FXCM Dailyfx commentary as contrarian Indicator?? | Forex Factory

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FXCM Dailyfx commentary as contrarian Indicator??

  • #1
  • First Post: Jun 6, 2007 12:57am Jun 6, 2007 12:57am
Has anyone noticed of the dailyfx headlines. Are they serving up as contrary indicators?

1. When the USD/CAD was trading in the 1.09 range they said that 80% of traders are long on this pair. And look where the pair is now

2. When GBP/JPY was in the 239 range the article said "GBP/JPY major top in place" and look it is past the top

3. Last week their article said USD/JPY may turn lower this week and it surged to 122

You donot have to look elsewhere than the brokers for contrary opinions.
  • #2
  • Jun 6, 2007 1:12am Jun 6, 2007 1:12am
Quoting av_fx
Has anyone noticed of the dailyfx headlines. Are they serving up as contrary indicators?

1. When the USD/CAD was trading in the 1.09 range they said that 80% of traders are long on this pair. And look where the pair is now

2. When GBP/JPY was in the 239 range the article said "GBP/JPY major top in place" and look it is past the top

3. Last week their article said USD/JPY may turn lower this week and it surged to 122

You donot have to look elsewhere than the brokers for contrary opinions.
Hi AV..

The rest of that article on the Usd/cad stated that the ssi indicator is A Contraian indicator and that it signaled FURTHER WEAKNESS in the usd/cad....which was correct.

usd/jpy...states "MAY" turn lower.....I wouldn't exactly say 122.12 was a surge...and as of this writing.....121.35 just printed...

Gotta read more than just the HEADLINES
Proper Prior Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance
  • #3
  • Jun 6, 2007 1:15am Jun 6, 2007 1:15am
Quoting av_fx
Has anyone noticed of the dailyfx headlines. Are they serving up as contrary indicators?

1. When the USD/CAD was trading in the 1.09 range they said that 80% of traders are long on this pair. And look where the pair is now

2. When GBP/JPY was in the 239 range the article said "GBP/JPY major top in place" and look it is past the top

3. Last week their article said USD/JPY may turn lower this week and it surged to 122

You donot have to look elsewhere than the brokers for contrary opinions.
Sometimes they are like a horoscope .. can be read both ways..
  • #4
  • Jun 6, 2007 1:16am Jun 6, 2007 1:16am
Quoting dimmi
Sometimes they are like a horoscope .. can be read both ways..
agreed...
  • #5
  • Jun 7, 2007 8:46pm Jun 7, 2007 8:46pm
Sorry but I think I must agree with the person who started this thread... and I specifically mean FXCM... !!! Over time I came to believe that they intentionally try to steer people to losing trades. FXCM seems actually to go out of their way to do this. It did not take long to realise this... and stop reading their stuff...

And by the way, amazing how as soon as I got out of FXCM as my broker, my trading magically improved !!!!

FXCM are the biggest scammers out there !!!
  • #6
  • Jun 8, 2007 4:59pm Jun 8, 2007 4:59pm
A day ago when the Euro was at 1.3510 level FXCM had announced that most traders are long on this pair and it has a chance to go to 1.3680
and look where it is right now - 1.3360
  • #7
  • Jun 8, 2007 4:59pm Jun 8, 2007 4:59pm
By the way Tiki Trader who is your broker now?
  • #8
  • Jun 8, 2007 5:46pm Jun 8, 2007 5:46pm
Aye generally I avoid what brokers say, although I have to admit GFT's advice lately has been spot on with my own observations. Which kind of baffles me, maybe I'm losing it.
  • #9
  • Jun 9, 2007 7:53am Jun 9, 2007 7:53am
I had GFT as a broker before. They werent bad, but normally their "insight" consisted of an opinion of "mixed". LOL

As far as FXCM, they are trying to get your money, so why in the world would they give out good advice?

(I know GFT is doing same thing, but they aren't blatant about it.)

I think using FXCM as a contrarian indicator is a great idea.

Now how can I put that in a MetaTrader4 chart?

  • #10
  • Jun 9, 2007 10:41am Jun 9, 2007 10:41am
While reading down the new posts/threads, i read this one's tittle and had a good belly laugh. There is much truth to the idea, and FXCM is not the only "contraian indicator" out there!

: ) Thom
  • #11
  • Jun 9, 2007 10:52am Jun 9, 2007 10:52am
I have nticed that all brokers and advisors are extreamly fluent in DOUBLESPEAK.
Same Whore .... Different Dress
  • #12
  • Jun 9, 2007 11:56am Jun 9, 2007 11:56am
You shouldn't be reading advisors to find out what to do, you should read them in order to provide arguments and counter arguments to your own thoughts in order to test them before you put them into real money. Re. FXCM in particular, I read Kathy Lein's articles as often as I can, as she tends to be articulate, well-thought, and well researched. I have no idea what her batting average is. But I do know that if she is making a specific point I'll pay attention to it - and particularly the arguments behind it - to see how they challenge my own, and whether they can bring them into sharper focus.
  • #13
  • Jun 9, 2007 12:01pm Jun 9, 2007 12:01pm
My trading goes a lot better when I ignore news, events, commentaries, World War threats, whether Paris Hilton is doing something crazy and just concentrate on where the price is going.
You might find that ludicrous, but in my defence, I am making serious $$$ with a little system that ignores everything...It's still in the testing phase and isn't the only system I use, but...it works great and ignores everything.
  • #14
  • Jun 9, 2007 12:27pm Jun 9, 2007 12:27pm
Quoting av_fx
Has anyone noticed of the dailyfx headlines. Are they serving up as contrary indicators?

1. When the USD/CAD was trading in the 1.09 range they said that 80% of traders are long on this pair. And look where the pair is now

2. When GBP/JPY was in the 239 range the article said "GBP/JPY major top in place" and look it is past the top

3. Last week their article said USD/JPY may turn lower this week and it surged to 122

You donot have to look elsewhere than the brokers for contrary opinions.
I was thinking along these same lines when I spotted this thread.

You might also chart a couple of the trading systems that FXCM touts. There are several.

Anytime the systems agree with their commentary- double up and go the other way.
  • #15
  • Jun 9, 2007 2:43pm Jun 9, 2007 2:43pm
The way I treat brokers and broker related sites/books/systems is the way I treat the casinos when I go to Vegas.

They do not want you to win!!!!!!
Why do you think the casinos will let you play blackjack with a strategy card? Are they trying to help you? NO! They want you to feel as if you have an edge, but you don't!

Same in forex...look at the books that FXCM authors have written and try to trade those strategies. See how well you do.

My advice is to not look at any advice relating to forecasts...just try to follow what the market is doing and not what you or anyone else says it is supposed to do.
  • #16
  • Jun 9, 2007 2:45pm Jun 9, 2007 2:45pm
Quoting dunningduke
My trading goes a lot better when I ignore news, events, commentaries, World War threats, whether Paris Hilton is doing something crazy and just concentrate on where the price is going.
You might find that ludicrous, but in my defence, I am making serious $$$ with a little system that ignores everything...It's still in the testing phase and isn't the only system I use, but...it works great and ignores everything.
My friend...you nailed it!!!!
  • #17
  • Jun 9, 2007 3:29pm Jun 9, 2007 3:29pm
Yeah REALLY nailed it !!!!!!!!!!

I have long since learned not to pay attention to commentaries from brokers or to news in general... price is going where its going...
  • #18
  • Jun 10, 2007 1:14am Jun 10, 2007 1:14am
[quote]
[i]
Quoting HalifaxCB; You shouldn't be reading advisors to find out what to do, you should read them in order to provide arguments and counter arguments to your own thoughts in order to test them before you put them into real money. Re. FXCM in particular, I read Kathy Lein's articles as often as I can, as she tends to be articulate, well-thought, and well researched. I have no idea what her batting average is. But I do know that if she is making a specific point I'll pay attention to it - and particularly the arguments behind it - to see how they challenge my own, and whether they can bring them into sharper focus.[/I

Excellent point and very well written. Should be a sticky.
My own broker offers a daily strategy and I used to follow it blindly. For months I lost money and wasted time that I should have been using to do my own study. Now I use the charts and theories they post to help make my own decisions--often they'll show me something I've missed.

Kathy Lien's articles are certainly not made up from thin air. A lot can be extracted from them. If nothing else any good advisor's strategies or headlines usually revolve around technical crossroads, areas where something is apt to stir, so-called critical price levels that beg study. If you don't look at advisors in that light then it's better not to read them at all.

I have to confess to a mindless, semi-contrarian strategy of my own. For example, say the EUR/USD is at 1.3340 and my broker suggests placing a limit order to go long at 1.3290. I've found, after a few years of watching and trading their strategies, that these orders fill more often than not, (whether they want you to win or lose you can't do either unless the order fills so they will at least try to steer you to the entry price) even if only for questionable results. So rather than placing a limit to go long, I go short at the current price of 1.3340 and set my TP just a squeak above 1.3290 and if it prints, get out of the trade. Certainly not foolproof or scientific but it does produce for me. A little short term gem that usually will make or break within 24 hours.
On the other hand, if I happen to like their trade idea, scalping a few points on the way to the entry takes a little of the risk off.
  • #19
  • Jun 10, 2007 7:39am Jun 10, 2007 7:39am
Quoting dunningduke
My trading goes a lot better when I ignore news, events, commentaries, World War threats, whether Paris Hilton is doing something crazy and just concentrate on where the price is going.
You might find that ludicrous, but in my defence, I am making serious $$$ with a little system that ignores everything...It's still in the testing phase and isn't the only system I use, but...it works great and ignores everything.
I will agree that using price as an indicator should always be a major part of determining strategy, but ignoring events completely can lead you to miss some great oppurtunities.

I use current price and compare that to current data. For example, we all know how depreciated the dollar had become relative to the GBP and EUR. Much of that weakness was based on where interest rates looked to be going.

That all changed this week as data and events all but removed the chance of a Fed rate cut from the table. I posted my "Euro Vunerable Cable Too" thread in the N&A section Wednesday afternoon around 4:30.

I still think the dollar has plenty of potential for this week and beyond if the data points this way.

The dollar can get into the 3100's vs EUR and into the 9300's vs Cable. The first test will be UK PPI input prices.
  • #20
  • Jun 10, 2007 9:17am Jun 10, 2007 9:17am
[quote=av_fx;1459339]Has anyone noticed of the dailyfx headlines. Are they serving up as contrary indicators?

1. When the USD/CAD was trading in the 1.09 range they said that 80% of traders are long on this pair. And look where the pair is now

QUOTE]


That 80% was obviously part of the 90% that lose at forex. Majority does not rule in forex. Saying the majority is this way or that way is not giving a prediction. It could be telling you where the 'dumb money' is however.

Lou
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