Daily Forex Technical Analysis By XtreamForex

Dow Futures Up, Market Rally Continues; Jobs Data in Focus

The positive momentum in Dow Jones futures ahead of Tuesday’s opening was mirrored by upward movement in S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures during overnight trading, indicating a buoyant start to the trading session.

This week, the ongoing vigor of the market rally remains a focal point as investors turn their attention towards the eagerly awaited Friday jobs report, a pivotal event in the closing week of August. The implications of this report are far-reaching, potentially influencing expectations around interest rate shifts. A strong report wouldn’t necessarily translate to an imminent rate hike, while a less robust report, with payroll gains hovering around 100,000, could potentially take the possibility of a rate hike off the table. Simultaneously, market watchers are gearing up for the release of the Commerce Department’s data on personal income and spending for July, an influential indicator of inflation favored by the Federal Reserve, scheduled for Thursday.

In terms of earnings, Salesforce.com (CRM), a key player within the Dow Jones, is poised to disclose its second-quarter earnings on Wednesday. Notably, this leaves just Nike (NKE) and Walgreens (WBA) as the remaining components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average yet to announce their earnings reports.

In addition, several software companies are slated to release their earnings, including MongoDB (MDB), Nutanix (NTNX), Samsara (IOT), as well as security software entities such as CrowdStrike (CRWD) and Okta (OKTA).

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USD/CHF Trims Five-Week Loss, Shifts to Mid-Tier Swiss/US Data

In the early hours of Wednesday’s European session, the USD/CHF currency pair continued to maintain its position, showing resilience after experiencing its most significant daily loss in the past five weeks, with levels hovering around 0.8790. This retracement in value is occurring in a backdrop where the US Dollar is preparing for pivotal data releases. Concurrently, there has been a perceptible shift in market sentiment away from the previous dovish stance held towards the Federal Reserve (Fed). This shift has created an environment that has enabled the Swiss Franc (CHF) to assert itself, resulting in the pairing securing its first daily gains in a span of three sessions.

The enduring influence of the US Dollar Index (DXY) remains palpable, maintaining a somewhat elevated position due to concerns stemming from recent data releases related to US consumer confidence, employment metrics, and the housing sector. These concerns primarily revolve around the looming possibility of a policy shift by the Federal Reserve. This change in stance becomes particularly evident as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell underscores the importance of anchoring future decisions on data dependencies, thereby underpinning the current hawkish posture. This pronounced sentiment shift has in turn reverberated across the Greenback and the broader landscape of US Treasury bond yields.

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GBP/USD Holds Near 1-Week High, USD Support, BoE and Fed Awaited

The GBP/USD pair is currently maintaining a stable position, having achieved progress over the course of the past three days. During the Asian session on Thursday, the pair exhibited a trading pattern characterized by subtle fluctuations, with its value hovering around 1.2720. This particular price point has experienced minimal changes throughout the day, residing just slightly below the peak reached in the preceding day – a notable high sustained for a duration of one week.

In contrast, the US Dollar (USD) is drawing support from a significant technical indicator known as the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). This support has effectively halted the USD’s recent decline from its elevated position reached back in June. This occurrence acts as a resistance factor for the GBP/USD pair, influencing its movement. In parallel, the anticipation of potential interest rate hikes by the Bank of England (BoE) continues to bolster the British Pound. This, in turn, shapes a prudent outlook for traders with a bearish stance on the pair.

The Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, Ben Broadbent, has articulated the possibility of prolonged maintenance of restrictive policy rates due to the enduring effects of persistent price surges. On the other side of the equation, the prospect of the Federal Reserve (Fed) enacting a temporary halt in its series of rate hikes is exerting downward pressure on the US Dollar. This counteracting force serves to mitigate the potential downward shifts in the GBP/USD pair.

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USD/CAD Hovers at 1.3510 Despite Oil Strength, Awaits US NFP and Canada GDP Data

The USD/CAD pair remains in a defensive stance around 1.3510, rebounding from its two-week low as it enters the European session on Friday. This resilience comes even as the pair fails to respond positively to the surging prices of Canada’s primary export, WTI crude oil, with traders keeping a close watch on upcoming US employment data and Canadian GDP figures.

Despite a broader US Dollar recovery and anticipation of crucial economic data, the USD/CAD bears persisted in the previous session. The rise in WTI crude oil prices to a multi-day high added further downward pressure to the pair. Additionally, a significant revision in Canadian Current Account data for Q1 2023 contributed to the downward momentum.

Meanwhile, WTI crude oil has seen a four-day consecutive increase, reaching $83.40 and hitting a three-week high. This rally is driven by a series of measures implemented by China to safeguard its economy from a return to pandemic-induced conditions. Notably, the People’s Bank of China reduced the foreign reserve ratio by 2.0%, and numerous Chinese banks lowered Yuan deposit rates. Adverse weather conditions, including Hurricane Idalia in the US and concerns about a typhoon in China, along with a substantial inventory drawdown in the US, have also fueled the rise in oil prices.

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USD/JPY Surges Past 146.00, Awaits Japan GDP and US ISM Services PMI

USD/JPY is holding steady around 146.10-15 as we enter Monday’s European session, following a slow start to the week with Japan’s GDP numbers and the US ISM Services PMI in focus. The lack of action in the Yen pair can be attributed to the US Labor Day holiday, as well as mixed signals from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ).

Earlier today, Japan’s Monetary Base data for August showed a 1.2% year-on-year growth in liquidity, compared to -1.3% in the previous period. Despite cautious optimism in the market and inactive bond markets due to the US holiday, the market still expects the BoJ to support the Japanese Yen (JPY).

In other news, market sentiment remains positive as China implements stimulus measures and hopes rise for no more rate hikes from the US Federal Reserve (Fed).
China’s government recently established a special cell to promote the private economy and remove barriers for the services industry, boosting sentiment on Monday. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) also made a significant cut to its foreign exchange reserve requirement ratio (FX RRR), with several China banks reducing interest rates on Yuan deposits. Furthermore, there are reports that China will take more action to revive the country’s property sector.

On the flip side, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve (Fed) adopting a hawkish stance in the future has decreased, particularly following the mixed US jobs report for August. This positive market sentiment weighs on the USD/JPY price.

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EUR/USD Tests Key Support Level as Focus Shifts to ECB and Economic Data

The EUR/USD currency pair is in a bit of a sticky situation. It’s currently hanging around the 1.0780 level, which is pretty important. It’s been at this level for about 5.5 months. Recently, there was a tiny bounce, but that excitement didn’t last long. Why? Well, the European Central Bank (ECB) folks didn’t drop any hints that they’re going to be super aggressive with their money moves. On the flip side, the US Dollar is flexing its muscles because of changes in interest rates and some big money events coming up in Europe and the US.

Philip Lane, who’s the big shot economist at the ECB, said that inflation data for August wasn’t looking so hot. But he also said we should chill a bit and wait for more data before we go making any big decisions. The ECB President, Christine Lagarde, is also all about keeping our expectations for inflation in check. Other bigwigs at the ECB think the same way.

Now, over in the US, things are looking up. The US job numbers (Nonfarm Payrolls) and what Moody’s thinks about US growth have people thinking that the US might get more serious about its money game. That’s been giving the Euro a hard time. Plus, folks in the market aren’t completely sold on what China is doing with its money, and there’s some tension between China and the US, which makes the US Dollar look even better.

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Chinese Property Stocks Fail to Ease Growth Concerns, Bears Control Asian Stock Market

The Asian stock market is not doing so well today. Even though China’s property stocks are getting better, the overall situation is not great. People who trade stocks are being careful because they saw big losses yesterday. They are also waiting for a report called the US ISM Services PMI.

A thing called the MSCI’s Index of Asia-Pacific shares (excluding Japan) has gone down by almost 1%. But in Japan, something called the Nikkei 225 has gone up by 0.75% in the morning.

Yesterday, a number for China’s Caixin Services PMI in August was not so good. It was 51.8, which is lower than the 54.1 from before. This made people worry about China’s economy. There is also a problem between the US and China, and the US Commerce Secretary talked about it. She said that the US will keep taxes on things from China until they look at it again in four years.

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NZD/USD Hovers Near November 2022 Lows at 0.5865-60

The NZD/USD pair is currently facing a tough challenge during the Asian trading session. It’s hovering around a level between 0.5865 and 0.5860, marking its lowest point since way back in November 2022. The main culprit behind this struggle is the strong US Dollar (USD), and the Federal Reserve (often referred to as the Fed) isn’t showing any signs of lowering interest rates anytime soon. This weighty situation has put significant pressure on the NZD/USD pair.

Recent positive news about the US economy has added to the pressure. A key indicator called the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, which measures the health of service-based businesses like restaurants and stores, reached its highest level since February. This signals that the US economy is performing quite well. This positive news has led many to believe that the Fed might increase interest rates again this year. When the Fed does that, it’s generally good news for the US Dollar.

However, investors are growing increasingly concerned about a couple of factors. When interest rates rise, it can become more expensive for individuals and businesses to borrow money, potentially slowing down the economy. Moreover, there’s unease surrounding China’s economic slowdown. These concerns have collectively dampened the appetite for riskier assets, including the New Zealand Dollar, which is often affectionately called the Kiwi.

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GBP/USD Recovers, Stays Below 1.2500

GBP/USD has seen a glimmer of hope after enduring three consecutive days of losses. In the Asian trading session on Friday, the currency pair made a modest recovery, hovering around the 1.2490 mark. This turnaround can be primarily attributed to a correction in the value of the US Dollar (USD), which had been enjoying an impressive winning streak for the past three days. The trigger for this correction can be traced back to a pullback in US Treasury yields. In particular, the 10-year US Treasury bond yields experienced a decline of 1.36%, resting at 4.22%, as compared to the previous day.

The recent US economic data has played a role in shaping the currency dynamics. On Thursday, the release of employment data revealed that Initial Jobless Claims had fallen to 216K on September 1st, a notable improvement from the previous figure of 229K. This exceeded expectations, as analysts had projected an increase to 234K. Additionally, in the second quarter (Q2), US Unit Labor Costs surged to 2.2%, a significant uptick from the previous 1.6%, contradicting earlier forecasts. These favorable economic indicators have been contributing to the strengthening of the US Dollar (USD).

The US Dollar Index (DXY), a gauge of the Greenback’s performance against six major currencies, is currently trading around the 104.90 mark. Although it remains below its highest level since April, which it reached on Thursday, the USD is displaying resilience.

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AUD/USD Surges Above 0.6420 Mark as USD Weakens and Hopes for US Soft Landing Increase

During the Asian session on Monday, the AUD/USD held above the 0.6400 area, with the Australian Dollar (AUD) benefiting from a weaker US Dollar and diminishing concerns about China’s deflation. Currently trading near 0.6425, the pair has gained 0.75% for the day.

Following the G20 Summit, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen expressed greater confidence that the US can effectively manage inflation without negatively impacting the job market. Yellen also stated that inflation indicators are decreasing, with no significant wave of layoffs. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee also outlined the central bank’s objective of leading the economy towards a “golden path.” This scenario envisions falling inflation rates without causing a recession. Furthermore, Fed New York President John Williams emphasized the decline in inflation and the improving economic balance.

Based on the CME FedWatch Tool, the market has priced in a 93% probability of interest rates remaining unchanged at the September meeting and a 43.5% chance of a rate hike at the November meeting. Strong US economic data from last week supports the expectation of a sustained low-interest rate environment in the US. This could strengthen the US Dollar (USD) and limit the upside potential of the AUD/USD pair.

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GBP/JPY aims for 184.00 as UK employment data paints a mixed picture

During the Asian trading session on Tuesday, GBP/JPY exhibited a resilient upward trend, currently hovering around the 183.70 mark. The pair’s recent gains can be attributed to a nuanced assessment of the latest employment data emanating from the United Kingdom.

The Office for National Statistics unveiled key labor market indicators that stirred the forex landscape. To begin with, the ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) for July came in at 4.3%, marking a slight uptick from the previous reading. This figure, however, remained in alignment with market expectations, somewhat soothing trader sentiments. Conversely, the headline Employment Change for July left markets disheartened, recording a worrisome decline of 207,000 jobs, a stark contrast to the previous month’s modest growth of 66,000 positions. This disappointing plunge surpassed market forecasts, which had anticipated a more modest reduction of 185,000 jobs. On a brighter note, the Claimant Count Change for August displayed a positive shift, improving to 0.9K from the previous figure of 29K, signaling a potential turnaround in the UK labor market.

In parallel developments, Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann injected a dose of optimism into the British Pound (GBP). Mann’s remarks suggested that it is premature for the central bank to halt its interest rate adjustments. She emphasized a proclivity towards pursuing a more aggressive rate-hiking strategy rather than ceasing these adjustments prematurely. Such hawkish commentary often resonates well with traders, providing support for the British Pound (GBP) and, by extension, the GBP/JPY pair.

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USD/CAD Steady Above 1.3500s, Eyes on US CPI Report

In the early hours of Wednesday’s Asian trading session, the USD/CAD currency pair found itself in a stable position, hovering just above the mid-1.3500s range. This marks a phase of consolidation for the pair, following its recent descent to a one-and-a-half-week low that was recorded just the day before.

One of the key factors influencing the exchange rate dynamics in this context is the robust performance of crude oil prices. These prices have been on an upward trajectory, currently residing close to a 10-month high. The driving force behind this surge is the mounting concerns over tightening global supplies of oil. OPEC’s decision to implement deeper supply cuts, coupled with a surge in global demand, has set the stage for further tightening of oil markets throughout the year. In light of this, the Canadian dollar, often regarded as a petrocurrency due to its close correlation with oil prices, is experiencing a boost, while the US dollar is grappling with a muted performance. This divergence between the two currencies has effectively established a level of resistance for the USD/CAD pair .

As traders navigate these market dynamics, a notable event on the horizon is the impending release of the US consumer inflation figures, scheduled for later in the North American trading session. These figures are highly anticipated as they are expected to offer crucial insights into the Federal Reserve’s prospective plans regarding interest rate hikes. The outcome of this release is poised to significantly influence the directional course of the USD/CAD pair. Moreover, the prevailing sentiment among investors is one of confidence in the Federal Reserve’s commitment to maintaining a hawkish stance and prolonging higher interest rates. This sentiment is partly rooted in the recent string of positive macroeconomic data emanating from the United States, coupled with inflation that has shown a slower-than-expected pace of increase. These factors collectively lend support to the notion of further monetary policy tightening in the near future.

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XAG/USD Vulnerable, Aiming for $22.20-$22.10 Retest

Silver witnessed a fleeting upward movement during the Asian trading session, attempting to breach the pivotal $23.00 level. However, this surge was short-lived, with silver unable to maintain the momentum required to sustain a position above this critical threshold. Delving into the intricacies of this price action, the breach below the $22.85-$22.80 support range signifies a significant shift in market sentiment that leans decidedly bearish. This sentiment is further corroborated by closely examining the oscillators on the daily chart, which appear to signal the potential for further downward movement.

The repercussions of this bearish sentiment set the stage for a testing period for silver as it gears up for a retest of the robust support zone in the $22.20-$22.10 range. In more pessimistic scenarios, the price could venture even lower, extending its downward trajectory to the $21.25 region.

In the event of a shift in momentum favoring the upside, silver would encounter various resistance levels. Initially, surpassing the psychological hurdle at $23.00 would be met with a resistance barrier of around $23.20. Further upward momentum would then contend with the presence of the 200-day Simple Moving Average, a key technical indicator, which is situated within the $23.45-$23.50 range. Beyond this, the 100-day SMA would pose another formidable obstacle at approximately $23.80, closely followed by the psychologically significant $24.00 level.

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USD Index Corrects Lower to 105.30, Awaits Data

The USD Index (DXY), measuring the greenback against its major counterparts, experiences a slight retreat, trading around the 105.30 level at the week’s end. This decline comes after three consecutive daily gains that followed Thursday’s peak in the 105.40/45 range.

The subdued risk appetite across global markets puts pressure on the US dollar. European markets open with caution, still digesting the outcomes of the recent ECB meeting. Additionally, US yields, which rose on Thursday, are poised to continue their advance.

Market sentiment surrounding the Federal Reserve’s upcoming actions is undergoing a shift. Bets on a 25 basis point rate hike in November are waning, while speculation about interest rate cuts in the second quarter of the next year gains traction.

On the economic calendar, the US is set to release data on Export/Import Prices, followed by reports on Industrial/Manufacturing Production, Capacity Utilization, and the preliminary figures for Consumer Sentiment for the current month.

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EUR/GBP Surges Above 0.8600, Focus on Fed and BoE Choices

EUR/GBP has continued its upward trajectory, making gains for the second consecutive day and currently trading at around 0.8610 during the European trading session on Monday. This surge in the currency pair can be attributed in part to the recent statements made by Christine Lagarde, the President of the European Central Bank (ECB), which have bolstered market confidence.

Lagarde’s remarks on Friday were particularly noteworthy, as she indicated that ECB policymakers had not contemplated the implementation of further rate cuts. Furthermore, she emphasized the central bank’s commitment to maintaining interest rates at elevated levels for an extended period and expressed a willingness to raise rates if deemed necessary. This stance has reassured investors and traders alike, contributing to the Euro’s strength.

Commerzbank economists have also weighed in on the aftermath of the ECB’s recent rate decision. According to their analysis, the ECB’s move to signal the suspension of rate hikes aligns with market expectations. Nevertheless, it carries a degree of risk as it hints at a potentially less hawkish stance on monetary policy, which could impact the Euro’s performance in the coming days.

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WTI Crude Oil Continues Its Ascent Below $91.00 Amid Tight Supply Prospects

WTI, the U.S. benchmark for crude oil, is demonstrating resilience as it hovers around the $90.90 mark on Tuesday, driven primarily by a constrained supply outlook championed by Saudi Arabia and Russia. Nonetheless, the trajectory of WTI prices remains clouded by concerns related to a potential economic deceleration in China, which could potentially impede further price hikes.

The recent upswing in WTI prices can be unequivocally attributed to the deliberate actions of two oil giants—Saudi Arabia and Russia. These formidable players in the global oil market have unveiled their plans to sustain a tight grip on oil production cuts until the conclusion of 2023. In a committed move, Saudi Arabia has pledged to curtail its daily oil output to an approximate 1.3 million barrels, a commitment set to endure through the aforementioned timeframe. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has issued a stern warning, asserting that the oil market’s deficits will only exacerbate during the fourth quarter, courtesy of the production cuts strategically orchestrated by Saudi Arabia and Russia over the summer.

In a recent statement, Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister underscored the collaborative efforts of the OPEC+ alliance in stabilizing oil markets and bolstering global energy security. Notably, no explicit target price for crude oil was disclosed. However, it was acknowledged that the market’s current volatile landscape is being significantly influenced by the prevailing ambiguity surrounding China’s oil demand, thereby casting a significant shadow on global crude prices.

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USD/JPY Treads Water Below 148.00 Ahead of Fed Rate Decision

As the eagerly awaited Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision inches closer, the USD/JPY currency pair finds itself in a holding pattern, oscillating within the narrow range of 147.70 to 147.85 during the early European trading session on Wednesday. Presently, the pair is hovering at 147.83, registering a minimal 0.01% decline for the day.

Market participants widely anticipate the Fed to maintain its current interest rates in the September meeting, as indicated by the CME Fedwatch Tool, which assigns a 99% probability to this scenario. However, the outlook for rate hikes in November and December has been adjusted downward, a factor that might exert downward pressure on the US Dollar.

In an effort to align US economic growth with its potential rate and address concerns about inflation, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has expressed the need for a slowdown. Meanwhile, the latest economic data reveals that US Building Permits for August surpassed expectations, but Housing Starts saw a slight decline.

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Stocks Plummet, US Yields Surge, Dollar Gains Momentum as Federal Reserve Adopts Hawkish Stance

Asia-Pacific shares followed the downward trend set by Wall Street on Thursday, as investors interpreted the latest policy statements from the US Federal Reserve as a signal of higher and longer interest rates.

The broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan, MSCI’s (.MIAPJ0000PUS), was down 0.4% in early afternoon Hong Kong time. Japan’s Nikkei (.N225) slid 0.6%, China’s blue-chip (.CSI300) dipped 0.6%, and Hong Kong’s benchmark shed 1.3%.

The yield on two-year US Treasury notes rose to a 17-year high of 5.1970% on Thursday morning and hovered around 5.18% by early afternoon.
Similarly, Japan’s 10-year government bond yield reached its highest level in a decade, in line with the US 10-year Treasury yields, which hit a 16-year peak at 4.4310%.

“We anticipate further increases in bond yields in the near future due to the Federal Reserve’s hawkish position,” said Tai Hui, APAC chief market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. He added that while high interest rates can cool the economy, they remain positive on long-term government bonds, investment grade corporate debt, as well as growth and tech stocks.

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USD/JPY Targets 148.50 as Bank of Japan Holds Interest Rates Steady

USD/JPY rebounds from Thursday’s losses following the Bank of Japan’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged. As expected, the BoJ maintained its current rates at -0.1%. During early European trading on Friday, the spot price is hovering around 148.30.

In a press conference after the September policy meeting, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda hinted at the possibility of ending yield curve control and adjusting negative interest rates when 2% inflation is within reach. He emphasized that the BOJ’s policy decision-making process remains unchanged, with careful analysis of new data at every monetary policy meeting.

Ueda also mentioned that inflation has not yet reached a stable 2% level and that the next monetary policy decision in October will consider data including the government’s extension of gasoline subsidies. The Bank of Japan is prepared to implement further easing measures if necessary due to uncertainty in economic conditions, price trends, and currency and financial markets.

Japan’s National Consumer Price Index for August showed a reading of 3.2%, slightly lower than the previous rate of 3.3%. The National CPI ex-Fresh Food remained consistent at 3.1% against expectations of 3.0%.

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