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The Swamp

  • #112,061
  • Sep 18, 2023 9:41am Sep 18, 2023 9:41am
German economy to shrink in Q3: Bundesbank...
https://www.reuters.com/markets/euro...nk-2023-09-18/
I am who I am
  • #112,062
  • Sep 18, 2023 11:05am Sep 18, 2023 11:05am
Quoting imwim
German economy to shrink in Q3: Bundesbank... https://www.reuters.com/markets/euro...nk-2023-09-18/
Looks like it's a good day to fade bank research.
  • #112,063
  • Sep 18, 2023 10:55pm Sep 18, 2023 10:55pm
Been trading US30 last two days, tomorrow I am going to focus on Eur

9/19 Tuesday trading levels.. one day before FMOC...

1.0724
1.0707
1.0697

1.0680 - PP

1.0663
1.0652
1.0635

next print 1.0697 or 1.0663
  • #112,064
  • Edited 5:22am Sep 19, 2023 5:12am | Edited 5:22am
Quoting Boulder
Been trading US30 last two days, tomorrow I am going to focus on Eur 9/19 Tuesday trading levels.. one day before FMOC... 1.0724 1.0707 1.0697 1.0680 - PP 1.0663 1.0652 1.0635 next print 1.0697 or 1.0663
I got bears 1h support at 0674. 4h R at 0714. With a down trend the 1h is destined to fail. But if not I think a 4h close 0714+, and a 1h close 0718 could test 0749.8. A close above 0749.8 today, may give pa further rise. The trend being down, these are all R including 0691.8 and 0684. The 12h just closed below most of these excluding 0784. Compression between 0674 and 0699x. The 2023 close 1.07000 area. Last week closed on the bear side. Bulls need to make an effort to take 0750 today, to close. 0610 0623 0576 in this trend is looking more likely. But pa since pa has already run closer to 0610. Even though its bearish. It can run to 0835 area. Week range about 0816. I'm trying to wait for a bump. But I may be missing a short here 069x..PA has run 600 pips. So I want to see a pump to short.
I would like to see 0835 again. 50% is above 0900
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #112,065
  • Sep 19, 2023 6:01am Sep 19, 2023 6:01am
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  • #112,066
  • Sep 19, 2023 7:05am Sep 19, 2023 7:05am
Quoting Boulder
Been trading US30 last two days, tomorrow I am going to focus on Eur 9/19 Tuesday trading levels.. one day before FMOC... 1.0724 1.0707 1.0697 1.0680 - PP 1.0663 1.0652 1.0635 next print 1.0697 or 1.0663
Looking to long Eur.. day range high 1.0742

9/19 Tuesday trading levels.. one day before FMOC...

1.0724
1.0707
1.0697

1.0680 - PP

1.0663
1.0652
1.0635

next print 1.0724 or 1.0663
  • #112,067
  • Sep 19, 2023 7:10am Sep 19, 2023 7:10am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} Trend status atm ( current price at 1.0730) Ranging , between H1 1.0702 to H4 1.0814 Downtrend Stops H4 1.0816 M15 1.0756 Uptrend Stops M30 1.0721 H1 1.0702
Trend status atm ( current price at 1.0711)

Ranging , between H1 1.0663 to H4 1.0771

Downtrend Stops
H4 1.0771

Uptrend Stops
M15 1.0689
M30 1.0681
H1 1.0663
  • #112,068
  • Sep 19, 2023 7:25am Sep 19, 2023 7:25am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I got bears 1h support at 0674. 4h R at 0714. With a down trend the 1h is destined to fail. But if not I think a 4h close 0714+, and a 1h close 0718 could test 0749.8. A close above 0749.8 today, may give pa further rise. The trend being down, these are all R including 0691.8 and 0684. The 12h just closed below most of these excluding 0784. Compression between 0674 and 0699x. The 2023 close 1.07000 area. Last week closed on the bear side. Bulls need to make an effort to take 0750 today, to close. 0610 0623 0576 in this trend is looking more...
ATM pa is testing 0717. 4h 0714. If this 4h closes above 0714,17. It's still within a large downtrend. But it may be able to close today above 0749.8. That may allow more rise. 0717.6 and 0749.8 may also be R. See chart
0743 is adr.. So getting to and above 0749.8 is likely strength.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #112,069
  • Sep 19, 2023 7:36am Sep 19, 2023 7:36am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} ATM pa is testing 0717. 4h 0714. If this 4h closes above 0714,17. It's still within a large downtrend. But it may be able to close today above 0749.8. That may allow more rise. 0717.6 and 0749.8 may also be R. See chart 0743 is adr.. So getting to and above 0749.8 is likely strength. {image}
excluding 0714. The rest mentioned in the last 2 post can start to support once pa has sustained closes above. If not, they are R.
This quarter dont close until the month ends. Q pp 0877, 6 month 0827, year pp 0576. Last week the week trend broke. A rise will likely fail. That can be anytime. I like to think its less than 100 pip bounce atm after 600+ drop. I think it should be more than 100 pips. 0835 or maybe 0942 areas
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #112,070
  • Sep 19, 2023 7:48am Sep 19, 2023 7:48am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} excluding 0714. The rest mentioned in the last 2 post can start to support once pa has sustained closes above. If not, they are R. This quarter dont close until the month ends. Q pp 0877, 6 month 0827, year pp 0576. Last week the week trend broke. A rise will likely fail. That can be anytime. I like to think its less than 100 pip bounce atm after 600+ drop. I think it should be more than 100 pips. 0835 or maybe 0942 areas
In hindsight I should of shorted 0717 and put it at b.e. Maybe tp 0675+. But today 1.0749.8 is important for bulls. So the normal 0675 retrace may not make it.
0675 is about 40 pips. with adr its about 70. In trend more.
since today bulls want/need 0749.8 and its a tiny retrace. I will wait to see
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #112,071
  • Sep 19, 2023 8:00am Sep 19, 2023 8:00am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} Trend status atm ( current price at 1.0711) Ranging , between H1 1.0663 to H4 1.0771 Downtrend Stops H4 1.0771 Uptrend Stops M15 1.0689 M30 1.0681 H1 1.0663
I started some longs at this drop,, stop loss 1.0650

Trend status atm ( current price at 1.0699)

Ranging , between H1 1.0657 to H4 1.0771

Downtrend Stops
H4 1.0771

Uptrend Stops
M15 1.0690
M30 1.0680
H1 1.0657
  • #112,072
  • Sep 19, 2023 8:33am Sep 19, 2023 8:33am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} I started some longs at this drop,, stop loss 1.0650 Trend status atm ( current price at 1.0699) Ranging , between H1 1.0657 to H4 1.0771 Downtrend Stops H4 1.0771 Uptrend Stops M15 1.0690 M30 1.0680 H1 1.0657
Collected some on this drop,, , I will flat all today, not leave for FMOC tomorrow
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  • #112,073
  • Sep 19, 2023 11:12am Sep 19, 2023 11:12am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} In hindsight I should of shorted 0717 and put it at b.e. Maybe tp 0675+. But today 1.0749.8 is important for bulls. So the normal 0675 retrace may not make it. 0675 is about 40 pips. with adr its about 70. In trend more. since today bulls want/need 0749.8 and its a tiny retrace. I will wait to see
1h support at 0675. The trend is down. PA tested the 4h and, 0717. The 4h is dropping lower. But the levels remain as R. Bulls have to beat those to rise.

PA is bearish. No 1h close below 0675, and it may retest R.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #112,074
  • Sep 19, 2023 8:44pm Sep 19, 2023 8:44pm
Nothing bullish in pa. Just some support needing a break or rejection. FOMC may give a direction. Later in the week has more red news.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #112,075
  • Sep 19, 2023 8:47pm Sep 19, 2023 8:47pm
Quoting Ferna
{quote} So where are we now compared to then? What came true?
Where is the usd since?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #112,076
  • Sep 19, 2023 11:44pm Sep 19, 2023 11:44pm
Quoting Ferna
{quote} So where are we now compared to then? What came true?
Greece is a very nice expat spot schools and food and very nice ambiance .. Its the stairs OMG the stairs every day up and down everywhere you go. A knee replacement may be in your future.
  • #112,077
  • Sep 20, 2023 5:12am Sep 20, 2023 5:12am
Quoting Ferna
{quote} It appreciated in value about 5%.
Price down in trend, price retrace 50%ish. Price falls again into trend. USD gets stronger. = more usd funding the cheaper Greek (EU) vacations. Probably less in Greek fire season. Oil/energy chips away each day on ez. As things stand. Europe and Asia become slaves to energy producers. That tax weighs each and every day. Right around late 2009 the U.S. started to produce a surplus of oil. Where has the usd gone? Oil is in every fiber of Europe's China's economy. Each drop used helps the usd over time. 1970 to 2008 was 38 years. Last year the usd recovered 20yrs of those back. More to come. Unless some genius discovers a new method of energy. A method Europe, Asia can use on their own. PS all oil comes from the sun. Unless you want to pay a oil tax on everything. Eliminate the many middlemen. Use the money fighting wars protecting oil kings. To develop another way. The true price of oil is many more times than WTI. Add in the price of war/blood. Take away the money. And you will see less terrorist sponsorship.

W/o using a trajectory before 1969. The usd may strengthen to 1970 levels against Europe. I expect this. A trajectory can go deeper like the u.s. oil production deficit trajectory did rise before 1969. The opposite effect can boost the usd to higher than 1970 levels
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #112,078
  • Sep 20, 2023 5:16am Sep 20, 2023 5:16am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} Collected some on this drop,, , I will flat all today, not leave for FMOC tomorrow {image}
flat all those longs, sideline for fomc
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  • #112,079
  • Sep 20, 2023 5:37am Sep 20, 2023 5:37am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 1h support at 0675. The trend is down. PA tested the 4h and, 0717. The 4h is dropping lower. But the levels remain as R. Bulls have to beat those to rise. PA is bearish. No 1h close below 0675, and it may retest R.
The trend is down. Price will likely drop. I will try to wait for a rise before. I have in mind 0827, 35 0942 52. But most evidence is bearish. 0749.8 1776 81 are before. SOS with 0717.. 0674 light support now.
Keep those in mind. If the news is usd positive, in this usd uptrend. The usd should rise, and the EU should fall. But if the opposite is happening . Its likely rising on techs.
FOMC can take out that harddeck..0576 0610 0623. The opposite can be a retest 50%.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #112,080
  • Sep 20, 2023 5:37am Sep 20, 2023 5:37am
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