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Let's Trade Options

  • #18,881
  • Sep 6, 2023 1:32pm Sep 6, 2023 1:32pm
4 red dailies, almost unheard of, let's see if today's hammer will bust a green one tomorrow. I tried a leg-in on some Sep8/12 call calendars, bot Sep 8/11 put cldrs outright, will show later...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,882
  • Sep 9, 2023 8:23pm Sep 9, 2023 8:23pm
I am in a pretty bad losing streak. Need to decrease risk and recoup for a while. Maybe more flys in my diet will help? The bw put fly shown has a $10 offset low, gets the debit to $0.00. I would play the calendar guard with XSP or SPY, eliminates the downside risk. The goal would be to take the calendar long calls to expiry day for the fly. Low risk, 20-bag potential. We are gonna start seeing some big candles here soon, I bet.

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,883
  • Sep 11, 2023 6:45pm Sep 11, 2023 6:45pm
I like the RUT time spreads going into triple witch....as set up, maxP on the spread is end of day Thurs, let some longs ride into Friday if yer lucky
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,884
  • Sep 12, 2023 8:34am Sep 12, 2023 8:34am
Quoting The Fool
I like the RUT time spreads going into triple witch....
RUT wants to bounce off the 200dma, but I entered the dbl cldr ~ shown above - 1790/1910, for about 60c a side
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,885
  • Edited 10:33am Sep 14, 2023 8:51am | Edited 10:33am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}RUT wants to bounce off the 200dma, but I entered the dbl cldr ~ shown above - 1790/1910, for about 60c a side {image}
....Closed for a dime profit, 30c loss on puts, 40c gain on calls. Kept a few calls to run....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,886
  • Sep 14, 2023 9:55am Sep 14, 2023 9:55am
hey moneymaker, how ya been?

Been tough making money with these range-capturing trades, since range is dead.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,887
  • Sep 14, 2023 5:05pm Sep 14, 2023 5:05pm
FOR Friday, SPX dbl cldr was Sep15/18 4390/4550....puts came off today for a 60c loss, calls will make up for it if we get some bull follow-thru overnight. Triple witch Friday could be sticky though......
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A run to 4,550 would make my month. ATR has been depressed to 112 weekly, the weekly candle range for SPX as of today is only 58. There's a breakout coming, I am bullish...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,888
  • Sep 16, 2023 3:30pm Sep 16, 2023 3:30pm
Quoting The Fool
FOR Friday, SPX dbl cldr was Sep15/18 4390/4550....puts came off today for a 60c loss, calls will make up for it if we get some bull follow-thru overnight. Triple witch Friday could be sticky though...... {image} A run to 4,550 would make my month. ATR has been depressed to 112 weekly, the weekly candle range for SPX as of today is only 58. There's a breakout coming, I am bullish...
...another losing week. I admit I gave in to the hopium, assuming we could run to 4550, even though I saw big put prize money down at 4450....and that's where they took it Friday. I am down, but not out....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,889
  • Sep 17, 2023 7:05am Sep 17, 2023 7:05am
Quoting The Fool
{quote}...another losing week. ....
I will say, generally, almost all of my losses are due to my own poor execution. Most common probably is holding too long in a time spread & then getting crushed by a whipsaw. Besides that, another common error is overtrading - not taking the best trades. In truth, trading options in low volatility requires mo adjustment - you have to extend timeframe, tailor expectations. The entire year has had lots of periods of very low volatility, that's why the ATR of indices and the VIX have crashed. Overtrading for me is a product of my own arrogance, since I believe I can profit anytime, but, in reality, often the best trade is no trade at all. That and boredom probably. It's ok to stay engaged, just trade very small in crummy trading conditions. Anyway, thanks for listening, I feel better now....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,890
  • Sep 20, 2023 8:04am Sep 20, 2023 8:04am
Calculate GEX using free data, in Excel....

https://perfiliev.co.uk/market-comme...o-gamma-level/
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,891
  • Sep 20, 2023 8:13am Sep 20, 2023 8:13am
This week's combo. The 3-lot single SPX calls is more like a 25-lot SPY $453 calls.

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,892
  • Edited 3:51pm Sep 20, 2023 1:09pm | Edited 3:51pm
Quoting The Fool
This week's combo. The 3-lot single SPX calls is more like a 25-lot SPY $453 calls.
closed SPX call diagonals for full 10c loss. I also had RUT call calendars @ Sep 22/25 $1895 but those were cheap also - 30c. Will let those run in case Thursday sees a bull reversal. I have QQQ $360 put calendars itm, also the SPX put calendars above, will make some money if bear action follows thru into the next 2 days....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,893
  • Edited 3:19pm Sep 21, 2023 9:11am | Edited 3:19pm
QQQ $360 put cldrs closed for 40c profit. Trying to net out $5 on the SPX 4350 put cldrs, SPX sitting right at the strike & I want $6...about 50c away. Probably will close today rather than chancing losing $ on a big move either way Friday....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,894
  • Sep 21, 2023 12:57pm Sep 21, 2023 12:57pm
Quoting The Fool
Trying to net out $5 on the SPX 4350 put cldrs, SPX sitting right at the strike & I want $6...about 50c away. Probably will close today rather than chancing losing $ on a big move either way Friday....
$6 tp came close but I hadda take $5.80 now to close the week. Not too shabby....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,895
  • Sep 21, 2023 9:27pm Sep 21, 2023 9:27pm
compare volume to OI - the SPY options trade now is almost entirely 0-1 dte....
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you don't have to know what gamma is to see $435 is toast
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,896
  • Sep 21, 2023 10:15pm Sep 21, 2023 10:15pm
anyway I am flat & looking to next week. The Fed govt shutdown will be in the news every day and will likely drag all the way to the wire, which is next Saturday. So, unless that is all baked in (I don't think so), risk is southside, with 4,200 an easy target at the 200-dma for the end of the week, or lower. Noting the gap at 4,400 to revisit after the storm blows over, or someday.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,897
  • Sep 21, 2023 10:29pm Sep 21, 2023 10:29pm
some ideas for 4,200...
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,898
  • Sep 21, 2023 10:57pm Sep 21, 2023 10:57pm
yep, even 4,170, by first of the month.

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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,899
  • Sep 24, 2023 12:03am Sep 24, 2023 12:03am
Looking for RUT to retrace up in this channel. Watch for falling inflation data to bring that small cap bull out of hiding.
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #18,900
  • Sep 24, 2023 12:12am Sep 24, 2023 12:12am
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
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