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  • #112,041
  • Sep 14, 2023 10:26pm Sep 14, 2023 10:26pm
Quoting gatorinla
First the trend is very bearish. I dont have a long. If i did, it would be at near support. The trend id down below very large levels PP month 0889, Q 0877, 6 month 0827, inception level 0835 mid. ATM below 0678 week trend needing a closebelow. ATM ps is approaching the year pp at 1.0576. Also see chart. See the past rection to take 0942.The first time 0942 was tested as support, pa bounced. Later after breaking down below 0942, It came back to 0942 as a resistance. 1.0610 is the sister similar to the 0942. The level last at 0776. PA may bounce...
I mentioned 0942. Its well above the 0814 27 35 etc. I like retraces to enter. This time of year pa may not retrace. But if tomorrow should close above 0678. It may retrace. At the current low, a 50% retrace is just above 0942. The trend is down. So it is likely to drop. Tonight the auto workers may strike. Over a few weeks that may hurt the usd. Tomorrow at close this and some other news may be baked in. Regarding a close below 0678. That would indicate a weekly downtrend starting. But it is in that downtrend on the week that includes 0942. So pa may can run up still. I had hoped pa to reach 0875 earlier this week. There is just too much R in the way. The ECB raised, and the Euro weakened verse usd. I dont know if 0576 0510 0622 will force some bounce. I know they can. I would like to short. But would like a bounce that may not come.
PA is testing past support..
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  • #112,042
  • Sep 15, 2023 4:06am Sep 15, 2023 4:06am
If by some crazy chance today, pa closes above 0749.8. Expect more to follow. It could fall from there too. Mostly it will go less the about 10/12 pips above. But its not in stone. Bears would probably be back if under 0717 after. The trend being down. 0749.8 may be R. But that downtrend not closing below 0678 today can also be a rejection. The auto workers are on strike. So if pa finds itself 0717+12 pips. It may be real. +0749.8 closed today is strong. 0717 may start to support.


https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/15/busin...ike/index.html
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #112,043
  • Sep 15, 2023 4:16am Sep 15, 2023 4:16am
day adr atm can be 0597, or 0699. 0664 is LC
0664 in a downtrend can be a good short. Using average trade, on a average day. I cant put that strike as a average day
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #112,044
  • Sep 15, 2023 4:27am Sep 15, 2023 4:27am
Another average day trade in a downtrend that dont come too often. ADR reached North, when in a downtrend. The same opposite in a uptrend. 0799. Both (0664 or better 0699) of these are normally decent places to short. During the digestion that auto strike and weekly 0778. The past support at 064x, 0622. 0610. It may not be.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #112,045
  • Sep 15, 2023 4:46am Sep 15, 2023 4:46am
0699/98 is a cherry short in a downtrend. I may take it. Back to 0664 tp some, or trend. Normally a good short. But today it can get screwy. Today may not be normal
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #112,046
  • Sep 15, 2023 4:50am Sep 15, 2023 4:50am
Quoting gatorinla
day adr atm can be 0597, or 0699. 0664 is LC 0664 in a downtrend can be a good short. Using average trade, on a average day. I cant put that strike as a average day
I have .703 as daily average , will short from there, if it gets there.
Strike info has been out there awhile with no major reaction so maybe it wont impact.
703 is .618 fib of yesterdays move, but looks a long way off at the moment
Its all just one persons opinion
  • #112,047
  • Sep 15, 2023 4:51am Sep 15, 2023 4:51am
Quoting gatorinla
0699 is a cherry short in a downtrend. I may take it. Back to 0664 tp some, or trend. Normally a good short. But today it can get screwy. Today may not be normal
I see it going up all day. Shouldn't break 1.0710. But NY should retrace down a bit and lauch a move for 1.0700. Then Monday 1.0720 can be tested.
  • #112,048
  • Sep 15, 2023 4:52am Sep 15, 2023 4:52am
Quoting gatorinla
If by some crazy chance today, pa closes above 0749.8. Expect more to follow. It could fall from there too. Mostly it will go less the about 10/12 pips above. But its not in stone. Bears would probably be back if under 0717 after. The trend being down. 0749.8 may be R. But that downtrend not closing below 0678 today can also be a rejection. The auto workers are on strike. So if pa finds itself 0717+12 pips. It may be real. +0749.8 closed today is strong. 0717 may start to support. https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/15/busin...ike/index.html...
Hey, Like your posts. Been reading them for years. I wanted to point out that yesterday was the September futures contract roll for retail traders. This might help explain the hard push down and possible reversal. Hope this helps. Good Luck!
  • #112,049
  • Sep 15, 2023 4:59am Sep 15, 2023 4:59am
Quoting axecap
{quote} I have .703 as daily average , will short from there, if it gets there. Strike info has been out there awhile with no major reaction so maybe it wont impact. 703 is .618 fib of yesterdays move, but looks a long way off at the moment
The reaction is over time. Most will not know, or see 0678. I speculate its bad for the usd. I may speculate wrong. On a average day pulling 3% averaged off gdp adds up. 150K workers X non auto employees has a multiplier. Mortgages and credit cards dont get paid. Like in war, just a few guys actually shoot bullets. There is 10 guys behind making sure he has bullets. Auto workers are in just a small part of the workforce behind them.
I dont know what the multiplies is. Trains and ships shipping less. Nobody can figure it all up. They guesstimate through past strikes. This is the first time all 3 have gone on strike. It affects a lot of things. From the guy selling toilet paper, to the lobster fisherman.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #112,050
  • Sep 15, 2023 5:30am Sep 15, 2023 5:30am
678 is R3 ish on cam pivot and 38.2% fib.. ish and yesterdays S5.. ish , why do you say most not know or see?
Its all just one persons opinion
  • #112,051
  • Sep 15, 2023 5:51am Sep 15, 2023 5:51am
Quoting axecap
678 is R3 ish on cam pivot and 38.2% fib.. ish and yesterdays S5.. ish , why do you say most not know or see?
Because its a week trend level, bears want to close today below. You looking at smaller time frames. The smaller ones circulate around larger ones. It's actually been there since August 13. It is in a downtrend. It does need to take, and hold levels. Like 0678 on a like timeframe. In this case, 0678 needs a week close below. Or it can rise. 1.0678 is still in uptrend on the week. Bears need today to close below to kill that level.
It may run up if not.
On the surface 0664 LC or 0699 may be a good short in a down trend. They may work today and it may fall. They could be the high today before a leg down. Or +0678 could be today's close, and it runs up.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #112,052
  • Sep 15, 2023 6:03am Sep 15, 2023 6:03am
2022 pp over the horizon.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #112,053
  • Sep 15, 2023 6:15am Sep 15, 2023 6:15am
Quoting gatorinla
2022 pp over the horizon. {image}
Bears need to take 0678 on close today. If not it may bounce, before taking 1.0576 in the future.
PA went to the midpoint and retreated. Since that retreat pa is still above the 1/4 mark at 0652
On week trends like 0678.. It most often fails. To get the close the first attempt. That dont mean it wont this time. IF it can't, the reaction can be a decent rise. Later is can come back and try again.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #112,054
  • Sep 15, 2023 6:58am Sep 15, 2023 6:58am
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #112,055
  • Sep 15, 2023 9:04am Sep 15, 2023 9:04am
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #112,056
  • Sep 15, 2023 9:05am Sep 15, 2023 9:05am
Quoting Boulder
9/15 trading levels 1.0794 1.0748 1.0720 1.0674 - PP 1.0628 1.0600 1.0554 1.0628 printed, next print 1.06 or 1.0674
Hi Boulder

I'm wondering if you use a filter for downtrend/uptrend stops with your levels for confirmation?
  • #112,057
  • Sep 17, 2023 1:49am Sep 17, 2023 1:49am
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  • #112,058
  • Sep 17, 2023 7:39pm Sep 17, 2023 7:39pm
9/18 trading levels

1.0714
1.0692
1.0678

1.0655 - PP

1.0632
1.0618
1.0596

1.0655 printed, bext print 1.0678 or 1.0632
  • #112,059
  • Sep 17, 2023 10:10pm Sep 17, 2023 10:10pm
Take note of the date of 20th of September. Alot of stuff happening that day.
https://cointelegraph.com/news/us-la...digital-dollar

Notice also the sentence 'national security'. Bills on the 20th aiming to prevent the adoption of digital dollar.
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  • #112,060
  • Sep 18, 2023 12:59am Sep 18, 2023 12:59am
In short 0669
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