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  • #112,341
  • Oct 6, 2023 6:53am Oct 6, 2023 6:53am
If NFP is positives, normally good for the USD. Yet pa still rises. Opposite of the normal news reaction. This may be more a technical st exhaustion run. 0862ish or 0406 ish next. 0655 is mid ways to 0862
I like 0835, but pa being below 0700 with a quarter close below, often runs 600+ pips.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #112,342
  • Oct 6, 2023 7:09am Oct 6, 2023 7:09am
Quoting gatorinla
If NFP is positives, normally good for the USD. Yet pa still rises. Opposite of the normal news reaction. This may be more a technical st exhaustion run. 0862ish or 0406 ish next. 0655 is mid ways to 0862 I like 0835, but pa being below 0700 with a quarter close below, often runs 600+ pips. {image}
600+ pips downside right?
Follow the trend or do not burn in a mid area...thats the question
  • #112,343
  • Oct 6, 2023 7:23am Oct 6, 2023 7:23am
my gamble, 614 sell order
  • #112,344
  • Oct 6, 2023 7:31am Oct 6, 2023 7:31am
Quoting gatorinla
If NFP is positives, normally good for the USD. Yet pa still rises. Opposite of the normal news reaction. This may be more a technical st exhaustion run. 0862ish or 0406 ish next. 0655 is mid ways to 0862 I like 0835, but pa being below 0700 with a quarter close below, often runs 600+ pips. {image}
336k is a strong number. Versus 170k estimated. If pa ends up back above 0565/76. Its likely to run
Number is USD positive.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #112,345
  • Oct 6, 2023 7:55am Oct 6, 2023 7:55am
Quoting Ferna
{quote} somehow i think the greenback will spike up no matter results. I closed the longs, but keeping long nat gas open. maybe the japanese currency will come in strong?
Bad for trading. What's it doing, where is it doing what? The number job number is double the estimate. Fundi wise EU should fall. Europe is importing NG from the U.S.A. A cold winter forecast would help your NG trade. This week closing below 0466 would be below a support. 0406 may be next. Not closing today below 0466 could force some rise. The eu likes 100 pip riddles.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #112,346
  • Oct 6, 2023 7:59am Oct 6, 2023 7:59am
Quoting gatorinla
last quarter expired support at 0450.. I have pendings 0565 +. {image}
I got buy with other trades I opted out and cancelled this one Yes, I do regret it
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #112,347
  • Edited 9:40am Oct 6, 2023 8:07am | Edited 9:40am
In sequence 0466 is below 0565. The news suggest 0466, and deeper. The trend being down that is logical. The employment number is very strong. Not closing below 0466 may allow some rise. Today has completed the 70 pips of adr. Its an average. A -1.0466 close is well above the day average. A close today above 0565/76 is more a technical reject. It would take big balls to get back above 0565. We all have tiny balls. We can't compete. If today or next week pa gets back above 1.0565/76/92 . It may be best to let it run before shorting.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #112,348
  • Oct 6, 2023 8:42am Oct 6, 2023 8:42am
Quoting gatorinla
In sequence 0466 is below 0565. The news suggest 0466, and deeper. The trend being down that is logical. The employment number is very strong. Not closing below 0466 may allow some rise. Today has completed the 70 pips of adr. Its an average. A -1.0466 close is well above the day average. A close today above 0565/76 is more a technical reject. It would take big balls to get back above 0565. We all have tiny balls. We can't compete. If today or next week pa gets back above 05/6576/92. It may be best to let it run before shorting.
The employment number is very strong, but Unemployment Rate (Sep) is higher than consensus & Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Sep) is lower than consensus...and the week 12 will be again in red or not ?...
I am who I am
  • #112,349
  • Oct 6, 2023 8:51am Oct 6, 2023 8:51am
Will be interesting now... Problem is BOJ has to keep USD down. They stopped to intervene at 149 on USD/JPY before news. Wise decision but what now?
Do they let Dollar soar again up? Really interesting if EUR/USD really will plunge more down, GBP/USD even more difficult.
I sure Dollar will strengthen in next hour High Volume of covering is over. Let's see how BOJ will handle that now.
  • #112,350
  • Oct 6, 2023 9:37am Oct 6, 2023 9:37am
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it may still fall
  • #112,351
  • Oct 6, 2023 9:38am Oct 6, 2023 9:38am
Quoting gatorinla
In sequence 0466 is below 0565. The news suggest 0466, and deeper. The trend being down that is logical. The employment number is very strong. Not closing below 0466 may allow some rise. Today has completed the 70 pips of adr. Its an average. A -1.0466 close is well above the day average. A close today above 0565/76 is more a technical reject. It would take big balls to get back above 0565. We all have tiny balls. We can't compete. If today or next week pa gets back above 05/6576/92. It may be best to let it run before shorting....
Let me fix this number. 1.0565/76/92 Typo earlier.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #112,352
  • Oct 6, 2023 9:45am Oct 6, 2023 9:45am
Quoting imwim
{quote} The employment number is very strong, but Unemployment Rate (Sep) is higher than consensus & Average Hourly Earnings MoM (Sep) is lower than consensus...and the week 12 will be again in red or not ?...
A higher UE rate suggest people are looking for a job, returning to the job market. It will have more people working. More people working, puts more money in the economy. More demand for a job, lowers wages. Savings rates are lower, that and higher borrowing cost may be forcing more people in the job market. The unemployment rate always historically tick's up when people on the sideline return looking to work. More people working increases GDP.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #112,353
  • Oct 6, 2023 10:04am Oct 6, 2023 10:04am
week ... ends
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I will succeed Not immediately... but definitely
  • #112,354
  • Oct 6, 2023 10:06am Oct 6, 2023 10:06am
Quoting Ferna
{quote} I guess if job number go up while unemployment is the same, it means that as many employees left as were hired. If more were hired then those who left, unemployment would go down? So overall neutral, i.e alot of people going into retirement and stabile conditions for hiring. Where can one get accurate forecast for temperatures for winter in europe? I think temperature is the most essential, cause we got alot of wind turbines. Real low temperatures tend to slow em down, while high temperatures makes good difference between in pressure between...
They are general rules that dont always work. No matter how strong a currency is, or should be. The market has to keep up. Europe, China, Japan has negative energy. The U.S. has a net positive. The U.S. was positive until about 1970. The U.S. became positive again about 2009. After the 2008 crash. Energy is a tax on China and Europe. Every fiber of the modern world uses energy. Each time the energy deficit countries turn on the furnace, or fuel up the car. It helps the USD. Over time the USD will be closer to 1970 levels versus the Euro.

People especially in my country, think labor is the major cost. In heavy industrial manufacturing. So when someone tells you this. Take note: they dont know what the F they are talking about. To build a car in the U.S. Labor cost is aground 4%. Energy is about 60% plus. The reality is, it's cheaper to produce things. The place the cheaper the energy is. Placing energy on a ship is expensive. The reason E auto makers come here.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #112,355
  • Oct 6, 2023 10:19am Oct 6, 2023 10:19am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} They are general rules that dont always work. No matter how strong a currency is, or should be. The market has to keep up. Europe, China, Japan has negative energy. The U.S. has a net positive. The U.S. was positive until about 1970. The U.S. became positive again about 2009. After the 2008 crash. Energy is a tax on China and Europe. Every fiber of the modern world uses energy. Each time the energy deficit countries turn on the furnace, or fuel up the car. It helps the USD. Over time the USD will be closer to 1970 levels versus the Euro....
I will pull some numbers out my ass. Let's assume the cost to build a car in Germany is closer to U.S. wages. The German energy cost would be greater than the U.S. energy cost. That makes it cheaper to produce in the U.S.
Lets put that ass number on China or S. Korea. Where labor i closer to 1% of the cost. That makes the energy cost percentage even greater. First off, the energy has to be shipped to that country. Shipping is not cheap. Second these export economies have to put the finished product on another ship. To bring it to the import consumers. That makes the 4% U.S. labor cost look a lot better.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #112,356
  • Oct 6, 2023 10:27am Oct 6, 2023 10:27am
So after the great employment news you will see a lot of reasons price went up. Citi Goldman etc will be falling over themselves trying to explain this. This will come after a rise. PA dont give a shit. Money is fluid, it will seek its own level. Money goes where its wanted. That may just be 0592. But I plan to sell higher. If its not going to 0406.. 0592 would be safer. The year pp is 0576.. I will try for 1.0700 or 0835/62. But I may have egg on my face.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #112,357
  • Oct 6, 2023 10:35am Oct 6, 2023 10:35am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I will pull some numbers out my ass. Let's assume the cost to build a car in Germany is closer to U.S. wages. The German energy cost would be greater than the U.S. energy cost. That makes it cheaper to produce in the U.S. Lets put that ass number on China or S. Korea. Where labor i closer to 1% of the cost. That makes the energy cost percentage even greater. First off, the energy has to be shipped to that country. Shipping is not cheap. Second these export economies have to put the finished product on another ship. To bring it to the import...
Just to be fair. Mexico has energy, although they are not producing like they once did. The labor cost is about 0.5% of U.S. with fewer environmental regulations. With the NAFTA they have access to pipelines energy etc. Mexico may be a better choice for some companies over USA or Canada. Every place has pros, and cons.

Man if the Russians silenced Putin, they would be bad azz.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #112,358
  • Oct 6, 2023 10:37am Oct 6, 2023 10:37am
Quoting gatorinla
In sequence 0466 is below 0565. The news suggest 0466, and deeper. The trend being down that is logical. The employment number is very strong. Not closing below 0466 may allow some rise. Today has completed the 70 pips of adr. Its an average. A -1.0466 close is well above the day average. A close today above 0565/76 is more a technical reject. It would take big balls to get back above 0565. We all have tiny balls. We can't compete. If today or next week pa gets back above 1.0565/76/92 . It may be best to let it run before shorting....
Knowing you have small balls hurts less.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #112,359
  • Oct 6, 2023 10:50am Oct 6, 2023 10:50am
Once price crossed 0474-76-92, after the inability to stay down. I dont stand in its way. These may support. Later 0610 R may support
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #112,360
  • Oct 6, 2023 11:23am Oct 6, 2023 11:23am
Hardly staying away to sell everything against usd not for mid term but for a few weeks at least
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