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The Swamp

  • #112,281
  • Oct 1, 2023 4:32pm Oct 1, 2023 4:32pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} The Quarter close yesterday was below yearly pp 0576 and the 2023 close. That is a indication of more large bears to come. Taking out last week's low is probably very very bearish. There will be a a dynamic number on the open October 1. I speculate it will be very near Fridays close. Once below it, would have it sight on the low. PA is near the edge of a large fall. That Sunday number would also be a support. If it's not touched, price may be stuck. Momentum and trend looks to favor the fall. It may gap below that number. I dont know its...
I was wrong about the number being closer to 056x. A new low now is a likely (-0488) b/o. Dynamic number 0488. My guess was wrong. 0488 can support when near and above. PA is very bearish closing last week below 0576 ypp. Breakout is pa below 0488.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #112,282
  • Oct 1, 2023 5:06pm Oct 1, 2023 5:06pm
0576 at some point should be R. ypp 0576. year close 0700. The next support for me is 0488. Pa is very bearish. That 12 week candle is just gonna make me doubt things.
If I want to play the b/o. A lower low is what I need. Near 0488 that LL without it breaking down. The candle 12 week close green is on my mind.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #112,283
  • Oct 1, 2023 5:50pm Oct 1, 2023 5:50pm
According to Google Bard:

Here are some specific examples of how the US dollar has performed during past government shutdowns:

  1. 1995-1996 government shutdown: The US dollar strengthened by about 5% against a basket of major currencies during the 21-day shutdown.
  2. 2013 government shutdown: The US dollar strengthened by about 2% against a basket of major currencies during the 16-day shutdown.
  3. 2018-2019 government shutdown: The US dollar strengthened by about 1% against a basket of major currencies during the 35-day shutdown.

  • #112,284
  • Oct 1, 2023 5:53pm Oct 1, 2023 5:53pm
Quoting FT.Trader
According to Google Bard: Here are some specific examples of how the US dollar has performed during past government shutdowns: 1995-1996 government shutdown: The US dollar strengthened by about 5% against a basket of major currencies during the 21-day shutdown. 2013 government shutdown: The US dollar strengthened by about 2% against a basket of major currencies during the 16-day shutdown. 2018-2019 government shutdown: The US dollar strengthened by about 1% against a basket of major currencies during the 35-day shutdown.
I saw there was a short term funding bill signed by Biden. Here's the data when that expires.
  • #112,285
  • Oct 1, 2023 7:28pm Oct 1, 2023 7:28pm
I may be placing a pending L next h at 0547. ATM stop-loss is tentative 0540. But i will raise it after this next h closes. The trade size is based on s/l. I suspect the close next h will change one of these numbers. I thought pa would reach 0552.6 i got egg on my face. I dont know if 0476 will push it down yet. LC is 0587.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #112,286
  • Oct 1, 2023 8:12pm Oct 1, 2023 8:12pm
Quoting gatorinla
I may be placing a pending L next h at 0547. ATM stop-loss is tentative 0540. But i will raise it after this next h closes. The trade size is based on s/l. I suspect the close next h will change one of these numbers. I thought pa would reach 0552.6 i got egg on my face. I dont know if 0476 will push it down yet. LC is 0587.
I have another option at 0547. But if 0549 is touched it lessons it. In 4h it may change or I may just cancel it. Risking 0.1
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #112,287
  • Oct 1, 2023 8:43pm Oct 1, 2023 8:43pm
0571.9 may resist close. A close above could test 0576 or maybe more. LC at 0587. I thought it would print 0552 at least before any rise. I may be wrong.

0571.9 has its own reason to resist.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #112,288
  • Oct 1, 2023 9:01pm Oct 1, 2023 9:01pm
Japanese officialls are so crazy.. they have been verbally intervening since usdjpy was 147.50 148 now it's 149.72..no effect nothing. and still no intervention yet.. are they waiting to hit 2022 high at 151+ levels
  • #112,289
  • Oct 1, 2023 9:28pm Oct 1, 2023 9:28pm
Quoting gatorinla
0571.9 may resist close. A close above could test 0576 or maybe more. LC at 0587. I thought it would print 0552 at least before any rise. I may be wrong. 0571.9 has its own reason to resist.
guess I could of shorted 0571.9 too, and tp 0552.6 area. Using tight stops for everything today.. I like to take runs with more tp (pips). With this down trend I may have missed one.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #112,290
  • Oct 2, 2023 7:40am Oct 2, 2023 7:40am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} guess I could of shorted 0571.9 too, and tp 0552.6 area. Using tight stops for everything today.. I like to take runs with more tp (pips). With this down trend I may have missed one.
Thanks for the call I did
I'm out
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  • #112,291
  • Oct 2, 2023 11:07am Oct 2, 2023 11:07am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I was wrong about the number being closer to 056x. A new low now is a likely (-0488) b/o. Dynamic number 0488. My guess was wrong. 0488 can support when near and above. PA is very bearish closing last week below 0576 ypp. Breakout is pa below 0488.
PA is close to a b/o, or a bounce now
0487x or 0488x depending on broker.. Whatever a LL is over last month.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #112,292
  • Oct 2, 2023 11:12am Oct 2, 2023 11:12am
Okay I am in longs 1.04926
  • #112,293
  • Oct 2, 2023 12:32pm Oct 2, 2023 12:32pm
0488, or whatever your broker has as last month's low. Is a dynamic month support. The trend is down. But that support may allow some spring. Its bearish as hell. Lets see if it can close back above 0576 sometime. Its so bearish, its not looking good. To be long. The risk to reward long, was good near 0488. That low could be "blood in the street". For a little while.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #112,294
  • Oct 2, 2023 1:02pm Oct 2, 2023 1:02pm
Sprinkling salt and pepper on my s/l. It looks to be eaten. But just maybe. What are my chances?
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #112,295
  • Oct 2, 2023 1:42pm Oct 2, 2023 1:42pm
Quoting gatorinla
0488, or whatever your broker has as last month's low. Is a dynamic month support. The trend is down. But that support may allow some spring. Its bearish as hell. Lets see if it can close back above 0576 sometime. Its so bearish, its not looking good. To be long. The risk to reward long, was good near 0488. That low could be "blood in the street". For a little while. {image}
It may not be too long now.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #112,296
  • Oct 2, 2023 3:13pm Oct 2, 2023 3:13pm
Monthly and day psar broke. Selling bounces looks to be the trend. It may not bounce. I have a pending below 0576. 0565 has some R value. Second choice is 1.0700. Its bearish. So it may never reach these.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #112,297
  • Oct 2, 2023 7:36pm Oct 2, 2023 7:36pm
0495 LC. It's not so far. Not meant to take a long. It may allow a short later. Today only. 15m trend R at 0498
Breaking a month psar dont happens too often. PA is below the year close, and the ypp.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #112,298
  • Oct 2, 2023 10:06pm Oct 2, 2023 10:06pm
AUD Rate decision in 23 min.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #112,299
  • Oct 2, 2023 10:11pm Oct 2, 2023 10:11pm
Quoting gatorinla
AUD Rate decision in 23 min.
that will not have any affect on eurusd
  • #112,300
  • Oct 2, 2023 10:28pm Oct 2, 2023 10:28pm
Quoting shakmoney
{quote} that will not have any affect on eurusd
There is nothing absolute in trading. It can trigger a move. Or at least I have watched it do it before. I have watched it do nothing too. We do trade more than the eu here.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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