Daily GBP/JPY analysis

It does not seem to be a sell as of now. lets see how the day pans out...

Pls allow me to update:

GBPJPY 241.92 (+78)
USDJPY 121.29 (+51)

so far sooo good!

Looks like a Japanese bank is selling USDJPY aggressively. 121.10 is first level of support and then 120.80.

not good to gj!!:/

do you buy and sell in the same time??

Good hedge until now. Might try this idea too, even if in my opinion GY and UY should be both go up....

short 241,53 tp 241,03

this is what i did too, got a sell stop at 241.50, but dont believe in it anymore... damn, false downmoves on both GY and EY.

what do u guys believe of todays fall? For me its a sign of weakness though, which may continue to 240ish... The lack of sustainability above 242.10 makes me wonder if there is a retracement happening...

Et tu, Brutus?

wish that 261 fib on the 15min would break downwards

European equities are tanking just now and seems to be following. If u can, use equities as a guide...at least between major news. Often works

For what its worth here is my view - based on fibs we have gone through the 127.2 level of the last major upswing and have touched (almost) the 161.8 at 241.08. Now, if we recover from here thats fine, the problem is if we continue south I see nothing stopping us until the 78.6 fib of the uprun from 30th May at 240.42

Thoughts anyone ??

Me too, sorry for stabbing u, Cesar. Now Im in the green on the sell.

Could 241 hold this down move??

any thoughts?

Intriguing moves so far... seems fueled by UJ selling though... Only reason that comes to my mind is this G8 meeting. Although economy is not the main theme in the agenda, it's always a good window to push on "Yen & Yuan" issues.....

Cesar,
As you are right so many times and i appreciate your objective and solid opinion, a solid cross is about to be sustained cross of GJ 200 EMA 1Hr. That is on average 50-100+. Granted i am a fundemental guy vice a tech. ALso 8/24 cross earlier, but waiting for a more solid signal before i jump. I hate walking on egg shells and would rather be safe than sorry. So i am waiting to see if it can hold below 241.37 which is my entry point after this small retracement.

Big D

so will the GJ EJ move up after this rate news if its good? are any people still holing there longs or have most people gone to shorts

im into shorts for the moment...mainly due to daily outlook.

Today, 6:52am
http://forexfactory.com/image.php?u=...ine=1180304811Tim Clayton http://forexfactory.com/images/statu...er_offline.gif vbmenu_register("postmenu_1459536", true);
Forex Factory Analyst Team
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http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif Correction in Carry Trades
There has been a correction in carry trades over the past 24 hours with Euro/yen for example weakening to 163.70 from highs above 164.50 on Tuesday.

Global bond yields have been rising again on signs of robust growth and inflation fears. US 2-year bond yields have risen to 5.0%, the highest level since August 2006 while Japanese yields have increased to above the 1.0% level for the first time in 10 years.

The yield gaps will remain attractive and there will, therefore, be a further temptation to sell low-yield currencies.

The rise in bond yields will, however, make stocks look expensive relative to bonds which will increase the risk of a downward correction in global stock markets, especially with fears that interest rates will have to rise further than expected. The German DAX index, for example, has fallen by over 1.5% on Wednesday.

The Japanese yen trend and direction of carry trades has been strongly influenced by global stock market trends over the past few weeks. If there is a more substantial retreat in global stocks, then there is also likely to be a further correction in carry trades.

Wall Street will need to be watched closely on Wednesday and a retreat of more than 1.5% would be likely to trigger a further significant correction in carry trades.
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Tim Clayton
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Forex Factory Analyst

Thats where I have the 4h up trend line, so it's possible.