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The Swamp

  • #111,921
  • Sep 8, 2023 7:09am Sep 8, 2023 7:09am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} Just woke up , back in longs again, let’s see {image}
flat this morning ones too at 1.0740..
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  • #111,922
  • Sep 8, 2023 7:15am Sep 8, 2023 7:15am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} Trend status atm ( current price at 1.698) All downtrend, bearish... Downtrend Stops M15 1.0721 M30 1.0728 H1 1.0744 H4 1.0814 1
Trend status atm ( current price at 1.0739),, working on M30 15mins to go,,,

Bulls took back M15 trend...

Downtrend Stops
M30 1.0728
H1 1.0744
H4 1.0814

Uptrend Stops
M15 1.0709
  • #111,923
  • Sep 8, 2023 7:15am Sep 8, 2023 7:15am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} cash out or not?? Or add? {image}
I will not long to it. 0827 35 41 may be tough to pass. 0875/77/88 to me may be a nice short. 0841 can have residual. The latest, previous, yellow zone, at 0875. I like it an month pp near.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #111,924
  • Sep 8, 2023 7:16am Sep 8, 2023 7:16am
Quoting SashaP
Flat 4k good weekend {image}
Wow... congratulations!

I'm kinda jealous
  • #111,925
  • Sep 8, 2023 7:18am Sep 8, 2023 7:18am
Quoting Boulder
9/8 Friday levels 1.0748 1.0731 1.0720 1.0703- PP 1.0685 1.0675 1.0657 1.0720 just printed, next print 1.0731 or 1.0685
9/8 Friday levels

1.0748
1.0731
1.0720

1.0703- PP

1.0685
1.0675
1.0657

1.0731 just printed, next print 1.0748
  • #111,926
  • Sep 8, 2023 7:25am Sep 8, 2023 7:25am
Quoting Ferna
{quote} Best to cash out here? Im beginner, i think 40 more pips in around 25 minutes, just some time for coffee. moved stops so i am at profit atleast
I like trailing stops at times like these
  • #111,927
  • Sep 8, 2023 7:32am Sep 8, 2023 7:32am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} Trend status atm ( current price at 1.0739),, working on M30 15mins to go,,, Bulls took back M15 trend... Downtrend Stops M30 1.0728 H1 1.0744 H4 1.0814 Uptrend Stops M15 1.0709
Trend status atm ( current price at 1.0730,, ,,,

Bulls took back M30 trend...

Downtrend Stops

H1 1.0744
H4 1.0814

Uptrend Stops
M15 1.0707
M30 1.0692
1
  • #111,928
  • Sep 8, 2023 7:33am Sep 8, 2023 7:33am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} cash out or not?? Or add? {image}
I start to refill the longs if this retraces,,,
  • #111,929
  • Sep 8, 2023 7:46am Sep 8, 2023 7:46am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} Trend status atm ( current price at 1.0730,, ,,, Bulls took back M30 trend... Downtrend Stops H1 1.0744 H4 1.0814 Uptrend Stops M15 1.0707 M30 1.0692 1
Hi Boulder.

Can you please describe what exactly you are doing?

I see that you are stating 'levels'.
Are they levels of interest or you actually have pending orders at those levels?
Are they set in stone or you are constantly revising them?

You probably have explained everything somewhere but if you could make another explanation of how you are going about things, so I can follow pls?
The interactions between your time frame levels are really fascinating btw.
  • #111,930
  • Sep 8, 2023 8:02am Sep 8, 2023 8:02am
Quoting OutThere
{quote} Hi Boulder. Can you please describe what exactly you are doing? I see that you are stating 'levels'. Are they levels of interest or you actually have pending orders at those levels? Are they set in stone or you are constantly revising them? You probably have explained everything somewhere but if you could make another explanation of how you are going about things, so I can follow pls? The interactions between your time frame levels are really fascinating btw.
Can you please describe what exactly you are doing?
multi time frame trend trading,,

Are they levels of interest or you actually have pending orders at those levels?
Stops confirm the trend will continue if the stop holds or trend reverses if the stop fails to hold at close
I will trade inside the trend if the trend stop can hold,,
  • #111,931
  • Sep 8, 2023 8:53am Sep 8, 2023 8:53am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} Trend status atm ( current price at 1.0730,, ,,, Bulls took back M30 trend... Downtrend Stops H1 1.0744 H4 1.0814 Uptrend Stops M15 1.0707 M30 1.0692 1
testing M15..7 mins to go../
  • #111,932
  • Sep 8, 2023 9:19am Sep 8, 2023 9:19am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Today being a week close. -0678, bear continuing. +0718. Some bounce. I see your 1h flipped to bull. I see the 4h at 0814. If it does bounce. 0825/89 has a bunch of level. 6mth pp 0827, conception 0835, Qpp 0877 mth pp 0889, wk pp 0825 it think. 0776 0792 are others. even 0700. Pa is below all of these. 0682-84 and 0691 levels are aided with the week trend at 0678 dynamic week trend. Even 0666 can have some aid. We got 3 weeks till this Q ends. Pa is very bearish. PA has not tested 0835 yet 4h 0814, 6h 0847. lots of some 2h starting 0770s...
Important today. Even if it closes above 0718.. Its probably coming back at a R. It can be a violent up. It can be a violent down. PA is missing adr the past few days. So when it pops, it can run. Often in these consolidations. It may run opposite of the prevalent trend. It may settle back into the trend after. I miss it if its down first. PA is very bearish. I dont know if it will bounce first, but plan to short it. If it goes North first. In this way. I stay with the trend. I have tested some longs only at supports. Not for boredom etc.
While pa is below 0717.. It can run to 0666/78/82/84 at any moment. What happens after? I have longs there. But only for a violent bull reaction. Not to hold and watch it continue to drop.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #111,933
  • Sep 8, 2023 9:48am Sep 8, 2023 9:48am
Sic transit gloria mundi...

Norway’s $1.4 trillion investment fund is shutting its China office...
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/08/i...hnk/index.html
I am who I am
  • #111,934
  • Sep 8, 2023 9:51am Sep 8, 2023 9:51am
Quoting imwim
Sic transit gloria mundi... Norway’s $1.4 trillion investment fund is shutting its China office... https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/08/i...hnk/index.html
China imports of raw materials is slowing. U.S exports to China less. That should = China's economy shrinking.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #111,935
  • Sep 8, 2023 10:06am Sep 8, 2023 10:06am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} China imports of raw materials is slowing. U.S exports to China less. That should = China's economy shrinking.
China's shrinking population too...

The UN forecasts that China's population will decline from 1.426 billion this year to 1.313 billion by 2050 and below 800 million by 2100...
https://www.pewresearch.org/short-re...ng-population/
I am who I am
  • #111,936
  • Sep 8, 2023 5:55pm Sep 8, 2023 5:55pm
Quoting imwim
{quote} China's shrinking population too... The UN forecasts that China's population will decline from 1.426 billion this year to 1.313 billion by 2050 and below 800 million by 2100... https://www.pewresearch.org/short-re...ng-population/
With people alive in China already living somewhere. Who will rent/buy the millions of condo apartments. People spent their life savings buying 2 or 3 of? Pop goes the weasel. The article you posted has a population decline as soon as 2023. I'm looking at my watch now.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #111,937
  • Sep 8, 2023 6:04pm Sep 8, 2023 6:04pm
these are aging well.. 14 years later

Quoting gatorinla
{quote} in any business the cheaper the raw material the cheaper you sell the product. india has raw materials.. china is far less gifted. it will not be able to compete against cheaper products.. give india time to get its act together as you did china.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #111,938
  • Sep 8, 2023 7:27pm Sep 8, 2023 7:27pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Today being a week close. -0678, bear continuing. +0718. Some bounce. I see your 1h flipped to bull. I see the 4h at 0814. If it does bounce. 0825/89 has a bunch of level. 6mth pp 0827, conception 0835, Qpp 0877 mth pp 0889, wk pp 0825 it think. 0776 0792 are others. even 0700. Pa is below all of these. 0682-84 and 0691 levels are aided with the week trend at 0678 dynamic week trend. Even 0666 can have some aid. We got 3 weeks till this Q ends. Pa is very bearish. PA has not tested 0835 yet 4h 0814, 6h 0847. lots of some 2h starting 0770s...
POS is a tease. In the middle..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #111,939
  • Sep 9, 2023 3:11am Sep 9, 2023 3:11am
Quoting Ferna
{quote} how do you calculate weekly avg, and how to get 1/2 of that?
add the last 24 weeks total pip movement, divide by 24. That's near the 6 month average movement, each week. 26 would be more accurate. on the month its a 2 year average (24 months). 24 periods on the day is close to a 1 month average. The amount of periods is arbitrary. a 20 sma is a good average. So for me, 20 to 26 should be close. It is what it is. Its just an average. Most moves are close to average. The -50 pip miss last week was much less than average. A anomaly, hitting 50 pips above is a anomaly. It happens, just not so much. Since you have the 50 pip deficit. A 50 pip above average may come, but when? Because an average is self correcting. When the amount of pips shrink, so does the average and vice verse. Last week week was 50 pips shy of average. 2 weeks was was almost perfect on average. The last 5 weeks was 30 pips below average. The week is due for a week above average move.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #111,940
  • Sep 9, 2023 3:55am Sep 9, 2023 3:55am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} add the last 24 weeks total pip movement, divide by 24. That's near the 6 month average movement, each week. 26 would be more accurate. on the month its a 2 year average (24 months). 24 periods on the day is close to a 1 month average. The amount of periods is arbitrary. a 20 sma is a good average. So for me, 20 to 26 should be close. It is what it is. Its just an average. Most moves are close to average. The -50 pip miss last week was much less than average. A anomaly, hitting 50 pips above is a anomaly. It happens, just not so much. Since...
I'm not calling for a short term bottom. PA is below key levels, pa did not close above 0717. If that be the high (next week), a average drop is 175 pips lower. If 0678 area is the low, add 175 to it. Whenever pa runs either way. 1/2 of 175 may be time to fade some. Against trend, odds start to decrease even more there. Plus your already behind the trend 8 ball. I think many get burned on a day, week, month move. FOMO on a trend turn. Next week if it was to rise 0750+. A trend can go much longer than my account. With the trend down. 175 should have better odds than 175 up. With the trend being down. If you see the week 175 pips up off that weeks low. You may want to find a place to short. The same with a day 75 pips rise. The odds of diminisihing returns increase. Anytime at what I think is a solid support. I may long toward adr, awr, or amr. Early next week, the same with 0717.. To rise, bulls have to take it, bulls have to sustain it. The trend is down. On a rise, find R to short. No need to long to it.








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