturday were killed soon after being taken captive, according to videos reviewed by The Washington Post. Graphic video shared on Telegram on Oct. 8, and verified by The Post, shows multiple bodies in the street in Be’eri, a kibbutz in southern Israel, just yards from where Hamas militants were filmed walking with several civilians who appear to be those same hostages.

Huge swathes of Gaza are under rubble...

JUST IN: Drone footage of Gaza city has been released by Bloomberg.

Citizens along the Gaza Strip are being caught in the crossfire as the war between Hamas and Israel escalates.

Hundreds of apartments and homes have been demolished displacing more than 123,000 people.

The IDF… pic.twitter.com/1CTbUZDugL
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) October 9, 2023

Netanyahu in a Monday speech vowed, "What we will do to our enemies in the coming days will reverberate with them for generations."

Meanwhile, Hezbollah's involvement from the north appears to be growing.

The US has issued a stern warning for the Lebanese Shia paramilitary group not to enter the conflict. President Biden on Monday said that at least 11 Americans were confirmed killed. He said there are "likely" more being held hostage. Many of these may be dual citizens. Here's part of Biden's statement:
"It's heart wrenching," Biden said in a statement. "These families have been torn apart by inexcusable hatred and violence."


Biden said his administration is aware other U.S. citizens are missing and that they are working with Israeli officials to learn more about their whereabouts, though he didn't elaborate on how many Americans are unaccounted for as the conflict rages.
"The safety of American citizens -- whether at home or abroad -- is my top priority as President," Biden said.

"While we are still working to confirm, we believe it is likely that American citizens may be among those being held by Hamas," he continued. "I have directed my team to work with their Israeli counterparts on every aspect of the hostage crisis, including sharing intelligence and deploying experts from across the United States government to consult with and advise Israeli counterparts on hostage recovery efforts."

Hezbollah targeted the command centre of #Israel’s Galilee Division based at Branit military barracks with 5 guided missiles in response for the martyrdom of 3 Hezbollah fighters in Israeli shelling in southern #Lebanon.

Slow and unmistakable escalation on the northern front. pic.twitter.com/Rx5nvaDpXl
— H. Sumeri (@IraqiSecurity) October 9, 2023

Below is a brief review of other developments of the last 24-48 hours, via Academy Securities:

1. Israel has seized control of the communities around Gaza that were at the center of the horrific attacks by Hamas over the past 48 hours.
2. Israel’s Ministry of Defense has ordered a "complete siege" of Gaza cutting off electricity, food, fuel, and water to the region and has called up 300,000 reservists.
3. Israel flew in munitions from the U.S. over the weekend, including GBU-39 Small Diameter Bombs and the expectation is that Israel will ask for small arms, ammunition, tank rounds, and Tamir interceptors for Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system.
4. The U.S. is also sending the USS Ford Carrier Strike Group to the Eastern Mediterranean to show solidarity with Israel and to discourage other parties from getting involved/supporting Hamas in this conflict, i.e., Iran and Hezbollah.
5. Hezbollah exchanged artillery and rocket fire on Sunday with Israeli forces raising concern of an escalation of the violence, but Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah BouHabib said that his government has been assured by Hezbollah that it will not join the fighting unless Israel “harasses” Lebanon.
6. While unconfirmed by U.S. intelligence (and denied by Iran), Iranian security officials reportedly helped plan Hamas’s attack and gave the “green light” for the assault at a meeting in Beirut last Monday, according to senior members of Hamas and Hezbollah.
7. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has said that creating a Palestinian state was the “most reliable” solution for peace in Israel and could see Russia as a peacemaker (it has a relationship with all the parties involved).

And thoughts on market-related impact via The Academy T-Report:
How far does Israel go, given that this has shaken the nation to its core. The veil of safety has been pierced. Maybe the better question is how far can they go without turning a part of the world against them? While the most vicious and deadly battles will be fought in the streets (and underground) there will be information and misinformation campaigns trying to shift global opinion. Can you “win” the battle but risk “losing” the war? This will be tricky, and the relative small size of the Gaza Strip and a high population density will make it extremely difficult to be effective and not harm civilians. This will be a tough balancing act.

Do others get involved? While many find it difficult to believe that Hamas acted alone, that remains the official line. This has not escalated into a battle for Israel on multiple fronts. Iran has not been brought into the war, which would up the ante significantly.

While not directly part of this discussion, our increasing concern that our global adversaries understand that inflation has become an “Achilles Heel” and this will only make adversaries more aware of that.

Over the next 48 hours, we should get answers to these questions, which will help from how the markets and global economy and companies will respond (many companies with operations in Israel have faced an incredibly difficult and scary weekend, that is continuing into this week).

On markets fronts:
Oil should be higher. There is risk to shipping. There is risk to whatever Iranian oil has been making its way to the market (especially if they are implicated in any way). The Saudis could increase production to help, but how this is being viewed on social media in the region could shape their behavior significantly (the information war will be important). Our inability, unwillingness, or lack of urgency in replenishing the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is not helpful as our “insurance policy” was used and hasn’t been re-upped.

Treasury yields lower. It doesn’t matter what oil does, yields will be lower. The price of oil is not in the Fed’s control right now, but the risk of economic slowdown is. The risk of escalation and spreading the violence is real and should keep investors focused on safety. Many (including us) thought treasury yields were too high before this, so look for a push to lower yields, regardless of what oil does. Oil is a secondary factor in the rates market right now.

Stocks are a wildcard. I’ve been in the “bad news is good news” for stocks and that seemed to play out again today. I don’t know how much “bad news” stocks can take before the lower yields/higher stocks algos fail and we get a more traditional “flight to safety” like we had overnight. If things don’t escalate, stocks can continue to squeeze higher as so much negativity was priced in (while at the same time pricing in a hawkish Fed). I’d be reducing equity exposure here, still long, but this “bad news” has the risk of being really bad.

* * *

Update(1350ET): Casualties in the Gaza Strip are soaring (at over 560 dead) after a full day of very heavy, frequent airstrikes by the Israeli Air Force. For the first time Monday, Israel says it has pacified the border, with a military spokesperson announcing, "There are no terrorists crossing the fence from Gaza into Israel." The confirmed death toll among Israelis is now over 900.

"Since this morning, there have been a few encounters with terrorists. There have been none at all in the last few hours," the military spokesman said. Israel earlier announced a full "siege" of Gaza, and there are signs a ground invasion could be imminent. Hamas and Gaza militants have announced holding at least 100 hostages, but now Hamas is threatening to execute them. Netanyahu on Sunday had warned Palestinian civilians to begin clearing out, but as some observers have noted, where will they go?

According to the latest from the Times of Israel on Hamas' new threat to kill more Israelis:
The Hamas terror group is threatening to begin executing hostages in response to Israeli strikes in Gaza carried out without warnings, the spokesperson for Hamas’s Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades says, according to Gaza’s Shehab news outlet.

“From this hour, any targeting of our people in the safety of their homes, without warning, will be met with the execution of civilian hostages, which will be broadcast with video and audio,” says the spokesperson, who goes by the nom de guerre Abu Obeida.
A defense official reportedly told Knesset members in a briefing earlier in the day that Israel was not dropping dummy bombs on roofs of buildings set to be targeted, meant to warn civilians to flee.

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=rnYuDQS8
Via AP: A woman holds a photo during the 'Jewish Community Vigil' for Israel in London, Monday, Oct. 9, 2023.

Many of these hostages, foreigners among them, are believed to have been kidnapped from the Saturday music festival which had been taking place in the southern desert, near the border with Gaza.
Meanwhile more shocking footage has emerged as Hamas invaded the event and began shooting civilians at random:

New footage from the music festival in Israel

pic.twitter.com/lgPr7FiBaJ
— The Post Millennial (@TPostMillennial) October 9, 2023

* * *

Update (1100ET): Israel has confirmed its forces are now striking targets in southern Lebanon, as the conflict slides into the much-feared scenario of a two-front war... Hamas in the south, Hezbollah in the north. Interestingly, it seems that Gaza-based militants are trying to provoke Hezbollah's entry into the war, given they need the firepower and for the IDF to be bogged down in the north:
ALERT Palestinian Islamic Jihad claims Israel infiltration from Lebanon: official

ISRAELI WARPLANES ARE BOMBING SOUTHERN LEBANON.

This is a severe escalation. This came after clashes between Israeli occupation forces and unknown gunmen.

Hezbollah won’t sit and watch. Expect a retaliation. pic.twitter.com/55oD5HLeBj
— Hadi Nasrallah (@HadiNasrallah) October 9, 2023

According to CNN:
Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said in a brief statement on Monday that its helicopters are currently striking in Lebanese territory. No further details were provided.

Earlier, the IDF said a “number of armed suspects” who “infiltrated” into Israel from Lebanon were killed, and that IDF soldiers were searching the area.
The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) peacekeepers said in a statement on Monday that it has reported explosions near Al-Boustan in southwest Lebanon.

There are also reports IDF heavy armor has been seen headed to northern border with Lebanon:
Cross-border attacks are intensifying in the growing tit-for-tat:

BREAKING: Israeli army targets three Hezbollah watch towers in southern Lebanon. pic.twitter.com/TAlBAzCm92
— The Cradle (@TheCradleMedia) October 9, 2023

* * *

The total death toll among both sides as all-out war between Israel and Gaza militants enters its third day has topped 1,100 - with most of these deaths being Israeli, at an estimated 800.

Israel's defense minister has as of Monday ordered a "complete siege" of Gaza which alarmingly includes cutting off all supply of electricity, fuel, and food, but even water for a densely packed population of 3+ million people in the strip.

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Image via Fox

Yoav Gallant said, "I have given an order – Gaza will be under complete siege." He added: "We are fighting barbarians and will respond accordingly."

At the same time a statement from energy minister Israel Katz confirmed, "I instructed that the water supply from Israel to Gaza be cut off immediately."

GAZA pic.twitter.com/W9S8m1zd36
— The_Real_Fly (@The_Real_Fly) October 9, 2023

Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have reportedly retaken all the southern towns and settlements which were hit hardest by Saturday's shock invasion of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) militants from Gaza.
A fuller picture of the devastation is still emerging. Israeli authorities have confirmed recovery of 260 bodies from the site of the desert music festival which was among the first to be invaded by Hamas gunmen...

Mapping and timing the atrocities at the Nova Festival near Rei’m on Saturday morning (long thread).

Working with new drone footage, multiple sets of satellite imagery, and videos, it was possible to assemble a small idea of what happened in a small area.

Note- content warning pic.twitter.com/Y6QoOxo2Bg
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) October 9, 2023

Meanwhile, the IDF continues to pound the Gaza Strip on an unprecedented scale, with top Israeli officials increasingly voicing their approval for a ground invasion, which some say is imminent:
Israeli strikes in Gaza have killed at least 493, including dozens of children, and left 2,651 injured, according to the Palestinian Ministry of Health.

An incursion by Gaza militants of this scale has not been seen in Israel since the nation’s founding in 1948.
But if an Israeli ground assault does ensue, it will be deeply controversial inside Israel given the likely high casualties the IDF will take on (as has been the case in prior high-risk ground incursions).
There are emerging reports that Gaza-based terrorists have beheaded IDF soldiers:

Can confirm that images showing Hamas beheadings of IDF soldiers exist. Do not go searching for them.

Haven’t seen images of that magnitude since ISIS was prevalent.
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) October 8, 2023

At the same time, Hamas and PIJ terrorists are now holding some 100 Israeli hostages taken in Saturday's cross border raids.

According to Reuters, Qatar is currently seeking to mediate hostage negotiations. The Palestinian side has demanded the release of some 5,000 of their own who have been held in Israeli jails, sometimes for years.
There are believed to be Americans (or dual US-Israeli citizens) currently in captivity in Gaza:
A spokesperson for the NSC said the agency can confirm the deaths of “several” U.S. citizens, but did not provide a specific number.

“We extend our deepest condolences to the victims and to the families of all those affected, and wish those injured a speedy recovery,” the spokesperson wrote in a statement shared with The Hill.

Additional US media sources reported that so far four Americans have been confirmed killed. And later in the morning on Monday the State Department announced nine Americans have been killed.
U.S. STATE DEPT SPOKESPERSON CONFIRMS THE DEATH OF NINE AMERICANS IN ISRAEL

NEW: American citizens have been taken as hostages by Hamas according to Israel Minister for Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer.

In response to these reports, Secretary of State Blinken says the US is “working overtime.”

One person who doesn’t seem to be working overtime is Biden who… pic.twitter.com/kXU8cyDbUy
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) October 9, 2023

BBC is also reporting that at least 10 British citizens are feared dead or missing. According to Israeli officials, the numbers of Americans confirmed to be in captivity could grow as more details emerge:
Ron Dermer, Israel's minister for strategic affairs, confirmed American citizens were among those taken captive but gave no details about them or those who had been killed.

"Unfortunately, I can't," he told CNN. "We have a lot of dual citizens in Israel. I suspect there are several, but we're still trying to sort through all of all this information after this horrific surprise attack and we'll make sure to put that information out so that the loved ones of these people who were killed and who are held hostage, they know as quickly as possible."

On Sunday the Pentagon announced it is sending an aircraft carrier and warships near Israel in a "show of support" - also as Americans as well as dual passport holders and tourists scramble to get out.
Ben Gurion international airport has come under a barrage of rockets fired from the strip, disrupting all flights in and out.

BREAKING: Direct hit on Ben Gurion airport, Tel Aviv by the Palestinian resistance's missiles pic.twitter.com/doj3dIKcXt
— The Cradle (@TheCradleMedia) October 9, 2023

https://www.foxbusiness.com/video/6338787937112

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/...ting-blm-posts

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"Your Position Is Clear" - Musk Slams Terrorist-Supporting BLM Posts

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BY TYLER DURDEN

TUESDAY, OCT 10, 2023 - 08:20 PM

This is going to get awkward for a lot of virtue-signalers...

Black Lives Matter formally siding with Hamas is going to complicate the scheduled race riots in 2024. Regime is going to have to cook something else up. Or maybe Jake Tapper etc will pretend none of this happened and do propaganda for BLM again. We’ll see!
— Cernovich (@Cernovich) October 10, 2023

At least two Black Lives Matters (BLM) groups have made statements on X, formerly known as Twitter, supporting Hamas - the terrorist group responsible for the deaths of over 1,200 Israelis (including women and babies).

The first BLM group (@blmgrassroots) issued a lengthy statement proclaiming, among other things, that "when a people has been subject to decades of apartheid and unimaginable violence, their resistance must not be condemned but understood as a desperate act of self-defense." The statementdid not include any criticism of Hamas or its tactics.
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=FpFUF90O

We used a screenshot of the tweet since we suspect this will be deleted very quickly.
This should not be a surprise since Melina Abdullah, the co-director of the group, has been accused of antisemitism, according to InfluenceWatch. But, if you thought that was a little distasteful, here is what BLM's Chicago affiliate tweeted.
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=qIKpL53r

Again, we used a screenshot of the tweet since we suspect this will be deleted very quickly.
It doesn't get much clearer than that - BLM 'standing with' paragliding terrorists who killed hundreds of innocent Israeli concertgoers (as the community note makes it clear) .
Ultimately, Elon Musk - who has repeatedly been accused of anti-semitism by the Anti-Defamation League, which in turn has frequently supported BLM in the past - made it very clear how he feels about their comment...
Your position is clear
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 10, 2023

Still don't see it - maybe this tweet will help clarify things...
This is the equivalent of displaying airplanes in front of buildings post 9/11 with the caption

“We support Al-Qaeda.”
— ᴡᴏʟᴠᴇʀ (@WolverCrypto) October 10, 2023
Presumably the following companies will be demanding their money back, all $99 billion of it, and will promptly cease any and all donations to BLM-affliliated groups and issue a statement of regret for their prior support...

1. Bank of America: $18.5 million
2. BlackRock: $810 million.
3. Adidas: $120 million.
4. Amazon: $169.5 million.
5. American Express: $50 million.
6. Apple: $100 million.
7. IBM: $252 million.
8. Kellogg: $91 million.
9. Microsoft: $244.6 million.
10. PGA Tour: $100 million.
11. Warner Bros. Discovery: $115 million.
12. etc...

Source
Corporations who donated to BLM right now https://t.co/aDd8e4ny0y pic.twitter.com/BYXwD9GoKV
— Mostly Peaceful Memes (@MostlyPeacefull) October 10, 2023

Also, Jonathan Greenblatt and the Anti-Defamation League have been awkwardly quiet in their rebuke of BLM...

However, that may leave Mr.Greenblatt with a problem, given that Israel Hayom reported last year that a Fox News investigation found that the Anti-Defamation League (ADL)'s educational and "anti-bias" programs, which influence millions of American children, educators and officials, promote far-left and critical race theory (CRT) concepts including "white privilege" and "systemic racism," and promote groups such as the Women's March and BLM – despite those organizations or their leaders' virulent Jew-hating, Israel-hating and pro-Farrakhan positions.
This problem a longstanding.

Six years ago, ZOA documented that multiple ADL educational lesson plans: encouraged students to join BLM protests in Ferguson (the same protests that demanded ending Israel's existence, calling Israel an apartheid genocidal state); promoted BLM while ignoring the BLM/M4BL organizations' antisemitism and antisemitic platform; and repeated numerous BLM false claims.
The list of critiques of ADL includes:

1. ADL sought to defund and remove the tax exemptions from three pro-Israel organizations (including prominent Christian Zionist group PTNJ).
2. ADL hired an outreach director who justified anti-Israel terrorism; said Jews need to "repent for Gaza's dead"; and, after Black extremists murdered innocent Jews in Jersey City, blamed Black antisemitism on "Jewish landlords, and pawnbrokers and small merchants" and on "systemic racism" against Blacks.
3. ADL's Black History Month celebration featured an Israel-hating BDS activist.
4. After Ilhan Omar tweeted, "Israel has hypnotized the world, may Allah awaken the people and help them see the evil doings of Israel.", and gave an insulting "non-apology," claiming she reacted to Israeli "oppression," Greenblatt praised Ilhan Omar, saying: "Hats off to Rep Omar for her honest apology & commitment to a more just world."
5. ADL opposed Israel's anti-BDS law banning BDS activists from entering Israel, which was upheld by Israel's courts. Furthermore, in 2018, ADL said that Israel should allow antisemitic boycott activist, SJP-BDS hate group president and terrorism supporter Lara Alqasem to enter Israel.
6. In September 2020, ADL co-signed a full-page New York Times advertisement promoting the antisemitic Israel-bashing BLM. ADL signed just four months after BLM burned, defaced and looted Los Angeles Jewish synagogues, schools and businesses; and despite BLM/M4BL falsely accusing Israel of genocide, ethnic cleansing, training US police to murder Blacks, etc.

We look forward to Greenblatt's appearance on CNBC to clear up any confusion.
Maybe Matt Walsh was on to something...
I said from the very beginning that BLM is a terrorist organization. Now they finally admit it. https://t.co/nJ1FYGCYmS
— Matt Walsh (@MattWalshBlog) October 10, 2023
Yes, BLM is a domestic terrorist organization.


But we already knew this.
— Benny Johnson (@bennyjohnson) October 10, 2023
Remember when people would get fired from their jobs for calling BLM a terrorist organization? https://t.co/mtBAt12OGL
— Joel Berry (@JoelWBerry) October 10, 2023

I take no great joy in pointing out that most of us knew that BLM was a corrupt, grifter, toxic organization long before they showed the world their true colors today...well..i take some joy…just not “great joy”…lets call it modest joy…

— jim iuorio (@jimiuorio) October 10, 2023

* * *

Bonus BLM Tweet (from the UK)...
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=fcO5Fq6Y

* * *

And while we are at it, anyone remember this?
https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=ZtdRoB9p

Presumably, Google and its ad-services will have already contacted all BLM-affiliated groups and banned them for 'policy violations' (which we assume includes, supporting baby-killing terrorists?)
Does this mean google will un-blacklist ZH now? pic.twitter.com/jg2HfeSeq4
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 11, 2023

And now we wait for this epic SNAFU by the deep state's favorite on-demand riot organization (whose activity tends to peak 3-6 months prior to presidential elections) to force the FBI to conclude that BLM is yet another white-supremacist terrorist organization...

Hi @Aviel11,Url=https%3A%2F%2Fmedia2.locals.com%2Fimages%2Favatars%2F1178208%2F1178208_1unr35tc1c1bxns_thumb.jpeg&DryRun=0&UID=ydpjrpqdjgsrz6ci6owj7rox2yarf75u
Glenn Greenwald just posted an article!
https://mail.proton.me/api/core/v4/images?
Glenn Greenwald @ggreenwald

Oct 10, 2023 at 9:27pm

The Israel-Gaza War & US Policy Toward It

Video Transcript
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Watch the full episode here:
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Podcast: Apple - Spotify
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It's Monday, October 9.

Tonight: War between Israel and the Palestinians, both in the West Bank and Gaza, has existed for decades, sometimes actively and sometimes latently. One of the most dangerous and intense stages of this war exploded just over 48 hours ago when the group that has ruled Gaza since 2006, Hamas, invaded Israel by land, by sea, and even by air, using hang gliders armed with machine guns to fly over the border fence separating Gaza from Israel within hours. They killed hundreds of Israeli civilians, many of whom died from civilian massacres, gunning down young people at an all-night rave as it was ending or entering family homes and shooting men, women and children. At least dozens of Israelis were abducted and taken as hostages back to Gaza. Israel now places the death toll at more than 900 citizens, with more than 1700 wounded. Hamas announced that four hostages have already died in the Israeli airstrikes and has threatened to execute hostages and post the video online in response to large numbers of civilian deaths in Gaza.

Meanwhile, as has happened so many times before, Israel, the following day began bombing from the air and reducing to rubble entire buildings and towers in Gaza, the tiny strip of land that is home to 2.2 million Palestinians, the majority of whom are 18 years of age or younger, and who are physically blockaded by both Israel and Egypt from leaving that tiny strip of land. An Israeli ground invasion of Gaza is imminent. Israel's defense minister, Yoav Gallant, ordered, “a complete siege” on the Gaza Strip, saying Israeli authorities would cut electricity, and water and would block the entry of fuel. He said in a video statement: “No electricity, no food, no water, no gas. It's all closed.” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu went to X, formerly known as Twitter, earlier today, just a few hours ago, to post a video showing the Israeli Air Force bombing and destroying large high rises in Gaza City, sometimes with one bomb destroying several towers at once.

The Biden administration immediately did what American administrations and both parties have done for decades whenever Israel is involved in hostilities, namely, announce various forms of assistance to its close ally in the Middle East, including weapons and large amounts of money for Israel's intended military action. With a tiny handful of exceptions – and I mean a tiny handful –, members of both political parties in Washington vowed steadfast and unstinting support for Israel and condemned Hamas's actions, particularly those aimed at civilians.

The risk of escalation and wider regional conflict is very high and very self-evident. There have already been gunfire exchanges between the IDF and Hezbollah, the militia and political party based in southern Lebanon that has previously engaged in bloody and protracted battles with Israel. The Wall Street Journal cited anonymous sources from Hamas to claim that Iran directly participated in the planning of these attacks, though the U.S. government denies knowledge of any information confirming that obviously inflammatory claim. Israeli tourists were shot and killed in Egypt due to their nationality, and several Arab states have already firmly sided with the Palestinians and blamed Israel for these hostilities, including Qatar and Saudi Arabia, with whom Israel had been hoping to conclude a peace deal brokered by the Biden administration. This is a volatile region in the best of times, making the risk of escalation quite obvious and quite dangerous.

When it comes to U.S. political debates, there's always been a paradox, or two paradoxes, actually, when it comes to Israel. The first is that there are few debates, if there are any, that provoke as much emotion, passion, anger, conviction and absolutism among Americans as conflicts involving this foreign country. There's more space to debate almost anything of that in the U.S., including policies that have a direct effect on Americans, even American wars, than there is space to discuss and debate questions involving Israel, especially when, as is obviously true now, passions are running extremely high. The second paradox is that there is far more criticism of the Israeli government and far more debate over Israel's actions in Israel than there is in the United States. One needs only read an Israeli newspaper or listen to an Israeli news broadcast to see how much more vibrant the debates are about their own country than they are in the United States.

Unless one firmly plants oneself on one side of this war or the other, and then proceeds to unquestioningly affirm every last premise of that side by, for instance, arguing that anything and everything Palestinians do is justifiable in order to resist the occupation of the West Bank and the blockade of Gaza – even including deliberately massacring civilians –, or by arguing that anything and everything Israel does is justified in the name of stopping Palestinian attacks on their country – including mass indiscriminate bombing of civilian infrastructure – then, one is bound to anger a certain portion of one's audience.

We fully realize that delving into this topic can be a thankless task. It often is, but we also strongly believe that the audience we have attracted and cultivated does not come to the show or my journalism, expecting to always have their most closely held views, flattered and unquestioningly vindicated, but instead is not only willing but eager to sometimes have those views questioned and prodded and pushed a bit – provided it's done in a respectful, thoughtful and substantive manner. So that is what we are going to endeavor to do tonight. There is no other way. The United States is a direct participant in that region and all matters involving Israel, including this one. The potential consequences of this war are vast and grave. No matter how much one might wish to, there is no avoiding this topic, no avoiding this war. And ultimately, the only kind of journalism worth doing is one based on respect and trust for one's audience – that they seek, not full and reflexive and constant agreement, but fact-based and thoughtful analysis.

For now, welcome to a new episode of System Update, starting right now.

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Syria Launches Missiles On Golan Heights As US Begins 'Surging' Defense Aid To Israel | ZeroHedge

Syria Launches Missiles On Golan Heights As US Begins 'Surging' Defense Aid To Israel
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BY TYLER DURDEN

WEDNESDAY, OCT 11, 2023 - 04:12 AM

Update(1612ET): The Syrian Army has fired missiles toward the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights Tuesday evening (local), breaking reports indicate. The Israeli Defense Force have confirmed the attack:

This raises the risk of a broader conflict which spirals, given the earlier exchange of fire in northern Lebanon between Israel and likely Hezbollah positions. Al Jazeera senior correspondent Zeina Khodr writes on the significance of the Golan mortar fire from Syria:

Rocket from Syria lands in Israel occupied Golan Heights- it was a matter of time before a message is sent to Israel from this front … "multi front assault possible".

This came within an hour of President Biden in a speech confirming that the US will begin 'surging' defense aid to Israel.
And the Pentagon too confirmed:
A senior defense official said the Pentagon was “surging support” to its closest Middle Eastern ally in response to what U.S. officials have said are the brutal new tactics that characterized the weekend assault byHamas militants into southern Israel. With the combined death toll exceeding 1,500, Israel’s government on Monday ordered a full-scale siege of the Gaza Strip, setting the stage for what could be a prolonged and bloody offensive in the small, densely populated Palestinian enclave.
This has already begun, says Boeing:

Meanwhile, various countries have begun evacuation efforts of their citizens from Tel Aviv:
LUFTHANSA TO CONDUCT EVACUATION FLIGHTS FROM ISRAEL: SPIEGEL


* * *

Update(1310ET): The Israeli army has reportedly issued an order for citizens to evacuate the Metula settlement, which lies just along the northern border with Lebanon. This after a salvo of some 15 rockets was fired from southern Lebanon in a suspected Hezbollah operation. "In response to the launches identified from Lebanese territory toward Israeli territory, IDF soldiers are currently responding with artillery fire," regional sources report. The IDF said it intercepted several of them, while most landed in open fields. Things are steadily escalating there:
A senior Israeli officer was killed in a confrontation with militants on the frontier with Lebanon on Monday, Israel's military has confirmed.

The [Israeli] military said troops and aircraft killed two "terrorist infiltrators" who had crossed into Israeli territory. Palestinian Islamic Jihad claimed that they were its members.

Later, at least three militants from Lebanon's Hezbollah movement were killed as the military attacked sites in Lebanon in response to mortar fire.

Still, both Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah have thus far narrowly avoided a spiral into all-out war at the Israel-Lebanon border. "What’s happening here seems to be a kind of contained tension. Lebanon is not yet a war zone. However, it’s an area of operation. But it seems it’s also a space for both sides to exchange messages," an Al Jazeera’s correspondent, Ali Hashem, has observed.

Iran, meanwhile, has been on the defensive after major US media, especially the Wall Street Journal, cited US sources who alleged Tehran supported, funded and helped plan Hamas' deadly rampage across southern Israel on Saturday. There's speculation that the Iranians fear Israel's Netanyahu government could begin targeting sites inside Iran. A regional source reports Tuesday on the unprecedented softening of rhetoric from Iran's leadership, related to Hamas and Israel as follows:
Iran’s supreme leader has strongly rejected any involvement in the Hamas movement’s surprise attack on Israel. The public maneuvering, which involved Ayatollah Ali Khamenei strikingly repeating his rejection of an Iranian role three times in a 90-second span, follows controversial claims in US media that Tehran helped plan the Oct. 7 blitz.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, a high-ranking Iranian source told Amwaj.media that Khamenei’s remarks—his first since the Hamas offensive—may have been sparked by “him seeing the direction of the Israeli public diplomacy campaign.” Rejecting concerns of an impending Israeli attack as Khamenei’s underlying motive, the source said the supreme leader’s comments are “pre-emptive” as opposed to reactive.

Addressing the rare decision by Khamenei to be so vocal in his rejection of an Iranian role in the Palestinian blitz, a second senior source in Tehran told Amwaj.media, “Give me one reason why he should do otherwise.” Also speaking anonymously given the sensitivity of the matter, he continued, “Why should one give them the perfect justification they need for an attack?” At the same time, the source dismissed the notion that being so explicit in rejecting a role in the Hamas attack indicates a sense of weakness on the part of Iran.

The Pentagon has meanwhile warned both Iran and Hezbollah against jumping into the conflict in a fresh statement:
The senior US official said Iran, Hezbollah and other groups backed by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) “should think twice” before joining in the war.

“Iran-backed adversaries like Lebanese Hezbollah should not question the commitment of the US government to support the defense of Israel,” the official added.
“We believe that the folks in the region understand what those capabilities are,” the White House’s National Security Council coordinator John Kirby, a former US Navy rear admiral, told reporters Monday evening.

This as the following just came across the news wires:
US MAY DEPLOY A SECOND AIRCRAFT CARRIER NEAR ISRAEL: WSJ

While there are yet no indicators that the US will conduct anything other than a "show of support" with the naval hardware dispatched near Israel, it will certainly be in a position to conduct some level of active intervention on Israel's side if ordered by the White House:
The IDF said it had mobilized 300,000 troops and declared a full siege halting the flow of water, food and electricity into Gaza on Monday.
The arrival of the USS Ford – which is carrying an air wing and is accompanied by the guided-missile cruiser USS Normandy and four US Navy Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyers – is intended to send an unmistakable warning to Iran and the militant groups it backs throughout the region not to join in the conflict by launching their own attacks against Israel, Biden administration officials said.

The strike group led by the Ford is capable of intelligence collection and “long-range strikes,” a senior US defense official told reporters on Monday, noting its arrival signals “the United States is postured to respond to any contingencies and minimize the risk of a wider conflict.”

Republicans in Congress continue to question Biden's unfreezing of the $6 billion for Iran. Some are calling for a refreeze in light of the Hamas attack. According to The Hill:
Blackburn and other Republican senators wrote a letter to Biden dated Oct. 9 calling on him to stop the flow of the $6 billion into Iran, even though the funds are only supposed to be used for humanitarian purposes.

“Your administration claims these funds are only available for humanitarian use, but money is fungible, and there is significant risk they could be used to further efforts by Iran or Hamas against Israel,” they wrote.
“Moreover, allowing $6 billion to flow into Iran’s economy, even if the purpose is for humanitarian aid, allows the Iranian regime to reallocate even more funds to supporting terrorism,” they argued.
The White House response:

* * *

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have announced they have completely sealed the border with Gaza amid continued body recovery operations and assessment of damage. This as Israel has newly announced that over 1,000 Israelis have been killed.
The IDF and Israeli officials are also for the first time taking foreign journalists to the scenes where the armed raids out of Gaza took place on Sunday, including to Kfar Azza, a kibbutz near the border where some 70 Jewish residents were killed. The IDF has denounced the "massacre" while giving foreign press a tour of the empties out settlement.

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=d9h580pa
Israeli victims in Kfar Aza, via AFP

"It’s not a war, it’s not a battlefield, it’s a massacre," IDF Major General Itai Veruv was quoted as saying. "You see the babies, their mothers and their fathers, in their bedrooms, and in their protected rooms, and how the terrorists killed them — it’s not a war."
"It’s something that I never saw in my life," he said. "We used to imagine our grandmothers and grandfathers during the pogroms in Europe. It’s not something that we have seen in recent history."

Another one, Kibbutz Be'eri, was the gruesome scene of the recovery of at least 108 bodies, while the music festival in the desert where footage of the initial Hamas invasion was captured had at least 260 bodies.

Among the Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), the IDF said it had killed some 1,500 in Israeli territory, and these bodies are being collected too.

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=kXAjJq8Y
Gunmen went on a rampage Saturday along roads and highways in the south of Israel.

In Israel, at 1,008 people have died and over 2,600 others have been injured, but assessing total casualties and also identifying the deceased has been a long, difficult process - also under war conditions as missiles fly above. One top Netanyahu aide, Yossi Shelley, is under fire for some controversial statements to the press:
Responding to questions during an interview on Channel 12 about the government’s reaction time, Shelley said that "the party made a not insubstantial contribution to the chaos," adding "I'm not casting blame but sometimes there are cumulative conditions, this is a situation which no one planned."

Shelley said the process of identifying the fatalities and the hostages was like "standing in line at the supermarket, it doesn’t matter how many shop assistants there are, sometimes it’s impossible to deal with everyone."
On Tuesday he tried to clarify the statements amid anger from victims' families. Shelley said, "I never in any way intended to say that the partygoers contributed to the results of the tragic event. The youngsters who were celebrating, including my beloved cousin Lori who was murdered, celebrate like the people of Israel should do on their festivals."

Warning - graphic content below:


In Gaza, the death toll continues to mount amid constant Israeli airstrikes and shelling, with Al Jazeera reporting that the dead have reached 770.
While a horrific massacre by Islamic terrorists infiltrating southern Israel played out over the weekend, a massacre of mostly civilians by the overwhelming airpower of Israel's air force is ongoing in the Gaza Strip. Nearly 200,000 Gazans have been displaced at this point...

On social media, there are graphic scenes of death, violence, and suffering widely circulating.
Politico has decided to go after Elon Musk and X for lack of censorship related to some of these videos:
Videos and images of mass shootings, kidnapped civilians and soldiers and other violence linked with Hamas' attack on Israel are being widely shared on X, formerly known as Twitter, in violation of the company's own rules against inciting violence.
POLITICO's review of Elon Musk's social media platform in the wake of Hamas' attacks, which began on October 7, discovered scores of videos that allegedly showed militants murdering civilians and Israeli soldiers; viral hashtags associated with the ongoing violence that praised Hamas' activities; and social media posts that included graphic pictures of those killed and antisemitic hate speech.

However, platforms like X are in part helping people to track missing persons, or to identify the deceased, as well as in some cases their killers.

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=NE2UWcHH
Image: Times of Israel

Meanwhile, even though the situation in southern Israel is largely pacified under the IDF, Israel's military still believes some terrorist infiltrators are present, but are hiding. A search operation by Israeli forces is still active after the majority of civilian residents from communities near Gaza have been evacuated:
Hamas fighters are believed to be "still hiding" in some communities in southern Israel even after the Israeli military took back control, according to Israel Defense Forces spokesman Maj. Doron Spielman.

"We are in control of the communities, but we actually assume that there are Hamas terrorists that are still hiding in these areas, including in the road where we are now," Spielman told ABC News during an interview Monday in Sderot, Israel. "In all these communities, we've seen terrorist come out of hiding. Just yesterday, they took over an ambulance."

"We're still being very, very careful," he added. "This is a war zone with active terrorists that are operating here."
Videos have emerged showing highway shootouts between Israeli forces and Hamas which happened Saturday into Sunday:

There are also many videos documenting kidnappings which unfolded in real-time:

Hamas commandos, clearly well-armed and well prepared, filmed themselves breaching Israeli settlements and setting fire to the dwellings...

Graphic: The below shows the killing of a man who tried to flee (just off-scene)...

IDF reinforcements have continued to muster at the border. While the ground invasion has yet to start, it is expected and likely imminent, given Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu told President Biden on Sunday that "We have to go in," in reference to a ground operation. He further conceded this will be a "long and difficult war."

* * *

More on the ground coverage from local Israeli media sources...

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The Stock Market Sits On The Edge Of The End Of The World | ZeroHedge

The Stock Market Sits On The Edge Of The End Of The World

https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b.../picture-5.jpg

BY TYLER DURDEN

THURSDAY, OCT 12, 2023 - 10:50 AM

Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance
There has never been a point in history
like the one we stand on the edge of today.
It's a simple concept: the unprecedented combination of geopolitical volatility and flawed monetary policy, combined with domestic division, has never happened in the past the way that it is happening now.

Ergo, while it may sound sensational, it's actually a relatively common sense point: People should expect the world—and with it, financial markets—to be on the edge of volatility like never before.

"Really, Chris. More fear-mongering?" you'll say. "Isn't this just another sensational blog post to try to justify your bullishness on gold and bearishness on risk assets?"

You're welcome to think that way if you'd like, but I believe you'll be doing yourself a big disservice.
Right off the bat, let's examine monetary policy. Sure, rates have been at 5% before, but they haven't been there with $33 trillion in debt outstanding.
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/...25_583x159.png

In other words, while interest rates aren't at historical highs, as many of my readers pointed out in the comments of my last article, they are the highest they've been with the largest amount of debt outstanding we've ever had. This chart of U.S. debt-to-GDP helps make the point of where we stand:
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/...59_722x368.png

And it isn't enough that we face an unprecedented amount of debt-service obligations; both our monetary and fiscal policies continue to exacerbate the problem. Our government has proven it absolutely cannot cut spending and has no regard for what can only be described as its toxic and debilitating deficit, even when the nation's finances are at their most precarious.

This shot of our surplus/deficit is, to use financial jargon, f**king insane.
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/...b9_736x370.png

On top of that, we have a market that has been artificially and exponentially pumped higher through passive ETF investments, trillions of dollars of COVID liquidity, and the weaponization of the options market (Tesla, in my opinion, will be the poster boy for this assertion, if I’m correct, when the company first encounters an unavoidable piece of negative fundamental news that outruns mysterious options players constantly buying calls in the name.)

I mean, the market closed up for the 4th straight day on Wednesday, after inflation data came in above estimates (which should signal the Fed isn’t doing enough to beat inflation), after a war in the Middle East broke out (essentially doubling the potential geopolitical volatility on the horizon for the time being) and while valuations (market cap/GDP, P/E, throw a dart and pick one) remain near historic highs.
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/...56_838x426.png

You don’t think that’s the normal “market stairs up” led by legitimate bids for stocks, do you? Doesn’t something feel…off…about that?
The old adage used to be that the stock market takes the stairs up and the elevator down. Now, with the increased liquidity, the market has taken a rocket ship up—meaning that when the elevator comes down, it won't be an orderly ride down 5 floors on Central Park West. It'll be like when that Red Bull guy did the 71,500 foot jump from the stratosphere.

https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=oPdiZHog
"Stocks take the elevator down."

We've overclocked the market, monetary policy, and investor psychology in a way that we never have before. It's not just the stock market that's going parabolic; investor sentiment and the mechanics of the market that drive prices higher are, too. Both the stock market and our national debt are on the last legs of a 4 a.m. Las Vegas bender. And for those who have been in that situation (not saying that I have) you know there are only hours, if not minutes, left before you have to pay the piper.

As if this horrifying setup weren't bad enough, there are also unprecedented geopolitical headwinds. Russia and China have paired up with nations like India and South Africa to start building a consortium seeking to do business outside the Western banking system. This ball is already rolling. That should be enough to give investors concern and encourage a risk-off climate by itself. When tacked onto our current fiscal and monetary disaster, it makes the situation truly unprecedented.
Today’s article is too important to keep behind a paywall. For those who want to support my work, I’d be humbled if you subscribed. You can take 50% off for life using the coupon below: Get 50% off forever

And in the words of the Flex Tape guy, "But wait, there's more."

https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/...30_650x407.png

The world today seems closer to a third World War than at any time in recent memory, save perhaps for the Cuban Missile Crisis. Russia continues its invasion of Ukraine, creating a stark divide between Ukraine's Western allies and Russia's supporters. This isn't merely straining the United States militarily; it's exacerbating our fiscal recklessness as we funnel hundreds of billions of dollars in aid to Ukraine. The conflict is stretching both our military and financial resources thinner than they already were. It has also helped oil prices rise, which has prompted President Numbnuts to empty the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve - our nation’s stockpile of oil generally kept around for shortages and military purposes.

As if these challenges weren't enough to give one extreme pause, another war is erupting in the Middle East between Israel and Hamas. It's yet another global conflict that the United States and its allies seem hell-bent on supporting through financial and military aid. This conflict further dilutes our resources and intensifies the pressure on our already precarious fiscal situation. Saudi Arabia, who President Magoo believes is some kind of ally (see the famous photo below), has officially lent its support for Hamas.
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/...90_685x402.png

That’s right: two conflicts, both alike in dignity, both dealing in or around oil hotbeds. One with Russia, a massive exporter of oil, and another that has prompted some U.S. Senators to strike Iran’s oil refineries (after President I-Can’t-Even-Hear-The-Dinner-Bell has effectively put a lid on drilling for oil here in the U.S. while at the same time trying to make nice with Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed Bin Salman, best known for executing his nation’s own journalists and opposing gay rights).
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/...79_545x258.png

Additionally, the Israel-Hamas conflict contributes to rising divisiveness in the United States. As we approach the 2024 election, the nation is arguably as divided as it has ever been. With the far-left "woke" crowd on one side and the "Make America Great Again" right on the other, the schism in our country seems to be approaching a breaking point.

Movements like Black Lives Matter have been openly standing with Palestine following recent attacks on Israel, introducing an unexpected variable and causing many liberal Jewish people who once supported the Black Lives Matter cause to rethink their allegiance. Pro-Palestinian rallies have also unfolded across the United States.
Even U.S. Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib chose to fly the Palestinian flag outside her office after the recent events. While one can understand the idea that not all Palestinians are terrorists, one is likely to question the wisdom (or total lack thereof) of such a gesture given its timing.
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/...a5_561x354.png

Stepping back, the country appears mired in a level of social unrest I can't recall witnessing recently. While I'd like to be optimistic and believe that things will eventually improve, I can't shake the feeling that we're headed toward darker days before a reversion to equilibrium. I would love nothing more than to be utterly wrong in this assessment.

On an investment note, my belief in the value of precious metals and gold miners hasn't wavered.
My October 2023 portfolio review lays out my reasoning for owning miners, along with most of the other stocks/positions I find interesting and that I own personally.
It perplexes me that people continue to conduct their personal and financial planning as though the world isn't on the cusp of dramatic change. While I hope for a return to normalcy, the setup for sweeping changes and volatile shifts seems as palpable as it has ever been in my investing career:

1. U.S. monetary policy is as broken as it has ever been, swinging wildly from near negative rates and unlimited quantitative easing for nearly 20 years to raising rates at the fastest clip in recent history
2. Fiscal policy has done nothing to address the nation’s debt load, which is resulting in unheard of debt service obligations. In fact, our deficits appear to be accelerating as the U.S. spends wildly
3. The U.S. has effectively lowered its backup oil supply in the strategic petroleum reserve to the lowest levels in decades, increasing the risk of an oil shortage or rising prices, while encouraging military conflict with both Russia and Iran, who represent two of the world’s largest oil exporters. At the same time, the U.S. has put a lid on oil production domestically and has discouraged drilling.
4. The U.S. is now lending military aid to both Ukraine and Israel in conflicts that both have legitimate chances of spreading to other parts of the world — aid that is paid for with defense spending with cash we don’t have an need to borrow from the Chinese.
5. The U.S. economy, housing market, commercial real estate market and stock market all remain in bubble territory, near historic highs, and have yet to make any part of a meaningful drawdown that I believe is a mathematical necessity based on where interest rates are.
6. Political division in the U.S. remains at a fever pitch with an upcoming election fast approaching. Questions about election legitimacy and the bifurcation of both major political parties in the country are foreground issues that can exacerbate all of the above and — most importantly — keep our nation in a precarious state, not just financially, but morale-wise.

I've been wrong before, and I would welcome being wrong now, but I’d be remiss if I didn’t first sound the alarm at what, to me, appears to be an obvious setup for more serious volatility.
https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/...9b35_66x52.png

QTR’s Disclaimer: I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. These positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. Also, I just straight up get sh*t wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.

Wolf Street | The stories behind business, finance, and money


Acceleration of Inflation Continues, Core Services Inflation Spikes despite the Massive Health-Insurance Adjustment

by Wolf Richter • Oct 12, 2023 •

This was the last of 12 health-insurance adjustments that pushed down core CPI and core services CPI; it will swing the other way next month.
By Wolf Richter for WOLF STREET.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped by 0.40% in September from August, despite the still ongoing ridiculous monthly adjustments to the health insurance CPI that caused it to collapse by 37.3% year-over-year. Today’s CPI release is the last month with that adjustment; with the October CPI, to be released next month, the health insurance CPI will flip, adding further upward momentum to the CPI readings, instead of pushing them down.

The health insurance adjustment has caused CPI, core CPI, and core services CPI to be understated to an increasingly significant extent since October 2022, when the monthly health insurance adjustment started, one of the biggest data distortions resulting from the data chaos of the pandemic (more in a moment).
Core CPI, month-to-month accelerated to 0.32% in September from August even though it was held down by the collapse of the health insurance CPI:
https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/up...I-3mma-MOM.png

The year-over-year CPI accelerated to 3.70%, the third year-over-year acceleration in a row, after it had accelerated to 3.67% in August, and to 3.18% in July, from 2.97% in June, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics today (green in the chart below).
The year-over-year “Core” CPI, which is designed to track underlying inflation by excluding the volatile food and energy products, rose by 4.1% year-over-year in September, seriously dragged down by the 37% year-over-year plunge in the health insurance CPI due to the odious adjustments that finally ended with September.
https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/up...ll-CPI-YOY.png

Fuel prices are rising.
After a steep hard plunge in energy prices in the second half last year, the process reversed this year, and in September overall energy prices rose 1.5% from August, and nearly wiped out the year-over-year plunge that had persisted since late last year.

On a month-to-month basis, gasoline prices have been surging all year – they jumped 2.1% in September from August and turned positive year-over-year (+3.0%). Gasoline accounts for about half of the total energy CPI.

Fuel prices – gasoline, diesel, jet fuel – also make their way into consumer products that are shipped by delivery van, truck, rail, or air as are nearly all consumer products. Jet fuel also makes its way into services via air fares. These products and services are included in core CPI, which is how core CPI reacts indirectly to rising energy costs.

CPI for Energy, by CategoryMoMYoY
Overall Energy CPI1.5%-0.5%
Gasoline2.1%3.0%
Utility natural gas to home-1.9%-19.9%
Electricity service1.3%2.6%
Heating oil, propane, kerosene, firewood4.8%-5.6%

The 37% collapse of the health insurance CPI.
September (this CPI release!) was the last month of the monthly push-down adjustments to the health insurance CPI, which started with the October CPI last year. For the October CPI, to be released in November, the adjustment will swing (I discussed the gory details here).
The adjustment pushed down the health insurance CPI every month on a month-to-month basis by 3.4%-4.3%, which has now caused the year-to-year health insurance CPI to collapse by 37.3%, despite widespread and big price increases of health insurance.

A 4% month-to-month plunge, as opposed to a 1% month-to-month rise, as would be the case, represents a month-to-month swing of 5 percentage points!
The 37.3% year-over-year collapse, instead of something like a 12% increase, as would be the case, represents a swing of nearly 50 percentage points!
The more we narrow down the CPI metrics – overall CPI to core CPI to services CPI to core services CPI – the worse this adjustment distorts the narrowed-down figures.

The health insurance CPI as a price index itself (not percent change) in September collapsed to the price level of August 2018, despite big health insurance increases since then. This adjustment has understated “core CPI” and even more so “core services CPI.” Mind-bendingly nuts:
https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/up...ndex_value.png

Core Services CPI spiked month-to-month, despite collapse of health insurance CPI.
The index for core services (without energy services) accelerated to 0.57% in September from August, the biggest increase since February, and the third month in a row of acceleration, despite the odious adjustment to the CPI for health insurance that weighs so heavily in this index.
https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/up...s-MOM_3mma.png

Year-over-year, the core services CPI rose by a still red-hot 5.7%, despite the 37.3% collapse of the health insurance CPI within it, and also due to the base effect related to the surge of the index a year ago:
https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/up...rvices-yoy.png

Services CPI by category.
The table shows how hot many price increases in services are. The table is sorted by weight of each service category in the overall CPI. The CPI for medical services is the third largest item, with a weight of 6.3% in overall CPI, and over 10% in the services CPI, and it has been repressed by the collapse of the health insurance CPI within it, and turned negative year-over-year (-2.6%):
Major Services without EnergyWeight in CPIMoMYoY

Services without Energy61.3%0.6%5.7%

Owner’s equivalent of rent25.6%0.6%7.1%
Rent of primary residence7.6%0.5%7.4%
Medical care services & insurance6.3%0.3%-2.6%
Education and communication services4.8%0.1%2.5%
Food services (food away from home)4.8%0.4%6.0%
Recreation services, admission, movies, concerts, sports events2.2%0.3%0.2%
Motor vehicle insurance2.7%1.3%18.9%
Other personal services (dry-cleaning, haircuts, legal services…)1.5%0.6%6.8%
Motor vehicle maintenance & repair1.0%0.2%10.2%
Hotels, motels, etc.1.1%4.2%8.0%
Water, sewer, trash collection services1.1%0.2%5.2%
Video and audio services, cable1.0%0.2%6.3%
Airline fares0.5%0.3%-13.4%
Pet services, including veterinary0.6%0.0%7.0%
Tenants’ & Household insurance0.4%0.9%2.8%
Car and truck rental0.1%0.0%-8.6%
Postage & delivery services0.1%0.5%4.6%

The two CPIs for housing as a service (“shelter”).
“Rent of primary residence” accelerated to +0.49% for September (6.0% annualized), matching May, and both were the highest since June. There has been no slowdown at all since June, which disappoints a lot of folks, including Powell, who’d said for well over a year that rents were lagging, and that we’d soon see this slowdown back to normal levels any moment now.

What did happen was a slowdown from the 8% year-over-year range to the 6% range, and it has gotten stuck at the 6% range over the past five months.
Year-over-year, the CPI for rent increased by 7.4% (red in the chart below).

The survey follows the same large group of rental houses and apartments over time and tracks what tenants, who come and go, are actually paying in these units.
Owners’ equivalent of rent accelerated sharply to 0.56% in September from for August (6.9% annual rate), the biggest increase since February, and there has been no improvement since February.

Year-over-year, the OER index increased by 7.1% (green). This is based on what a large group of homeowners estimates their home would rent for:
https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/up...alent-rent.png

“Asking rents…” The Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) and other private-sector rent indices track “asking rents,” which are advertised rents of vacant units on the market. Because rentals don’t turn over that much, the ZORI’s spike in 2021 through mid-2022 never fully made it into the CPI indices, as not many people actually ended up paying those spiking asking rents.

In late 2022, asking rents in dollar-terms began to dip, but then began to rise again this year, and started hitting new records in dollar-terms.
Asking rents are very seasonal, though actual rents don’t show much seasonality. This time of the year is normally the slowest time for asking rents. In a number of Septembers before the pandemic, the ZORI showed actual declines from the prior month. This September, the ZORI rose 0.2%.
The chart shows the OER (green, left scale) as index values, not percent change; and the ZORI (red, right scale). The left and right axes are set so that they increase each by 50%, with the ZORI up by 47.7% since the beginning of 2017 and the OER up by 31.2%:
https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/up...-rents-YOY.png

Rent inflation vs. home-price inflation: The red line represents the OER. The purple line represents the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. The CS index lags about three months. Both lines are index values set to 100 for January 2000:
https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/up...ousing-CPI.png

Durable goods prices drift lower from nosebleed levels.
The CPI for durable goods, after blowing to astronomical zone, has been meandering lower:
Durable goods by categoryMoMYoY

Durable goods overall-0.4%-2.2%
New vehicles0.3%2.5%
Used vehicles-2.5%-8.0%
Information technology (computers, smartphones, etc.)0.3%-7.9%
Sporting goods (bicycles, equipment, etc.)0.0%-0.1%
Household furnishings (furniture, appliances, floor coverings, tools)-0.3%0.9%

New vehicles CPI rose for the second month in a row in September from August (+0.4%), and the index value set a new all-time high and was up 2.2% year-over-year.
For many years before the pandemic, the new vehicle CPI was essentially flat with some ups and downs, despite large increases of actual vehicle prices. This is the effect of “hedonic quality adjustments” to the CPIs for new and used vehicles and also other products (here’s my chart and detailed explanation of hedonic quality adjustments).
https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/up...cles-index.png

Used vehicle CPI has gyrated all over the place after the historic spike in used vehicle prices that started in 2020 and peaked at the end of 2021. The used vehicle CPI fell by 2.5% seasonally adjusted in September from August, and by 8.0% year-over-year. From the peak, it has now fallen by 12%, but it’s still up by 35% from September 2019.

Note the effects of the hedonic quality adjustments in keeping prices level in the years before the pandemic even as actual used vehicle prices rose:
https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/up..._NSA-Index.png

Food at home: price increases calmed down, prices remain very high.
Price increases of food bought at grocery stores and markets have calmed down but prices remain astronomically high, following the 24% spike during the pandemic.
The CPI for “food at home” rose by 0.1% month-to-month, and by 2.4% year-over-year, the least in over two years.
https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/up...home-index.png

Food at home by categoryMoMYoY
Overall Food at home0.1%2.4%
Cereals and cereal products0.2%3.6%
Beef and veal0.6%7.0%
Pork1.6%-1.7%
Poultry0.4%-0.4%
Fish and seafood-1.2%-1.5%
Eggs0.9%-14.5%
Dairy and related products0.1%-0.2%
Fresh fruits-0.1%0.1%
Fresh vegetables-0.4%-1.2%
Juices and nonalcoholic drinks-0.4%4.4%
Coffee0.7%1.6%
Fats and oils-0.5%2.7%
Baby food & formula2.3%9.2%
Alcoholic beverages at home0.8%2.9%

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Victor Davis Hanson: Hamas And Amoral Clarity | ZeroHedge

Victor Davis Hanson: Hamas And Amoral Clarity

https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b.../picture-5.jpg

BY TYLER DURDEN

THURSDAY, OCT 12, 2023 - 09:40 PM

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson via American Greatness,

One unexpected blowback from the medieval Hamas’s barbaric murdering of hundreds of Israeli civilians is the revelation of current global amorality.

More than 20 Harvard university identity politics groups pledged their support to the Hamas murderers—to the utter silence for days of Harvard President Claudine Gay.


https://assets.zerohedge.com/s3fs-pu...?itok=PpOe7t2A

Americans knew higher education practiced racist admission policies. It has long promoted racially segregated dorms and graduations. And de facto it has destroyed the First Amendment.
But the overt support for Hamas killers by the diversity, equity, and inclusion crowd on a lot of campuses exposes to Americans the real moral and intellectual rot in higher education.

Democratic Socialist members of the new woke Democrat Party openly expressed ecstatic support for Hamas’s bloodwork.
Their biggest fears were not dead fellow Americans or hostages, or some 1,000 butchered Jewish civilians. Instead they were fearful that righteous Israeli retaliation might destroy the Hamas death machine.

Palestinians for years fooled naïfs in Europe and the Obama and Biden administrations into sending billions of dollars into Gaza.
These monies were channeled to tunnel into Israel, to obtain a huge rocket arsenal, and to craft plans to wipe out Jews.

The Biden administration has blood on its hands.
As soon as Biden took power, he resumed massive subsidies to radical Palestinians, canceled by the prior Trump administration.
He ignored warnings from his own state Department that such fungible moneys would soon fuel Hamas terrorism.
His administration dropped sanctions against Iran, ensuring that Tehran would enjoy a multi-billion-dollar windfall to be distributed to Israel’s existential enemies—another fact well known to the Biden administration.

If the Biden administration had announced overtly that it was rabidly anti-Israel, it would be hard to imagine anything it could have done differently from its present nihilist behavior.
Biden and company quickly restarted the defunct Iran appeasement deal—a leftover from the anti-Israeli Obama administration. No surprise, they appointed radical pro-Iranian activist Robert Malley to head the negotiations.

Malley allegedly has leaked American classified documents to Iranian officials and is under investigation by the FBI. He did his best to place pro-Iranian, anti-American activists into the high echelons of the U.S. government.
Biden was intent on forcing South Korea to release to Iran $6 billion in sanctioned frozen money.
That expectation of cash ensured Iran would be reimbursed for its present terrorist arming spree.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken shamefully tweeted that Israel should settle for an immediate ceasefire. No wonder he soon withdrew his unhinged posting.

That idiocy would be the moral equivalent of an American ally in December1941 urging the U.S. to seek negotiations with imperial Japan after its surprise bombing of Pearl Harbor—to avoid a “cycle of violence.”

The Biden team has drained strategic arms stockpiles in Israel, designed to help the Jewish state in extremis.
It recklessly abandoned a multibillion-dollar arms trove in Kabul, some of which reportedly made its way from Taliban killers to the Hamas murderers.

Once the mass murdering started, the amoral clarity of our “allies” was stunning.
NATO partner Turkey openly sided with the killers. It —along with Blinken—called for a cease fire—at the moment the Hamas death squads had finished, and Israel was ready to hold Hamas to account.

Qatar, where the U.S. Central Command is based, proved little more than a Hamas front.
It offers sanctuary to the architects of Hamas killing. And Qatar ensures a safe financial pipeline to Hamas from Iran and the radical Arab world.

Some of the most vehement current supporters of the Hamas death squads were immigrants to America from the Middle East.
Oddly, they apparently had fled just such illiberal Middle East regimes to reach a tolerant, democratic, and secure United States.
Yet they now endorse the Hamas butchering of Jewish civilians. Its savagery is aimed at executing, raping, and beheading Jews, and then mutilating their bodies.

Hamas apparently hopes to shock the Israeli government into voluntarily committing suicide—in line with the ancient Hamas agenda to destroy the Jewish state.
In a strange way, this reign of death has become a touchstone, an acid test of sorts that has revealed the utter amorality of enemies abroad and quite dangerous people at home.

It is past time that Americans deal with the medieval world that was revealed this week rather than keep dreaming in the fantasy world of our government.
Americans need to stop illegal immigration and restore their southern border, while ceasing all immigration from unhinged, hostile nations.
The military must return to its deterrent role and fire its woke commissariat.

Our leaders must accept that in the last three years of the Biden administration, serial American appeasement abroad, disunity at home, and social chaos have encouraged an entire host of enemies —China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, Middle East illiberal regimes, and former friends like Turkey and Qatar.
And our enemies dream of doing to us what we just saw in Israel.

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5 Signs that Gold Will increasingly Flow to the East - GoldSwitzerland (campaign-archive.com)

5 Signs that Gold Will increasingly Flow to the East
https://goldswitzerland.com/wp-conte...erle-80x80.jpg

By Ronni Stoeferle

October 13, 2023

The reshaping of the world economy and the global (political) order is in full swing. It is a long process, the concrete outcome of which is uncertain in advance and associated with numerous imponderables. Nevertheless, there are powerful factors, such as the shift in economic, demographic and military weight, that are driving the readjustment in the (geo)political arena. And this readjustment is also reflected in the change in gold flows. They are increasingly shifting from West to East, since “Gold goes where the money is,” as James Steel pointedly put it.

The central banks of the states of the East are among the strongest buyers of gold – also within the West
This is also reflected in the continuing enthusiasm of central banks for gold, especially in non-Western countries. 2022 saw the largest purchases of gold by central banks since records began more than 70 years ago, at 1,136 tons. The first half of 2023 saw a continuation of this trend. Despite a weaker second quarter, central bank purchases in the first half of the year set a new half-year record. Central banks increased their gold reserves by a total of 378 tons from January to June. The previous half-year record from 2019 was thus slightly exceeded. China made the largest purchases, followed by Singapore, Poland, India and the Czech Republic. So even in the West, it was countries in the East that made additional purchases.

The following chart shows the extent to which institutional demand for gold has shifted to the East. It compares the cumulative gold sales of Western central banks with the cumulative gold purchases of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO or SOC) since 2001.
https://goldswitzerland.com/wp-conte...10/image-4.png

Looking at the BRICS, we also see a striking overlap, with central banks from four of the five BRICS countries – Brazil, Russia, India and China – buying a cumulative 2,932 tonnes of gold over 2010–2022.

Holdings of US Treasuries are reduced
In turn, the BRICS continue to reduce their share of the soaring US government debt. In other words, gold is becoming more and more interesting as a reserve asset because US Treasuries have been becoming less and less interesting as a currency reserve for more than a decade. The militarization of money by freezing Russia’s foreign exchange reserves just days after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February 2022 added emphasis to this process, but did not kick it off.

The BRICS now hold only 4.1 percent of all US government debt, compared with 10.4 percent in January 2012. That is a decline of more than 60 percent. The rest of the world has reduced its exposure to US government debt by much less. In January 2012, the rest of the world held 22.0 percent of all US government debt on their books; currently, they hold 19.3 percent. That is a decrease of more than 12 percent.

The East is expanding its infrastructure for gold trading
However, the East is not only stocking up on gold and mining gold itself on a large scale. China and Russia have ranked among the top 3 gold producing nations for years.

Countries such as China, the United Arab Emirates and even Russia are expanding their gold trading infrastructure. This is to establish a permanent infrastructure for the detour of gold trading from gold trading centers in the West such as London, New York and Zurich. This testifies to the changing understanding of roles: The East increasingly no longer sees itself as a customer of Western infrastructures, but offers the infrastructure itself.

Key developments include:

1. SGE & SFO NRA: Cooperation between the Chinese and Russian gold markets

For some time now, China and Russia have been working hard to link their gold markets through cooperation between the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) and the Russian financial authority, the National Financial Association (NFA). The NFA is a Russian professional association representing the entire Russian financial sector, including the Russian precious metals market.

In the face of Western sanctions, Russian gold exports to China have already surged since mid-2022. As three Russian banks – VTB, Sberbank and Otkritie – are already members of the SGE International Board of the SGE, which was founded in 2014, this cooperation between the gold markets of Russia and China is likely to intensify in the future.

1. Memberships in gold-related institutions

As gold flows from west to east and the importance of eastern gold markets increases, these markets will also have greater representation and influence in the global institutions that represent the gold market, such as the LBMA and the World Gold Council (WGC).
In 2009, only six Chinese refineries were on the LBMA’s Good Delivery List, but now there are thirteen. While just 15 years ago there was only one regular (full) member of the LBMA from China, the Bank of China, there are now seven. China’s growing influence is also reflected in the World Gold Council. In February 2009, only one Chinese gold producer was a member of the WGC; now there are four.

1. India International Bullion Exchange (IIBX)

In addition to its sophisticated OTC gold trading market, India has also established a trading infrastructure for gold futures contracts on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India Limited (MCX). In July 2022, the India International Bullion Exchange (IIBX), supported by the Indian government, was officially opened for trading spot gold contracts backed by physical metal. IIBX is located in a special economic zone in GIFT City in the Indian state of Gujarat, and the gold underlying the contracts is stored there. One goal of IIBX is to allow qualified buyers to import gold directly into India without the need for banks or authorized agencies. So far, however, trading volumes have been minimal.

1. Establishment of a Moscow World Standard

At the end of February 2022, when sanctions against Russia were imposed by the West immediately after the start of the Ukraine war, the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) excluded the three Russian banks VTB, Sovkombank and Otkritie. A few days later, the LBMA removed all six Russian precious metals refiners from the LBMA Good Delivery List and the CME Group followed suit, removing the same refiners from the list of approved COMEX refiners.

As a result, Moscow announced in July 2022 that a new infrastructure for precious metals trading independent of the LBMA and COMEX would be established. According to Moscow, this is intended to break the supremacy of London and New York in global precious metals pricing. This proposal calls for the introduction of a Moscow World Standard (MWS) for precious metals trading, similar to the LBMA’s Good Delivery List, the establishment of a new international precious metals exchange in Moscow based on the MWS, the Moscow International Precious Metals Exchange, and the creation of a new gold price fixing based on the MWS so as to establish gold prices and reference prices different from those of the LBMA and COMEX.

Private gold demand shifts to the east
EAST’S increased interest in gold is also evident in the non-governmental sector. Chinese consumer demand, for example, increased from 292.6 tons to 824.9 tons (2022) since the turn of the millennium. This is an increase of 181%. Annual consumer demand in India has also increased since the turn of the millennium, albeit from an already high level in 2000. China and India, which together accounted for only 28.7% of consumer demand in 2000, account for almost half of global consumer demand (48.4%) in 2022 and together acquired 1,600 tons of gold last year.

Consumer Demand for Gold – 2000 vs. 2022
2000% of Global Demand2022% of Global Demand2022 vs. 2000
in Tonnes2022 vs.
2000 in %
India723.020.4%774.023.4%50.07.0%
China292.68.3%824.925%532.3181.9%
Japan105.13.0%4.30.1%-100.8-95.9%
Middle East457.912.9%268.28.1%-189.7-41.4%
Türkiye177.45.0%121.53.7%-55.9-31.5%
United States368.510.4%256.67.8%-111.9-30.4%
France19.00.5%19.90.6%0.94.5%
Germany15.60.4%196.45.9%180.81,159%
Italy92.12.6%17.80.5%-74.3-80.6%
UK75.02.1%35.61.1%-39.4-52.5%
Rest of Europe142.44.0%115.13.5%-27.3-19.2%
Other1,076.030.4%669.120.3%-406.9-37.8%

Global Demand3,544.6100.0%3,303.3100.0%-241.3-6.8%
Source: World Gold Council, Incrementum AG
Recent developments point in the same direction. In the first eight months of the current year, Asian gold ETFs increased their holdings by 7.7%, while North America and Europe recorded outflows of 2.3% and 6.1%, respectively. Significantly, in the bars and coins demand segment, Turkey and Iran replaced Germany and Switzerland in the top 5 in the first half of the year. China now leads this sub-segment of gold demand – in the first half of 2022, Germany was still in the lead – followed by Turkey, the US, India and Iran. This is because while demand for bars and coins in Turkey shot up from 9.5 tons to 47.6 tons in the second quarter of 2023, it fell by around three quarters in Germany.

The price of gold in currencies of the East has increased significantly
As of the end of September, gold was 14.6% higher in Indian rupees than at the beginning of 2022, 18.0% higher in Chinese renminbi, 34.3% higher in Russian rubles, 22.1% higher in South African rand (all left-hand side) and 114.0% higher in Turkish lira (right-hand side). Gold thus impressively demonstrates its value-preserving properties in difficult (geo)political and macroeconomic situations in these countries.
https://goldswitzerland.com/wp-conte...10/image-5.png

The significantly increased premium on the gold price in China since July is an unmistakable sign that there is a structural shortage of gold in the Chinese market and thus an expression of the strong demand for gold in the Middle Kingdom, which is struggling with profound economic problems.

Conclusion
This shift in demand from West to East can be observed not only among governments or government-related entities, but also among institutional and private investors. Gold is flowing to where it is most valued and where economic prosperity and savings rates have increased. In the medium term, the shift in demand should therefore find support from the higher growth prospects in Asia and the Middle East. “Ohne Geld, ka Musi” (“Without money, no music”) – this is how the vernacular formulates this economic truism in German. And as the IMF’s most recent economic growth forecast indicates, the sub-region of emerging and developing Asia will grow at a projected 5.2% this year and 4.8% next year, while the West will grow much less strongly. This will also lead to a shift in influence on pricing from West to East.

Tags: Currency Debasement Debt Debt Implosion Gold Hyperinflation Inflation Money Printing Stock Market Bubble
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