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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #5,561
  • Jun 6, 2007 11:12pm Jun 6, 2007 11:12pm
Quoting ryanmel
there is bearish divergence on the RSI, Daily chart..
although, this most recent down move could be it already playing out.
my 2c
Ya I normally play off the 1h to 4h charts so I'm trading more for the day. That being said the 4h is showing signs of turning now as well.
  • #5,562
  • Jun 6, 2007 11:36pm Jun 6, 2007 11:36pm
Quoting Big P
What are your targets for GJ?
243 this week
248 this month!
  • #5,563
  • Jun 7, 2007 1:10am Jun 7, 2007 1:10am
Long 241.14 gbpjpy
short 121.80 usdjpy

Quoting 4x_Trader
Pls allow me to update:

GBPJPY 240.87 (-27 pips)
USDJPY 120.88 (+90 pips)

buy on dips my friend 240.55 is hard to crack!
GBPJPY 241.88 (+74 pips)
USDJPY 121.30 (+50 pips)

243 will do 'til tom! big bucks big bucks big bucks....
  • #5,564
  • Jun 7, 2007 1:29am Jun 7, 2007 1:29am
That´s a nice start for us Europeans....GBPJPY + 57 in 34 mins and the Frankfurters haven´t even finished their first coffee!

Stopped at the 242 number, now how far will it retrace?
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #5,565
  • Jun 7, 2007 1:40am Jun 7, 2007 1:40am
EJ looks good for a long at the moment? what do you think? do you think we will see 164.60 soon?
  • #5,566
  • Jun 7, 2007 1:42am Jun 7, 2007 1:42am
Haven't done a projection for g/j, but I have u/j coming up to the 121.50-80 range, figure u/j moves a little less then 2/3 of what g/j is currently moving. So maybe ruff guess of 242.50-243, any more then that is just a plus.

A side note, projections aren't much more then guesses.
  • #5,567
  • Jun 7, 2007 1:56am Jun 7, 2007 1:56am
Quoting shadeslay
Haven't done a projection for g/j, but I have u/j coming up to the 121.50-80 range, figure u/j moves a little less then 2/3 of what g/j is currently moving. So maybe ruff guess of 242.50-243, any more then that is just a plus.

A side note, projections aren't much more then guesses.
I´m hoping GY will retrace to around 50% of this mornings rally - to the 241.65/70 area and set up another buy for a run up thru the 242 number.

Then I see resistance around 242.30 and then 242.55 on the way to the 243 number.....we´ll see.
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #5,568
  • Jun 7, 2007 1:57am Jun 7, 2007 1:57am
Quoting shadeslay
Haven't done a projection for g/j, but I have u/j coming up to the 121.50-80 range, figure u/j moves a little less then 2/3 of what g/j is currently moving. So maybe ruff guess of 242.50-243, any more then that is just a plus.

A side note, projections aren't much more then guesses.

Using fibs we have a poss move to the upside of 242.24 ( being start of yesterdays down move) with an extension at 242.68 ( 127.2 fib), Hourly CCi's and RSI's are going to the upside but we need to break the 100cci on the dailys to really see some change.

Bagavino studies showing long at present.
  • #5,569
  • Jun 7, 2007 2:00am Jun 7, 2007 2:00am
Quoting Islander
I´m hoping GY will retrace to around 50% of this mornings rally - to the 241.65/70 area and set up another buy for a run up thru the 242 number.

Then I see resistance around 242.30 and then 242.55 on the way to the 243 number.....we´ll see.
I see that as a realistic view.
  • #5,570
  • Jun 7, 2007 2:24am Jun 7, 2007 2:24am
Quoting Islander
I´m hoping GY will retrace to around 50% of this mornings rally - to the 241.65/70 area and set up another buy for a run up thru the 242 number.

Then I see resistance around 242.30 and then 242.55 on the way to the 243 number.....we´ll see.
Sounds like a solid plan, might not get the full 50% just hasn't been moving like it used too. But there is news later which could spur into moving a bit better.
  • #5,571
  • Jun 7, 2007 2:25am Jun 7, 2007 2:25am
Quoting Islander
I´m hoping GY will retrace to around 50% of this mornings rally - to the 241.65/70 area and set up another buy for a run up thru the 242 number.

Then I see resistance around 242.30 and then 242.55 on the way to the 243 number.....we´ll see.
It came back to my buy area - bought at 241.78 - then exploded thru the 242 number - I guess on buy stops - found no more buyers so dropped back - out +28 - now I´ll let it settle down and watch for a bit
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #5,572
  • Jun 7, 2007 3:07am Jun 7, 2007 3:07am
Just sold the break of the 50% support - also 5 min uptrend since yesterday evening broken - but only a half position as I´m not yet totally convinced that the 241 number will be hit - BOE etc may dampen volatility this morning
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #5,573
  • Jun 7, 2007 3:34am Jun 7, 2007 3:34am
Quoting Islander
Just sold the break of the 50% support - also 5 min uptrend since yesterday evening broken - but only a half position as I´m not yet totally convinced that the 241 number will be hit - BOE etc may dampen volatility this morning
Out at BE - no follow thru.....no more trading till after BOE....keeping pips safe in the bank
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #5,574
  • Jun 7, 2007 6:29am Jun 7, 2007 6:29am
S&P futures positive, God permits dow jones to recover a little...

You guys noticed China today? Average +3%

So, when China was crashing, dow jones was going up. Now China is sound and safe, Dow Jones down the whole.... Go figure.
  • #5,575
  • Jun 7, 2007 7:27am Jun 7, 2007 7:27am
Closing my GJ shorts from Friday last week. Have been waiting for this baby to go below the 240.12 S2 level but to no immediate avail.

On the sidelines till after the USD data and a direction is confirmed.

.
  • #5,576
  • Jun 7, 2007 7:48am Jun 7, 2007 7:48am
A major investment name came out yesterday calling for a 14% drop in equities. 10 year is trading above 5% and the equity community is now decidedly nervous about stock prices. Pick ur poison, but this news should spell lower crosses and lower high yielders

ooer
  • #5,577
  • Jun 7, 2007 7:53am Jun 7, 2007 7:53am
Quoting forex_newbie
Have been waiting for this baby to go below the 240.12 S2 level but to no immediate avail.
.
239 is feasible at this point.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #5,578
  • Jun 7, 2007 8:00am Jun 7, 2007 8:00am
if you are long above or at current level, don't be alarmed. just make sure you are using sensible MM.

if you are looking to long, wait.

shorting this pair should be avoided as much as possible, but in fav atm with not much to gain (depending on what you consider 'much').

look for retest of previous low, 240.80-241.00.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #5,579
  • Jun 7, 2007 8:03am Jun 7, 2007 8:03am
Today, 8:05am
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Pound falls after BoE leaves rates unchanged
(LONDON) Thomson Financial - The pound was weaker after the Bank of England left interest rates unchanged at 5.50 pct, as expected, but disappointing a minority of investors who were betting on a hike.

Although the BoE's decision was expected by analysts, there was a 20 pct probability priced into fixed income markets for a hike, leaving the pound vulnerable to the verdict of unchanged rates.

'The jettisoning of some speculative long positions has helped depress the pound to a fresh three-day low,' said Robert Howard at Thomson's IFR Markets.

Despite today's verdict, however, interest rates are still expected to rise in coming months.

'The BoE's decision to leave interest rates unchanged may well prove to be only a temporary reprieve, as we suspect that another 25 basis point hike to 5.75 pct could arrive as soon as July,' said Howard Archer at Global Insight.

He said firms' confidence in raising prices, high money growth and capacity constraints are likely to offset some gradual easing in house price inflation.

'While it is very possible that interest rates will eventually reach 6.00 pct, we currently forecast 5.75 pct to mark the peak,' he said.

The pound was also hurt by news released just before the BoE announcement that North Korea has test-fired some short-range missiles. The news, reported by a South Korean wire, have yet to be confirmed, but add to geopolitical tensions in the area.

It has also increased investors' risk aversion, hurting higher-yielding currencies like the pound and helping the dollar, traditionally a safe-haven in times of market jitters.

'We're seeing some very moderate risk aversion, which has brought the pound down and has given markets an excuse to sell the euro back down to yesterday's lows,' said Daragh Maher, currency strategist at Calyon.

He noted, however, that other high-yielding currencies, like the New Zealand dollar, have remained robust, suggesting investors are not flocking to undo risky trades.

London 1220 BST London 0925 BST
  • #5,580
  • Jun 7, 2007 8:04am Jun 7, 2007 8:04am
Quoting bravado
if you are long above or at current level, don't be alarmed. just make sure you are using sensible MM.

if you are looking to long, wait.

shorting this pair should be avoided as much as possible, but in fav atm with not much to gain (depending on what you consider 'much').

look for retest of previous low, 240.80-241.00.
usually it's when i start to short that the pair makes a rebound... boing boing...

I stick with my long even if they are loosing big time now. I'm here to stay. I still have a heck of margin at disposal and i'm going to buy on dips ^^

239 would be fine for me
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