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Going for it

  • #401
  • Sep 22, 2023 1:12am Sep 22, 2023 1:12am
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  • #402
  • Sep 22, 2023 1:13am Sep 22, 2023 1:13am
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} Hi Yaed, GBP/USD has more movement than EUR/USD certainly, for me, makes it easier to Trade..... {image}
Yes, the euro/dollar has lost A LOT of move
In 2011 300 pip moves a day was not unusual, and now 80 is a lot...
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  • #403
  • Sep 22, 2023 2:27am Sep 22, 2023 2:27am
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  • #404
  • Sep 22, 2023 2:40am Sep 22, 2023 2:40am
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  • #405
  • Sep 22, 2023 3:27am Sep 22, 2023 3:27am
Making sense?
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Or are you still looking for "the edge", "the system", "the secret" or any of that obviously unproven hogwash?
I mean why would 1.000.000 people be looking for "the system", asuming there is one other then the obvious?
Why would they start out thinking such a thing even exists?
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  • #406
  • Sep 22, 2023 11:20pm Sep 22, 2023 11:20pm
Quoting yaed
Making sense? {image} Or are you still looking for "the edge", "the system", "the secret" or any of that obviously unproven hogwash? I mean why would 1.000.000 people be looking for "the system", asuming there is one other then the obvious? Why would they start out thinking such a thing even exists?
So just like in the examples we where looking at last week, the kind of patterns, the kind of PA we are looking for is when price breaks into a new lower or higher level and it does not go back or has a lot of trouble to go back into its previous zone/level/area.
Just like neuro linguistic programming might teach you, dont get stuck on the words. Like Robert Anton Wilson says: We need to be cynical about our words. Its not that words are "wrong", the trap, the problem is that you might be trying to use some set of words and argue with yourself or other people which set of words to use.

Im not sure im making my point clearly here.
I mean that it is of no REAL significance how we think of or describe how we trade. Is it called scalping, swing trading, supply and demand or what ever? It does not make any difference TO PRICE what you call it.

Im not even saying im 100% clear of this problem/trap. My mind is fractured, i have biologically inherited post traumatic stress syndrome, just like the rest of you. This world may seem like a multitude of catastrophic events occuring as we speak, among other things.

I have read such utterly, profoundly confused statements that everyone trades differently and that its subjective "if it works" or not. We dont have personal prices, we trade pretty much the same price with some miniscule variations from broker to broker. Which means that if i buy/sell at a certain price and close at another price, someone else can do the exact same thing and get the same results as i do.
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  • #407
  • Edited 12:12pm Sep 24, 2023 11:45am | Edited 12:12pm
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So dont be a looser.
Dont fall for the greed and stupid OVERSOLD/OVERBOUGHT nonsense.
Price will show you.
No need to guess at peaks and valleys.

Could you benefit from a 5 pip SL?
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The answer
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Everything is right there.
You just got to do the numbers.
And pull the fucking trigger, win or loss.

Someone daytrading E/U effectively this year will have roughly this type of statement...
65% wins between +1 and +4 pip
5 % losses between -1 and -4 pip
10% losses between -5 and -9 pip
10% wins between +5 and +9 pip
8% wins between +10 and +20 pip
2% wins between +21 and +35 pip
Ventures/strategies/people aiming to daytrade at other closed positions will not be effective

Ouf of humans trading it, roughly 1% can have that type of statement.
Roughly 80% of active accounts will balance lower on a 365 day cycle.
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  • #408
  • Oct 1, 2023 8:59am Oct 1, 2023 8:59am
Quoting yaed
{image} {image} {image} So dont be a looser. Dont fall for the greed and stupid OVERSOLD/OVERBOUGHT nonsense. Price will show you. No need to guess at peaks and valleys. Could you benefit from a 5 pip SL? {image} The answer {image} Everything is right there. You just got to do the numbers. And pull the fucking trigger, win or loss. Someone daytrading E/U effectively this year will have roughly this type of statement... 65% wins between +1 and +4 pip 5 % losses between -1 and -4 pip 10% losses between -5 and -9 pip 10% wins between +5 and +9 pip...
Hi Yaed,

EUR/USD M15 M1 Observations for September 22nd
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  • #409
  • Oct 17, 2023 1:47am Oct 17, 2023 1:47am
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} Hi Yaed, EUR/USD M15 M1 Observations for September 22nd {image} {image}
Lows and highs is all we got.
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  • #410
  • Oct 17, 2023 2:23am Oct 17, 2023 2:23am
I have tried to dabble.
I have pulled my hair.
I have kind of thought i knew what i was doing.

Yet i always come back to M1.
And when its working im looking at M1.
6 months ago i had a false epiphany.
Yes there are those and i have them.
It was a H1 epiphany.
And i have struggled with it since then.
Now im ready to lay it to rest.
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  • #411
  • Oct 17, 2023 2:27am Oct 17, 2023 2:27am
Quoting stevepatt
{quote} Hi Yaed, EUR/USD M15 M1 Observations for September 22nd {image} {image}
To confirm or deny or modify those zones you still look at M1, correct?
Meaning the zones you marked are kind of places that you dont want to forget about once we get there again, correct?
And so would it not be apt, in fact quite accurate to say that the price action of M1 is of most importance, correct?
Would it not be quite accurate to say that market bias can change on a minute to minute basis especially at when we get some news, correct?

Im not trying to persuade you or dissuade you.
The questions is ment for me to understand your thinking and for you to understand mine.
And also they are ment to strengthen what is in your mind as well as in mine.
And perhaps for someone else to understand us both.
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  • #412
  • Edited 2:47am Oct 17, 2023 2:36am | Edited 2:47am
Quoting yaed
{quote} To confirm or deny or modify those zones you still look at M1, correct? Meaning the zones you marked are kind of places that you dont want to forget about once we get there again, correct? And so would it not be apt, in fact quite accurate to say that the price action of M1 is of most importance, correct? Would it not be quite accurate to say that market bias can change on a minute to minute basis especially at when we get some news, correct? Im not trying to persuade you or dissuade you. The questions is ment for me to understand your thinking...
Case and point...
These type of levels are quite old.
They can be seen on many of my old charts.
Its simply where price have seem to react in the past.
Often i forget why i placed them, and thats OK, they often give me a heads up anyway.
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  • #413
  • Oct 17, 2023 2:45am Oct 17, 2023 2:45am
No politics
I see no bears and tigers or what ever they are called.
There are no teams.
There is nothing to route for.
It would not matter if its oil, gold, yen, dollars or euros.
Its just numbers.
And its OK.
Lows and highs.
Lower highs and higher lows.
Thats it.
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  • #414
  • Oct 18, 2023 7:30am Oct 18, 2023 7:30am
A non linear thing
Is there something more then just the candles and price itself?
Yes.

Why?
Because price is nominated in a symbolicaly linear fashion. Yet psychology of humans is not to be taken in a linear fashion.
You need to read price in non linear fashion. When to buy and when to sell and when to close and at what price cannot be understood fixed linear fashion.
Every point in time is unique, yet everything reminds of what was before.

What does that mean?
That means 10 pip at night is not the same as 10 pip during NFP news.
That means 10 pip in 2011 is not the same thing as 10 pip in 2023.
That means that 10 pip on Yen/usd is not the same thing as 10 pip on euro/usd.
And yes it even means that 10 pip during lunch break in city of london on a monday is not the same as 10 pip during 15:23 on a wednesday.
If you dont know this and use it, i dont think its likely you are going to get any consistent green pips.
So if you cant apply the same linear formulas to something that is to be understood psychologicaly in a non linear fashion.
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  • #415
  • Edited 5:04am Oct 23, 2023 3:37am | Edited 5:04am
Trend and anti trend and what you need to do to be an effective trader.
To sell highs and buy lows is to anticipate a range which is the lack of a trend.
To sell when price is low expecting it to fall further and to buy when price is high expecting it to go higher is to anticipate a trend.
I think that in order to be an effective trader you need to be able to distinguish between these and learn how to trade both.
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  • #416
  • Edited 1:32am Oct 30, 2023 12:43am | Edited 1:32am
A basic reading of PA
Many years ago i deviced a way of reading price action.
It might have been 2018 or something like that and its in one of those threads.
And i still read it the same way.
But it might be time to present it once more.

So what do i mean?
Well its a most basic way of telling if price is going up or down at the moment.
It is ment to be able to be used on all time frames.
But since i mostly care about M1, thats where my focus is.

In natural language it looks like this:
If the current candles high is higher then the previous candles high then price is going up.
It the current candles low is lower then the previous candles low then price is going down.
So if this is applied to M1, what we are doing in practice is looking at the highs and lows of the tick scale, although we simplify it and make it into M1 candles.
And this might seem obvious to you.
But im cutting away something important.
I DONT CARE ABOUT THE END OF THE CURRENT CANDLE.
So this is not ment to be used on closed candles, its ment to be used on the current candles as they are.
Maybe i attribute some little significance to the closing of candles, but i found it it has very little significance, and it works to think like that.

Like all my charts i keep em fresh, preferably live.
So here is what this means in a chart.
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Candle number 1 is still up.
At candle number 2 it starts going down.
And even at candle number 3 its still down, since its high is not higher then the one before.
But at candle 4, being the current candle, the high goes higher then the previous one so its up.

Simple, yes?
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  • #417
  • Oct 30, 2023 12:56am Oct 30, 2023 12:56am
Quoting yaed
A basic reading of PA Many years ago i deviced a way of reading price action. It might have been 2018 or something like that and its in one of those threads. And i still read it the same way. But it might be time to present it once more. So what do i mean? Well its a most basic way of telling if price if going up or down at the moment. It is ment to be able to be used on all time frames. But since i mostly care about M1, thats where my focus is. In natural language it looks like this: If the current candles high is higher then the previous candles...
Lets delve a little deeper...
So, thats not everything of course.
And sometimes when i get to hung up on that interpretation, things go bad, real bad.
So lets go on with the same chart, only now there is some more candles...
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I sold at candle 1.
At candle 2, i still kept it, which as it turns out, was not that smart...
At candle 3 things starts to go bad, at price goes up again but i keep my sell.
However candle 3 goes just a few pipettes up and it stops.
At candle 4 we get maybe a pipette or two higher then candle 3, and still i keep my sell.
As we see candle 5, we get into trouble. I close my sell right after.

Thats the general PA read.
Now lets have a look at the SR type of thinking that might tell you something about why i entered a sell in the first place and maybe something more about why i closed it.
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  • #418
  • Oct 30, 2023 1:11am Oct 30, 2023 1:11am
The SR and the HH, HL, LH and LL
So remember, the words we use is not in themselves important, its how we act that makes the difference.
So you got to keep all this in mind and train it enough to make it sublime.
There is no REAL difference between SR, PA, and the highs and lows.
Its all one and the same thing.
We use these concepts only for the mind.
They have no meaning in and of themselves.
You can substitute every word for other words if it makes more sense for you.

So with that said...
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I sold at high number 2, since we bumped twice up there.
And besides E/U has been in a REALLY old trend of selling.
Just look at H4...
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Thats almost 3 months of rather favouring selling.
So i sold at the second high.
However, as we saw place i termed the "Old low" came into play and price got a little snagged there.
So i closed it there.
However, as we can see now, had i held unto it i would have been better off.
But im not saying im perfect, im pretty cool with being profitable most days, and being a little wrong.
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  • #419
  • Oct 30, 2023 1:24am Oct 30, 2023 1:24am
Lets bring in some probability and risk management into it...
So lets think about probility and risk.
Which tend to be important when relating a probable take profit to its unavoidable stop loss.
Far too many times i have opened a trade seeing only how i can make money if it continues.
And far too many times i have found out that if i did a simple probability or risk calculation, i would not have entered the trade.
If i keep all these things i mentioned in mind and i am cool and calculated and carefull i can be profitable for months...

I digress...
Probability for TP and SL...
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If i sell at 1.05516 which might seem like a good obvious choice, i need first consider that my general take profit is not much more then 3.2 pips, since price already bounced there twice.
If it bounces there again would not be so strange.
And it would not be so strange if it bounced at around 1.0547 again and started going up real powerfull from there for a bit.
So if i DID sell at around 1.05516 my SL needs to be REAL tight and a TP of more then 3.2 would be rather speculative...
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  • #420
  • Oct 30, 2023 1:28am Oct 30, 2023 1:28am
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So it DID break a little higher, but the buying was not dramatic.
One thing that i havent touched on today is that today is a monday.
So i dont expect much drama.
Although last monday the 23rd there was PLENTY of action a truly a good day for trading.
I dont speculate the funny mentals of why there was a lot of drama last monday, i just look at the numbers and do my thing.
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