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USDCAD trend reversal?

  • #461
  • Jun 1, 2007 11:09pm Jun 1, 2007 11:09pm
Quoting Bemac
Thanks for the Links John.

Yet another tool to place in my toolbox.
Your welcome, glad you find it usefull, I don't know how market wide that data is because it is from Oanda's site, but I think there is some validity to it market wide.

Gotta say it really amazes me to see the positioning of so many traders, I wonder just how long some of them have been long? I mean this trend has been going down for nearly 5 years now......

http://img106.imageshack.us/img106/8...enshot1ap3.png
Same Whore .... Different Dress
  • #462
  • Jun 2, 2007 12:34am Jun 2, 2007 12:34am
I see people posting that usd/cad at parity. What does parity mean?
  • #463
  • Jun 2, 2007 12:43am Jun 2, 2007 12:43am
Quoting imbiber
I see people posting that usd/cad at parity. What does parity mean?
here ya go..... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parity

Also see this link.... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Purchasing_power_parity
Same Whore .... Different Dress
  • #464
  • Jun 2, 2007 5:20am Jun 2, 2007 5:20am
Quoting Swana
USD/CAD forecast
1 month 1,055
3 moths 1,075
12 months 1,135
3 posts and you are allready the king of forecast...

So you will probably even tell us when the reversal will occur. Right ?

Enventually, can you tell us when Bernanke will put a new hike on US rate with the US economy going down ?
  • #465
  • Jun 2, 2007 5:40am Jun 2, 2007 5:40am
Interesting:

johndoe's chart shows Oanda traders very net short Cad (thus, long USDCAD)

The COT report shows the big traders net long CAD (thus, short USDCAD) and long positions are increasing week after week while shorts are decreasing....

- Note, this report shows long/short CAD positions, not USDCAD positions.

I'm staying with THOSE GUYS down here...
Attached Image
  • #466
  • Jun 2, 2007 5:51am Jun 2, 2007 5:51am
If you want to talk about crowd behavior the only report I trust is COT not some data from Oanda. No disrespect to Oanda but they are a only a retail broker. The true picture for me is totally different from the one shown above which is more than 2/3 of the retail/speculative positions are long CAD and by the way this is a record high for this year. Now I see a lot of people get confused when someone say long or short CAD or long / short USD/CAD. Here is the difference :

  1. long USD/CAD = short CAD
  2. short USD/CAD = long CAD

Having said all that I agree that the crowd behavior is betting one way but it's for a short USD/CAD

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cad.PNG Size: 13 KB
  • #467
  • Jun 2, 2007 5:55am Jun 2, 2007 5:55am
Quoting JimboFX
If you want to talk about crowd behavior
Now, THAT'S crowd behaviour... I just posted this COT report here, too
  • #468
  • Jun 2, 2007 6:04am Jun 2, 2007 6:04am
Quoting cesarnc
Now, THAT'S crowd behaviour... I just posted this COT report here, too

It's good to see someone on the same page
  • #469
  • Jun 2, 2007 8:12am Jun 2, 2007 8:12am
Quoting johnedoe
Here is a good example of your statment........


http://img67.imageshack.us/img67/292...enshot1cm2.png

link to pagehttp://fxtrade.oanda.com/resources/t...nsummary.shtml

here is another link showing open positions %.........
http://fxtrade.oanda.com/resources/t...ositions.shtml


And people wonder why 95% of retail traders fail to succeed....
  • #470
  • Jun 2, 2007 9:35am Jun 2, 2007 9:35am
Quoting JimboFX
If you want to talk about crowd behavior the only report I trust is COT not some data from Oanda. No disrespect to Oanda but they are a only a retail broker. The true picture for me is totally different from the one shown above which is more than 2/3 of the retail/speculative positions are long CAD and by the way this is a record high for this year. Now I see a lot of people get confused when someone say long or short CAD or long / short USD/CAD. Here is the difference :

  1. long USD/CAD = short CAD
  2. short USD/CAD = long CAD

Having said all that I agree that the crowd behavior is betting one way but it's for a short USD/CAD

More simply said, when you go LONG on CAD, you are buying CAD meaning you sell the other part of the pair hence short on USD/CAD means SHORT on USD and LONG on CAD.

Long CADYEN, you are LONG on CAD and SHORT on YEN (like everyone for the Yen lol )
  • #471
  • Jun 2, 2007 9:55am Jun 2, 2007 9:55am
Look that !!! A possible reversion in 1.06..
What do u think?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.jpg Size: 47 KB
  • #472
  • Jun 2, 2007 10:28am Jun 2, 2007 10:28am
Quoting JimboFX
If you want to talk about crowd behavior the only report I trust is COT not some data from Oanda. No disrespect to Oanda but they are a only a retail broker. The true picture for me is totally different from the one shown above which is more than 2/3 of the retail/speculative positions are long CAD and by the way this is a record high for this year. Now I see a lot of people get confused when someone say long or short CAD or long / short USD/CAD. Here is the difference :

  1. long USD/CAD = short CAD
  2. short USD/CAD = long CAD

Having said all that I agree that the crowd behavior is betting one way but it's for a short USD/CAD

Interesting that while the retail/speculative positions (non-commercial) are more long on CAD and longs are increasing, the big institutions (commercial) are very heavy short CAD, and the shorts are increasing at a faster rate than the speculative longs.
  • #473
  • Jun 2, 2007 11:07am Jun 2, 2007 11:07am
Quoting asu4
Look that !!! A possible reversion in 1.06..
What do u think?
nice screenshot that's what i think... We will se it there is resistance around this level
  • #474
  • Jun 3, 2007 12:29am Jun 3, 2007 12:29am
Please be aware of inflation pressure leading to raise interest rate, should that be true, it shall take place next month. I look forward to 1.05 area, and my opinion, 1.0000 will not be there until the end of year. Rebound? not yet~
"Quality means doing it right when no one is looking"
  • #475
  • Jun 3, 2007 3:21am Jun 3, 2007 3:21am
Quoting bluebuddha
Interesting that while the retail/speculative positions (non-commercial) are more long on CAD and longs are increasing, the big institutions (commercial) are very heavy short CAD, and the shorts are increasing at a faster rate than the speculative longs.

Indeed. But I don't really look at commercial traders as they are not only big institutions and banks but hedgers as well and those guys are making money either way. They can afford the price to go against them for couple of thousands of pips as they have equal and offseting cash market postions.
  • #476
  • Jun 3, 2007 6:21am Jun 3, 2007 6:21am
Quoting asu4
Look that !!! A possible reversion in 1.06..
What do u think?
Thinking like that was exactly how the Oanda people ended in that swamp
  • #477
  • Jun 3, 2007 6:37am Jun 3, 2007 6:37am
Quoting cesarnc
Thinking like that was exactly how the Oanda people ended in that swamp
Heck, I thought he was joking. OMG! Another victim in the making...
  • #478
  • Jun 4, 2007 4:38am Jun 4, 2007 4:38am
A post just to bring the thread up in the list, as USDCAD goes down... again...
  • #479
  • Jun 4, 2007 4:42am Jun 4, 2007 4:42am
Quoting cesarnc
A post just to bring the thread up in the list, as USDCAD goes down... again...
Yep, CAD made its move against all pairs again. CAD still the strongest out there starting June.
The market is my nation. Traders, my family. Hello, brothers and sisters!
  • #480
  • Jun 4, 2007 5:50am Jun 4, 2007 5:50am
Quoting cesarnc
A post just to bring the thread up in the list, as USDCAD goes down... again...
yup, and there's yet another safe shorty in my account (trailing stop is way below opened position already) geez, what a reef of gold! That's simply insane lol
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