Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

E-mini S&P 500 Falls to Lowest Since Early Summer



Job openings rose to 9.6 million in August, the highest level since April, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported yesterday. That's nearly 700,000 more than in July and well above the Dow Jones forecast of 8.8 million.
A strong labor market may indicate a growing economy, but why did E-mini S&P 500 futures fall to their lowest level since early summer? It's about the Fed's high rates.
A strong labor market makes the case for keeping rates high for longer to slow inflation to the 2% target. And high rates mean a decrease in the profitability of companies' businesses; accordingly, we see the development of bearish sentiment in the stock market. We wrote about this scenario in an analytical review on September 19, before the last FOMC meeting took place.
In addition, high Federal Reserve rates make bonds more attractive and portfolio managers, it can be assumed, are transferring capital from the stock market to bonds, as well as to cash (the dollar index hit a new high of the year yesterday).




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Fed Policymakers Ponder Prolonged High Rates Amidst Inflation Dilemma



The US Federal Reserve's persistent strategy of increasing interest rates to combat inflation and subsequently maintaining them at elevated levels has sparked a contentious debate in Western financial markets. While US Federal Reserve officials emphasise the necessity of a restrictive monetary policy to rein in inflation and bring it down to the Fed's 2% target, there remains an underlying dispute regarding the potential for another rate hike later this year.
It's crucial to note that inflation in the United States has been relatively well-contained for over a year, a far cry from the double-digit inflation still plaguing certain regions in Europe. Nevertheless, central bankers' approach to monetary policy remains notably conservative.
One of the paramount concerns facing the US economy is its staggering national debt, which surpasses that of most Western economies. Surprisingly, despite this financial burden, the US dollar continues to exhibit strength, notably gaining significant ground against the British pound in recent weeks.

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Yen and Commodity Currencies Hit Annual Lows



Yesterday, one could observe a continuation of the upward momentum in the dollar. Good data on the number of open vacancies in the US labour market from JOLTS allowed the USD/JPY pair to update its annual maximum at 150.00. The USD/CAD currency pair has strengthened above 1.3700, and the AUD/USD pair is approaching last year’s extremes at 0.6200-0.6100.

USD/JPY
The American currency continues to hold its leading position in the first five-day trading period of October. But, since many pairs have reached important levels, corrective pullbacks from the main movements can be expected in the near future. Thus, the USD/JPY pair fell sharply yesterday after testing the psychological level of 150.00 and lost more than 250 points in just an hour. US dollar buyers very quickly returned the price above 149.00, but apparently, the range of 150.20-150.00 could become a serious obstacle to further growth of USD/JPY. A corrective downward pullback for the pair may be limited by recent extremes at 147.30-148.50.
Today at 15:15 GMT+3, we are waiting for preliminary data on employment in the US for September from ADR. A little later, the business activity index (PMI) in the US services sector for the same period will be released.




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WTI Oil Analysis: Price Falls 10% in Less Than a Week



In our article “Oil Analysis: Finally, A Bearish Reversal?” on September 21, we drew attention to emerging signs that the initiative was shifting to the bears. This was noticeable in the changes in the dynamics of impulses and corrections, as well as in the analysis of the interaction between trading volumes and prices.
Since then, the bulls were able to update the high of the year on September 28, but the price did not stay there for long, falling sharply in the following days. Three bearish candles formed on the chart, which confirmed the problems of the bulls, and the double top pattern (A-B) also became relevant.
Another principle of technical analysis that emphasized the dominance of supply over demand is that each upward move was approximately 2 times weaker than the downward move. This can be seen in the consistent structure characteristic of a bearish trend:
→ the C→D move is approximately 50% of the B→C bearish momentum;
→ the rebound from the median line of the ascending channel E→F is approximately 50% of the bearish impulse D→E;
→ the bounce from the (now former) support line 87.50 G→H is approximately 50% of the bearish momentum F→G.




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USD/CHF Analysis: Rate Rises to Its Highest in Six Months



This happened against the backdrop of rising US bond yields. Reuters writes that it is in the region of a 16-year high. It is reasonable to assume that big capital was balancing its defensive portfolio by selling the franc, considered a safe haven, and buying dollars to invest in American bonds, which also have high-quality status.
On July 13, we wrote that the franc could rebound from the lower line of the channel (shown in red). This was supposed to be facilitated by hawkish rhetoric from Fed officials and, as a result, the strengthening of the dollar.
However, now the situation has reversed. The USD/CHF rate expanded the range of a larger downward channel and reached its upper limit. It even tried to break out of it on October 3 (but without noticeable success).




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CEO Sells Shares, AAPL Price Underperforms Market


As it became known yesterday:

→ Tim Cook sold shares, selling 511k of his existing package of more than 3 million shares. For information: in 2023, he took a salary reduction of approximately 40%, but increased the size of the bonus (tied to the company's success) in the form of shares from 50% to 75%.
→ Investment bank KeyBanc Capital Markets downgraded AAPL shares. Analysts believe the company's sales will fall amid lower consumer spending.




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European Currencies Have Found a Short-term Bottom



A weak employment report from ADR and a decline in the US services PMI contributed to the start of a corrective pullback in major currency pairs. Thus, the EUR/USD pair went above 1.0500, the GBP/USD pair is forming a bullish engulfing combination, and the USD/JPY pair fell below 149.00.

GBP/USD
The decline of the British currency was interrupted after the publication of data on the business activity index in the UK services sector for September. The indicator showed impressive growth: 49.3 against the forecast of 47.2. The composite business activity index (PMI) also turned out to be positive: 48.5 versus 46.8. Such positive statistics allowed pound buyers to find support just above 1.2000 and close yesterday with a reversal ‘bullish engulfing’ combination. If today we receive confirmation of the indicated signal in the form of any white candle, the price may return to 1.2280-1.2300.
Today's news on the business activity index in the UK construction sector for September will be important for the pair's pricing. It is also worth paying attention to the speech of Ben Broadbent, a member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee.




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AUD/USD and NZD/USD Aim Steady Recovery



AUD/USD is attempting a recovery wave from 0.6285. NZD/USD is also rising and facing a major hurdle near the 0.5980 level.
Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today

 

1. The Aussie Dollar found support near 0.5870 and is now recovering against the US Dollar.
2. There is a key rising channel forming with resistance near 0.6385 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
3. NZD/USD is attempting a recovery wave above the 0.5930 resistance.
4. There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 0.5950 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair recovered above 0.6450. However, the Aussie Dollar failed to clear 0.6500 and started a fresh decline against the US Dollar.
The pair declined below the 0.6385 support. Finally, the bulls appeared near the 0.6285 zone. A low was formed near 0.6285 and the pair is now correcting losses. There was a move above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 0.6500 swing high to the 0.6285 low.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

NFLX Analysis: Changes in Management, Price at Minimum



Yesterday, the NFLX share price dropped below USD 370, the lowest since late May of this year, and about -22% from the July peak.
Note that on July 6, we wrote that the NFLX stock price could meet resistance at USD 450 per share, and the signals from the chart gave bearish warnings. Just since July, the stock price began to perform worse than the broad S&P 500 market index.
Perhaps the company knows better about the reasons for the emerging negative dynamics and is making changes in management. This week it became known about the appointment of Amy Reinhard to the post of president of the company's advertising business. New product directors and technical directors were also appointed.
Will new executives help the stock return to its upward trajectory?




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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

USD/JPY Analysis: Psychological Level Changes the Price Sharply



On Tuesday, the US dollar rose above the psychological level of 150 for the first time since October 2022 before falling sharply to a low of 147.30 as the yen rose.
The media are discussing whether this movement confirms the fact of intervention on the part of the Japanese authorities.
On the one hand, there are opinions that the yen's movement on Tuesday was much smaller (about 1.7%) than when the authorities intervened last year (the change was about 4%) to support the yen.
On the other hand, there are no clear explanations about the reasons for the sharp movement — except as a manifestation of the authorities’ interest in preventing excessive weakening of the national currency. Perhaps only about the influence of psychology when reaching and short-term exceeding the round figure — an effect that, by the way, is characteristic of the cryptocurrency market.




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US Dollar Falls Ahead of Employment Data



EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair shows mixed dynamics, remaining close to 1.0540. The European currency ended the last two trading sessions with moderate growth, which allowed the pair to retreat from the record lows of December 2022. The driver of the correctional dynamics was the expectation of the publication of the September report on the labour market in the United States. Analysts are currently forecasting a slight decline in new nonfarm payrolls from 187.0k to 170.0k. Average hourly wages in September could rise from 0.2% to 0.3%, while the annual figure will likely remain unchanged at 4.3%. The unemployment rate is expected to correct from 3.8% to 3.7%.

At the same time, trading participants have information from the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) company presented on Wednesday: in September, the dynamics of employment in the private sector slowed from 180.0k to 89.0k, which turned out to be significantly worse than the 153.0k expected by experts. A more confident growth of the single currency was hampered by statistics on foreign trade in Germany, published the day before: export volumes in August decreased by 1.2% after -1.9% in the previous month, while analysts expected -0.4%, and imports, by 0.4% after -1.3% with a forecast of growth of 0.5%. Against this background, the country's trade surplus decreased from 17.7 billion euros to 16.6 billion euros, which turned out to be better than expectations of 15.0 billion euros.

Based on the highs of two days, a new ascending channel has formed. Now, the price has moved away from the upper border of the channel and may continue to move towards the lower border.




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Israel Under Attack, Oil Prices Rise Sharply



On Friday, trading in WTI oil futures on the NYMEX closed at USD 82.81 per barrel. And on Monday morning, they opened at a price of USD 85.25 and began to quickly rise in price, reaching 87.24. Natural gas prices have also risen sharply.
The reason is Saturday's attack on Israel. And, of course, associations arise with the oil crisis of 1973, when Arab oil-producing countries refused to supply raw materials to the United States and other allies that supported Israel. Then the price of a barrel rose from USD 3 to 12 in six months.




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Geopolitical Tensions Rattle Markets: US Stocks Decline, Oil Surges Amid Israel-Gaza Conflict



The global financial landscape found itself in a state of flux as the military conflict between Israel and the Gaza Strip roiled markets. US stock futures faced downward pressure, while oil and Treasury values surged. Additionally, the September US jobs report added to the intensity, setting the stage for crucial inflation figures later in the week.
Despite thin trading conditions due to holidays in Japan and South Korea, the initial market sentiment favoured bonds and safe-haven assets like the Japanese yen and gold. Simultaneously, oil prices experienced a notable climb, surging by over $3 per barrel.
The Israeli shekel bore the initial brunt of the turmoil, plummeting to its lowest level since early 2015, standing at 3.9880 per dollar. While this may not immediately appear significant to traders due to the shekel's limited status as a major currency and unavailability on most platforms, it is intertwined with the potential performance of tech stocks listed on US exchanges, notably NASDAQ.

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GBP/USD Starts Recovery While USD/CAD Corrects Lower



GBP/USD started a recovery wave from the 1.2040 zone. USD/CAD is correcting gains and trading below the 1.3700 support.
Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD Analysis Today

 

1. The British Pound is eyeing a fresh increase above the 1.2270 resistance.
2. There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2180 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
3. USD/CAD rallied toward the 1.3800 level before it started a downside correction.
4. A declining channel is forming with resistance near 1.3700 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair accelerated lower below the 1.2200 zone. The British Pound even traded below the 1.2120 support against the US Dollar, as discussed in the previous analysis.
Finally, the bulls appeared near the 1.2040 zone. The pair is now attempting a recovery wave above the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.2120. There was a spike toward the 1.2270 resistance. A high has formed near 1.2261 and the pair is now consolidating gains.

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Economic Calendar: Markets Digest Events Happening in Israel



It's a busy start to the week as markets digest the events happening in Israel. Last week, WTI fell 10% to below $81 but gapped higher on this week's open, as wars in the Middle East add a risk premium to the price. With the OPEC report on Thursday, it looks set to be another volatile week in the oil markets.

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Natural Gas Price Reaches 8-month High



As the chart shows, yesterday, the price of gas rose above USD 3.60 for the first time since January of this year.
It can be assumed that events in Israel contributed to the price increase, since the Middle East is an important supplier of gas.
However, note that the bullish momentum started much earlier — gas prices have risen approximately 20% since the October 3 low. This confirms our assumptions about the bullish trend, which we published in the review on August 25th.
Perhaps the price of gas is influenced by seasonal factors and fears that weather conditions in the coming winter will be difficult.




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Bitcoin Price Cannot Stay above $28k



The first day of October coincided with the first attempt of the bulls to overcome the resistance level of USD 28,000 per coin, but on the 2nd of October, the sellers showed their presence. Since that time, the price has repeatedly exceeded the level of 28k, but each time not for long, after which a decline followed.
Yesterday, there was another such decline. As the BTC/USD chart shows today, the rate is around 27,600. And it seems that the bulls may no longer have the strength to make a new attempt.
Analyzing the bitcoin market on September 8, we pointed out a list of bearish arguments that give reason to doubt the positive prospects for bitcoin. The described price action of about 28k is another bearish argument in this list.




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BOE Concentrates on Persistent Inflation Whilst US Stocks Fly



Bank of England policy committee member Catherine Mann emphasised the need for a more aggressive central bank response to prolonged inflation exceeding target levels. She highlighted the importance of addressing not only the current high inflation but also the risk of inflation expectations rising in the future. Ms. Mann's call for a proactive approach to inflation management came after her preference for a rate increase at the BOE's last meeting, while her colleagues voted to maintain the status quo.
According to Ms. Mann, "Policy has to be more aggressive because it has to address both a drift in expectations as well as the actual inflation." She expressed concern about the persistence and duration of elevated inflation, underscoring the importance of managing embedded inflation expectations.
The British pound is moving upward against the US dollar for the sixth day.




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Major Currency Pairs Correct after Sharp Declines



The fairly positive US jobs report released last Friday ultimately led to a corrective pullback in almost all currency pairs. The US dollar fell against the yen, commodity currencies, the pound, and the euro. However, not all pairs managed to overcome the key ranges; the size of the corrective pullback and the possibility of a reversal will depend on the incoming fundamental events of the coming trading sessions.

USD/CAD



In the US dollar/loonie pair, we are seeing the bearish tweezer pattern, formed on October 5, working out. The combination was confirmed the next day with a long black candle. The nearest range where the price can fall is from 1.3540 to 1.3500. Cancellation of the downward scenario may occur after a confident consolidation above 1.3700.
Several FOMC members are scheduled to speak today, in particular Neel Kashkari and Christopher Waller. Comments from these officials could have a significant impact on the pair's pricing.

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EUR/USD Attempts Recovery While USD/CHF Revisits Support



EUR/USD started a recovery wave above the 1.0550 resistance. USD/CHF declined and now trading near the 1.0450 support zone.
Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF Analysis Today

 

1. The Euro gained pace after it broke the 1.0550 resistance against the US Dollar.
2. There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 1.0570 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
3. USD/CHF declined below the 0.9140 and 0.9080 support levels.
4. There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance near 0.9080 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a recovery wave from the 1.0450 level. The Euro even cleared the 1.0485 barrier to move into a short-term bullish zone against the US Dollar.
The bulls pushed the pair above the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.0570. Finally, the pair tested the 1.0615 resistance. It is now consolidating gains above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward wave from the 1.0519 swing low to the 1.0619 high.
Immediate support on the downside is 1.0595. The next major support is near a bullish trend line at 1.0570 and the 50-hour simple moving average.
The trend line is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward wave from the 1.0519 swing low to the 1.0619 high. A downside break below the 1.0570 support could send the pair toward the 1.0485 level.
Immediate resistance on the EUR/USD chart is near the 1.0615 zone. The first major resistance is near the 1.0650 level. An upside break above the 1.0650 level might send the pair toward the 1.0700 resistance.
The next major resistance is near the 1.0720 level. Any more gains might open the doors for a move toward the 1.0800 level.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.