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Technical analysts are very confused

  • #21
  • Jun 8, 2007 4:30am Jun 8, 2007 4:30am
Quoting StockKJay
technical analysis should never be about predicting. Instead, giving guidelines as to how to react to what is already occuring.
THANK YOU!

I have been saying that to newcomers for ages: guys, dont try to predict... just try to react quickly and diligently. Very few understand that unfortunately
  • #22
  • Jun 8, 2007 4:57am Jun 8, 2007 4:57am
Quoting bluebuddha
As most people have already said, analysis is moving the odds in your favor. Those who say they can pinpoint exactly what the market will do tomorrow or next week are probably full of sh*t anyway, as most professional traders don't know if the market will definitely go in their direction the next day.


Yes... weatherman do in fact say this, and yet everyone listens to them... right? I mean, when was the last time you had an accurate forecast for the coming weekend? And when they do say "tomorrow will be rain", notice they say something like "70% chance of rain".

it better not rain this weekend cause i am planning on golfing.....

i hope everyone else had a good last two days of trading...i pocketed well over 400pips trading eur/usd and gbp/usd the last 48 hours....
  • #23
  • Jun 8, 2007 7:10am Jun 8, 2007 7:10am
Quoting iandekoker
i disagree completly...if you start trading u have a 100% chance of success....i have never in my life have a loosing trade...at it is all contributed to my money management. i buy when the price is low and sell when the price is high...some trades are closed within minutes...others take hours...some take day...some weeks...some months....but i never gear higher than 1:5

i have been trading live for almost a year now...and never had one loosing trade...while i make around 800-1000pips a month playing eur/usd and gbp/usd
What has been your worse drawdown in any given trade before recovery.
  • #24
  • Jun 8, 2007 8:33am Jun 8, 2007 8:33am
[quote=iandekoker;1460393] BECAUSE NOBODY HAS CONTROL OVER THE MARKET. Nobody knows what the market is gonna do. (That is why some use indicators. And the most posts/discussions are found in the Trading System categorie. Everyone is looking for a system that can predict the market)

Oh yes. We always know what the market is going to do. It always goes against the crowd.

This is what I see on cable´s sentiment chart of the last few days:
May 23: strongly bearish
May 29: " bullish
June 4: " Bearish
June 7. " Bullish
Johann Channels and cycles are everything
  • #25
  • Jun 8, 2007 11:11am Jun 8, 2007 11:11am
Lao Tzu, a 5th century BC Chinese philosopher said "Those who have knowledge don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge."
  • #26
  • Jun 8, 2007 11:29am Jun 8, 2007 11:29am
Wow, somwone has had a year and a half without a losing trade, must have a billion dollar account by now.
  • #27
  • Jun 8, 2007 12:41pm Jun 8, 2007 12:41pm
Quoting clockwork71
Wow, somwone has had a year and a half without a losing trade, must have a billion dollar account by now.
Actually, I know a futures trader who traded for a year and a half without a loss. However, he only placed roughly thirty trades in that amount of time. The way he put it, "I can trade by newspaper if I have to."
  • #28
  • Jun 8, 2007 5:22pm Jun 8, 2007 5:22pm
True, and in thoery, you could have bought cable a year ago, and still have that thing open, and no loss.
  • #29
  • Edited 6:02pm Jun 8, 2007 5:42pm | Edited 6:02pm
I have never understood technical analysis content why they wast their time.

It this simple if you think the Eur going to X price just buy/sell it and buy doing this we'll realy know what the analysis thinks.

who the hell is paying them to come up with all this crap, or better yet who is buying this crap so they can even get paid to write it in the first place.

Don't get me wrong I don't mind reading a few good news articles but technical analysis forecast drives me up the wall.
  • #30
  • Jun 8, 2007 5:43pm Jun 8, 2007 5:43pm
Quoting philmcgrew
Lao Tzu, a 5th century BC Chinese philosopher said "Those who have knowledge don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge."
Good one
  • #31
  • Jun 8, 2007 5:55pm Jun 8, 2007 5:55pm
Quoting iandekoker
Is it just me or have u also read the some so called "experts" do technical analysis on a daily basis. I find their analysis very entertaining. Maybe they think they are smart and market readers, but in my humble opinion they only show their ignorance and state the obvious. BECAUSE NOBODY HAS CONTROL OVER THE MARKET. Nobody knows what the market is gonna do. (That is why some use indicators. And the most posts/discussions are found in the Trading System categorie. Everyone is looking for a system that can predict the market)

In short all the technical analysis are saying is: "The Eur/Usd might trade up, but then again it might also trade down."

That is like saying: "It might rain tomorrow, but then again it might not rain tomorrow"

Please correct me if i am simplifying this or overlooking some very important calculations/formulas/guessing


Yeah your wrong!


You can't calculate and you have no basic fundamental understanding.

Nothing to do with the weather, do some homework and it might become less foggy.

Sorry, but a very poor assumption.
  • #32
  • Jun 8, 2007 7:26pm Jun 8, 2007 7:26pm
Quoting turbokaos
I have never understood technical analysis content why they wast their time.

It this simple if you think the Eur going to X price just buy/sell it and buy doing this we'll realy know what the analysis thinks.

who the hell is paying them to come up with all this crap, or better yet who is buying this crap so they can even get paid to write it in the first place.

Don't get me wrong I don't mind reading a few good news articles but technical analysis forecast drives me up the wall.
If technical analysis forecasts drives you up the wall, then don't listen to it or read it. It is as simple as that. The problem is not with Technical Analysis or any other method, the problem lies inside traders themselves. Please read "Market Wizards", you will fund a bunch of successful traders using completely different strategies and analysis methods.


If you think that technical analysis is a waste of time, then why waste your time reading it. But let me tell you, do you know why you actually waste your time reading it? Because everyone is trying very hard to find the brilliant analysis methodology which will reveal to him/her where is the market going to move next and based on this he/she will wither buy/cover or sell/short. This is why people who don't believe in technical analysis read technical analysis.

A final note, blaming technical analysis is no better than blaming the market for losses. A good trader must have the courage to blame himself and only himself for his trading losses and not anyone else or any method.

A quick example, I experienced a bad loss today in the gold market. I have been short gold for around a month and I was having a target in mind to cover my position. Today, I was re-assuring my analysis and found that gold has a potential support at $660 while gold was trading at $661-$663. I went into a confusion as I am having a meeting for the whole day and won't be able to watch the market and at the same time, my target is still far away. So I decided to play it safe and book my profits to prevent any end of week surprises against my position. So I covered the short at the $660. 10 minutes later I told myself, if $660 is a good support and the re-analysis is saying that the next 2 weeks are going to be sideways between $660 and $680, why not reverse the position and take those $15-$20 points in my pocket? Sounds like a good deal with a stop loss of around $7. So I initiated a long position at $660.10. I then entered my stop and limit orders and left to my meeting.

Later when I came back and astonishingly, I found gold down by around $13 with a low for the day below my original target by around $1.4. Of course my stop got hit. Can you imagine the feeling you might get. I was short, reversed and lost on the trade. I wasted the original short position potential profit and turned it into a loss. Two bullets in the head. Whom did I blame? the market? Technical Analysis? My mother? The meeting? Of course I blamed no one but myself. I blamed myself for being an idiot to reverse the position in the first place and going with the low probability scenario to take $15-$20 after making around $40 from my original high probability short. And I blamed myself for being another idiot for covering my short position earlier before the initially set target. I wouldn't have blamed myself if I had covered my position $2 or $3 above my target, but I covered it $10 above my target which is a lot of money wasted and worse, lost. But at the end of the day, I just blamed myself for the mistake. Of course I was wise enough to play it safe and the magnitude of the loss was negligible compared to the original profit since the short was initiated, but excellence requires discipline and minimizing idiot actions. You won't be able to be successful in the markets if you keep doing the same mistake twice. There are hundreds of mistakes to be done while trading the markets, if you do each one of them twice, you will go broke before you know how much mistakes you haven't made for the first time are still left.

Blaming others, either people or techniques don't bring success..


Thanks,

Nader
  • #33
  • Jun 9, 2007 2:27am Jun 9, 2007 2:27am
[quote=narafa;1462363]
" blaming technical analysis is no better than blaming the market for losses. A good trader must have the courage to blame himself and only himself for his trading losses"


Sorry about your loss, but i totally agree with your statement. Furthermore, i believe one should be open minded and not discount ideas so quickly, as we are the only losers when we do that. There is much to learn out there, and i believe one can learn something from everyone. I also look at mistakes as valuable lessons (i'm just a slow learner ), with silver linings, perhaps this mistake will prevent us from doing a bigger one in the future, who knows?..and perhaps the way one reacts to their mistakes is what makes a good trader even better.
Nader, u r too good to be on the losing side for long..
happy pippin all
  • #34
  • Jun 9, 2007 4:12am Jun 9, 2007 4:12am
Quoting vlazaf
What has been your worse drawdown in any given trade before recovery.

on gbp/usd trade went 200 pips against me...and only after 2 months did i close it with a 100 pips profit on friday 8 june
  • #35
  • Jun 9, 2007 4:13am Jun 9, 2007 4:13am
Quoting philmcgrew
Lao Tzu, a 5th century BC Chinese philosopher said "Those who have knowledge don't predict. Those who predict, don't have knowledge."

brilliant quote....i love it....
  • #36
  • Jun 9, 2007 4:19am Jun 9, 2007 4:19am
Quoting clockwork71
Wow, somwone has had a year and a half without a losing trade, must have a billion dollar account by now.

that is a very uncalled for statement. maybe you should have the decency to ask me how i do it. and maybe you can learn something. but if bashing is your style then i suggest you move on to the "Trading System" topics and bash the people there.
  • #37
  • Jun 9, 2007 4:19am Jun 9, 2007 4:19am
Quoting iandekoker
Is it just me or have u also read the some so called "experts" do technical analysis on a daily basis. I find their analysis very entertaining. Maybe they think they are smart and market readers, but in my humble opinion they only show their ignorance and state the obvious. BECAUSE NOBODY HAS CONTROL OVER THE MARKET. Nobody knows what the market is gonna do. (That is why some use indicators. And the most posts/discussions are found in the Trading System categorie. Everyone is looking for a system that can predict the market)

In short all the technical analysis are saying is: "The Eur/Usd might trade up, but then again it might also trade down."

That is like saying: "It might rain tomorrow, but then again it might not rain tomorrow"

Please correct me if i am simplifying this or overlooking some very important calculations/formulas/guessing

iandekoker:

My understanding is that economic/political decisions move the markets.
Thus central to the market direction we see, is the fundamentals.
No bank or political entity has complete control on a global scale.
Therefore, even these do not always know which way the markets
will go. The "experts" of whom you refer much less so.

However, there are experienced, successful traders who know
the significance behind the fundamentals and how they interrelate
to sectors of the economy and currency markets. Having gained knowledge
through experience, these ones merely use chosen indicators in
conjunction with their broader based knowledge to accomplish their trading
objectives. Indicators are thus used by them, if at all, as an adjunct not as a
predictor or prime mover. I would like to see more of the experienced traders
here explain these fundamental correlations.







  • #38
  • Jun 9, 2007 4:22am Jun 9, 2007 4:22am
Quoting turbokaos
I have never understood technical analysis content why they wast their time.

It this simple if you think the Eur going to X price just buy/sell it and buy doing this we'll realy know what the analysis thinks.

who the hell is paying them to come up with all this crap, or better yet who is buying this crap so they can even get paid to write it in the first place.

Don't get me wrong I don't mind reading a few good news articles but technical analysis forecast drives me up the wall.

i am watching CNBC and Bloomberg every day and for every one technical analyst that says the eur/usd is going up, you will find one that says the eur/usd is going down....so where does it leave us???lol
  • #39
  • Jun 9, 2007 4:24am Jun 9, 2007 4:24am
Quoting top banana
Yeah your wrong!


You can't calculate and you have no basic fundamental understanding.

Nothing to do with the weather, do some homework and it might become less foggy.

Sorry, but a very poor assumption.
Please enligthen me then. I would love to learn more about calculations and fundamental understanding from you.
  • #40
  • Jun 9, 2007 4:32am Jun 9, 2007 4:32am
Quoting narafa
If technical analysis forecasts drives you up the wall, then don't listen to it or read it. It is as simple as that. The problem is not with Technical Analysis or any other method, the problem lies inside traders themselves. Please read "Market Wizards", you will fund a bunch of successful traders using completely different strategies and analysis methods.


If you think that technical analysis is a waste of time, then why waste your time reading it. But let me tell you, do you know why you actually waste your time reading it? Because everyone is trying very hard to find the brilliant analysis methodology which will reveal to him/her where is the market going to move next and based on this he/she will wither buy/cover or sell/short. This is why people who don't believe in technical analysis read technical analysis.

A final note, blaming technical analysis is no better than blaming the market for losses. A good trader must have the courage to blame himself and only himself for his trading losses and not anyone else or any method.

A quick example, I experienced a bad loss today in the gold market. I have been short gold for around a month and I was having a target in mind to cover my position. Today, I was re-assuring my analysis and found that gold has a potential support at $660 while gold was trading at $661-$663. I went into a confusion as I am having a meeting for the whole day and won't be able to watch the market and at the same time, my target is still far away. So I decided to play it safe and book my profits to prevent any end of week surprises against my position. So I covered the short at the $660. 10 minutes later I told myself, if $660 is a good support and the re-analysis is saying that the next 2 weeks are going to be sideways between $660 and $680, why not reverse the position and take those $15-$20 points in my pocket? Sounds like a good deal with a stop loss of around $7. So I initiated a long position at $660.10. I then entered my stop and limit orders and left to my meeting.

Later when I came back and astonishingly, I found gold down by around $13 with a low for the day below my original target by around $1.4. Of course my stop got hit. Can you imagine the feeling you might get. I was short, reversed and lost on the trade. I wasted the original short position potential profit and turned it into a loss. Two bullets in the head. Whom did I blame? the market? Technical Analysis? My mother? The meeting? Of course I blamed no one but myself. I blamed myself for being an idiot to reverse the position in the first place and going with the low probability scenario to take $15-$20 after making around $40 from my original high probability short. And I blamed myself for being another idiot for covering my short position earlier before the initially set target. I wouldn't have blamed myself if I had covered my position $2 or $3 above my target, but I covered it $10 above my target which is a lot of money wasted and worse, lost. But at the end of the day, I just blamed myself for the mistake. Of course I was wise enough to play it safe and the magnitude of the loss was negligible compared to the original profit since the short was initiated, but excellence requires discipline and minimizing idiot actions. You won't be able to be successful in the markets if you keep doing the same mistake twice. There are hundreds of mistakes to be done while trading the markets, if you do each one of them twice, you will go broke before you know how much mistakes you haven't made for the first time are still left.

Blaming others, either people or techniques don't bring success..


Thanks,

Nader

I am reading technical analyses while i wait for my trades to close. Some of my trades take 2 months or more to close. So u can see i have lots of time on hand...lol

i am totally NOT into trading systems. I buy when the price is low and sell when the price is high. Easy as that.

I agree a trader can only blame himself if he looses a trade.

ouch on the double loss on friday. Hope you make it up again.

ps....what do u think of the inverse relationship between gold and the usd?
that is one of the fundamentals that i kinda believe....when usd is weak then gold trades higher...and i can understand the logic behind it....gold is always a safe haven....
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