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  • #1,561
  • Jun 2, 2007 2:40pm Jun 2, 2007 2:40pm
hi,
I read ur book which u shared with me & i m doing good with Elliot wave on 1 min chart & 4 chart..............but i love to be with Elliot wave guys & tell me where r u all available...............


Thanks in advance


Shivaji
"Trade for sake of trading & not for winning or Lossing"
  • #1,562
  • Jun 4, 2007 6:09am Jun 4, 2007 6:09am
The first I see is possibly wave 3 of larger wave Bup to 2+ on the daily.In terms of how long it will get there I am not sure but I would imagine about a week. see the first chart.

The other scenario is a couple of ABC's getting smaller with eventual break out possibly to the down side. See second chart.

looking like wave 3 of larger Bup at the moment.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: B up.jpg Size: 40 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: abc.jpg Size: 40 KB
Eish! If you don't fly with the eagles you'll scratch with the turkeys
  • #1,563
  • Jun 5, 2007 3:20am Jun 5, 2007 3:20am
Well it certainly looks like we are heading up nicely. heading for the 61.8% at 1.9956 area with possibly a push past that, for end of wave 3 but I think that res. at 1.9956 will be hard to push I will TP there. If fundamentals are strong enough to push it through then I will rejoin the ride to about 2.033 before wave 4 down.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: B up.jpg Size: 45 KB
Eish! If you don't fly with the eagles you'll scratch with the turkeys
  • #1,564
  • Jun 5, 2007 3:43am Jun 5, 2007 3:43am
Africanpip, that's quite a nicely made chart

I'm also wondering currently where this move up is gonna end up, but I only use supersimplified projections..we've got .618 and FE 100 confluence here, but if we can get past it, I don't see why we couldn't make another snatch at 2.xx
Attached Image
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #1,565
  • Jun 5, 2007 4:19am Jun 5, 2007 4:19am
Quoting SeekingLight
Africanpip, that's quite a nicely made chart

I'm also wondering currently where this move up is gonna end up, but I only use supersimplified projections..we've got .618 and FE 100 confluence here, but if we can get past it, I don't see why we couldn't make another snatch at 2.xx
Thanks....


I agree, if we can brake through 9956 then 2 is certainly back on the cards. But I think 61.8% now looks like the end of wave 3. with wave 4 down to 9885 area. and then wave 5 pushing up to 2.0030 for end of larger B, before the big drop down.

That is what it looks like now, things may change but I don't think we will see new highs again, any time soon. (famous last words)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: B up.jpg Size: 46 KB
Eish! If you don't fly with the eagles you'll scratch with the turkeys
  • #1,566
  • Jun 5, 2007 8:08am Jun 5, 2007 8:08am
If that's the end of wave B, don't you think the 3-wave correction last two long comparing to the 5-wave impulse earlier?

Seekinglight's and your previous counting seems to be more likely to me.... the correction abc-x-abc is over and now we seem to be at the another impulse wave pattern.

regards

Quoting africanpip
Thanks....


I agree, if we can brake through 9956 then 2 is certainly back on the cards. But I think 61.8% now looks like the end of wave 3. with wave 4 down to 9885 area. and then wave 5 pushing up to 2.0030 for end of larger B, before the big drop down.

That is what it looks like now, things may change but I don't think we will see new highs again, any time soon. (famous last words)
Target: Trading naked.
  • #1,567
  • Jun 5, 2007 8:30am Jun 5, 2007 8:30am
Quoting aha
If that's the end of wave B, don't you think the 3-wave correction last two long comparing to the 5-wave impulse earlier?

Seekinglight's and your previous counting seems to be more likely to me.... the correction abc-x-abc is over and now we seem to be at the another impulse wave pattern.

regards

I am not sure what you mean here "...last two long comparing....." I felt that this 3rd wave of greater B was not showing very strong signs coupled with fundamentals not showing a strong enough sign to push up the 78.2%. I took profit at 61.8% as per my last post. I think we should get some turbulence around this area until a wave 4 down to around 9890 area then either a truncated 5th or a 5th up to around 2.0030. to complete the larger B wave, then a big 5 wave C down.

I agree the abc-x-abc is over and we are in a 5 wave impulse of one larger degree B. I am always weary of the 61.8% - 78.2% area especially at such high levels. If my wave count continues to be correct and I see good signs for a strong 5th I will take it otherwise I will wait for the big ride down on the corrective C.

Regards
Eish! If you don't fly with the eagles you'll scratch with the turkeys
  • #1,568
  • Jun 5, 2007 10:46am Jun 5, 2007 10:46am
My bad, it should be "too long", I will post a chart to use what I meant in just a minute.



Quoting africanpip
I am not sure what you mean here "...last two long comparing....." I felt that this 3rd wave of greater B was not showing very strong signs coupled with fundamentals not showing a strong enough sign to push up the 78.2%. I took profit at 61.8% as per my last post. I think we should get some turbulence around this area until a wave 4 down to around 9890 area then either a truncated 5th or a 5th up to around 2.0030. to complete the larger B wave, then a big 5 wave C down.

I agree the abc-x-abc is over and we are in a 5 wave impulse of one larger degree B. I am always weary of the 61.8% - 78.2% area especially at such high levels. If my wave count continues to be correct and I see good signs for a strong 5th I will take it otherwise I will wait for the big ride down on the corrective C.

Regards
Target: Trading naked.
  • #1,569
  • Jun 5, 2007 10:52am Jun 5, 2007 10:52am
Quoting aha
My bad, it should be "too long", I will post a chart to use what I meant in just a minute.
Well, imo time factor is fine for forex, but it's not that important compared to stock market. 70-80% of time prices are in corrections (corrective waves) in forex, I heard about it before.
Tra-X
  • #1,570
  • Jun 5, 2007 11:05am Jun 5, 2007 11:05am
I read from the refined EW principles that statistically speaking the time span of each wave in a 5 wave pattern have certain relationship, which may be used to identify the end of a wave with some accuracy. For example, it is said that in most of the time the wave 2 in a 5-wave pattern lasts less time than wave 1, and among these patterns, most of time ratio W2/W1 is between 15%-60%. I don't know how accurate this information is, just curious if you guys take that into consideration at all when counting waves.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable ew.jpg Size: 42 KB
Target: Trading naked.
  • #1,571
  • Jun 5, 2007 11:06am Jun 5, 2007 11:06am
Thanks.

Quoting Traex
Well, imo time factor is fine for forex, but it's not that important compared to stock market. 70-80% of time prices are in corrections (corrective waves) in forex, I heard about it before.
Target: Trading naked.
  • #1,572
  • Jun 5, 2007 11:34am Jun 5, 2007 11:34am
Quoting aha
I read from the refined EW principles that statistically speaking the time span of each wave in a 5 wave pattern have certain relationship, which may be used to identify the end of a wave with some accuracy. For example, it is said that in most of the time the wave 2 in a 5-wave pattern lasts less time than wave 1, and among these patterns, most of time ratio W2/W1 is between 15%-60%. I don't know how accurate this information is, just curious if you guys take that into consideration at all when counting waves.

Hey aha,

I would love to get the time thing sorted out, it is almost like the missing piece of a jigsaw puzzle. just doing the wave count is consuming and confusing enough as it is.

MT4 has a fib time tool that you can play around with, actually I might look at it as well.

Let us know if you master the time thing.
Eish! If you don't fly with the eagles you'll scratch with the turkeys
  • #1,573
  • Jun 5, 2007 11:57am Jun 5, 2007 11:57am
Traex is probably right about the timing thing works better for stock market... I checked again and found that the timing statistic I mentioned was from stock and bond market, to get the statistics from forex we may have to pay for it.
Target: Trading naked.
  • #1,574
  • Jun 6, 2007 3:08am Jun 6, 2007 3:08am
Hi Guys...just found this great thread and Iīm interested to see the comments on timing.

10 years ago I bought Robert Minerīs excellent course (mainly EW, Fibonacci and cycles) and software. This has a very useful timing tool that allows you to compare any prior move with the current one and project fibo time ratios for it. This worked very well in the Futures Markets and with the Indices, but not so well with Forex.

A year ago I spent 6 months trying to get Earic Beanīs esoteric and very comprehensive software to give useful time predictions - and failed!

Iīve concluded that when trading the European pairs (Iīve not looked at the Yen), more than 90% of the time the Asian session contributes nothing to the overall move and this screws up the use of timing tools on the lower TFs - 4hour and less.

I am finding some help from using the Fibo and Lucas numbers on the shorter TFs during the European and US sessions - probably īcause there are sufficient bars to bring the sequences into play.

Iīll be happy to work with anyone on the timing side - from what I can see the price side is well catered for!
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #1,575
  • Jun 6, 2007 5:02am Jun 6, 2007 5:02am
Quoting Islander
Hi Guys...just found this great thread and Iīm interested to see the comments on timing.

10 years ago I bought Robert Minerīs excellent course (mainly EW, Fibonacci and cycles) and software. This has a very useful timing tool that allows you to compare any prior move with the current one and project fibo time ratios for it. This worked very well in the Futures Markets and with the Indices, but not so well with Forex.

A year ago I spent 6 months trying to get Earic Beanīs esoteric and very comprehensive software to give useful time predictions - and failed!

Iīve concluded that when trading the European pairs (Iīve not looked at the Yen), more than 90% of the time the Asian session contributes nothing to the overall move and this screws up the use of timing tools on the lower TFs - 4hour and less.

I am finding some help from using the Fibo and Lucas numbers on the shorter TFs during the European and US sessions - probably īcause there are sufficient bars to bring the sequences into play.

Iīll be happy to work with anyone on the timing side - from what I can see the price side is well catered for!

Hi Islander, good luck with the timing thing. I see in the book: EW Principle,
there is a bit on time sequences. Elliott himself believed that time sequences conformed to fib patterns. The problem I find is that in some examples months are quoted and others years now 13 is a fib number but 13 months and 13 years are quite different. (13 x 12 = 156 which is not a fib number so that can't be used) The same applies for hours and days.

Walter E White and Benner also did some work on time frames but it appears they were all done in years (for time frames), which doesn't help me in FX at all.

As Traex said earlier I think it would apply to stock markets better. because of the longer cycles.

Good luck.
Eish! If you don't fly with the eagles you'll scratch with the turkeys
  • #1,576
  • Jun 6, 2007 6:06am Jun 6, 2007 6:06am
hii guyz Im new to this forum

I just went short 1.9922 expecting untill 1.9890

what do you think of this??

Can help me where i need to stop my loss just in case. If so, should i cut switch??or wait till it reaches certain point that gives a sign of another hike, and at what point it would be??
  • #1,577
  • Jun 6, 2007 2:39pm Jun 6, 2007 2:39pm
Today went as expected, we don't have much room for wave 4 to go down, as it can't enter the price territory of wave 1, so if it is to follow the 5 wave impulse we should see a drop to about 99 or just below before making a push up for wave 5 to past 2 and slightly beyond.

If we get a significant move down, well into the price territory of wave 1, then it obviously nullifies the wave count and another scenario developes. Thus far however the wave count and action has been reasonably accurate, I expect to see wave 5 start around 9985/9900 and push up to 2, not really sure how far it will go but at least to the 78.2% fib level around 2.0030.

This will also be line with the average trading range for this pair, although lately it as not been performing "normally" but this typical wave B behaviour.

Another scenario is that wave 3 could continue up to 78.2% fib mark before the wave 4 starts, but that we will see as it unfolds. either way it should end up at 78.2% and we will adjust counts accordingly.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: B up.jpg Size: 45 KB
Eish! If you don't fly with the eagles you'll scratch with the turkeys
  • #1,578
  • Edited 9:12am Jun 7, 2007 9:08am | Edited 9:12am
I am just courious as to what happened. Your chart showed a target on wave 3 higher but overnight, it would appear, a new wave 4 developed. Was this premature or only visible to the trained eye?
  • #1,579
  • Jun 7, 2007 9:11am Jun 7, 2007 9:11am
[quote=mr_xeno;1459544]hii guyz Im new to this forum

I just went short 1.9922 expecting untill 1.9890

what do you think of this??

That was most excellent. But, how did you know to go short? What was your thinking and analysis on your decision?
  • #1,580
  • Jun 7, 2007 9:21am Jun 7, 2007 9:21am
Hi africanpip,

Why do you expect wave B do be a 5-wave? So far, in all the books and analysis I saw, wave B is a corrective wave, and thus, develop as a 3-wave structure.

But than again, I am just a beginner.

branac
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