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Harmonic Wave Journal

  • #401
  • Edited Jun 5, 2007 2:40am Jun 4, 2007 9:18am | Edited Jun 5, 2007 2:40am
Opportunity #E15/07
EUR/USD Long
3 parts
Entry: 1.3394
Stop (initial): 1.3354

End of subwave C down (?)(again!).

Update 1: Took 1st profit at 1.3424 (+30). S/L tightened to 1.3392 (guarantees -2).
Update 2: Set TP2 at 1.3468 for +74. S/L will move to 1.3402 once TP2 is hit.
Update 3: TP2 was hit (+74). S/L tightened to 1.3444 (guarantees +50). Set TP3 at 1.3524 for +130.
Update 4: S/L tightened to 1.3474 (guarantees +80).
Tra-X
  • #402
  • Jun 5, 2007 2:47am Jun 5, 2007 2:47am
Opportunity #G21/07
GBP/USD Short
3 parts
Entry: 1.9946
Stop (initial): 1.9996

End of wave C up (?).
Tra-X
  • #403
  • Jun 5, 2007 2:57am Jun 5, 2007 2:57am
Quoting Traex
Opportunity #G21/07
GBP/USD Short
3 parts
Entry: 1.9946
Stop (initial): 1.9996

End of wave C up (?).
Equal A=C leg length at 1.9945?
What down wave would follow after this C end?
I've no idea where we're at in the current count anymore
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #404
  • Jun 5, 2007 3:07am Jun 5, 2007 3:07am
Quoting SeekingLight
Equal A=C leg length at 1.9945?
What down wave would follow after this C end?
I've no idea where we're at in the current count anymore
It's currently in a mess, I agree. : There's an upper rising channel trendline in 9946 also.
Tra-X
  • #405
  • Jun 5, 2007 3:47am Jun 5, 2007 3:47am
Quoting Traex
It's currently in a mess, I agree. : There's an upper rising channel trendline in 9946 also.
I just saw Africanpip posted a really nice one over here
http://forexfactory.com/showpost.php...postcount=1563



Too bad fixme1too isn't active anymore it would seem.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #406
  • Jun 5, 2007 4:42am Jun 5, 2007 4:42am
Quoting SeekingLight
I just saw Africanpip posted a really nice one over here
http://forexfactory.com/showpost.php...postcount=1563



Too bad fixme1too isn't active anymore it would seem.
Thanks for the charts there. So it's either an a-b-c or a 5-wave (and the 5-wave could be either a normal impulse or diagonal triangle too!), and the smaller waves aren't clear also.
Attached Image
Tra-X
  • #407
  • Jun 5, 2007 8:40am Jun 5, 2007 8:40am
If we compare the time of the retracement in April and May with the time of the bullish swing before it, it seems the retracement has ended (the retracement takes about 60% of the time for the bullish swing) and we seems to be starting a new 5-wave pattern on the way up.

If this is another a-b-c for a bigger B wave, then the correction seems to be too long comparing to the bullish swing, because we will probably need another swing low for bigger wave C, then the time for the whole ABC pattern will be longer than the 5 wave bullish swing ... do you guys take time into consideration in wave counting?

Either way, Traex 's short seems to be reasonable at this point.

The ISM is coming in 30 min, do you guys pay attention to news at all?






Quoting Traex
Thanks for the charts there. So it's either an a-b-c or a 5-wave (and the 5-wave could be either a normal impulse or diagonal triangle too!), and the smaller waves aren't clear also.
Target: Trading naked.
  • #408
  • Edited 9:05am Jun 5, 2007 8:51am | Edited 9:05am
Quoting aha
The ISM is coming in 30 min, do you guys pay attention to news at all?

Hi aha, welcome to the journal.

Yea, I've noticed any alternate counts possible for cable, shown clearly in fixme1too's thread. I'm keeping my short tho at the moment, it's already opened, I need to follow my system strictly.
And yes, ISM non-manufacturing is coming soon, good luck to everyone.

Opportunity #G21/07
GBP/USD Short
3 parts
Entry: 1.9946
Stop (initial): 1.9996

End of wave C up (?).

Update 1: S/L tightened to 1.9968 (guarantees -22). Took 1st profit at 1.9921 (+25) during news spike.
Tra-X
  • #409
  • Jun 5, 2007 8:53am Jun 5, 2007 8:53am
Opportunity #E15/07
EUR/USD Long
3 parts
Entry: 1.3394
Stop (initial): 1.3354

End of subwave C down (?)(again!).

Update 1: Took 1st profit at 1.3424 (+30). S/L tightened to 1.3392 (guarantees -2).
Update 2: Set TP2 at 1.3468 for +74. S/L will move to 1.3402 once TP2 is hit.
Update 3: TP2 was hit (+74). S/L tightened to 1.3444 (guarantees +50). Set TP3 at 1.3524 for +130.
Update 4: S/L tightened to 1.3474 (guarantees +80).
Update 5: TP3 was hit, and trade is closed (+130).

Total gain: +234
Tra-X
  • #410
  • Jun 6, 2007 1:20am Jun 6, 2007 1:20am
Hi Traex, these are my thoughts from your chart posted yesterday.

Orange Wave 3 / C target is 2.618 of W1 = 9988. Magenta W5 = W1 at 9983.

Thus both are suggesting a final push higher, although I thought that yesterdays action in cable was very muted - a 55 pip range, very poor even by the current reduced action - last week´s average dailly range was 86 compared with 122 last year!

This casts some doubt on cable´s desire to make the final push up - the Asian session held at the 78% retrace of yesterdays sell off - but lets see what todays news does.

FYI I´m long at 9945 just after the Frankfurt Open
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #411
  • Jun 6, 2007 2:53am Jun 6, 2007 2:53am
Quoting Islander
Hi Traex, these are my thoughts from your chart posted yesterday.

FYI I´m long at 9945 just after the Frankfurt Open
Thanks for the calc, Islander. Well 1.9980 area is indeed important, next target area above yesterday's high, somemore it's stacked with the psychological 2.0. Waiting for next action. Good luck on your long there.

Attached is the 4h wave count, with the messy intertwining trendlines (the white ones form the channel I talked about yesterday).
Attached Image
Tra-X
  • #412
  • Jun 6, 2007 3:21am Jun 6, 2007 3:21am
Out of long for BE when it failed to follow the Euro higher and actually made a lower high - but was too slow to take my own ST sell.

Now sideways at minor support in 9930/25 area whilst the Brits finish their tea and bickies.....

IMO Euro needs to hold the 3511/08 area if cables going to head up again this morning - GBPJPY selling off´s not helping.
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #413
  • Jun 6, 2007 3:39am Jun 6, 2007 3:39am
Opportunity #G21/07
GBP/USD Short
3 parts
Entry: 1.9946
Stop (initial): 1.9996

End of wave C up (?).

Update 1: S/L tightened to 1.9968 (guarantees -22). Took 1st profit at 1.9921 (+25) during news spike.
Update 2: S/L tightened to 1.9959 (guarantees -13). Looking for a break below 9910 area now.
Tra-X
  • #414
  • Jun 6, 2007 1:48pm Jun 6, 2007 1:48pm
Hi everyone,
I hope you all now were the price is going so you all make good money
As for me I'm still seeing only 3 waves here, but I could be wrong.
The time factor right now is telling me 4th wave, and with the markets wrapping up now till tomorrow kind of enforces that veiw. Like Islander I thought that 1.9990+- should be tested before a pull back.
Any thoughts are welcome.

AZ
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_02 Jun. 06 11.38.jpg Size: 41 KB
I found the guy who keeps losing me money. Its "ME" SHOOT HIM!
  • #415
  • Jun 6, 2007 1:51pm Jun 6, 2007 1:51pm
The EUR/JPY could be worth watching.
What effect will this have to EUR/USD wave count.
Again, any thought are welcome
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_01 Jun. 06 11.24.jpg Size: 22 KB
I found the guy who keeps losing me money. Its "ME" SHOOT HIM!
  • #416
  • Jun 6, 2007 2:33pm Jun 6, 2007 2:33pm
EUR/USD I have two views, I favor the one with one more swing up to complete the 5th wave. But looking at USD/CHF I wonder. I can't tell if it is in a wave four of its own or not.

I don't like being on the opposite side of you Traex, and I get scared
Your doing a hell of a lot better then I am. I hope to have some of the returns that you have pulled out of the market, Again GREAT JOB!!!!!

Thoughts welcome,

AZ
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_03 Jun. 06 12.13.gif Size: 9 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_04 Jun. 06 12.14.gif Size: 10 KB
I found the guy who keeps losing me money. Its "ME" SHOOT HIM!
  • #417
  • Jun 6, 2007 5:01pm Jun 6, 2007 5:01pm
Hey Treax, I don't know how you do it, but I try to get up close and study the waves on 5 to15 minute charts after looking at the big picture to see were the 3 and 5 waves are. Then see how that fits in with the 1 to 4 hour.
I look for a conformation, if I count a good 5 or 3 then I start working it to higher time frames always keeping the larger count in mind. I have been pretty good at getting it right, but lack the skill of how to traade it properly, unlike you. I need more work in that area!

Example of counting on the lower time scale to help find the direction.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ScreenHunter_05 Jun. 06 14.59.jpg Size: 28 KB
I found the guy who keeps losing me money. Its "ME" SHOOT HIM!
  • #418
  • Jun 6, 2007 10:11pm Jun 6, 2007 10:11pm
Quoting AZ-Heat
Hey Treax, I don't know how you do it, but I try to get up close and study the waves on 5 to15 minute charts after looking at the big picture to see were the 3 and 5 waves are. Then see how that fits in with the 1 to 4 hour.
Example of counting on the lower time scale to help find the direction.
Hi AZ-Heat, wave counts in very small timeframe are very uncertain, so good luck in trying to figure them out.
This is my m5 EUR/USD count, only for comparison, I don't do wave labeling to that small tf actually. And from 1.3391 low to 1.3553 high, there's a complete 5-wave sequence imo.

PS This chart is not updated, I scrolled it to the left to the same display as yours above.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu m5 small.jpg Size: 55 KB
Tra-X
  • #419
  • Jun 6, 2007 10:36pm Jun 6, 2007 10:36pm
Now see, I did not see the ending diagonal triangle in wave C.
I need to look alittle harder so that I can see all the options.
I Thank You for taking the time to share your thoughts with me.
If you don't mind me hanging around your thread, I would like to be a pain in your ass. I feel that I could learn a lot from you to better my own trading
and if I talk to much just tell me, it won't hurt my feelings I can take it!

AZ
I found the guy who keeps losing me money. Its "ME" SHOOT HIM!
  • #420
  • Jun 6, 2007 11:02pm Jun 6, 2007 11:02pm
Quoting AZ-Heat
Now see, I did not see the ending diagonal triangle in wave C.
I need to look alittle harder so that I can see all the options.
I Thank You for taking the time to share your thoughts with me.
If you don't mind me hanging around your thread, I would like to be a pain in your ass. I feel that I could learn a lot from you to better my own trading
and if I talk to much just tell me, it won't hurt my feelings I can take it!

AZ
We're all still learning to trade here. And this is a forum, everyone can post what they like here as long as it doesn't violate forum rules. Thanks for sharing your views also. Keep it up!
Tra-X
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