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Strat's PASR Long Term, Stress Free Trading

  • #17,261
  • Sep 19, 2023 11:49am Sep 19, 2023 11:49am
Quoting Strat
{quote} Thank you kindly, heispark, for visiting this thread and offering your advice. You have now taken me back 141/2 YEARS to when I first started these threads on FF where I would get my double barrel shotgun out and blow these type of posts out of the water!. However, after reaching the ripe and wise ""old"" age of 75, I am a little more discreet. First, it is VERY UNPROFESSIONAL and BAD TRADING ETIQUETTE to troll a thread and post links on it to other threads! Next, as with all self appointed and proclaimed gurus and experts who are all WIND...
I might've just said "Yo momma's ugly." But your approach also works
  • #17,262
  • Sep 19, 2023 1:05pm Sep 19, 2023 1:05pm
M3 S&P 500 ES 12-23

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Waited for retrace of down move to kick in using PASR and VOLUME

Joined in Profit Taking at resistance confluence of 200, 50% retrace and previous Low although as I post this, VOLUME is still supporting PRICE higher but I'm done again.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #17,263
  • Sep 19, 2023 8:44pm Sep 19, 2023 8:44pm
Quoting bistolis
{quote} Looks good. Make a plan on how to make money out of all that {image} I am shorting PA like that on the M1 chart (or any chart actually). Start identifying simple entries and making trades and build your arsenal of entries, things you would want to see in real time to place a trade. Worst case you will be wrong half the time (like everyone else). Get experience on how to identify when you are wrong so that you lose as less as possible. And keep your winners running until there is a reason to close the trade. While the market agrees with you...
Hey Bistolis

Thank you for your message. Still thinking on the "things I would want to see part on that chart." As I've recently read. Sitting and analysing charts is one thing. Trading is a completely different business.

Currently I'm looking at the AUDCHF and have the following observations with a potential plan forming.

Monthly she's looking quite downward after breaking the previous low from 2020 around 0.5890ish

Weekly I'd say the same and the last leg of the weekly down move is retracing. I'm paying attention to the 50% fib retracement which just so happens to sit at that monthly support line that was broken

So now I'm watching the daily and I'm thinking that if it does come back to the zone with the 50% & the monthly resistance point I'll need to be paying attention to the PA around it.

If I go short when that happens and it manages to continue down the first place I'll be expecting a fight will be at the 0.5700 which is a place of support on the weekly

(A more refined support from the same monthly support line. Is this a thing? The monthly low is around the 0.5900 but then on the weekly there's a low at 0.5700. I'm only paying attention to the close for my support and resistance.)

So the plan:

Entry around price action on the 50% / 0.5900 zone.

Stop loss would be above the 23% retracement which also coincides with the 0.6000 (big psycho?)

Profit target would be in the real. Of 0.5700

Now we sit and see! (On our hands...With handcuffs...And the only key to the handcuffs is PASR)
  • #17,264
  • Sep 20, 2023 2:20am Sep 20, 2023 2:20am
Quoting JacobTrades
{quote} Hey Bistolis Thank you for your message. Still thinking on the "things I would want to see part on that chart." As I've recently read. Sitting and analysing charts is one thing. Trading is a completely different business. Currently I'm looking at the AUDCHF and have the following observations with a potential plan forming. Monthly she's looking quite downward after breaking the previous low from 2020 around 0.5890ish Weekly I'd say the same and the last leg of the weekly down move is retracing. I'm paying attention to the 50% fib retracement...
Hello Jacob,

we do not trade AUDCHF. It is a pair manipulated by the SNB and does not have reliable PA. You might look at it for training purposes, but we avoid trading it. Maybe you have not yet read it along the path.

Only key to the handcuffs is PASR is a powerful analogy to avoid bad trades!
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #17,265
  • Sep 20, 2023 2:53am Sep 20, 2023 2:53am
Quoting JacobTrades
{quote} Hey Bistolis Thank you for your message. Still thinking on the "things I would want to see part on that chart." As I've recently read. Sitting and analysing charts is one thing. Trading is a completely different business. Currently I'm looking at the AUDCHF and have the following observations with a potential plan forming. Monthly she's looking quite downward after breaking the previous low from 2020 around 0.5890ish Weekly I'd say the same and the last leg of the weekly down move is retracing. I'm paying attention to the 50% fib retracement...
monthly
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weekly
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daily
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I would wait for PA to show the way with some nice candle, but dont disregard the obvious trend on the daily over the past few weeks.
On the other hand why do you even bother with something that has 40pips average daily range?
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  • #17,266
  • Edited 7:01am Sep 20, 2023 6:49am | Edited 7:01am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} Hello Jacob, we do not trade AUDCHF. It is a pair manipulated by the SNB and does not have reliable PA. You might look at it for training purposes, but we avoid trading it. Maybe you have not yet read it along the path. Only key to the handcuffs is PASR is a powerful analogy to avoid bad trades!
Quoting bistolis
{quote} monthly {image} weekly {image} daily{image} I would wait for PA to show the way with some nice candle, but dont disregard the obvious trend on the daily over the past few weeks. On the other hand why do you even bother with something that has 40pips average daily range? {image}
Hey folks. Thank you both for your input. All good things to know.

Hickson I'm not up to that part no but thank you for the heads up. Ill keep plugging away at the path.
Really trying to work on that 'knowing when to stay out' and not trading because you want to trade.

Bistolis, Thank you for your views. I appreciate the feedback alot. Really good point. I'll have to start also considering daily range. Of course. The bigger the average movement the nicer the moves. They said trading is simple isn't it? Also just to double check those are the 20ema 50sma 100ema 250sma? For the current and the BOSS MAs?
  • #17,267
  • Sep 20, 2023 1:37pm Sep 20, 2023 1:37pm
M1 S&P 500 ES 12-23

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Entries and exits taken on M1 & M3
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #17,268
  • Edited 9:43pm Sep 20, 2023 9:28pm | Edited 9:43pm
Back at it again with another attempted read, this time of the USDJPY.

We're in a big push upward into uncharted territory. Close to the All Time High (As far as my data goes at least) from OCT 2022. So I'm quite wary of this as a big psychological line.

Weekly, We're in an uptrend approaching that ATH. I feel as though the highs trendline and lows trendline is narrowing (could just be my lack of experience talking?). I also see that the highs trendline sits at that ATH resistance. Need to pay attention to what happens in and around that space.
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Daily, Price has been dancing up and down between 144.80 & 146.55 and then danced between 146.55 and 147.80. After breaking quite confidently through 147.80 (With a BUOB? Just checking I'm seeing that right), but It's just got a lot hanging over it's head. I'll be interested to see how price plays out at that ATH. Everything is looking up currently but there's a lot of pressure up there to clear.
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Bistolis I got a better daily range I think? I'm trying to find a reliable indicator for it on trading view. I think 88 is currently the 10 day average? Over double the AUDCHF so at least twice as interesting.

Handcuffs please.
  • #17,269
  • Sep 21, 2023 1:54am Sep 21, 2023 1:54am
Quoting JacobTrades
Back at it again with another attempted read, this time of the USDJPY. We're in a big push upward into uncharted territory. Close to the All Time High (As far as my data goes at least) from OCT 2022. So I'm quite wary of this as a big psychological line. Weekly, We're in an uptrend approaching that ATH. I feel as though the highs trendline and lows trendline is narrowing (could just be my lack of experience talking?). I also see that the highs trendline sits at that ATH resistance. Need to pay attention to what happens in and around that space.{image}...
For me the daily range works on lower time frames, since the more some instrument moves the better my chances to grab a piece. USDJPY is ok because it has great liquidity as well. My thoughts on this is that the $ has become too strong and the YEN too weak and at some point the BOJ will start intervening. PASR works no matter what
  • #17,270
  • Edited 9:43am Sep 21, 2023 9:26am | Edited 9:43am
Today I have created a folder for the collection of my biggest trading mistakes in order to avoid them in future. When I see a common pattern that has the potential to cost me dearly (and often did in the past!) I will put it inside. Reviewing it from time to time might help me to build the discipline to use Jacob's handcuffs - thank you, Jacob.

GBP/NZD "Whip to death trap" on M5:

After a nice Trend where PASR would create very profitable setups (at least two on my chart), the last candle of the trend was very long and also had a long wick. There followed a ton of "wicky" bars - maybe we should call it "Wicky the Chop robber"! Because as you can see from my chart, any PASR trigger bar in the direction of the trend without further context could likely be a loss with a PASR Trend trading SL. To add to that, it would be selling into support.

On a side note, today's Cable close on the Worker might become interesting, while waiting for it I am working on my understanding of the market having some more days before entering a new occupation ...
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Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #17,271
  • Sep 21, 2023 12:02pm Sep 21, 2023 12:02pm
S30 S&P 500 ES 12-23

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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #17,272
  • Sep 21, 2023 12:13pm Sep 21, 2023 12:13pm
Quoting JacobTrades
Back at it again with another attempted read, this time of the USDJPY. We're in a big push upward into uncharted territory. Close to the All Time High (As far as my data goes at least) from OCT 2022. So I'm quite wary of this as a big psychological line. Weekly, We're in an uptrend approaching that ATH. I feel as though the highs trendline and lows trendline is narrowing (could just be my lack of experience talking?). I also see that the highs trendline sits at that ATH resistance. Need to pay attention to what happens in and around that space.{image}...
You are in good hands with bistolis!

Observation:

Be careful in adding "stuff" to your charts. Anything you add after the Strat Shadow must add value to your analysis - if it doesn't, then remove it. The more "stuff" you add, the more there is to analyse which will result in paralysis of analysis and confuse the bejeebbers out of your Little People. Clean and Simple is better.

One "stuff" you can remove to free up chart space is Volume. There is no Central Exchange for Forex and all you are seeing on volume is the volume of your broker which is as much use as a crack in a glass eye.

You are progressing nicely - stick at it
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #17,273
  • Sep 21, 2023 12:53pm Sep 21, 2023 12:53pm
Quoting Hickson
Today I have created a folder for the collection of my biggest trading mistakes in order to avoid them in future. When I see a common pattern that has the potential to cost me dearly (and often did in the past!) I will put it inside. Reviewing it from time to time might help me to build the discipline to use Jacob's handcuffs - thank you, Jacob. GBP/NZD "Whip to death trap" on M5: After a nice Trend where PASR would create very profitable setups (at least two on my chart), the last candle of the trend was very long and also had a long wick. There...
I have created a folder for the collection of my biggest trading mistakes

Good - better would be to stick notes on your monitor or add them to your template.

GBP/NZD "Whip to death trap" on M5:

Apart from AUDNZD, all NZD pairs are notorious for whipping your ass.

the last candle of the trend was very long and also had a long wick.

That candle is an Exhaustion Candle - if it was on a Futures Chart there would be abnormal selling volume. This is telling you that particular down trend is over and done with and to expect consolidation until a new Swing/Trend starts. These Exhaustion Candles leave a very important "footprint" behind - learn and understand these.

However, just before that, PASR provides us with very important information that the down trend is in jeopardy. Look at the yellow rectangle before it. This shows a CLOSE above the Strat Shadow telling us that the buyers are gaining strength. Subsequent PA continues to show this until either the new UP trend is confirmed or that Exhaustion Candle is violated. Experienced PASR traders would also recognise the Strat Shadow going horizontal as shown by the 2nd yellow rectangle.

Because as you can see from my chart, any PASR trigger bar in the direction of the trend

Understand all the above and you will see there is no PASR trigger bar in the direction of the trend

Good job, Hickson - the tortoise is already outperforming the hare!

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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #17,274
  • Sep 21, 2023 3:03pm Sep 21, 2023 3:03pm
Quoting Hickson
Today I have created a folder for the collection of my biggest trading mistakes in order to avoid them in future. When I see a common pattern that has the potential to cost me dearly (and often did in the past!) I will put it inside. Reviewing it from time to time might help me to build the discipline to use Jacob's handcuffs - thank you, Jacob. GBP/NZD "Whip to death trap" on M5: After a nice Trend where PASR would create very profitable setups (at least two on my chart), the last candle of the trend was very long and also had a long wick. There...
Train your brain to look for these. Notice how it is trending slightly from the left and once it picks up momentum the shadow provides excellent entries
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PASR works on any timeframe , it doesnt matter much that this is 1minute chart of DOW
Same concept on the hourly chart. DOW picks up after FOMC and the shadow provides support(or resistance)
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  • #17,275
  • Sep 21, 2023 5:33pm Sep 21, 2023 5:33pm
Ola friends. Hickson, I'm glad to hear my handcuffs are helping more than just me! I'm determined to always keep them close at hand.

Something that really struck a chord with me was Strat's story about "Are you wanting to trade or are you wanting to make money" hmmm, I thought. Last time I traded was 10 years ago in highschool and then I did a lot of "trading" because there's always a setup somewhere right? Just gotta check other timeframes. Just gotta use other methods. Is that a wave 4? Oooooh, we're oversold. Oh cool this template shows a cross of the 50 line on the MACD......COME ON KID.

Well suffice it to say it didn't last, I didn't make my millions that time around because I wanted to make it fast. Thank God I didn't or I wouldn't have met my partner working a job on a shop floor. But now I got her so let's learn the right path. The Path of certainty and not trading just cos you wanna trade.

Something else I've read on here is to not beat yourself up when your analysis was correct and the market just chose to do something else. A big thing struck me before I came on here, found your thread and decided to commit. (Check my activity, I'm going NOWHERE ELSE. Not even to J16 because post 1 of the old says we dont need it anymore) The big thing was from a Bill Williams book my mother bought me back then. And he has a saying that I feel needs to be heard by any trader who is or was in my position.

WANT WHAT THE MARKET WANTS.

I'm very grateful for all of your inputs.

Strat, volume is gone. I'm still in the first 1/5 of the old thread and reading slow to make sure things are digested. I'll no doubt be rereading things constantly. In that same vein (and I know how you feel about people only here for a template so feel free to message me the answer or completely ignore the question, I 100% understand)

I see that you, Bistolis and Hickson all have different MAs to me. I'm using 20ema, 50sma, 100ema, 250sma. You have only 2 and they look positioned differently to mine. Hickson has 3 but his settings are different to mine too. I want to have my charts as close to nude as possible, but am already seeing a bit of power in the 20-50 MAs occasionally cropping up.

Are my settings sufficient or have they been refined over time? (as with volume being removed. Kind of good volume was removed because I was struggling with it. I think a lower volume PA candle was less reliable as there was less orders being pushed into it than the candles previous, therefore less force when it finally snapped? I guess doesn't matter now!)
  • #17,276
  • Sep 21, 2023 8:42pm Sep 21, 2023 8:42pm
Quoting JacobTrades
Ola friends. Hickson, I'm glad to hear my handcuffs are helping more than just me! I'm determined to always keep them close at hand. Something that really struck a chord with me was Strat's story about "Are you wanting to trade or are you wanting to make money" hmmm, I thought. Last time I traded was 10 years ago in highschool and then I did a lot of "trading" because there's always a setup somewhere right? Just gotta check other timeframes. Just gotta use other methods. Is that a wave 4? Oooooh, we're oversold. Oh cool this template shows a cross...
Keep reading and take your time - the market will be there when you're ready. Everything is spelled out numerous times in the thread - don't read to cherrypick info - there are no shortcuts, just keep doing what you're doing. And... you could've read 3 more pages in the time it took to write your post!
  • #17,277
  • Sep 22, 2023 12:54am Sep 22, 2023 12:54am
Quoting Barbaresco
{quote} Keep reading and take your time - the market will be there when you're ready. Everything is spelled out numerous times in the thread - don't read to cherrypick info - there are no shortcuts, just keep doing what you're doing. And... you could've read 3 more pages in the time it took to write your post!
Thank you Barbaresco

100% fair. Was just tryna make sure I'm not wasting time on something that is no longer part of the Path, like Volume. But your point is heard it's in there. I'll find it when it's time.
  • #17,278
  • Edited 6:20am Sep 22, 2023 2:37am | Edited 6:20am
Quoting Strat
{quote} I have created a folder for the collection of my biggest trading mistakes Good - better would be to stick notes on your monitor or add them to your template. GBP/NZD "Whip to death trap" on M5: Apart from AUDNZD, all NZD pairs are notorious for whipping your ass. the last candle of the trend was very long and also had a long wick. That candle is an Exhaustion Candle - if it was on a Futures Chart there would be abnormal selling volume. This is telling you that particular down trend is over and done with and to expect consolidation until...
Thanks Strat, this is an excellent explanation with much deeper understanding of what I was only barely noticing on my chart. Yes, taking all this into consideration, there is no PASR Trigger bar, because they all become invalid in isolation by the other elements of PASR (Structure, PASR at Strat Shadow, Shape of Strat Shadow). Sometimes there are "sore thumbs" sticking out inside or even above the Strat Shadow and single candles might close above/under the Strat Shadow - however, that looks different and it is very important to study this difference for me as it means to separate a losing trade from a very profitable one. Only after being absolutely sure about this difference, I can consistently apply it at the hard right moving edge ...

Today I was studying more M5 PASR on GBP/NZD because waiting for just one pair on the worker gives us a lot of time. In the meantime I can study PASR and investigate brokers. There was a strong trend today with several opportunities to enter (see my chart). Being honest with you and myself, trading it in real time I had probably only taken the last retest of the broken support for about 18 pips + whatever happens after I post, but this is already a late entry and the structure shows that there is already some indecision about the trend as well as some buying. So in my view, the last trade on my chart is not really "stress free".

In general, when the trend is so strong as on GBP/NZD today, PRICE tends to be a bit far from the Strat Shadow and placing a SL above the marked trigger bars has me thinking that it might be taken out if we get a pullback with PASR around the Shadow. Then I might just watch it and wonder why I did not enter, while the old blind man with ... hanging from ... etc. Is this a lack of trust in taking these entries OR is my approach on the chart wrong? (The first entry would not really qualify with only 25 minutes in the London session). Interesting enough: M1 offered textbook entries (but that is a bit advanced for me right now). The reason for my doubts are that the SL would be in front of the Strat Shadow - so any spike up could have hit them. Which did not happen though with the trend being so strong one hour after London Open, but we trade it live and not after the fact.
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Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #17,279
  • Sep 22, 2023 11:25am Sep 22, 2023 11:25am
M1 S&P 500 ES 12-23

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Entries and exits taken on M1 & M3
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #17,280
  • Sep 22, 2023 8:13pm Sep 22, 2023 8:13pm
Ola everyone. Happy weekend. I hope you all have some small fun thing planned to brighten it up for you!

Just looking back at the progress on the USDJPY and wanting to make sure I understand the difference between BUOB and BUEB.

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The last 3 candles playing with the 147.80 S/R line

Candle 1/3 we saw the candle just before 1/3 close above resistance and then candle 1/3 is a BUOB as the high and low of this bar are greater than the one just before it.

I think this bar is telling us sellers tried to fight the rise up and pull it back under the 147.80 line but the buyers were having none of it and closed strong above the line.

Candle 2/3, buyers are victorious on the close of 1/3 but theres a big gap between candles and by open we've gapped 18 pips. Someone doesn't want it going higher. Looking above them they have some spooky lines with the highs trend line and the looming 148.75 weekly resistance sitting above them. They tried to continue to climb but found a bunch of chickens on the train with them who all jumped out the window. Pushing price back below the 147.80 line. This candle is a BEOB as it made a higher high and a lower low.

Candle 3/3 (Yesterday) buyers found that they'd left a bunch of people at the station down there who all jumped on and said NOT TODAY SKIP. Perhaps they're running from the 20EMA climbing up at them. There is no lower wick on my data and they sprung up as a BUEB this time. Engulfing ad the open and close ate up the candle before (lows and highs not taken out in engulfing candles.

So gang, what do you think? Did I name those 3 candles right or are they not quite correct. Did I get them right but they're not positioned correctly? Did I get it totally wrong? Would love to hear from you all.

Enjoy your weekend!
Jacob
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