Let's Trade Options

also, trading time spreads on expiry day is time consuming, need to be checking on positions m/l constantly until everything comes off. Not the best scenario for a working man.

...those went to >2x net now. Pretty cool, 3x on one end and 2x or better on the other.

Out of the following:

MMM Oct27 91 CALL at $1.80 up from $1.12

I had put in a sell order just as a place keeper until I got back from some errands, but it was hit before I got back. It still has some upside left, so I'll see if I can't get into it again right before the close. Didn't plan on getting out now, but still a nice little profit.

I've actually traded them before, just as a gamble periodically. I think it needs to be a big move and early in the day to make it a true trade rather than the roll of a dice. Periodically, my charts may show something, but they are few and far between. If the stars alighn with my charts and 0DTE options, I might get some if they are cheap, otherwise I just watch from the sidelines.

yeah, very dicey...my call flys went to perfection, but I sold them at be....fml....embarrasing

“It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I’ve known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine–that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon.” - Jesse Livermore

Be right, sit tight. Got it.

I did some put SPY flys for Monday....after hours is a good time for bargain hunting on the 1dte's

For hacks like me at least now there are some decent options...

You may disagree, but all trading is gambling. I am trying to look at these 1dte setups as a daily income play. If I could use them to make a few hundred bucks (or a few thou) per day, that would be worthwhile.

I have to go 1dte in retirement accounts, but can go 0dte in non-retirement accounts. (If I open/close trades in the same day with my pinche broker (PB), they shoot me the "good faith" warnings.)

I could see doing these using fly combos of SPX, XSP, and SPY, but also IWM/RUT, and NDX/QQQ. Actually, I think it'd be a challenge to have a high win rate with them daily, but there are various recurring event-days where you can exploit the expected move or moves beyond that.

I'd do them in a dedicated account so they didn't get confused with other same name spread trades for longer duration. I probly have to open an IB or tastyworks account to do these in, using multi-leg American options trades with my PB is commission-inefficient & prohibitively expensive.

For now I am just testing.

assuming the expected move (em) in XSP/SPY is $3, I'd set up the flys with the inside wing strike close to or inside the em. I'd break the outside wing by a buck. Then I'd go long calls on the outside symmetrical wing strike, i.e., $1 in from the broke-wing strike. Would do it bi-directionally on days when there is expected volatility, market-moving data, mega-cap earnings, etc. As shown, the 20-lot singles in XSP would be 2-lot SPX. My PB's software gets confused if there are too many competing legs.

The plan would be to look for trading days where you can expect good moves overnight, or good moves the following morning. The worst case is you get no move at all, and you have to decide early the following day to fold the whole thing. If you did that early, you might get away with only a 30% loss m/l.

Generally, the plan should be to close profitable positions early, as theta really starts to eat into the otm options after 11AM or so. If there's enough numbers and it looks promising, you can hold some out til the last hours.

You don't have to trade bi-directionally. Doing so will m/l double the cost of the trade, but could increase the chance of making good profit. Sometimes, you might make profit on both sides, as I did today. Double-sided trade in PA that goes nowhere means loss is amplified. I'm no better than 50% right in picking market direction. Actually, lately there has been a lot of sideways action, with trading ranges broken & re-established by occasional big multi-day moves. If we ever see an actual trending market again, the 0dte or 1dte fly trade would be a good way to capture those predictable moves. The next bull market just around the bend, I hear, & that's the most likely place to find trending in the indices like that.

Anyway, I'll be trying a while longer. I don't recommend anyone try to follow. Gotta be an easier way to make a buck. Stressful, also.

a fellow of infinite jest, of most excellent fancy...where be your gibes now, your gambols......?

....Was thinking Monday would give back some of Friday's big gain. Actually, Mondays have been bullish lately - 9 of the last 10 Mondays have been green. It was small and not hedged, so not worried about a loss.

playing with my double-ended fly some more. these look better, have a chance of pinning the em, maybe make profit on both sides in a ping-pong market. 10-lot SPY & 1-lot singles in XSP. If you have a directional bias, increase the single fraction. could also do 1-lot SPX to 10 lot XSP or SPY. I'll trade these every day for a week & see how it goes. I think I will start a new thread for these 1dte flys. Check it out..........https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...4#post14608774

I trade so I can play the Powerball.

https://www.powerball.com/watch-drawing

(....I didn't win....)

Hi, what kind of software you are using?

the screenshots I show are from Thinkorswim, now owned by Schwab, which just acquired TDAmeritrade, which bought Thinkorswim many years ago.

extreme skew...I'm sitting on SPY Oct9 $423/425/427 put flys .....could be interesting if the sell-off holds to NYO...

will be watching this skew for Monday, but looking like selling SPX put verts could be a good idea - as shown it's 10/9 4225/4200 for $2.10 credit, way down at 10 delta

when there's a lot of skew, the fly P/L form is skewed south....I am lookin for $425 or lower & will close early if I get that.

edit: ...DIDN'T get the follow-thru from overnight, but I held on for a little better than 2x