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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #5,341
  • Jun 3, 2007 9:50pm Jun 3, 2007 9:50pm
Hi,
With the Chinese market down, the bias would be on the downside today but that does not mean that the caryy trades are over...bottom fishing would be best to do...but just be careful...wait for the big boys to come in during the euro and american session to find the real direction of the market.. and watch out for the resistances and supports....
  • #5,342
  • Jun 3, 2007 10:07pm Jun 3, 2007 10:07pm
Quoting cesarnc
Agreed. Although Chinese stock market is selling off again, on rumors of the capital gains tax. As far as its correction is not spreaded as "risk aversion" throughout the world, this is an opportunity to build long positions for the rest of the week.

At least this is how I trade yen pairs. Bottom fishing + patience + SEVERAL BIG pips. I don't go for tiny scalping in pairs that can provide the trade of the week in a couple of days
Thank you cesarnc!
  • #5,343
  • Jun 3, 2007 10:33pm Jun 3, 2007 10:33pm
Quoting cesarnc
Agreed. Although Chinese stock market is selling off again, on rumors of the capital gains tax. As far as its correction is not spreaded as "risk aversion" throughout the world, this is an opportunity to build long positions for the rest of the week.

At least this is how I trade yen pairs. Bottom fishing + patience + SEVERAL BIG pips. I don't go for tiny scalping in pairs that can provide the trade of the week in a couple of days

an example trade of the [past] week(s) would be?
100% of traders are losers. Just that some win more than they lose!
  • #5,344
  • Jun 4, 2007 4:28am Jun 4, 2007 4:28am
Apocalypse prophets PREVENTED apocalypse from taking place

The whole world was flooded with talks on the Chinese bubble. So much was said over the need of a "strong correction", that the market is now looking at it simply as a "strong correction", nothing else.

All benchmark indexes in China closed between 7.7% - 8.0% negative. Note that February selloff was a -9% day

Since May 29th, Chinese stock market tumbled 16%, erasing some $ 350 billion of market value...

Looks like GJ is all about going higher and higher for quite some time...
  • #5,345
  • Jun 4, 2007 6:04am Jun 4, 2007 6:04am
Guys, could u perhaps help me? I realize that my knowledge of GBP and JPY is rather poor, so does anybody knows of a site, where fundamental basics are explained for both currencies and what drives them? It would certainly boost my understanding of all the volatility and bouncing od GBP/JPY.
THNX in advance.
  • #5,346
  • Edited 6:20am Jun 4, 2007 6:08am | Edited 6:20am
gj keeping safe distance above friday's high.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #5,347
  • Jun 4, 2007 6:37am Jun 4, 2007 6:37am
Quoting keramikus
Guys, could u perhaps help me? I realize that my knowledge of GBP and JPY is rather poor, so does anybody knows of a site, where fundamental basics are explained for both currencies and what drives them? It would certainly boost my understanding of all the volatility and bouncing od GBP/JPY.
THNX in advance.
I dont know about any site where GBP JPY fundamentals are explained in detail, however, you just have to read news related to carry trades, Dow jones influence on the carry trades, and any news related to USD, GBP and JPY. This is how you can make at least a basic opinion about the pair. The rest comes with practice. And one more important thing - go with the trend, go with the carry trade, do not short until you see a clear downtrend. And follow Cesarnc opinions, that guy knows what he is doing -one among few here.

Hope this helps, if nobody else can give you better info.
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #5,348
  • Jun 4, 2007 6:38am Jun 4, 2007 6:38am
Thnaks, much appreciated.
  • #5,349
  • Jun 4, 2007 6:55am Jun 4, 2007 6:55am
Look for preemptive selling in the carry trades ahead of NYSE open. China had a monster negative session, not spreaded to Europe, the latter trading negative, but way far from the Chinese slump.

Preemptive selling in the carries + no-selloff in NYSE = bottom fishers paradise.
  • #5,350
  • Jun 4, 2007 7:14am Jun 4, 2007 7:14am



Can someone explain to a confused old newbie what 'bottom fishing' is (it sounds like something the French do) And if it's a good thing to do, how do I do it ?
  • #5,351
  • Jun 4, 2007 7:19am Jun 4, 2007 7:19am
Quoting bundubill



Can someone explain to a confused old newbie what 'bottom fishing' is (it sounds like something the French do) And if it's a good thing to do, how do I do it ?
Looking for dips down often off trendlines to place buy orders.
  • #5,352
  • Jun 4, 2007 7:21am Jun 4, 2007 7:21am
Just studied carry trades and have a question: is there any general perception or strong indicator (read: not panic), that closing/repay of carry trades might become a reality by the end of 2007?
  • #5,353
  • Jun 4, 2007 7:23am Jun 4, 2007 7:23am
Quoting shadeslay
Looking for dips down often off trendlines to place buy orders.
I thought it might be but wasn't sure. Thanks for that Shadeslay.

Good luck
  • #5,354
  • Jun 4, 2007 7:23am Jun 4, 2007 7:23am
Quoting keramikus
..that closing/repay of carry trades might become a reality by the end of 2007?
that's a good question.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #5,355
  • Jun 4, 2007 7:36am Jun 4, 2007 7:36am
Quoting keramikus
Just studied carry trades and have a question: is there any general perception or strong indicator (read: not panic), that closing/repay of carry trades might become a reality by the end of 2007?
End of Fiscal Year in Japan, by March (or April, don't recall). During this period a load of yen is repatriated to Japan and carry trades are unwound pretty hard
  • #5,356
  • Jun 4, 2007 7:51am Jun 4, 2007 7:51am
down down, down it goes, where it stops no body knows.

Starting to pick up some momentum now.
  • #5,357
  • Jun 4, 2007 7:54am Jun 4, 2007 7:54am
08:51For the equity buffs, the Chines equity market had a precipitous drop overnight, which is more a continuation of last weeks action, than anything new to digest. having said that, the parrallel that we are looking to draw is one of the diversion of the Chinese stock market in particular relative to the the rest of the risk assets.

On my side, I'm loading the truck... In UJ mostly
  • #5,358
  • Jun 4, 2007 7:56am Jun 4, 2007 7:56am
added more long @ 241.80.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #5,359
  • Jun 4, 2007 7:58am Jun 4, 2007 7:58am
Quoting bravado
added more long @ 241.80.
That's my boy

Sorry, I'm bored...
  • #5,360
  • Jun 4, 2007 7:58am Jun 4, 2007 7:58am
GJ with a solid bounce off the 28 ema. Still going to err and wait for NYSE open even if it costs me a few pips.
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