Us/jy Where Next? | Forex Factory

Options

Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Buy on next Upward candle/Sell on next downward candle EA 2 replies

Tomorrow Next (Tom next) 5 replies

What's next for the ECB rates? 0 replies

when's the next US fed interest statement? 2 replies

Taking the Next step after you Have a trading plan 5 replies

Us/jy Where Next?

  • #1
  • First Post: Jun 5, 2007 3:41pm Jun 5, 2007 3:41pm
I,m Still Short On The Pair ,this Is My 4th Week Waiting The Pair Retrace Since I Am Negative. Any Comments?
  • #2
  • Jun 5, 2007 4:00pm Jun 5, 2007 4:00pm
Quoting flakk2000
I,m Still Short On The Pair ,this Is My 4th Week Waiting The Pair Retrace Since I Am Negative. Any Comments?
Follow the trend. What do you see in your charts? An uptrend? So go long.
Don't act according to possible retracements or movements that doesn't exist in your chart. It's much more reasonable to do what the charts are telling you, not what you think it may happen.
You may be waiting for the retracement for days or months, you never know. But what you do know is where the pair is going NOW.
And also, don't get married with a negative position waiting to become positive. I would have been much better if you have closed it when you saw it wasn't looking good and reversed the position. You would be positive now.

  • #3
  • Jun 5, 2007 4:05pm Jun 5, 2007 4:05pm
Quoting pabloski
Follow the trend. What do you see in your charts? An uptrend? So go long.
Don't act according to possible retracements or movements that doesn't exist in your chart. It's much more reasonable to do what the charts are telling you, not what you think it may happen.
You may be waiting for the retracement for days or months, you never know. But what you do know is where the pair is going NOW.
THANK YOU FOR THE COMMENT.. DON,T U THINK THE PAIR IS OVER BOUGHT AND IT,S TOO HOT TO GO LONG ON IT?
  • #4
  • Jun 5, 2007 4:19pm Jun 5, 2007 4:19pm
Quoting flakk2000
THANK YOU FOR THE COMMENT.. DON,T U THINK THE PAIR IS OVER BOUGHT AND IT,S TOO HOT TO GO LONG ON IT?
Sorry I commented about trading and not about the pair.

I'm long GJ, EJ and UJ. I don't see important signs of retracement. In fact, I'm buying on dips.

It's an error to think that a pair has moved too much and that it must change its direction in the near term. Look what happened with USDCAD. Lot of traders went long at critical levels and it kept going south.

Again, follow the trend.
  • #5
  • Jun 5, 2007 4:26pm Jun 5, 2007 4:26pm
Quoting pabloski
Sorry I commented about trading and not about the pair.

I'm long GJ, EJ and UJ. I don't see important signs of retracement. In fact, I'm buying on dips.

It's an error to think that a pair has moved too much and that it must change its direction in the near term. Look what happened with USDCAD. Lot of traders went long at critical levels and it kept going south.

Again, follow the trend.
THANKS AGAIN I WILL DO THAT.
  • #6
  • Jun 5, 2007 4:29pm Jun 5, 2007 4:29pm
Quoting flakk2000
THANK YOU FOR THE COMMENT.. DON,T U THINK THE PAIR IS OVER BOUGHT AND IT,S TOO HOT TO GO LONG ON IT?
no upper case please

The pair might be overbought but you need to realise that the pair is going up up up because of the carry trades.

It is indeed overbought and yen is underevaluated for at least 20% when you look at the fundamental.

But untill BOJ rate reaches 1.5% you will not see any major retracement.

The only temporary retracement you could see is if the chinese stock market goes BOOM...

For the time being, going short on Yen should be only for temporary retracement (like today) but not long term as you are paying swap just for hope...
  • #7
  • Edited 6:02pm Jun 5, 2007 5:08pm | Edited 6:02pm
Quoting flakk2000
I,m Still Short On The Pair ,this Is My 4th Week Waiting The Pair Retrace Since I Am Negative. Any Comments?
I think you're likely have to take a loss on this one no matter what. That being said if you're looking for an exit, I see the daily coming down and generally when it does it moves about 200 pips down, already has moved 100. But it's likely to run into the up trendline at 120.60-80 range. Which could be your best possible exit, although don't bank on it, if it shows signs of turning back up which they normally do, that's your exit. Although if your trading style is for months or years, you do have a decent chance of recovering your money. But I have to say the swap fee over that time frame is going to severely diminish any returns you see.

On a side note, over bought and sold don't work very well for trends and are even less effective on carry trade currencies. They are mostly useful for ranging markets. Also stop losses (or smaller ones if you do have one) can help save you from this types of trades.
  • #8
  • Jun 5, 2007 5:18pm Jun 5, 2007 5:18pm
Where will this pair next?
Man, this question is actually so hard to answer, but if you're asking like that, it's easier than nothing else, cause an upmove, like a downmove can occur. THis is just because you don't refer to a certain timeframe. Get this first cleared to put any other questions on this forum. Only if we know what timeframe you're referring, we can give you our perspectives, as trends, retracements overbought/sold...
I wanted to mention this, because i don't want you to learn things wrong, or better said, i don't wan't you to misinterpret anything. By, the way, as long 120.60 can hold, we could see a continuation of the daily uptrend, by reaching the recent highs. A sustained break sparks more selling.
I'm getting there ... slowly
  • #9
  • Jun 5, 2007 8:11pm Jun 5, 2007 8:11pm
http://img370.imageshack.us/img370/2538/scal8.png

Double bottom on the JPY index, meaning bearish for USD/JPY pair. I've been long since 500 pips ago back in march but I do feel the tide is turning. Nothing definate yet but if I was your financial advisor I would tell you to hold.
  • #10
  • Jun 5, 2007 9:04pm Jun 5, 2007 9:04pm
Quoting mister_doodi
http://img370.imageshack.us/img370/2538/scal8.png

Double bottom on the JPY index, meaning bearish for USD/JPY pair. I've been long since 500 pips ago back in march but I do feel the tide is turning. Nothing definate yet but if I was your financial advisor I would tell you to hold.
i will hold some more since i'ved been waiting for 4 weeks. thanks for the reply...
  • #11
  • Last Post: Jun 5, 2007 11:19pm Jun 5, 2007 11:19pm
It's been looking like its' been trying to make a top for a couple of weeks now.
Maybe this is it ?
But if it breaks back up and over 122.20 on a close for a couple of days ,could be trouble.
0 traders viewing now