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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #5,581
  • Jun 7, 2007 8:13am Jun 7, 2007 8:13am
...tough nut to crack. Even if this level is breached, 239.60 is even tougher to break. I still remember it took a few weeks to break through the 239.60 resistance. I'm long here @ 240.60 and will add one more long @ 239.60 if necessary. Happy pipping!
  • #5,582
  • Jun 7, 2007 8:13am Jun 7, 2007 8:13am
240.5 looks to be a strong resistance...lets see how long it holds....
  • #5,583
  • Jun 7, 2007 8:15am Jun 7, 2007 8:15am
Quoting ns_karthik
240.5 looks to be a strong resistance...lets see how long it holds....
all about the stock market, again... Another blood bath?
  • #5,584
  • Jun 7, 2007 8:20am Jun 7, 2007 8:20am
Quoting bravado
if you are long above or at current level, don't be alarmed. just make sure you are using sensible MM.

if you are looking to long, wait.

shorting this pair should be avoided as much as possible, but in fav atm with not much to gain (depending on what you consider 'much').

look for retest of previous low, 240.80-241.00.
Short when it reaches daily/weekly high. Long when it is 100-200 pips off daily/weekly high. Never use stop loss when long. If you're caught in drawdown, just sit back, relax and enjoy the swap. How can one lose?
  • #5,585
  • Jun 7, 2007 8:27am Jun 7, 2007 8:27am
Quoting bravado
look for retest of previous low, 240.80-241.00.
an extention of a retest, there maybe an attempt to touch the previous congested area at 241.50 this week.

be cautious going long there.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #5,586
  • Jun 7, 2007 8:33am Jun 7, 2007 8:33am
Quoting melpheos
I stick with my long even if they are loosing big time now. I'm here to stay. I still have a heck of margin at disposal and i'm going to buy on dips ^^

239 would be fine for me
melpheos, since you are long above current level, you need to keep your mind on the fundamentals. look for any major and significant news about carry trades unwinding.

that's not to scare you.

we have not seen the top of this pair yet.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #5,587
  • Jun 7, 2007 8:36am Jun 7, 2007 8:36am
Quoting cesarnc
all about the stock market, again... Another blood bath?
I can't see it falling past 239.60 even if 240.60 is breached. We're at the level where interest were expected at 5.50%.
  • #5,588
  • Jun 7, 2007 8:36am Jun 7, 2007 8:36am
Quoting bravado
an extention of a retest, there maybe an attempt to touch the previous congested area at 241.50 this week.

be cautious going long there.
Bet you can loose! I just had a nice short trip today
I cashed out already - but I assume it will continue after a rest. Once the 239.70 to 239.40 area is gives way, there is room for another 200 to 500 pips down. If it holds - well then I might consider some long entry also.
Bye
t.
always expect the unexpected!
  • #5,589
  • Jun 7, 2007 8:41am Jun 7, 2007 8:41am
Quoting tiku
..Once the 239.70 to 239.40 area is gives way, there is room for another 200 to 500 pips down..
i know this.

however, it would need significant fundamental push and the crowd, mass, herd, interpretation of that event there of.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #5,590
  • Jun 7, 2007 8:45am Jun 7, 2007 8:45am
going down to say 234 or 235 is out of the question as long as there is no fundamental reason behind it. a drop of about 700-800 pips need to have a strong fundamental reason associated with it...
  • #5,591
  • Jun 7, 2007 8:46am Jun 7, 2007 8:46am
Huge rebound off the lows in DJ.... when green, I'm adding
  • #5,592
  • Jun 7, 2007 8:48am Jun 7, 2007 8:48am
Quoting bravado
i know this.

however, it would need significant fundamental push and the crowd, mass, herd, interpretation of that event there of.
A larger scale unwind only occurs if there's reason for carry traders to believe there will be a rate hike for the yen, in which all yen crosses fall feeding off one another. But Fukui has "assured" us again and again this year it is unlikely.

Euro is expected another rate hike. That will only help the upside. Once EJ starts taking off again, it will drag GJ along.
  • #5,593
  • Jun 7, 2007 8:51am Jun 7, 2007 8:51am
Quoting Pipsqueak
A larger scale unwind only occurs if there's reason for carry traders to believe there will be a rate hike for the yen, in which all yen crosses fall feeding off one another. But Fukui has "assured" us again and again this year it is unlikely.

Euro is expected another rate hike. That will only help the upside. Once EJ starts taking off again, it will drag GJ along.
That plus:

05:54**JAPAN**WATANABE SEES NO IMMEDIATE RISK OF CARRY TRADES UNWINDING"
  • #5,594
  • Jun 7, 2007 9:00am Jun 7, 2007 9:00am
Quoting bravado
melpheos, since you are long above current level, you need to keep your mind on the fundamentals. look for any major and significant news about carry trades unwinding.

that's not to scare you.

we have not seen the top of this pair yet.
Fundamentals say that Yen is underevaluated by around 20% so Fundamentals say that everyone should short the pair...

But yen is underevaluated because of carry trading. Heck, you can borrow money for free in Japan, convert it and put it on +10% earning market.

If rate was 0.5% in Europe, how far do you think euro would have gone down allready vs $...

ATM, € is strong vs because of fundamentals and rate.

Yen is weak because of rate only (fudamentals are not in the party until Japan shows some inflation going on - which should appear sooner or later as oil price rises and Yen value decreases )
  • #5,595
  • Jun 7, 2007 9:04am Jun 7, 2007 9:04am
09:59 Interesting developments here in the equity, fixed income, and currency markets. The crowds believed the equity selling would fast and furious once the 10 yr yield printed 5.0. Well it’s arrived, and the equities are surprisingly putting a higher gap-close effort forth. The key will be the 10:00-10:30 hour in the equities, which is often the time dealers work out of their positions from overnight institutional orders. If we see the equity markets start to turn heavy in the next 30 mins, while the 10 year rate remains above 5.0%, the carry crosses including EURJPY and EURCHF could be in for some selling.

This source is calling doomsday in NYC after 10yr above 5% for weeks already.... Now, 10yr goes to 5.05%, DJ is going up and - AS USUAL - they go "interesting development"




  • #5,596
  • Jun 7, 2007 9:15am Jun 7, 2007 9:15am
Looks like Dow could be on the way down again to me. Another rough day in NYC is going to make for an interesting Friday to say the least.
  • #5,597
  • Jun 7, 2007 9:53am Jun 7, 2007 9:53am
Hello everyone,

I believe that the GBP/JPY will continue up this year, the up trend is pretty signifficant. I am wondering only what is going to happen regarding the top of August 1998 which has been reached again. Do you think that beating the 1998 top will help to move the pair up signifficantly?

Will appreciate your opinion.

Thanks

Mike
  • #5,598
  • Jun 7, 2007 9:54am Jun 7, 2007 9:54am
been hunting for a bargain for this pair for some time now.

sweet.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #5,599
  • Jun 7, 2007 10:18am Jun 7, 2007 10:18am
This pair continues to surprise me, when I leave from the computer. I was gladly adding more and more longs and was sure it will reach 242.50 today . Damn, I will buy at 239.70. Until there, I guess its short time.
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #5,600
  • Jun 7, 2007 10:23am Jun 7, 2007 10:23am
Nice deep dip to re-enter my longs.
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