Morning Briefing

12 Oct 23. 0835 IST or 0305 GMT or 2305 EST

Good Morning!

Dollar Index and Euro may test 105.50 and 1.0650 from where a possible near term reversal could be seen. Aussie and Pound may hold and reverse from resistances near 0.6450 and 1.2350 respectively. EURJPY has broken above 158 and could rise towards 159-160 if it manages to sustain above 158.70. USDJPY has support at 148 which if holds can take it towards 150. USDRUB may trade within 95-102.50. EURINR could dip towards 88 or lower while below immediate resistance at 88.50. USDINR needs to break on either side of the 83.30-83.00 zone to give clarity on further direction. On the data releases, US CPI will be important to watch tonight.

The US Treasury yields have declined further and are on a corrective fall. There is room for the yields to come down further from here. The US CPI data release today will be very important to watch. A weak inflation number can drag the yields further lower. The German yields are also coming down in line with our expectation and can fall more. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI can extend their corrective fall in the coming sessions.

Dow Jones is stuck between 33600 and 33900 over the last couple of days. DAX continues to rise and has scope to test 15650-15700 in the near term. Nifty and Nikkei remain bullish for the near term. Shanghai continue to look mixed.

Crude prices have declined sharply and look bearish to fall further from here. Gold and Silver are on their way to test key resistance as expected. The outcome of US CPI data today will decide if Gold and Silver will break above their resistance or not. Copper and Natural gas may trade sideways within 3.70-3.55 and 3.2-3.5 range respectively for some time.

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13 Oct 23. 0837 IST or 0307 GMT or 2307 EST

Good Morning!

Lower US CPI release yesterday aided a rise in the US Dollar. Dollar Index and Euro may now trade within 105.50-107 and 1.0650-1.05 in the near term. Aussie and Pound have fallen sharply from respective resistances and could remain raged within 0.6450-0.63 and 1.2350-1.21 respectively in the coming week where the mentioned upper and lower levels are decent resistances and supports. EURJPY trades around 158, unable to sustain the rise seen yesterday. USDJPY has support at 148 above which view is bullish to 150. USDRUB may trade within 95-101/102.50. EURINR could trade within 87.50-88.50 while USDINR may continue trade within 83.00-83.30 for a few more sessions.

The US Treasury yields have risen back sharply as the inflation data came in better than the market expectation. However, the inflation numbers were lower than the previous reading. The US Headline CPI rose 3.69% (YoY) and the Core CPI (4.13%) in September. Both were down from their previous month reading of 3.71%, 4.39% respectively. The Treasury will have to sustain this bounce in order to rise further and negate a fall back. The German yields have also risen but need to get a follow-through rise from here to move higher and avoid falling further. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have dipped further and have room to fall further.

Dow Jones and DAX have to rise past 33900 and 15650-15700 to avoid a fall back. Nifty has dipped slightly but bias will remain bullish while above the support at 19600. Nikkei has scope to target its resistance before a corrective dip can be seen. Shanghai continue to look mixed.

Brent has bounced back a bit but while below the resistance at $88 bias will remain bearish for the near term. WTI remains subdued and has scope to fall further from here. Gold and Silver have come down from their resistance levels after the release of higher than expected US CPI data for Sep-23. Copper and Natural gas have too declined within their 3.70-3.55 and 3.2-3.5 range.

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16 Oct 23. 0858 IST or 0328 GMT or 2328 EST

Good Morning!

Dollar Index and Euro may trade within 105-107 and 1.06-1.05 in the near term. Aussie and Pound have bounced slightly but may soon resume downtrend by the end of this week. EURJPY is bearish while below 158. USDCNY can slowly inch higher towards 7.35. USDJPY can trade within 150-148 while USDRUB may trade within 95-101/102.50. EURINR and USDINR may continue trade within 88-87 and 83.10/15-83.30 for a few more sessions.

The US Treasury yields have to sustain above their immediate support to move up again and avoid more fall. The German yields have room to fall further from here before reversing higher again. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI can bounce back in the coming days if they manage to sustain above their immediate support.

Dow Jones continues its struggle to breach 33900 decisively. DAX has come down sharply and looks vulnerable to test its immediate support. Nifty is bullish while above the support at 19600. Nikkei has fallen back failing to rise past 32500. Need to see if Nikkei holds above the support at 31500 or not. Shanghai has declined but the downside seems limited to 3050.

Crude prices rose sharply Last Friday due to the geopolitical tension between Israel-Hamas. There are concerns that the Israel-Hamas conflict may have an impact on the region's oil production. Gold and Silver too have surged amid the geopolitical tensions but have key immediate resistance which may hold and produce a reversal from there. Copper has risen back a bit but could face rejections from 3.62/3.63. Natural gas can fall towards 3.10/3.00.

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17 Oct 23. 0841 IST or 0311 GMT or 2311 EST

Good Morning!

Forex pairs seem to be stable just now without much volatility. Dollar Index and Euro continue to trade within 105-106.50 and 1.06-1.05 while USDJPY, Aussie and Pound could attempt to rise towards the upper end of the mentioned ranges of 148-150, 0.63-0.64 and 1.2250-1.21 before falling from there. EURJPY is bearish while below 158. USDCNY continues to slowly rise towards 7.35. USDRUB may trade within 96-101/102.50. EURINR and USDINR may continue trade within 88-87 and 83.10/15-83.30. We warn caution on the USDINR which could be preparing for a sharp rise above 83.30 soon.

The US Treasury yields have risen and are likely to move further higher from here. The German yields have also moved up. But resistances are coming up for them which have to be broken to move higher and avoid a fall back. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are inching up. The supports are holding well, and they can move up further from here.

Dow Jones has risen above 33900 and can now move further up to 34300-34400. DAX has risen back but needs a follow through rise to move up towards 15500. Nifty is bullish while above the support at 19600. Nikkei has bounced back from the support at 31500. Outlook is bullish while above 31500. Shanghai remains subdued but the downside seems limited to 3050.

Crude prices have fallen back failing to break above their immediate resistance. Gold, Silver and Copper outlook is bearish for the near term. Natural gas continues to dip but downside could be limited to 3.0.

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18 Oct 23. 0855 IST or 0325 GMT or 2325 EST

Good Morning!

Dollar Index and Euro continue to trade within 105-106.50 and 1.06-1.05 while USDJPY and Aussie could attempt to rise towards the upper end of the mentioned ranges of 148-150 and 0.63-0.64 before falling from there. Pound has started to dip from 1.2220 which if holds can be bearish for the currency in the next few sessions. EURJPY has risen well and can test resistance at 158.50 from where a decline looks possible. USDCNY is finding it difficult to sustain above 7.3150 and hence could see some near term trade within 7.28-7.3150. USDRUB may trade within 96-100. EURINR has risen above 88 and needs to sustain the rise to head towards 88.50, else can be bearish for a fall to 87.50 soon. We are cautious on USDINR to see a breakout above 83.30 soon rising towards 83.40/50. Till then it can range within 83.30-83.20.

The US Treasury yields have surged and are coming closer to their key intermediate resistances. A strong break above the upcoming resistances can trigger more rise. The German yields have also risen sharply. A strong follow-through rise from here can take them further higher. The 10Yr GoI is holding well above its support and keeps alive the chances of further rise from here. The 5Yr is also holding above its support but could remain vulnerable to fall if it fails to bounce strongly from current levels.

Dow Jones has come down whereas Nifty lacks strength to move up above 19850 but while above the support at 33800-33700 (Dow) and 19600 (Nifty), the outlook will remain bullish. DAX needs a strong rise above 15350 to clear the path for further upside. Nikkei and Shanghai are likely to be range bound for some time.

Commodities have risen amid the Israel and Gaza war conflict.Crude prices have risen back to levels above $91 (Brent) and $87 (WTI) respectively and may look to rise further from here. Gold and Silver have broken above their crucial resistance at 1950 and 23 respectively and while this break sustains, outlook is bullish to see further highs in the near term. Copper has bounced back from the support at 3.53 and looks bullish to rise towards 3.70. Natural gas has bounced back as the support at 3.0 has held well.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

19 Oct 23. 0844 IST or 0314 GMT or 2314 EST

Good Morning!

Dollar Index can rise towards 107 while Euro has scope to fall to 1.05 or lower. EURJPY has declined from resistance at 158.50 and looks bearish for a fall to 157 while USDJPY needs to break above 150 to move higher else can decline to 148 again. Aussie and Pound look bearish towards 0.62 and 1.21 respectively. USDCNY can see a slow rise towards 7.35. USDRUB may trade within 96-100. EURINR has fallen below 88 and head towards 87.50-87.00. We remain cautious on USDINR to see a breakout above 83.30 soon rising towards 83.40/50. Till then it can range between 83.30-83.20.

The US Treasury and the German yields continue to move up sharply. The outlook is bullish, and both the yields can rise further in the coming days. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI can oscillate in a sideways range for some time. A breakout of the range will determine the next move.

Major equities have fallen. Dow Jones and Nifty have declined below 33700 and 19700 but have supports at 33400 and 19600. Need to see if the support holds or not. DAX, Nikkei and Shanghai have fallen breaking below their support levels and look vulnerable to come down further in the near term.

Brent have come down after testing a high of $93 but downside seems limited to $90-89 which will keep our bullish view intact for a further rise on the upside. WTI lacks strength to rise above $88 but outlook remain bullish to see an eventual break above $88 and rise towards $90 or higher. Gold and Silver outlook remains bullish for the near term. Copper and Natural gas is to be range bound for a while.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

20 Oct 23. 0853 IST or 0323 GMT or 2323 EST

Good Morning!

FED suggested an extended pause in the interest rates. The Dollar Index trades above 106 can rise towards 107 or higher while Euro is headed towards resistance at 1.06 and could face a decline soon. EURJPY continues to trade within 157-159 region. USDJPY needs to break above 150 to rise towards 150.50-151. USDCNY has sustained above 7.30 and can continue to rise towards 7.32 +. Pound can rise towards 1.22 while Aussie can test 0.6280 on the downside. USDRUB can rise towards 99-100 while above 96 else can show signs of decline in case of a fall below 96 if seen in the near term. USDINR has shown a dip to 83.08 on the NDF markets overnight. Could that indicate a possible decline from resistance at 83.30 towards support at 83.00? Could possibly be so in today's session. In that case the expected break on the upside may not happen just now.

The US Treasury and the German yields remain bullish and are continuing to move up in line with our expectation. There is room for them to rise more. Jerome Powell in a speech yesterday reiterated to maintain tight policy until the central bank reaches its inflation target. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are moving up within their respective range. They are likely to remain in the range for some time.

Dow Jones, DAX and Nikkei continues to fall and remain bearish to fall further. Nifty can test 19450-19400 following the weakness in the global markets. Shanghai came down towards 2985 as expected and is bouncing back from there.

Brent and WTI have risen well as expected but needs to rise past $94-95 and $90 respectively to clear path for further upside. Gold and Silver continues to rise and remain bullish for the near term. Copper looks mixed and may remain range bound for some time. Natural gas has broken below the crucial support at 3.00 and looks vulnerable to fall more from here.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

23 Oct 23. 0853 IST or 0323 GMT or 2323 EST

Good Morning!

The Dollar Index may continue trade within the narrow region of 106-106.7. Euro has a fair chance of rising towards 1.0650 if it sustains above 1.06. EURJPY failed to rise past 159 and can trade within 157-159 while USDJPY continues to remain flat below 150. USDCNY dipped slightly after testing 7.3230 on the upside; can be bullish above 7.30. Pound and Aussie may trade within the range of 1.21-1.2250 & 0.62-0.64 respectively. USDRUB has dipped below its support of 96, revised range could be 98-94. USDINR needs to sustain the fall seen last week to fall to 82.90 else can rise back towards 83.30 again. EURINR can fall to 87.50 or lower while below 88.25/88.00.

The US Treasury yields have come down sharply on Friday. A further fall from here can trigger a correction this week. The German yields have also dipped slightly. But broadly the view remains bullish. The European Central Bank (ECB) meeting outcome is due on Thursday this week. There is room to rise further before a corrective fall begins. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI can oscillate in a narrow range for some time.

Dow Jones, Nifty and Nikkei look vulnerable to fall towards their support level. Dax might see a corrective bounce from 14700. Shanghai has declined further, breaking below 2985 but has long term supports coming at 2950-2900 which is expected to hold and produce a bounce back from there.

Brent and WTI have declined as the resistance at $94-95 and $90 respectively have held well. Outlook is bearish for crude prices for the near term. Gold and Silver have fallen back from friday's high but have immediate support which may hold and keep the overall uptrend intact. Copper looks vulnerable to test its lower end of the range. Natural gas continues to fall and has scope to test its immediate support before a possible bounce back can happen.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

25 Oct 23. 0857 IST or 0327 GMT or 2327 EST

Good Morning!

The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI has risen against expectations. The Dollar Index did fall to levels below 106 yesterday but has managed to bounce back above 106 again while Euro has fallen sharply from 1.07 and could trade within 1.07-1.0550 for a while now. EURJPY has fallen from 160 and could trade lower within 157-160 for a while as USDJPY continues to remain flat below 150 for now with potential to eventually break higher. USDCNY may continue to trade within 7.2950-7.32. Pound and Aussie may trade within the range of 1.21-1.2350 & 0.63-0.6450 respectively. USDRUB can hold above immediate support at 92.50 and rise towards 94-96 but we may have to allow for a fall to 90 in the medium term on a break below 92.50. USDINR may trade within 83.00-83.30 with decent support in the 82.80-83.00 region. EURINR can trade within 87.50-89.

The US Treasury yields and German yields have fallen but could soon bounce from near term supports. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI can oscillate in a narrow range for some time but has immediate supports below current levels which has potential to produce a decent rise.

Dow Jones has bounced back as expected but has to rise past 33400 to reduce the downside pressure. DAX and Nikkei can see a short corrective rise before resuming the fall again. Nifty can test 19100-19000 on the downside. Shanghai has recovered and has scope to rally towards its resistance while above 2900.

Brent and WTI have declined sharply and may come down further while they remain below $89 and $84 respectively. Gold is oscillating within 2000-1960. Silver can remain ranged within 22.50/80-24 for some time. Copper has scope to test its crucial resistance before a fall back can be seen. Natural gas looks bullish for the near term.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

26 Oct 23. 0854 IST or 0324 GMT or 2324 EST

Good Morning!

Sharp movements seen on the currency markets. The Dollar Index has risen above 106.5 while Euro has fallen sharply and could test 1.055-1.05 from where a bounce is needed to prevent further decline to 1.04. EURJPY could trade within 158-160 for a while as USDJPY has risen past 150 and needs to sustain to move up slowly towards 151-152 in the medium term. USDCNY may continue to trade within 7.2950-7.32. A rise past 7.32 is needed for a rise to 7.35 or higher. Pound and Aussie have fallen below 1.21 and 0.63 and look bearish towards 1.20 and 0.62 respectively unless an immediate bounce is seen. USDRUB can fall to 92.50 which needs to produce a bounce else can drag it lower towards 90. USDINR may trade within 82.90/83.00-83.30 region. EURINR can trade within 87/87.50-89.00. Important would be to watch ECB policy meeting today and US GDP data later in the evening after a fairly high German IFO data release yesterday.

The US Treasury yields have risen back sharply. A further rise from here will negate the expected dip and take them higher straight away. The German yields have bounced back and are keeping intact our view of seeing more rise from here. The outcome of the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting today will need a close watch. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI can fall towards the lower end of their range in the near-term.

Dow Jones and Nikkei have come down again failing to sustain the bounce and may fall further it they fails to sustains above their support at 32850 and 30500 respectively. DAX and Shanghai outlook is mixed. Nifty has come down as expected but failure to get a bounce back from its support can see an extended fall.

Brent and WTI have rebounded from their support levels and may look to rise further from here. Gold and Natural gas remains bullish for the near term. Silver is inching down towards its lower end of the 22.50/80-24 range. Need to see if silver holds above 22.50 or not. Copper is likely to consolidate within 3.65-3.50 for some time.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

27 Oct 23. 0845 IST or 0315 GMT or 2315 EST

Good Morning!

The ECB kept rates unchanged yesterday indicating that the latest inflation data has come down and could be slowly headed towards the 2% target while the current borrowing costs are just enough to control inflation if the rates are unchanged for "sufficiently long" time, suggesting no more rate cuts for the next few months at least. Dollar Index needs to break past 107 to test 108 else can be ranged within 107-106 while Euro may trade within 1.05-1.07. EURJPY may test 160 while above 158. USDJPY trades above 150 and needs to sustain to head towards 151/152. USDCNY is stable and could hover near 7.30/32 region. Unless a break above 7.32 is seen, the bullish view may get delayed. Pound can trade within 1.22-1.20 while Aussie can trade within 0.62-0.64. USDRUB can hold above immediate support at 92.50 and rise towards 94-96. USDINR may trade within 83.00-83.30 with decent support in the 82.80-83.00 region. EURINR can trade within 87.50-88.50.

The US Treasury yields have come down again. The chances are seeing a corrective fall remains alive before a fresh rise is seen. The German yields broadly remain stable. The view is bullish and there is room to rise more from here. The European Central Bank (ECB) left their policy rates unchanged yesterday. The central bank expects the economic growth to slow down. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are moving up within their expected sideways range.

Dow Jones and Nifty have scope to test their support before a possible bounce back can happen. DAX remain vulnerable. Nikkei has bounced back as the support at 30500 is holding well for now but broader bias is still bearish for a fall in the coming sessions. Shanghai has risen towards its upper end of the range. Need to see if it able to break higher or not.

Brent and WTI have fallen back failing to sustain the rise and appears range bound for the near term. Gold remains higher and has scope to rally on the upside. Silver outlook is bullish while it stays above 22.50. Natural gas has risen well and has scope to test its immediate resistance. Copper is to remain sideways for some time.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

30 Oct 23. 0850 IST or 0320 GMT or 2320 EST

Good Morning!

Dollar Index and Euro may trade within 107-106 and 1.06-1.05 respectively while EURJPY ca be bearish below 159. USDJPY can test 149 before rising higher again. USDCNY looks stable. Pound is headed towards 1.21 which if breaks on the downside could be bearish towards 1.2050-1.20. Aussie can trade within 0.63-0.64 for the near term. USDRUB can hold above immediate support at 92.00 and rise towards 96-98. USDINR may trade within 83.00-83.30 with decent support in the 82.80-83.00 region. EURINR can trade within 87.30-88.50.

The US Treasury yields are struggling to see a strong follow-through rise above their immediate resistances. They might come down and remain in a range for some time. The US Federal Reserve meeting outcome on Wednesday will need a close watch. The German yields have dipped slightly. But the view remains bullish to see more rise from here before a correction happens. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI remain stable within their sideways range.

Dow Jones and Nikkei look vulnerable to a fall to their support before a possible bounce back can happen. DAX outlook remain weak. Nifty has risen back but needs to overcome 19200 to ease the downside pressure. Shanghai has to break above 3025 to strengthen the momentum further.

Brent and WTI remains range bound. Gold and Silver have risen well and have scope to rise further in the near term. Copper has scope to test its crucial resistance before a reversal can be seen. Natural gas can dip towards 3.15-3.10.


Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

31 Oct 23. 0848 IST or 0318 GMT or 2318 EST

Good Morning!

Dollar Index and Euro may trade within 107-106 and 1.06-1.05 respectively while EURJPY can be bearish below 159. USDJPY can trade within 148.90-150. USDCNY looks stable. Pound has bounced from 1.2090 but looks bearish below 1.22. Aussie can trade within 0.63-0.64 for the near term. USDRUB can hold above immediate support at 92.00 and rise towards 96-98. USDINR may trade within 83.00-83.30 with decent support in the 82.80-83.00 region. EURINR can trade within 87.50-88.80.

The US Treasury yields have inched up slightly. We retain our view of the yields being in a sideways range for some time before moving higher. The US Federal Reserve meeting outcome on Wednesday will be important to watch. The German yields remain stable. View is bullish to see more rise from here and then a corrective fall. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are moving up within their ranges. The 10Yr looks more bullish than the 5Yr to get an upside breakout of its range and rise further if not immediately but eventually.

Dow Jones has rebounded sharply and may extend the bounce further on a break above 33000. Nikkei remains vulnerable to a fall towards its support before a possible bounce back can happen. DAX outlook remain weak. Nifty and Shanghai can rise further on a break above 19200 and 3025 respectively.

Brent and WTI have declined and have scope to test their immediate support before a possible bounce back can happen. Gold lacks strength to rise above 2020 whereas Silver has fallen back from yesterday's high. However the downside seems limited to 1980 and 23-22.50 for both the precious metals. Copper has fallen back as the resistance at 3.70 has held well. Natural gas remains bearish for the near term.


Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

1 Nov 23. 0859 IST or 0329 GMT or 2329 EST

Good Morning!

Most countries release PMI data today. FED policy meet is due tonight and NFP data is due on Friday. With all the important data releases, markets could remain volatile this week and early next week. Dollar Index and Euro may trade within 107-106/105 and 1.07-1.05 respectively while EURJPY rose to almost test 161 before coming off slightly and may remain bullish while above 158/157. USDJPY also rose sharply towards 152 and could trade above 150-151 for now. USDCNY looks stable. Pound looks bearish below 1.22. Aussie can trade within 0.63-0.64 for the near term. USDRUB can hold above immediate support at 92.00 and rise towards 96-98. USDINR may trade within 83.20-83.30 while EURINR can trade within 89-87.50.

The US Treasury yields are moving up. But they have to breach the upcoming resistance decisively to move further higher. Else they can continue to oscillate in a range for some more time. The US Federal Reserve meeting outcome tonight will need a close watch. The German yields have dipped slightly. But supports are there to limit the downside and keep the uptrend intact. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are looking mixed within their respective range.

Dow Jones is heading up towards its immediate resistance, which if holds, can produce a reversal from there. Nikkei has bounced back sharply after BoJ maintained its benchmark rate unchanged at -10bps and announced that it will utilise the upper end of its yield curve control band i.e. 1% as a reference cap for its market operations but is likely to face resistance ahead. DAX has risen slightly and a further rise from here can take it towards its resistance. Nifty and Shanghai are struggling to get a strong follow-through rise.

Brent is near its key support region whereas WTI has fallen below $82 but has crucial support ahead. Crude price can bounces back if the support holds well. Gold and Silver have declined but downside could be limited to 1980 and 23-22.50 respectively. Copper is bearish while below resistance at 3.70. Natural gas has risen back sharply and may rise further on a break above 3.70. US FOMC meeting tonight will be crucial to watch as it will help in deciding if crude prices and precious metals will bounces back from their support level or breaks lower.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

2 Nov 23. 0847 IST or 0317 GMT or 2317 EST

Good Morning!

The FED held rates in yesterday’s policy meeting and iterated that they are not thinking or even discussing of any rate reductions now which could suggest that there could be a possibility of rate hikes but with the economy now signaling balance and moderately better performance, we will have to wait and watch. Markets have been volatile as expected. Dollar Index and Euro may trade within 107-106 and 1.05-1.07 region for some time. EURJPY can fall to 158 before pausing while USDJPY can fall to 149 before bouncing back again. Pound can rise to 1.22-1.2250 while immediate support holds at 1.21. USDCNY may remain stuck around 7.30. Aussie is bullish towards 0.6450. USDRUB can fall to 90 on a break below 92. USDINR can attempt to break past 83.30 to move up towards 83.50/60. Failure to sustain above 83.30 will drag it back into the broad 83.30-83.00 region. EURINR can remain ranged within 89-87.50.

The US Treasury yields have declined sharply as the US Federal Reserve left the rates unchanged in line with market expectation. The yields can now fall further to test their range supports and then bounce back again to keep the range intact. The German yields have also dipped further. There is room to test their supports before resuming their overall uptrend. The 5Yr and 10Yr GoI remain stable within their range.

Dow Jones is coming close to its resistance, which if holds, can produce a reversal from there. Nikkei has risen sharply above its resistance and may look to target further upside. DAX has scope to test its resistance at 15000-15200. Nifty outlook is bearish while below the resistance at 19200. Shanghai is hovering below its resistance at 3050 and might fall if its stays 3050.

Brent and WTI has bounced back slightly from their key support but needs to rise past their resistance to reduce the downside pressure. Gold and Silver have rise back as the support at 1980 and 22.50 has held well. Fed kept the interest rate unchanged at 5.5% which seems to have lend some support to crude prices and precious metals. Copper has risen back towards its resistance at 3.70. Needs to see if it breaks above 3.70 or not. Natural gas is to be range bound within 3.30-3.70 for a while.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

3 Nov 23. 0847 IST or 0317 GMT or 2317 EST

Good Morning!

Dollar Index trades lower on possible cooling off of further rate hikes but continues to trade within 105-107 region while Euro can remain within 1.05-1.07. EURJPY has bounced from 159 but while below 161 there is scope for a fall to 158. USDJPY trades above 150 and has scope to rise slowly back to 151/152. Pound can rise to 1.22-1.2250 before falling back to 1.21 while USDCNY may remain stuck around 7.30. Aussie must rise past 0.6450 to test 0.65 else can fall back towards 0.64 or lower. USDRUB can trade within 92-96 for very near term but eventual decline to 90 cannot be negated. USDINR is holding below 83.30 contrary to our expectation of seeing an upside break. The pair could remain within 83.15-83.30 for the very near term. EURINR can remain ranged within 89-87.50/87.00.

The US Treasury yields continue to come down in line with our expectation. There is room to fall more before a reversal is seen again. The German yields have come close to their key supports. Failure to rise back immediately can drag them lower. That will delay the rise that we have been expecting. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have come down towards the lower end of their respective range. We expect the range to remain intact and the yields to rise back within it.

Dow Jones has risen well breaking above its resistance and looks further bullish from here. DAX can see an extended rise on a break above 15200. Nifty has moved up but lacks strength. Shanghai has scope to break above its resistance at 3050 and rise further in the near term.

Brent and WTI have risen well as their support at $84 and $80 respectively have held well and look likely to target further upside. Gold lacks strength but needs to sustain above 1980 to avoid the danger of falling. Silver may continue to remain range bound while above 22.50. Key focus is on US NFP data today which could drive the prices of precious metals. Copper is iching up towards its key resistance. Needs to see if it breaks higher or not. Natural gas is to be range bound within 3.30-3.70 for a while.


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6 Nov 23. 0849 IST or 0319 GMT or 2219 EST

Good Morning!

Dollar Index plunged after the NFP data release on Friday taking most other currencies up against the Dollar. The Dollar Index has fallen to test 105 but need to see if it can bounce back from here or head lower towards 104. Euro and EURJPY trade higher and may test 1.0750-1.08 and 161-162 while above 1.07 and 160 respectively. USDJPY is holding above 148.70 and could rise slowly towards 149-150 again soon. Aussie and Pound have risen sharply but needs to sustain above 0.65 and 1.23 to move higher in the near term. USDCNY has fallen sharply and could now head towards 7.25. USDRUB is headed towards 90 as expected. USDINR may open gap down near 83. EURINR has risen well and could head towards 89.

The US Treasury yields have declined further after the jobs report on Friday. The US NFP increased by 150K as against the market expectation of 178K. The yields can fall further to test their supports and then bounce back thereafter. The German yields have declined below their supports thereby negating our view of seeing a bounce back. Further fall is possible. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are poised just above their key supports. Failure to bounce from here can drag them further lower.

Equities look bullish for the near term. Dow Jones and Dax can rise further on a break above 34200 and 15200 respectively. Nifty has scope to test 19400-19500 on the upside. Nikkei has risen sharply and has scope to test its key resistance before a reversal can be seen. Shanghai is attempting to rise above its resistance at 3050.

Brent and WTI have fallen back toward their support after failing to break above $88 and $84 respectively. Need to see if the support holds and produces a bounce back for crude prices or not. Gold and Silver saw a rally last Friday on the release of weaker-than-expected US NFP data which come in at 150K than the market expectation of 178K but are likely to remain ranged for some time. Copper lacks the strength to rise above its immediate resistance. Natural gas remains mixed and has declined towards the lower end of the 3.30-3.70 range.


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7 Nov 23. 0853 IST or 0323 GMT or 2223 EST

Good Morning!

Dollar Index can test 105.50-105.80 before falling again while Euro can attempt to rise back towards 1.08 while above 1.07. EURJPY has dipped from 161 and can take it lower for a few days before resuming to rise to 162. USDJPY has risen above 150 and can test 151+ levels soon. Aussie could test 0.6450 before again moving up while Pound looks bearish below 1.24 USDCNY could rise to 7.30 before falling back towards 7.26/25. USDRUB could range within 94.50-91.40. USDINR may continue trade within 83.10-83.30. EURINR has risen well and could head towards 90-91.

The US Treasury yields have bounced. If this sustains, a further rise is possible. Need to wait and watch. The German Yields have also risen back well. A strong follow-through rise will negate the chances of more fall and will take them higher. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI remains lower and are looking vulnerable to fall more.

Dow Jones remained stable but needs a break above 34200 to strengthen the momentum further else a fall back cannot be negated. DAX and Nifty upside looks capped at 15400-15500 and 19500-19600 respectively. Nikkei has fallen back but is likely to get support at 32000-31500. Shanghai outlook remains bullish while above 3025.

Brent and WTI are hovering above their key support. Need to see if the crude prices manage to bounce back or breaks lower. Gold has declined towards 1980 and looks vulnerable to fall further in the near term. Silver has also fallen back but is likely to remain range bound while above the support at 22.50. Copper has come down, failing to rise above its resistance at 3.73. Natural gas has broken below the lower end of the range and looks bearish to fall further from here.


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8 Nov 23. 0859 IST or 0329 GMT or 2229 EST

Good Morning!


The Dollar Index seems to be recovering slowly towards 106, taking the Euro down towards 1.0650. EURJPY has risen back and has scope to test 161/162. USDJPY has risen above 150 and can test 151/152 levels soon. The Aussie is bullish towards 0.65 while above 0.64 while the Pound looks bearish below 1.2450 to fall to 1.22. USDCNY looks stable above 7.25. USDRUB could range between 91-93.50 with possible extension to 90. USDINR may continue trade between 83.20-83.30. The EURINR could remain below 90 for a few sessions.

The US Treasury and the German yields have come down failing to sustain the bounce seen on Monday. Further fall is likely to be seen in both the German and US yields in the coming days before they reverse higher again. The 10Yr GoI is coming down in line with our expectation. The 5Yr GoI on the other hand is looking mixed and is stuck inside a narrow range.

Dow Jones has moved up but needs a break above 34200 to strengthen the momentum further. DAX and Nifty have scope to test the resistance at 15400-15500 and 19500-19600 respectively. Nikkei remains subdued but has scope to see a rally while above the support at 32000-31500. Shanghai outlook remains bullish while above 3025.

Brent and WTI have broken sharply below their key support and looks bearish to target their next immediate support before a possible bounce back can happen. Gold, Silver and Copper looks vulnerable for the near term. Natural gas has scope to bounce back from the support at 3.1-3.0.


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