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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #5,621
  • Jun 7, 2007 12:17pm Jun 7, 2007 12:17pm

I hope nobody shorted at 239.60 Just recovered 2 days of losses, exited shorts at 239.00, bought for a quick scalp till 239.30 and now im out, waiting to see what happenes. Believe it will stabilize around there. Huh, great day in the end, as Caesarnc said, after 12 GMT, the big move come.

Edit: 238.92 is a damn important fib level. Below it, apocalypse on the line.

We leave no soldier behind.
  • #5,622
  • Jun 7, 2007 12:19pm Jun 7, 2007 12:19pm
February déjà vù here....
  • #5,623
  • Jun 7, 2007 12:25pm Jun 7, 2007 12:25pm
Quoting Islander
LOL - isnt 300 down since yesterday morning sufficient?

Very oversold IMO - just got +43 in the bounce off 239.00 - now San Miguel quality control time, so probably calling it a day.
man, this was one of the best trades quick scalp for 30-40 pips in 2 min. I hope u got out in time.
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #5,624
  • Jun 7, 2007 12:25pm Jun 7, 2007 12:25pm
The following article is from the MNI Newswire:

EURO-YEN: Slide in US stocks andperhaps warnings of further falls possible appear to be setting of a fresh scramble for yen as carry trades/risk appetites get pared back. Euro-yen has tripped layered stops on the move through Y162.50 area and is now more than a full Yen below the Y163.70 highs seen mid-morning. Euro-yen has tripped layered stops on the move through Y162.85 and downside demand area at Y162.30/20 appears within easy reach and perhaps penetrable. That area broadly corresponds to the May 25 lows and a break below there also risks stop-driven sales traders warn.

I for one don't like to short the yen crosses after getting burned too often. Normally we can buy on dips, but when do you know when to buy when this unwinding is happening? What signals the bottom?
  • #5,625
  • Jun 7, 2007 12:26pm Jun 7, 2007 12:26pm
Quoting cesarnc
February déjà vù here....
would be so optimistic, but who knows...if there was one day like this every week, I would trade only in this day.
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #5,626
  • Jun 7, 2007 12:27pm Jun 7, 2007 12:27pm
Heres a daily chart with fibs from last move up from start of March. Could 237.80 be next target? 23.6% retrace. Is there much in the way now of stopping it considering 10 year note over 5%, dow, S&P being sold off. I dont normally trade this pair but is this 23.6% retrace a good target do you think?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #5,627
  • Jun 7, 2007 12:31pm Jun 7, 2007 12:31pm
Good Bottom Price
  • #5,628
  • Jun 7, 2007 12:32pm Jun 7, 2007 12:32pm
Quoting el_duende
Heres a daily chart with fibs from last move up from start of March. Could 237.80 be next target? 23.6% retrace. Is there much in the way now of stopping it considering 10 year note over 5%, dow, S&P being sold off. I dont normally trade this pair but is this 23.6% retrace a good target do you think?
Now THAT'S one good piece of chart... I like long term fibos... Thanks for bringing it up...

It may have been all about Trichet B.S. earlier, he used "China" and "Yuan" in the same statement.

But as all the drivers of the carry trades are pointing down, I'm scalping shorts only.... This 23% fib in the chart, if reached, would be a nice long entry, though
  • #5,629
  • Jun 7, 2007 12:42pm Jun 7, 2007 12:42pm
ok sl=238.50 is reasonable.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #5,630
  • Jun 7, 2007 12:46pm Jun 7, 2007 12:46pm
Quoting el_duende
Heres a daily chart with fibs from last move up from start of March. Could 237.80 be next target? 23.6% retrace. Is there much in the way now of stopping it considering 10 year note over 5%, dow, S&P being sold off. I dont normally trade this pair but is this 23.6% retrace a good target do you think?
As I see it, it can make a bounce from current levels, maybe until 239.70, even 240.30, but short term the trend is down in my opinion. 23.6 (black) of the big trend coincides with 38% of a shorter one, so it may provide some support and even a recovery. But not too sure it will hold. Maybe we will see it go until 234.60, the 38 % of the big trend....I will start selling on rallies from tomorrow, until I see I am wrong.
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We leave no soldier behind.
  • #5,631
  • Jun 7, 2007 12:46pm Jun 7, 2007 12:46pm
Dow Jones put -1.3% already....
  • #5,632
  • Jun 7, 2007 12:48pm Jun 7, 2007 12:48pm
13:45 What a wierd day. The equity's were poised to get slammed at the open, and everyone geared up for that event. The reality of the 5% Treasury yield did not come until much later in the session, taking many off guard. We have several currencies now reversing trend. GBP Euro both against the dollar and GBP/JPY as well as Eur/JPY. Tomorrows close is going to be crucial for these ideas to gain some traction.

GAIN TRACTION?
  • #5,633
  • Jun 7, 2007 12:53pm Jun 7, 2007 12:53pm
Out of interest here is USD/JPY daily chart with fib levels 120.50 NEXT?

Now im new in trying to look at price action but todays daily bar is very bearish. ie encompasses yesterdays bar with a higher high and a lower low so far. Looking on the hourlies from my novice price action skills I missed a good entry at 121.45 before on 4pm GMT.
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  • #5,634
  • Jun 7, 2007 1:06pm Jun 7, 2007 1:06pm
I would think 120.50 is in the works for USD/JPY. On the daily chart, we've had a series of lower closes. The 120.50 area looks like a good price target. There is a confluence of events with the trend line and 24% Fib level there.
  • #5,635
  • Jun 7, 2007 1:09pm Jun 7, 2007 1:09pm
looks like we are in the eye of the hurricane
  • #5,636
  • Jun 7, 2007 1:09pm Jun 7, 2007 1:09pm
It looks like it's almost time to run with the bulls again, GBPJPY is extremely oversold and GBPUSD is looking fit to go up again. The deciding factor will be price action during Tokyo. This could be a beautiful dip, or a short term trend change.

Good luck guys.
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #5,637
  • Jun 7, 2007 1:11pm Jun 7, 2007 1:11pm
Quoting Nacho_1975
looks like we are in the eye of the hurricane
exactly
  • #5,638
  • Jun 7, 2007 1:12pm Jun 7, 2007 1:12pm
Quoting el_duende
Out of interest here is USD/JPY daily chart with fib levels 120.50 NEXT?
nice chart.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #5,639
  • Jun 7, 2007 1:24pm Jun 7, 2007 1:24pm
Quoting Plutonite
It looks like it's almost time to run with the bulls again, GBPJPY is extremely oversold and GBPUSD is looking fit to go up again. The deciding factor will be price action during Tokyo. This could be a beautiful dip, or a short term trend change.

Good luck guys.

In my humble opinion it is not likely to reverse now, as these new lows - lows under the supporting level of 239,60-40 - have been made. As long as the hourly trend is still down I am continuing to seek short entries. This might take more than 24 hours.
Rgds.
tiku.
always expect the unexpected!
  • #5,640
  • Jun 7, 2007 1:31pm Jun 7, 2007 1:31pm
as a expert/pro trader.

my analysis tells me the longs are not out of the rough yet.

considering BE or sl=238.50.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
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