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USDCAD trend reversal?

  • #541
  • Jun 6, 2007 8:02am Jun 6, 2007 8:02am
Quoting shadeslay
lol not sure, but they have some leverage

I wonder how much capitol it takes to move it like that?
Quoting Scrat
couple of billions... probably not as much as it would take during the day. speculation.
Someone in Japan likes the CAD...
  • #542
  • Jun 6, 2007 8:27am Jun 6, 2007 8:27am
Quoting bluebuddha
Someone in Japan likes the CAD...
I would say say so, they are putting alot of pressure on it. I had this pegged for a slow crawl up for the next day until they got into the mix. Not that I mind I'll capitalize on their moves.
  • #543
  • Jun 6, 2007 8:34am Jun 6, 2007 8:34am
Quoting shadeslay
I would say say so, they are putting alot of pressure on it. I had this pegged for a slow crawl up for the next day until they got into the mix. Not that I mind I'll capitalize on their moves.
News coming in 25
  • #544
  • Jun 6, 2007 9:18am Jun 6, 2007 9:18am
i see to beyond expected news regarding USDCAD, but loonie keeps strike...
well.. i don't know what the market sees....

Well, technically it is still strong south isn't ?
  • #545
  • Jun 6, 2007 9:24am Jun 6, 2007 9:24am
Quoting veematics
i see to beyond expected news regarding USDCAD, but loonie keeps strike...
well.. i don't know what the market sees....

Well, technically it is still strong south isn't ?
yes, all red along the different TF... No sign of reversal at all (why should there be ??? )
  • #546
  • Jun 6, 2007 9:29am Jun 6, 2007 9:29am
Quoting veematics
Well, technically it is still strong south isn't ?
I dunno mate, you tell me...
Attached Image
  • #547
  • Jun 6, 2007 9:29am Jun 6, 2007 9:29am
Quoting cesarnc
News coming in 25
2 bearish ones in a row, didn't see that coming how strong they have been, doubt it will put much of a dent in the fall down though.
  • #548
  • Jun 6, 2007 10:16am Jun 6, 2007 10:16am
in retrospect, i shouldn't have pulled all my short usdcad positions yesterday.
but . profit is profit.

keeping an eye on this pair.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #549
  • Jun 6, 2007 6:30pm Jun 6, 2007 6:30pm
anyone shorting USD/CAD now?
  • #550
  • Jun 6, 2007 8:04pm Jun 6, 2007 8:04pm
If someone wants to average a position out, now I feel would be a good time to take a small position long and hold it. Most analysts take is the lowest the pair could go on the near term would be almost or at par with the dollar, even though I don't feel it may go that far so soon, but will get there eventually.

Technically though, on my chart I see a pattern breaking with the price action, where there is congestion forming and the pair ranging within a less than a hundred pips range. Even with some impact news arriving, the pair didnt really break the range, which is a pattern break for me since the drop started in May. The pair I think still has room to go to the 105 level and thats where I will start averaging my position in the opposite way making a position equivalent to 1 - 2 standard lots combined with a stop jus below the par level with a take profit target to the 1.10 area.

The risk in my view is that even with the retracement it may not go all the way to 1.10 area and may form a range of 200-300 pips for sometime, if I see that in the price action I will move my stops to break even or just above if the price range allows for it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CAD 4hr.jpg Size: 50 KB
  • #551
  • Edited 5:05am Jun 7, 2007 5:00am | Edited 5:05am
I don't see anything to suggest we have a bottom yet. all i see is some congestion. it could be just taking a breath? or it could hang out here a bit, maybe months, it is summer duldrum time. or maybe it could dart north which would make elliott wavers happy.

there, I feel like an analyst, I've covered every thing without saying anything!
  • #552
  • Jun 7, 2007 6:07am Jun 7, 2007 6:07am
Quoting WTB
I dunno mate, you tell me...
great chart...now, just update it...it might be about time for this market to put in a double bottom...and start a rally...would be a very common action..lets see
  • #553
  • Jun 7, 2007 7:14am Jun 7, 2007 7:14am
Quoting peter100
great chart...now, just update it...
Sure thing

My Trade Plan: if that triangle bottom and 1.0550 gives way, it's an open door for a new swing down to 1.0500. If 1.0600 breaks to the upside, I remain sidelined.
Attached Image
  • #554
  • Jun 7, 2007 7:48am Jun 7, 2007 7:48am
Now THAT was fun.....

  • #555
  • Jun 7, 2007 7:58am Jun 7, 2007 7:58am
  • #556
  • Jun 7, 2007 8:18am Jun 7, 2007 8:18am
Quoting WillyT
there, I feel like an analyst, I've covered every thing without saying anything!
excellent.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #557
  • Jun 7, 2007 8:24am Jun 7, 2007 8:24am
Quoting cesarnc
Now THAT was fun.....

What was fun Cesar?
  • #558
  • Jun 7, 2007 8:41am Jun 7, 2007 8:41am
Quoting WTB
What was fun Cesar?
last 1hr candle... and my short 0618
  • #559
  • Jun 7, 2007 8:42am Jun 7, 2007 8:42am
Quoting cesarnc
last 1hr candle... and my short 0618
What did you base that short on if I may ask?

Thank you.
  • #560
  • Jun 7, 2007 8:49am Jun 7, 2007 8:49am
Quoting WTB
What did you base that short on if I may ask?

Thank you.
100 hour ema + I'm selling USD rallies in USDCAD. Next would be 0650, never happened.... No new lows today, I TP and reduce position for the next round
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