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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #5,761
  • Jun 8, 2007 3:28am Jun 8, 2007 3:28am
I think this data will push it down just my 2 pips though
  • #5,762
  • Jun 8, 2007 3:30am Jun 8, 2007 3:30am
Quoting cesarnc
Forget the techs... Forget the fundis... I'm a GUT FEELING trader now

Wow, Cesarnc sold UY...thats incredible. way to go man. However, Im curios what happenes after the news. I dont expect much rally today, but at current levels it may bounce and resume the uptrend. At least from the Fibonistic point of view.
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #5,763
  • Jun 8, 2007 3:50am Jun 8, 2007 3:50am
Quoting gagiul
Wow, Cesarnc sold UY...thats incredible. way to go man. However, Im curios what happenes after the news. I dont expect much rally today, but at current levels it may bounce and resume the uptrend. At least from the Fibonistic point of view.
Hey gagiul...

Market is too nervous and way too confusing to me now... Every red tick in the stock market, and carries are dumped, then few moves up, it goes up 100 pips in no time.... This is nasty business....
  • #5,764
  • Jun 8, 2007 3:54am Jun 8, 2007 3:54am
found this nice & easy indicator week ago...

so far it had my profit number keep running....

check out
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=26205
Attached Image
Never greed & never regret cuz tomorrow is another day!!
  • #5,765
  • Jun 8, 2007 4:00am Jun 8, 2007 4:00am
237.75 is strong fib level, price will probably bounce off 238.90 and return to 237.75 support level, if it breaks through there i think the carry trade may be in trouble..

i have a long trade in at 238.27 with a 25 pip trailing stop...

http://img178.imageshack.us/img178/4...undofffrg6.gif
  • #5,766
  • Jun 8, 2007 4:03am Jun 8, 2007 4:03am
shoot, i missed the 100 pips retracement i was working on a customer PC. Price is bouncing down exactely on the EMA50 on 5 minutes.

I am working on a new system for GBPYEN, just need to check if it does not exist allready and i will post it. It seems veeeeeerry efficient
  • #5,767
  • Jun 8, 2007 4:13am Jun 8, 2007 4:13am
Quoting melpheos
shoot, i missed the 100 pips retracement i was working on a customer PC. Price is bouncing down exactely on the EMA50 on 5 minutes.

I am working on a new system for GBPYEN, just need to check if it does not exist allready and i will post it. It seems veeeeeerry efficient
I am using the 5m more than ever now....Looking forward to seeing your system!
  • #5,768
  • Jun 8, 2007 4:13am Jun 8, 2007 4:13am
Interesting how in the middle of the panic, you can find aggressive buyers. UJ's action is by far the hardest, since it barely puts new lows.

239 area was where I dumped my lots, in loss. Glad to see GJ extending to 237s without my truck on it... 239 area will is where I'll return to the market.

Another carnage in NYC is not out of the cards, so until then I'm out.
  • #5,769
  • Jun 8, 2007 5:00am Jun 8, 2007 5:00am
Quoting renegade
I am using the 5m more than ever now....Looking forward to seeing your system!
Have you noticed the new rebound on EMA50 (2 rebound to the pip )
  • #5,770
  • Jun 8, 2007 5:05am Jun 8, 2007 5:05am
Sure have!!!! Used the 50 on the 1h and 4h but never noticed how effective it was on the 5m. Thanks
  • #5,771
  • Edited 5:30am Jun 8, 2007 5:05am | Edited 5:30am
05:58 S&P Futures flip negative ... -5.10. This could get ugly.

Was positive few hours ago...


30 min later:
06:27S&P Futures plunging, now down -6.40
  • #5,772
  • Jun 8, 2007 5:37am Jun 8, 2007 5:37am
Interesting stuff. The yen refuses to strengthen significant, check the Aussie and Kiwi crosses. UJ just pulled a nice sprint upstairs after a few days down.

The present guppy correction was fueled by a massive sterling sell off even with positive production data from the UK. I guess there was much more speculation of a surprice rate hike by the BOE than anticipated????
And add the dollar strength to that mix and you'll get some confusion and we all know what confusion and uncertainty do for the carries.
I think the bottom is in sight and might even have seen it already. But than again, a lot depends on NY close.
  • #5,773
  • Jun 8, 2007 5:43am Jun 8, 2007 5:43am
Quoting BaasHarm!
Interesting stuff. The yen refuses to strengthen significant, check the Aussie and Kiwi crosses. UJ just pulled a nice sprint upstairs after a few days down.

The present guppy correction was fueled by a massive sterling sell off even with positive production data from the UK. I guess there was much more speculation of a surprice rate hike by the BOE than anticipated????
And add the dollar strength to that mix and you'll get some confusion and we all know what confusion and uncertainty do for the carries.
I think the bottom is in sight and might even have seen it already. But than again, a lot depends on NY close.
Dollar is soaring across the board... Problem is that the same underlying fundamentals for dollar strong are stock market bearish. This last wave of dollar buying has seen european stocks plunging...

So in what concerns to carry trade, this is a nasty scenario since dollar up sentiment (UJ up) vs. risk reduction (UJ down) is putting UJ crazy.
  • #5,774
  • Jun 8, 2007 6:30am Jun 8, 2007 6:30am
Oh my,

Most of my positions on the UJ going long closed!!!! I had no more guts to load up than what we loaded already.

Now, Our margin is in comfortable levels and cann start looking to load up again on dips. What a good morning this is for sure!!!!!

I closed out on the folowing Longs when I woke up!!!

121.45 TP 121.60
121.38 TP 121.60
121.25 TP 121.50
121.15 TP 121.35
121.00 TP 121.20
  • #5,775
  • Edited 7:25am Jun 8, 2007 6:57am | Edited 7:25am
I have closed my hedge @ 238.25 and waiting to see i have to reopen it again.

Notice how the ema50 is acting as a support now (this is part of the new system i'm am building - more this week end )
  • #5,776
  • Jun 8, 2007 7:03am Jun 8, 2007 7:03am
us open now is the time to see if it keeps it up. let ride the trend and see were we end up by close of play.
  • #5,777
  • Jun 8, 2007 7:04am Jun 8, 2007 7:04am
loading up the longs?
  • #5,778
  • Jun 8, 2007 7:06am Jun 8, 2007 7:06am
I'm waiting USD news + NYSE. Good trade balance may inspire new selloff in the stock market.
  • #5,779
  • Jun 8, 2007 7:07am Jun 8, 2007 7:07am
Quoting cesarnc
I'm waiting USD news + NYSE. Good trade balance may inspire new selloff in the stock market.

Good idea.. keep us up-to-date.
  • #5,780
  • Jun 8, 2007 7:08am Jun 8, 2007 7:08am
buy.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
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