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DAX Futures December 2023

  • #101
  • Sep 13, 2023 12:45pm Sep 13, 2023 12:45pm
Greetings all and especially to the master of self-discipline, Brixen.

I feel the need to share this with you because I am hoping it might help somebody and any conversation might stimulate my own thoughts.

I started trading the DAX in early 2011. Early last year I stopped trading because of having care for a dying mother. Coming back to the markets recently, I have noticed how things have changed. In particular I have noticed how more rigid the price action has become, and it is not unique to our beloved DAX.

In the US markets trades are now more than 65% automated. With my screenshots below I show what I think in that Europe is catching up.

If I am right, how can we protect ourselves better and also take advantage?

The first screenshot is of the FTSE CFD action today. The first peak was at 9am CET.

The second screenshot is of the DAX CFD. The high of the day was at 9.30am CET.

My chart is quite simple to illustrate the mechanized nature of today's action by way of the horizontal lines having been generated at midnight last night. Yes, 8 hours before serious trading started. The very left of the charts start at midnight. (I prefer leading indicators; call me crazy.) Not all days are like this, but it is becoming increasingly common.

Is anybody else seeing and sensing the changes that I am? Brixen, your experience says?

Maverick
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: FTSE CFD respects 13Sept2023 cropped.jpg Size: 51 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: FTSE CFD respects 13Sept2023 DAX follows suit cropped.jpg Size: 54 KB
RULE 1: Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #102
  • Sep 13, 2023 2:41pm Sep 13, 2023 2:41pm
Quoting MaverickV71
Greetings all and especially to the master of self-discipline, Brixen. I feel the need to share this with you because I am hoping it might help somebody and any conversation might stimulate my own thoughts. I started trading the DAX in early 2011. Early last year I stopped trading because of having care for a dying mother. Coming back to the markets recently, I have noticed how things have changed. In particular I have noticed how more rigid the price action has become, and it is not unique to our beloved DAX. In the US markets trades are now more...
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1st of all thanks for your kind words. Regarding your trading thoughts:

1. I have always underlined the powerful and directional force of DAX CASH INDEX (9-17:35CET).
It is the king, it gives the direction, it can potentially change every trend of last hours or accelerate that trend for German main Index.
Every serious move will start during the official DAX CASH INDEX hours or in some cases every overnight significant move must be confirmed and validated by the King.

2. Midnight (CET time) is the official hour when Globex, CME and so on start their day with major futures and Indices CFD start their bid/ask prices.
Lets say they give the 1st direction, trend of the different worlwide markets. Sometimes or often these prices are well directed following the wishes of BigHands.

3. EUREX European futures starts officially just after 2CET, but volumes are ridiculous and trend follow what I wrote at point 2.

4. Sophisticated trading Softwares, Big Algos (or whatever AI system BigHands have built and continuously update) dictate the market moves and they running financial markets 24 hours a day. No way!

5. Probably their settimgs are so sensible in some market phase, that even a single word of whatever US FED member, or EU bureaucrat, or big worldwide politician says, can move for dozens, sometimes hundreds point at the speed of sound.
Very difficult to trade in some high volatility market phases and this increase the high risk to remain trapped in some unexpected market move.
I'm sure that some big AI trading softwares have detailed settings ready to hit most of the traders, most of the postions in place, searching for stops and liquidity, searching for extreme fear and greed condition, specially after long boring market phase or on typical strange hours (lunch time, closing hours and so on).

In conclusion I have no crystal ball and I have not all answers to your questions, but I agree with you that trading is evolving and will become more difficult for we humans, cause nobody want give you his money, specially who has and moves big capitals, and know the natural weak traders point.

Good luck to you, to me and to all friends here.
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #103
  • Sep 13, 2023 2:46pm Sep 13, 2023 2:46pm
Quoting Brixen
{quote} ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1st of all thanks for your kind words. Regarding your trading thoughts: 1. I have always underlined the powerful and directional force of DAX CASH INDEX (9-17:35CET). It is the king, it gives the direction, it can potentially change every trend of last hours or accelerate that trend for German main Index. Every serious move will start during the official DAX...

great insight like always Good seeing you Brixen Sir great.
What are your thoughts on ECB tomorrow
  • #104
  • Sep 13, 2023 2:51pm Sep 13, 2023 2:51pm
Quoting Pixie666
{quote} great insight like always Good seeing you Brixen Sir great. What are your thoughts on ECB tomorrow
WOW!! PIXIE is back

I always remeber your post in full night, when Italy won the EUROPEAN CUP in London vs ENGLAND, 2 summers ago!!!

Tomorrow ECB will usually start the usual sell off, not sure if before or after the Lagarde press conference.
But after that, US and rollover will help the recover......as usual!!!
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #105
  • Sep 13, 2023 4:50pm Sep 13, 2023 4:50pm
Quoting Brixen
{quote} WOW!! PIXIE is back I always remeber your post in full night, when Italy won the EUROPEAN CUP in London vs ENGLAND, 2 summers ago!!! Tomorrow ECB will usually start the usual sell off, not sure if before or after the Lagarde press conference. But after that, US and rollover will help the recover......as usual!!!
Oh yes European cup Glad you remember me that post was when me and my mommy were watching the game! Apparently she is huge fan me not soo much.

As usual ECB moves to be expected then!
yes I’m back had to finish my studies so I will be trading full time now. Glad you doing well
green pips
waiting for tomorrow fireworks I didn’t open a single trade today so trying to catch up with news/moves so lining myself up
  • #106
  • Sep 14, 2023 12:37am Sep 14, 2023 12:37am
Quoting Brixen
Probably I did my day, as I have to go:+8,5+33+5+5+10+14+7+9+5,5=TOTAL +97 pips FDXM. I keep holding 1 DAX CFD long 15568 target above 15700 zone. Tomorrow ECB in sight + US data + rollover last day.
15713 right now: closed my last DAX CFD bought yd at 15568 for +145 p DAX CFD=+29 pips FDXM

FLAT, happy flat!

I have many things to do this morning, so not much time to follow this crazy circus......

DAX CASH INDEX made an high at 15726 yd and we'll see later if they want wait ECB on the upper side of yd range or not.......
Rollover is heavily on going, specially in US, specially on European Eurostoxx and main FDAX, Most Brokers are automatically closing current expiration these hours.
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #107
  • Sep 14, 2023 12:40am Sep 14, 2023 12:40am
Quoting Pixie666
{quote} Oh yes European cup Glad you remember me that post was when me and my mommy were watching the game! Apparently she is huge fan me not soo much. As usual ECB moves to be expected then! yes I’m back had to finish my studies so I will be trading full time now. Glad you doing well green pips waiting for tomorrow fireworks I didn’t open a single trade today so trying to catch up with news/moves so lining myself up
Well well well, so congratulations for your studies
and good luck for your full time trading!

We are always here on the trenches, facing these ups and downs.......
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #108
  • Sep 14, 2023 12:44am Sep 14, 2023 12:44am
Exactly same chart posted yd for DAX CASH INDEX......
Will they break up red resistance lines into ECB?.....or prices will be rejected for another time? We'll see....
I have to go, I'm very busy this morning with my family...good luck to all friends here! see you hoepfully later on the afternoon!

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: #Germany40M30.png Size: 19 KB
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #109
  • Sep 14, 2023 1:12am Sep 14, 2023 1:12am
Hi there Mr Brixen and everyone else!

Thank you sincerely for creating another journal of yours. It personally helps me a lot since I joined "Dax family".

A silly question, what do you think: will we retest 16k this month or rather ~~15,400?

Cheers and wish you all best of luck guys!
"There is only one success: to be able to spend your life in your own way."
  • #110
  • Sep 14, 2023 3:29am Sep 14, 2023 3:29am
587 alert receveid and just bought 1 DAX CFD, few additionals below till 55../53..
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #111
  • Sep 14, 2023 3:33am Sep 14, 2023 3:33am
Quoting Brixen
{quote} WOW!! PIXIE is back I always remeber your post in full night, when Italy won the EUROPEAN CUP in London vs ENGLAND, 2 summers ago!!! Tomorrow ECB will usually start the usual sell off, not sure if before or after the Lagarde press conference. But after that, US and rollover will help the recover......as usual!!!
And yes, sell off already started as probably most see ECB focusing too much on inflation and they dont. even noticed some countries already entered. in recession phase


I cant post/trad regularly, i wll back when I can
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #112
  • Sep 14, 2023 3:49am Sep 14, 2023 3:49am
Quoting Brixen
{quote} Well well well, so congratulations for your studies and good luck for your full time trading! We are always here on the trenches, facing these ups and downs.......
Thank you

Yes the action seems to be beginning for the ECB
i just got online watching preparing for the upcoming shots

Green pips to all friends
  • #113
  • Sep 14, 2023 3:51am Sep 14, 2023 3:51am
Quoting Brixen
{quote} And yes, sell off already started as probably most see ECB focusing too much on inflation and they dont. even noticed some countries already entered. in recession phase I cant post/trad regularly, i wll back when I can
Sure Brixen do what you do best
  • #114
  • Sep 14, 2023 5:40am Sep 14, 2023 5:40am
Quoting Brixen
587 alert receveid and just bought 1 DAX CFD, few additionals below till 55../53..
676 right now : I prefer to close my 587 position before ECB statement and remain flat, taking into account also that I'm not at home, but on the road.

So +89 p DAX CFD=+18 pips FDXM
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #115
  • Sep 14, 2023 5:44am Sep 14, 2023 5:44am
Quoting Zannuck
Hi there Mr Brixen and everyone else! Thank you sincerely for creating another journal of yours. It personally helps me a lot since I joined "Dax family". A silly question, what do you think: will we retest 16k this month or rather ~~15,400? Cheers and wish you all best of luck guys!
I dont know, nobody knows. It depends on various factors as recession magnitude or not, ECB stance, energy prices during next winter, stagflation on going, political election in Europe next year and so on.....

Then I have a very short term horizon on my trading, but obviously I have to take into account potential scenarios in big picture.

Lets say that I'm always, often open to different scenarios every day, every market phase.
I guess this is better way to face the expected and unexpected market phases.
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #116
  • Sep 14, 2023 5:48am Sep 14, 2023 5:48am
Quoting Brixen
{quote} I dont know, nobody knows. It depends on various factors as recession magnitude or not, ECB stance, energy prices during next winter, stagflation on going, political election in Europe next year and so on..... Then I have a very short term horizon on my trading, but obviously I have to take into account potential scenarios in big picture. Lets say that I'm always, often open to different scenarios every day, every market phase. I guess this is better way to face the expected and unexpected market phases.
Yeah, im aware that noone of us - mortals knows the future. Was just curious about your insight.
Thanks for your response anyway and wish You a good day!
"There is only one success: to be able to spend your life in your own way."
  • #117
  • Sep 14, 2023 6:07am Sep 14, 2023 6:07am
I'm long at 663 looking to sell an hour after US session opens.
  • #118
  • Sep 14, 2023 6:39am Sep 14, 2023 6:39am
Quoting Shaggalo
I'm long at 663 looking to sell an hour after US session opens.
I dont think ECB members are so crazy to focus totally on inflation in this euro recession probably scenario and so they will do a rate hike next 45 min in the official statement, buy you never know here.....

A couple decades ago on July 2008, Messieur Trichet, ECB chief that time, surprisingly made a rate hike of half point during that summer.

Do you know what happen to European Indices and to the DAX? -1000 PTS down in a very cruel summer, in less than month. Then started Greece mess and o son....
And that time DAX was at 9000 and went down to 8000.......


So in short I see a possible decent recover if they remain at same rates, otherwise I prepare my buy orders well well below yd lows.
I call upon my father's spirit , watching over me
  • #119
  • Sep 14, 2023 8:11am Sep 14, 2023 8:11am
Well that went a bit better than expected. I'm gonna take profits a bit earlier.
Sometimes I get it right.

Closed 3 DAX @ 761
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 112.png Size: 6 KB


Thanks again for the inspiration Brixen.
  • #120
  • Sep 14, 2023 8:17am Sep 14, 2023 8:17am
Quoting Brixen
{quote} I dont know, nobody knows. It depends on various factors as recession magnitude or not, ECB stance, energy prices during next winter, stagflation on going, political election in Europe next year and so on..... Then I have a very short term horizon on my trading, but obviously I have to take into account potential scenarios in big picture. Lets say that I'm always, often open to different scenarios every day, every market phase. I guess this is better way to face the expected and unexpected market phases.
True that, keep everything in focus still eyes on short term horizon has worked best for me too in trading soo far
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