Morning Briefing

13 Sep 23. 0852 IST or 0322 GMT or 2322 EST

Good Morning!

Dollar index holds above 104.50 and could test 105+ levels taking USDJPY higher towards 148 or higher and dragging down Euro below 1.0770 to target 1.07 now. Aussie and Pound have turned down again to target 0.6350 and 1.2450-1.24 respectively. EURJPY could be ranged within 159-156 while USDCNY could rise above support at 7.25. USDRUB has recovered its fall and trades above 96 just now. A rise to 98/99 cannot be negated in the near term. EURINR trades above 89 and could move up slowly towards 89.50 or higher. USDINR can trade within 83.10-82.80/70 and needs a clear breakout on either side for further direction clarity. On the charts upside scope is visible till 83.30.

The US Treasury yields remain stable and higher. Looks like the market is waiting to see the US CPI data release today. Broadly the picture is bullish, and the yields can rise more. The German yields sustain higher and are keeping intact our bullish view. Further rise is possible from here. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have dipped but supports can limit the downside. View is bullish and there is room to rise further.

Dow Jones seems to lack a strong follow-through buying. DAX is stuck within its 15500-16100 range. Nifty has come down after opening with a wide gap-up but the support at 19900-19850 region is likely to limit the downside. Nikkei has risen back but could face rejections from 33000. Shanghai is bearish while it remains below the resistance at 3150.

Brent and WTI have risen well and looks bullish to target $95 and $90 respectively in the near term. Gold has broken below the lower end of the 1940-1960 range and is likely to fall further from here. Silver remains stuck within 23-23.50 range. Copper has fallen back, failing to break above 3.80. Natural gas has risen sharply above 2.70 and has room to move up further towards 3.0. The outcome of US CPI data today would be crucial to watch as it could bring in volatility in the market.

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14 Sep 23. 0856 IST or 0326 GMT or 2326 EST

Good Morning!

US CPI data for Aug-23 inched up at 3.71% (Headline CPI, Y/Y%) from 3.30% seen for July-23. But no major movement is seen on the Dollar index which has scope to rise above 105 in the near term. Euro also has scope to fall below 107 while below 1.08. USDJPY and EURJPY can trade within 146-148 and 159-156 respectively. Aussie and Pound can trade within 0.6350-0.65 and 1.24-1.26 region. USDCNY could rise to 7.30 above support at 7.2630. USDRUB is fluctuating highly within 92.50-98 amongst the war situation where news of fresh attacks from Ukraine to Russia hit the news headlines. EURINR trades above 89 and could move up slowly towards 89.50 or higher. USDINR can rise to 83.10 while above 82.80. Also watch ECB Policy statement today to see if the central bank talks of continued rate hikes or pause as hinted in July-23.

The US Treasury yields have come down sharply after the inflation data release. The US Headline CPI rose to 3.71% (from 3.3%) in August while the Core CPI came down to 4.39% (from 4.7%). Supports are there to limit the downside in the yields and keep the broader uptrend intact. The German yields remain stable. Outlook remains bullish to see more rise. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have come down sharply. But supports can limit the downside and take them higher again. Overall outlook is bullish.

Dow Jones struggles to gain momentum and looks vulnerable for a fall towards its support again. DAX is coming down towards the lower end of its 15500-16100 range. Nifty has risen well above 20000 and remains bullish to target its key resistance in the near term. Nikkei is currently testing its resistance at 33000. Need to see if it holds or breaks higher. Shanghai is bearish while below the resistance at 3150.

Brent and WTI remains bullish to see a test of $95 and $92 respectively before a fall back can be seen from there. Gold has scope to test immediate support at 1920 before a bounce back can happen. Silver has come down towards its lower end of the range. Natural gas is hovering below the interim resistance at 2.80. But bias is positive to see a break above 2.8 while above the support at 2.5.

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15 Sep 23. 0900 IST or 0330 GMT or 2330 EST

Good Morning!

Euro plunged after the ECB raised rates by 25bps and have hinted at a possible pause in further rate hikes while reducing their growth projections for 2023-2024. Euro can test 1.06, taking Dollar Index towards 106 while Aussie and Pound have scope to reverse from 0.65 and 1.24 respectively. USDJPY can rise to 148 while EURJPY can bounce back from 156. USDCNY can test 7.22/20 while below 7.27. USDRUB can rise to upper end of 92.50-98 range but if it would break higher would be interesting to see. EURINR trades above 88 and could remain within 88-89.50 for the near term. USDINR can trade within 83.10-82.90/80 for now but can eventually move up to 83.25/30 next week.

The US Treasury yields have bounced back well again. Looks like the expected dip to test the support may/may not happen. However, the big picture remains bullish to see more rise going forward. The German yields have declined sharply after the ECB meeting outcome yesterday. Supports can limit the downside and keep the overall uptrend intact in the yields. The ECB raised the rates by 25 bps but indicated that the rate hike cycle has reached a peak for now. So, the ECB may pause for some time going forward. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have declined sharply below their intermediate supports contrary to our expectation. A crucial support is there which should hold to keep our bullish view intact. The price action today will be very important.

Dow Jones and Nikkei have risen sharply above the resistance at 34700 and 33000 respectively and looks bullish to move up further from here. DAX has started to rise within the 15500-16100 range. Nifty is heading up towards 20200-20400 in line with our expectations. Shanghai appears range bound within 3100-3150.

Brent and WTI is on their way to test key resistance at $95 and $92 respectively. Gold and Silver fell to 1921.70 and 22.56 yesterday after the ECB raised the interest rate by 25bps and signals that this could be the end of rate hike cycle. However, the support at 1920 (Gold) and 22.50 (Silver) have held well and produce a bounce back from there. Copper has scope to test its immediate resistance at 3.86-3.90. Natural gas is facing rejections from 2.80 but outlook will remain bullish while above the support at 2.5.

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18 Sep 23. 0850 IST or 0320 GMT or 2320 EST

Good Morning!

Dollar Index has dipped from 105.50 but has scope to test 106 while above 104. Similarly, Euro could test 1.06 while below 1.08. Aussie and Pound looks bearish towards 0.64 and 1.2350. USDJPY can rise to 148-149 while EURJPY can bounce back from 156.60. USDCNY can test 7.30/35 while above 7.25. USDRUB can trade within 94-98 range. EURINR trades above 88.30 and could remain within 88-89.50 for the near term. USDINR can face rejection from 83.20/25 and fall back to 83.00-82.90

The US Treasury yields have risen further and are looking bullish to see more rise from here. The US Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday is a very important event to watch this week. The outcome of this meeting can set the trend for the market going forward. The German yields have surged. Outlook is bullish and there is more room to rise. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have risen sharply. The supports have held well and that keeps the broader uptrend intact.

Dow Jones has fallen back sharply last Friday but is likely to get support at 34400 and 34200. DAX is moving up towards the upper end of its 15500-16100 range. Nifty remains bullish for a test 20300-20400 in the near term. Shanghai is bearish while below the resistance at 3150.

Brent and WTI remains bullish for a test of key resistance at $95 and $92 respectively. Gold and Silver outlook is bullish while above the support at 1920 (Gold) and 22.50 (Silver), respectively. Copper is to be range bound within 3.86-3.75 for a while. Natural gas has scope to test the support at 2.51-2.50 before a bounce back can happen.

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20 Sep 23. 0855 IST or 0325 GMT or 2325 EST

Good Morning!

FED policy meeting is important today where markets do not expect a rate hike but is keen to see the quarterly updates on inflation, interest rates, growth and employment figures. Dollar Index could trade within the broad 104.50-105.50/106 region while Euro can bounce from 1.0650/1.06 to rise towards 1.0750. Aussie and Pound look stable and could trade within the 0.64-0.65 and 1.23-1.24 region for the near term. USDJPY can rise to 148-149 while EURJPY can rise while above 157. USDCNY can test 7.30/35. USDRUB can trade within 95-99 range. EURINR trades above 88.50 and could remain within 88/88.50-89.50 for the near term. USDINR can face rejection from 83.30 and fall back to 83.10-83.00. Failure to fall from 83.30 could trigger further rally towards 83.50 but that looks less likely for the day.

The US Treasury yields remain higher and have room to rise further. The US Federal Reserve meeting outcome is due tonight which can determine whether the current upmove can continue or will run into a correction before the broader uptrend resumes. The German yields continue to surge and are keeping our bullish view intact. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI has come down failing to break their intermediate resistance. But support is there to limit the downside and keep intact the broader bullish outlook.

Dow Jones and Nikkei have to hold above their support at 34300-34200 and 33000, respectively to avoid the danger of falling further. DAX retains its 15500-16100 range and is coming down with it. Nifty has come down but can get support at 20000. Shanghai remains ranged within 3150-3100.

Brent and WTI tested the resistance as expected and have come down. Crude outlook is bearish for the near term. Gold, Silver and Copper are trading lower and may test their immediate support. Natural gas will remain bullish as long as it holds above 2.60-2.50. The FOMC meeting tonight would be crucial to watch as it could set the tone of the market.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

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21 Sep 23. 0852 IST or 0322 GMT or 2322 EST

Good Morning!

FED kept rates unchanged at 5.5% as per market expectations but has signaled one more rate hike this year. Dollar Index is headed towards 106 while Euro is headed to test 1.06. Both levels on the Dollar Index and Euro are crucial and needs a reversal soon. Aussie and Pound look bearish and could show strong downside momentum on a break below 0.64 and 1.23 respectively. Else a bounce if seen from these levels could give some stability for a few sessions. EURJPY and USDJPY have supports near 157 and 148 which need to hold to produce a bounce else can trigger a sharp fall going forward. USDCNY can test 7.30/35 while USDRUB can trade within 94-98 range. EURINR can test support at 88 from where a bounce is expected. USDINR can rise back to 83.20/30 while support near 82.90-83.00 holds well.

The US Treasury yields have surged especially at the near end after the US Fed meeting last night. The yields are likely to see an extended rise from here before the expected correction sets in. The Fed left the rates unchanged at 5.25-5.5 per cent and also kept the median fund rate forecast at 5.6% for this year. This means one more rate hike is possible for the rest of the year. However, for 2024, the Fed has left room only for a 50-bps rate cut, down from the 100-bps cut projected in its earlier forecast in June indicating that the rates can remain higher for long time. The German yields have dipped but can bounce back and keep the broader uptrend intact. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI can oscillate inside a range for some time before resuming their upmove.

Dow Jones has come down sharply and can revisit the 34300-34200 support zone. Nikkei and Nifty have declined, breaking below their support at 33000 and 20000 and have scope to come down further in the near term. DAX remains well inside the 15500-16100. Shanghai has broken below the lower end of the 3100-3150 range and has room to come down more from here.

Brent and WTI continues to dip and are likely to remain bearish for the near term. Gold and Silver tested their resistance zone yesterday and has fallen back sharply from there on Fed hawkish tone in its monetary policy meeting. Fed expects one more rate hike in 2023. Copper has scope to test immediate support at 3.70 before a bounce back can happen. Natural gas downside seems limited to 2.6/2.5.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

22 Sep 23. 0855 IST or 0325 GMT or 2325 EST

Good Morning!

Most currency pairs trade near crucial supports/resistances and a breach or hold of these levels are important to watch for the near term to decide on further direction from here. Dollar Index is holding below crucial resistance at 106 while Euro is trading above support near 1.06-1.0650 but there needs clarity on whether the respective levels would continue to hold or breach in the coming weeks. EURJPY has support at 157 while USDJPY has support near 147/146. USDCNY must break above 7.30 to rise further towards 7.35/38 in the medium term. Aussie is holding above 0.6390 and can trade within 0.6390-0.65 while Pound has fallen below 1.23 after the BOE kept rates unchanged. A fall to 1.22 looks possible now. USDRUB can trade within 94-98 range. EURINR can test support at 88 from where a bounce is expected. Else can open lower targets of 87.50-87.00. USDINR closed near 83.09 yesterday but on news of inclusion of Indian Government bonds in the JP Morgan GBI-Em index, Rupee has appreciated in the NDF markets (currently quoting 82.7330). The pair may open with a gap down on the OTC markets but it has to be seen if the fall in would sustain in the medium term.

The US Treasury yields have surged further and are coming closer to our expected levels much faster. There is a possibility of seeing a correction after some more rise from current levels. So, wait and watch. The German yields have bounced back after a short dip. The outlook remains bullish, and the yields can rise more. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI remain volatile within their current range.

Dow Jones and Nifty looks bearish. DAX has declined sharply towards the lower end of the 15500-16100 range. We need to see if it bounces back from 15500 or breaks lower. Nikkei has bounced back from its intra day low and may rise towards 33000. Shanghai has rebounded but has to overcome its immediate hurdle at 3115-3125 to reduce the downside pressure.

Brent and WTI have rebounded but need to rise past $95 and $92 respectively to negate the danger of falling again. Gold is likely to trade within 1965-1920 for some time. Silver looks bullish while above the support at 23. Copper has to sustain above 3.65 to avoid the danger of falling deeper from here. Natural gas is likely to remain above the support at 2.6/2.5.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

25 Sep 23. 0851 IST or 0321 GMT or 2321 EST

Good Morning!

Most currencies are trading within a safe range; a break on either side would bring in more directional clarity. Dollar Index, Euro, EURJPY and USDJPY trade within 105-106, 1.06-1.07, 157-158 and 147-149 range respectively which could continue for a few more sessions unless a break on either side is seen. USDCNY can head higher towards 7.35 while above 7.28. Aussie is ranged within 0.6390-0.65 while Pound looks bearish towards 1.22. USDRUB may trade within 93.90-96.00. EURINR may trade above 88 while USDINR could continue moving higher while above 82.80.

The US Treasury yields have come-off on Friday. With limited room on the upside, we can expect a corrective fall going forward within the broader uptrend. The German yields have room to rise more within their current uptrend. Intermediate corrections are possible. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have risen back sharply from their range support. The range is intact, and the bias is bullish to see an upside breakout of their range.

Dow Jones and Nifty remains bearish for a test of their immediate support. DAX is back into its 15500-16100 range. Nikkei and Shanghai looks bullish while above the support at 32500 and 3100.

Brent appears ranged within $95-92. WTI is inching up gradually towards $92. Gold may trade within 1960-1935 (narrow) and 1965-1920 (Broad) range for some time. Silver looks bullish for the near term. Copper has to sustain above 3.6650-3.65 to avoid the danger of falling further. Natural gas has risen sharply above 2.80 and has scope to rise further towards 3.0.

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25 Sep 23. 0851 IST or 0321 GMT or 2321 EST

Good Morning!

Dollar Index breaks above the resistance at 106 and drags down Euro below 1.06. It is to be seen if the break sustains as it could bring in fresh targets of 107 and 1.05 for the Dollar index and Euro respectively. EURJPY remains ranged while USDJPY can move up towards 149-150. USDCNY and USDRUB can head higher towards 7.35 and 96-98 respectively. Aussie is ranged within 0.6390-0.65 while Pound looks bearish towards 1.21 as it has broken below 1.22. EURINR may test 87.50-87 if it trades below 88 in the near term. USDINR could continue moving higher towards 83.30.

The US Treasury yields have risen back sharply. Looks like an extended rise can happen before the expected correction comes into play. The German yields have risen sharply and are coming closer to our targets. The price action in the coming days will need close watch to see for a reversal anytime. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are back into their range and can move up within it. We retain our bullish bias for the yields to break the range on the upside and rise eventually.

Dow Jones has risen back and if sustains, can rise towards 34250-34300. Nifty may test its immediate support at 19500 before a bounce back can happen. DAX has declined below 15500 and looks vulnerable to fall further from here. Nikkei and Shanghai have fallen back but needs to sustain above 32200 and 3100 to avoid coming down further.

Commodities have declined and looks bearish for the near term. Brent and WTI have declined below $92 and $90 respectively and have room to come down further from here. Gold, Silver and Copper have scope to fall towards their immediate support. Natural gas has come down a bit but needs to sustain above 2.85 to avoid the danger of falling further.

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27 Sep 23. 0849 IST or 0319 GMT or 2319 EST

Good Morning!

News stated that Neel Kashkari, a Federal Reserve policymaker, opined that the robust U.S. economy warranted another interest rate hike, holding it “higher for longer” to bring inflation back to the 2% mark. This aided the rise in the Dollar Index which can continue to rise towards 107-108. Euro, Pound, Aussie, EURJPY all look bearish for a fall towards 1.05, 1.21/22, 0.63 and 156 respectively. USDJPY can move up towards 149-150. USDCNY can rise slowly towards 7.35 while USDRUB can remain ranged within 94-98. EURINR may test 87.50-87 if it trades below 88 in the near term. USDINR could continue moving higher towards resistance at 83.30. But whether it will break higher or not is to be seen. Chances of a break higher looks high.

The US Treasury yields have dipped slightly. The chance of seeing an extended rise is still a possibility before a corrective fall happens. The German yields sustain higher and have room to rise further before reversing lower. The 10Yr and 5Yr can dip within their sideways range.

Dow Jones has fallen sharply failing to sustain the rise and may come down further to test 33300. Nifty continues to remain stable above 19600 and looks mixed. DAX can see a corrective bounce from around 15150. Nikkei has broken below the support at 32200 and looks vulnerable to fall further from here. Shanghai is likely to be ranged within 3075-3150.

Brent and WTI have bounced back sharply as the support at $90 and $88 have held well. Gold, Silver and Copper continues to dip and look bearish for a test of their immediate support. Natural gas outlook is mixed.

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28 Sep 23. 0852 IST or 0322 GMT or 2322 EST

Good Morning!

Dollar Index continues to remain bullish towards 107-108. Euro, Pound and EURJPY look bearish for a fall towards 1.0450-1.04, 1.21/20 and 156 respectively. USDJPY can move up towards 150-152 before pausing the rally. Aussie can fall to 0.63 while below 0.6450. USDCNY can rise slowly towards 7.35 while USDRUB can move up within 94-98 range. EURINR may test 87-86 if it continues trade below 88 in the near term. USDINR could continue moving higher towards resistance at 83.30; if breaks can bring in 83.50 into the picture.

The US Treasury yields have risen sharply and have room to rise further. The US PCE data release tomorrow will be important to watch and that can impact the yield movement. The German yields continue to move up in line with our expectation and can rise further. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI continue to remain stuck inside their range. Immediate outlook is mixed, and the range can remain intact for some more time.

Dow Jones tested 33300 as expected and has bounced back from there. Nifty needs a strong break above 19800 to bring back the bullishness. DAX is coming closer to a key support level of 15150. Nikkei to remain bearish for the nerm term. Shanghai is to be range bound within 3075-3150.

Brent and WTI have risen sharply above $95 and $94 respectively after the EIA report that US crude stocks fell by 2.2 million barrels last week to 416.3 million barrels thereby adding woes to tight global supply. Gold has declined sharply breaking below the support at 1900 and looks vulnerable to fall further from here. Silver is near its key support at 22.50/40. Need to see if that holds or not. Copper remains bearish for the near term. Natural gas lacks momentum to rise above 2.95 and is likely to trade within 2.95-2.80 for a while.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

29 Sep 23. 0852 IST or 0322 GMT or 2322 EST

Good Morning!

Small uptick in US initial jobless claims (204k from earlier 202k), stable US GDP (Q/Q% an Y/Y%) and lower German inflation (4.5% Y/Y% from earlier 6.1%) have led to a softer Dollar Index as Euro has risen and could lead to a test of 105.50 on the index and 1.06 or slightly higher on the Euro before resuming the medium term trend again. Pound, Aussie and EURJPY have risen well but need to continue rising to prevent a fall towards earlier expected levels. USDJPY can move up towards 150-152 before pausing the rally. USDCNY can trade within 7.28-7.32 while Dollar Index trades lower. USDRUB can remain within 94-98 range. EURINR is highly volatile within the 87-88 range. USDINR could come down to 83.00-82.90 while below resistance at 83.30.

The US Treasury yields remain higher and are likely to move up further before a reversal is seen. The US PCE data release will need a close watch to see how it impacts the yields. The German yields continue to move up and are coming closer to our expected level. Need to see if a reversal is happening going forward. The 10Yr and 5Yr have surged within their range. It will have to be seen if the expected upside range breakout is happening now or not.

Dow Jones sustains above 33300 but has to rise past 33800 to reduce the danger of falling again. Nifty has declined sharply yesterday and looks bearish to come down further below 19500. DAX has bounced back as the support at 15150 has held well and is likely to move up further on the upside. Nikkei is bearish while it remains below the resistance at 32500. Shanghai is to remain range bound for the near term.

Brent and WTI have fallen back sharply failing to sustain the rise but the near term support are likely to hold and produce a bounce back from there. Gold remains vulnerable below 1900. Silver has bounced back as the support at 22.50 has held well. Copper has risen back sharply but needs to surpass 3.75/3.76 to target its next resistance. Natural gas has risen sharply towards 3.0. A break above 3.0 can be further bullish towards 3.25.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

03 Oct 23. 0856 IST or 0326 GMT or 2326 EST

Good Morning!

A stronger US ISM manufacturing and ISM employment index and stable EU PMI together has aided a rise in the Dollar index while Euro has plunged. We may now expect 108 on the index and 1.04 on the Euro to hold and produce a reversal. Pound, Aussie and EURJPY have all fallen on Dollar strength and are expected to test 1.20, 0.63 and 156. USDJPY can move up towards 150-152 before pausing or reversing from there. USDCNY can be stable within 7.28-7.32 for a while. USDRUB broke the 98-94 range and finally moved up above 99. Could soon test 100-102.50. EURINR can fall to 87. USDINR can rise to 83.30 while above support at

The US Treasury yields continue to move up. They have room to rise further before reversing lower to see a corrective fall. The German yields sustain higher. Outlook remains bullish to see more rise from here. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI continue to oscillate within their range. The bias is bullish to see an upside breakout of this range eventually.

Equities looks bearish. Dow Jones and Nikkei looks vulnerable to test 33000-32800 (Dow) and 31000 (Nikkei) respectively. Nifty needs to sustain above 19500 to avoid falling deeper in the coming sessions. DAX has come down again, failing to sustain the bounce and looks bearish to break below 15200.

Commodities have fallen on the hawkish stance of US Federal Reserve officials on 2nd Oct23 speech. US Federal Reserve officials says that monetary policy will need to stay restrictive for some time to achieve their inflation target. Brent and WTI continues to fall and have scope to test $89 and $86-85 before a bounce back can happen. Gold, Silver, Copper and Natural gas looks bearish for a fall towards their support before a reversal can happen.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

04 Oct 23. 0854 IST or 0324 GMT or 2324 EST

Good Morning!

US ADP employment data today and NFP tomorrow would be crucial to watch. A rise in the ADP employment data if seen today can aid further Dollar strength and could take Euro lower else we may expect a short reversal. Overall Dollar Index and Euro could trade within 108-107 and 1.05-1.04. Pound, Aussie and EURJPY need to bounce and hold above 1.20, 0.63 and 156 respectively in the next few sessions to avoid further decline. USDJPY can trade within 148-150. USDRUB has broken above 100 and could see a slow rise towards 102-102.50. EURINR needs to bounce from 87 else could decline towards 86. USDINR can rise to 83.25/30 while above support at 83. Today’s range could be 83.25-83.10.

The US Treasury yields have surged well beyond our expected levels. If this momentum sustains, the expected corrective fall may not happen, and the yields can rise more straight away towards the next target. The German yields continue to rise. The outlook remains bullish, and more rise is on the cards. The 10Yr GoI stays within the range while the 5Yr has just broken the range on the upside as expected. View is bullish to break the range on the upside and rise going forward.

Dow Jones is heading down towards 32800 from where a reversal might be possible. Nikkei has declined further below 31000 but needs to hold above the support at 30500 to avoid further downside risk. Nifty and DAX looks bearish for the near term.

Brent has bounced back as the support at $89 seems to holding well. WTI too has bounced back from a low $87.76 but needs to surpass $90.50 to reduce the downside pressure. Gold, Silver and Copper remains bearish for a fall towards their support before a reversal can happen. Natural gas appears range bound within 3.00-2.80.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

05 Oct 23. 0847 IST or 0317 GMT or 2317 EST

Good Morning!

US ADP employment data yesterday came out at 89k, lower than the earlier 180k and market expectation of 155k, pulling down Dollar Index to levels below 107. Similarly, a lower US NFP data if seen tomorrow will be able to bring down Dollar Index towards 106 or slightly lower. Euro can test 1.06-1.0650 before pausing. Aussie and Pound have moved up bit but still look bearish in the medium term while below 0.65 and 1.23. EURJPY looks stable and could fall to 155 while below 157. USDJPY has scope to test 147.70 before rising towards 149. USDRUB may pause above 100 but may eventually move up towards 102-102.50. EURINR has bounced from 87 and could rise to 88 before again resuming the fall. USDINR can face rejection from 83.25/30 to fall towards 83.10/00.

The US Treasury yields have come down sharply. An extended fall from here is needed to indicate that the correction has begun. Else they can still see more rise going forward without a correction. The German yields have dipped but are likely to be short-lived. The view is bullish and more rise can be seen going forward. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are attempting to break their range on the upside. A strong follow-through rise from here is needed to boost the bullish momentum and take them higher. Else the range can continue to remain intact. The RBI monetary policy outcome tomorrow will need a close watch.

Dow Jones has bounced from around 32873 and may rise further if the support at 32800-32700 holds well. Nikkei has risen back as the support at 30500 has held well. Nifty and DAX looks bearish for the near term.

Crude prices fell sharply on wednesday as Saudi Arabia's energy ministry confirmed that it will continue to cut its crude output of voluntary 1 million barrel per day (bpd) starting from Nov-23 until the end of 2023. Gold and Silver looks ranged but while the metals remain below 1850 (Gold) and 22 (Silver), bias will remain bearish to see a further dip in the near term. Copper tested 3.55 and has bounced back from there as expected. Need to see if it sustains above 3.55 or not. Natural gas has scope to rise towards 3.3.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

06 Oct 23. 0851 IST or 0321 GMT or 2321 EST

Good Morning!

Dollar Index and Euro are headed towards 106-105.90 and 1.06-1.0650 before a pause or reversal is seen. Aussie and Pound may move up for a few more sessions towards 0.64-0.6420 and 1.22 before a reversal is seen. EURJPY can be ranged within 155-158 while USDJPY has scope to rise while above support at 148. USDRUB may pause around 100 and could show some dip to 99-98 before moving up eventually in the longer run towards 102-102.50. EURINR is moving up but overall view is bearish below 88. USDINR can trad within 83.30/25-83.10/00 for now. US NFP data is to be watched today.

The US Treasury yields remain higher and stable. They will have to fall more from here to enter into a correction before rising further. The US NFP data release today is going to be very important and that can set the direction for the yields. The German yields have dipped further. But supports are there to limit the downside and keep the uptrend intact. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have fallen back into their range. The RBI’s monetary policy outcome today will have to be watched closely.

Dow Jones immediate outlook is mixed. DAX looks vulnerable to a fall towards 14800. Nifty has to rise past 19600 to bring back the bullishness. Nikkei has scope to rise towards 31500 while above the support at 30500.

Crude prices continue to dip breaking below their support level and may remain vulnerable to fall further in the near term. Gold and Silver may remain bearish for the near term. Copper might break below 3.55 and come down towards 3.50. Natural gas has risen sharply and has scope to test 3.25-3.30 before a corrective fall can be seen from there. Watch price action of commodities as the outcome of US NFP today could bring in some volatility in the market.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.

09 Oct 23. 0858 IST or 0328 GMT or 2328 EST

Good Morning!

After the higher than expected US NFP data release, the Dollar Index surged to 107 while the Euro fell but both have now recovered. Dollar Index has support at 106 which if holds can take it higher while Euro may trade within 1.05-1.06. Aussie and Pound may test resistance near 0.64-0.6450 and 1.2250-1.23 respectively. EURJPY is testing resistance at 158 and needs to face rejection to fall lower else can rise to 159-160. USDJPY has support at 148 which if holds can take it towards 150. USDRUB may trade within 98-102.50. EURINR is moving up and can test 88.50 soon. USDINR can fall within 83.30-83.10/00 region.

The US Treasury yields have risen sharply again after the jobs data release on Friday. The US Non-Farm Payroll increased by 336K in September as against the market expectation of 168K. The Treasury yields are likely to extend the rise without seeing an intermediate correction. The German yields remain stable. Supports can limit the downside and keep the overall uptrend intact. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI surged on Friday. The RBI announcing in its monetary policy that it plans to conduct open market operations triggered this rise. Crucial resistances are coming up for both the 10Yr and 5Yr GoI which will need a close watch in the coming days.

Dow Jones has risen well but needs a decisive break above 33500 to strengthen the momentum. DAX can rise to 15600 if it gets a strong follow-through rise from here. Nifty can rise further if it remains above the support at 19600-19500. Shanghai is likely to trade sideways within 3050-3150 for the near term.

US Non-Farm Payroll came in stronger on Friday at 336K (Sep-23) than previous release of 227K and market expectations of 168K thereby causing a rally in the commodities. Crude prices have risen sharply today with a gap up opening but is likely to face resistance at $89.50-90 (Brent) and $88 (WTI) respectively. Gold, Silver and Copper have rebounded well and look bullish for the near term. Natural gas continues to rise and has scope to move up towards 3.5.

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10 Oct 23. 0848 IST or 0318 GMT or 2318 EST

Good Morning!

Dollar Index has dipped to test support near 106-105.50 from where a bounce is needed for the index to strengthen else a further decline could be seen towards 105 or lower. Euro has resistance near 1.06. Aussie and Pound may test resistance near 0.6450 and 1.2250-1.23 respectively. EURJPY fell sharply from resistance at 158 and can trade within 156-158 for now. USDJPY has support at 148 which if holds can take it towards 150. USDRUB may trade within 96/98-102.50. EURINR could hold within the broad 88.50-87.50 region. USDINR needs to break or decline from 83.30 to indicate further movement from here.

The US Treasury and the German yields have come down sharply. The Israel-Hamas war tension has increased the fear in the market and has turned the sentiment risk-averse. A further fall from here can drag both the US and the German yields more from current levels before they resume their broader uptrend. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have come close to their key resistances. A corrective fall is a possibility from here as we expect the resistances to hold on its first test.

Dow Jones has risen above 33500 and while this break sustain, a further rise looks possible. DAX is not getting a follow-through rise to move further up to 15600. Nifty needs a decisive breakout on either side of the 19600-19400 zone to determine its future direction. Nikkei has risen sharply but needs a sustained break above 31700 to continue the bullish momentum. Shanghai looks mixed.

Crude prices have to surpass the resistance at $90 (Brent) and $88 (WTI) respectively to avoid the danger of falling again. Gold, Silver and Copper remains bullish for a test of their immediate resistance in the near term. Natural gas has fallen back from the levels below the resistance at 3.50 but downside could be limited to 3.30.

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11 Oct 23. 0850 IST or 0320 GMT or 2320 EST

Good Morning!

Dollar Index has dipped below 106 but has to face 105.50 yet from where a bounce could still be possible. Euro is above 1.06 and needs to sustain to slowly move higher towards 1.0650+. Aussie and Pound may test resistance near 0.6450 and 1.23-1.2350 respectively. It would be important to see if the levels would hold or break. EURJPY is again rising back towards 158 and could fall to 157-156 if a rejection is seen. USDJPY has support at 148 which if holds can take it towards 150. USDRUB may trade within 95-102.50. EURINR could dip towards 88 or lower while below 88.50. USDINR needs to break higher or decline from 83.30 to indicate further movement from here.

The US Treasury and the German yields remain lower as the sentiment remains risk-averse on the back of the geopolitical tensions. A break below the immediate resistances can drag the Treasury yields lower. The US inflation data release tomorrow will be important to watch. The German yields can also fall more from here before reversing higher again. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI have come down. The resistances are holding well as expected and the yields have room to fall more from here.

Dow Jones and DAX needs to rise past 33900 and 15450 to avoid a fall back. Nifty has risen well above 19600 but needs a further break above 19800 to strengthen the momentum. Nikkei remain bullish. Shanghai looks mixed.

Crude prices looks range bound within $89-86 (Brent) and $88-84 (WTI) respectively. Gold and Silver lacks strength but bias remains bullish to see a test of their immediate resistance. Copper and Natural gas may remain range bound within 3.70-3.55 and 3.3-3.5 respectively for some time.

Read full morning briefing @ https://kshitij.com/morning-briefing.