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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #5,321
  • Jun 1, 2007 12:51pm Jun 1, 2007 12:51pm
Quoting cesarnc
..coz we're going DOOOOWWNNN now...

ok.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #5,322
  • Jun 1, 2007 1:01pm Jun 1, 2007 1:01pm
Just kidding bravado, relax....

UJ sound and safe in the 122 area, as I could not expect btw... some bouncing trades early next week and up it goes.

Fish bottoms, relax, enjoy the ride.
  • #5,323
  • Jun 1, 2007 1:31pm Jun 1, 2007 1:31pm
Quoting cesarnc
Just kidding bravado, relax....

UJ sound and safe in the 122 area, as I could not expect btw... some bouncing trades early next week and up it goes.

Fish bottoms, relax, enjoy the ride.
no i will not relax.

anyway, if it sinks, its all your fault.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #5,324
  • Jun 1, 2007 1:41pm Jun 1, 2007 1:41pm
Quoting bravado
no i will not relax.

anyway, if it sinks, its all your fault.
Just printed 242.01... I call this "higher highs"

If goes directly to 242.50 on Monday, will I get a lollipop?
  • #5,325
  • Edited 2:15pm Jun 1, 2007 1:57pm | Edited 2:15pm
Quoting cesarnc
Just printed 242.01... I call this "higher highs"

If goes directly to 242.50 on Monday, will I get a lollipop?
i took that long on my own accord. buy your own.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #5,326
  • Jun 1, 2007 6:56pm Jun 1, 2007 6:56pm
http://forexfactory.com/showthread.p...08#post1456608
  • #5,327
  • Jun 2, 2007 1:04am Jun 2, 2007 1:04am
Quoting chaoz
i don't see any reason for G/J to go down today, is there? i hope we see 242 today as we se UJ at 122
  • #5,328
  • Jun 3, 2007 11:25am Jun 3, 2007 11:25am
do you think the the GJ will fall sunday evening early monday morning before having another go at the 242 as it was in the overbought friday evening so dont know how much go it has left in it for this try?
  • #5,329
  • Jun 3, 2007 12:23pm Jun 3, 2007 12:23pm
Quoting dirtymonkey79
do you think the the GJ will fall sunday evening early monday morning before having another go at the 242 as it was in the overbought friday evening so dont know how much go it has left in it for this try?
Kind of hard to tell without todays open, however, both previous moves off the 4h trend line have hit around the 300 pip mark before retracing, this ones only at 200 now. I do have some resistance on the upward candles, but it doesn't look like enough to stop it yet. All that could change on the open today though.
  • #5,330
  • Jun 3, 2007 12:39pm Jun 3, 2007 12:39pm
any one heard any more about the new out of china?
  • #5,331
  • Jun 3, 2007 12:46pm Jun 3, 2007 12:46pm
For me, GJ's fate is UJ's fate. 122.20-30 area is 5 years high. All odds are in favour of a possible breach (dollar mixed-to-bullish, poor data from Japan, so forth). But we gotta check UJ's behaviour in that area first.

GU is still mixed, and for me, impossible to forecast the next 15M candle for 2 weeks. But overall, carry trades are still favoured, so I'm a bottom fisher in the 241/121 areas or will add at breach of 122.20.

Off course, keeping China under the microscope... This last rumour of a possible Capital Gain Tax hit the market and China denied. "China denied" is of great concern now, since "China denied" they would raise the stamp duty, too.
  • #5,332
  • Jun 3, 2007 12:53pm Jun 3, 2007 12:53pm
does anyone have a time frame for when they could release the news if they do?
  • #5,333
  • Jun 3, 2007 1:22pm Jun 3, 2007 1:22pm
Quoting dirtymonkey79
does anyone have a time frame for when they could release the news if they do?
On China, forget about it. Last rate hike came out of nowehere and the stamp duty hike was released at midnight local...

Carry trades selloff detected, start looking for news ...
  • #5,334
  • Jun 3, 2007 4:14pm Jun 3, 2007 4:14pm
Then should we start selling off now? I have a sell stop at 241.70 just in case the market starts moving down. Should I risk trying to grab more pips by just making an instant order right now at about 241.90?

How sure are we that the price will drop 100-200 pips? I read some other analysis on other formums and websites and it says that USD/JPY is bullish because of relatively bullish US news and weakining JPY news. If USD/JPY is connected as heavily to GBP/JPY as Cesarnc says we might see the rally moving farther up.

Can anyone give some input?
  • #5,335
  • Jun 3, 2007 4:21pm Jun 3, 2007 4:21pm
Quoting Lagoona2003
Then should we start selling off now? I have a sell stop at 241.70 just in case the market starts moving down. Should I risk trying to grab more pips by just making an instant order right now at about 241.90?

How sure are we that the price will drop 100-200 pips? I read some other analysis on other formums and websites and it says that USD/JPY is bullish because of relatively bullish US news and weakining JPY news. If USD/JPY is connected as heavily to GBP/JPY as Cesarnc says we might see the rally moving farther up.

Can anyone give some input?
GJ is heavily connected with UJ and also with GU. That's why it is GJ....

And by reading you post, I guess I wasn't clear: we cannot tell when China releases its announcements or if they will come with this Capital Gain Tax. This is something that could trigger a selloff, if happens....

For now, I'm a buyer at Friday pivot 241.57, while a remaining lot from 241.13 is still running. Will add above 242, provided UJ is safe above 122.00/20
  • #5,336
  • Jun 3, 2007 4:56pm Jun 3, 2007 4:56pm
Quoting 4x_Trader
Long 241.14 gbpjpy
short 121.80 usdjpy
Pls allow me to update my "perfect hedge" for the month:

GBPJPY 242.12 (+98)
USDJPY 122.05 (-25)

big bucks to come....
  • #5,337
  • Jun 3, 2007 5:04pm Jun 3, 2007 5:04pm
just shorted GJ on better than forecasted JPY news
  • #5,338
  • Jun 3, 2007 5:41pm Jun 3, 2007 5:41pm
Quoting gr8collector
just shorted GJ on better than forecasted JPY news
nice analysis but the problem is this:

20:02The Nikkei 225 opens up +109.20 at 18, 067.90. (due to stronger than expected japanese data)

remember the equity market is directly proportional to carry trades that's why going long is still favorable in this session...
  • #5,339
  • Jun 3, 2007 5:51pm Jun 3, 2007 5:51pm
which means weaker yen??
  • #5,340
  • Jun 3, 2007 7:21pm Jun 3, 2007 7:21pm
Quoting 4x_Trader
nice analysis but the problem is this:

20:02The Nikkei 225 opens up +109.20 at 18, 067.90. (due to stronger than expected japanese data)

remember the equity market is directly proportional to carry trades that's why going long is still favorable in this session...
Agreed. Although Chinese stock market is selling off again, on rumors of the capital gains tax. As far as its correction is not spreaded as "risk aversion" throughout the world, this is an opportunity to build long positions for the rest of the week.

At least this is how I trade yen pairs. Bottom fishing + patience + SEVERAL BIG pips. I don't go for tiny scalping in pairs that can provide the trade of the week in a couple of days
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