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USDCAD trend reversal?

  • #421
  • Jun 1, 2007 12:14pm Jun 1, 2007 12:14pm
Quoting iiivb
How you know that?
When USD/CAD goes down like this then US products and goods have lower price in Canada, this will harmful for them ...
  • #422
  • Jun 1, 2007 12:15pm Jun 1, 2007 12:15pm
Quoting StockKJay
You know what they say, it is when everyone finds out about the trend that it turns around. You can't have average joes coming to a party and getting free pickings ... this short term trend will likely be over before the end of June. Who know what happens after a few hundred pips of correction though. I wont be holding my breath.
Some average joes think its time to turn around others are jumping the bandwagon. Ultimatley it really doesn't matter what they think, average joes lose money even when their analysis is sound.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #423
  • Jun 1, 2007 12:18pm Jun 1, 2007 12:18pm
Quoting cesarnc
10:53USD/CAD: We haven't seen a curency pair in need of a respirtaor this bad in quite a long time...Most supports to the downside are psychologicl in nature or option related

I say BRING'EM ON
Hello Cesar. Yes, very hyper extended. We currently have 12 consecutive record session lows on the weekly chart for the USD/CAD. In reference to
candles, we are well past the 8-10 record session pattern. We do have a lower descending Trendline on the Monthly in the vicinity of 1.0345 but with each aggresive move south the likelyhood of a retrace prior to that increases.
  • #424
  • Jun 1, 2007 12:18pm Jun 1, 2007 12:18pm
Quoting viking
When USD/CAD goes down like this then US products and goods have lower price in Canada, this will harmful for them ...
So are you long USD/CAD?
  • #425
  • Jun 1, 2007 12:19pm Jun 1, 2007 12:19pm
The average joe who finds out about this trend and follows it is not an average joe. If you show this trend to someone new at trading, do you think he's more likely go with the trend or go against it?
  • #426
  • Jun 1, 2007 12:22pm Jun 1, 2007 12:22pm
Quoting Pipsqueak
The average joe who finds out about this trend and follows it is not an average joe. If you show this trend to someone new at trading, do you think he's more likely go with the trend or go against it?
Aye if I had to guess most would look at the indicators or such which state it being oversold and try to go off a bottom not there.
  • #427
  • Jun 1, 2007 12:29pm Jun 1, 2007 12:29pm
Loonie to be at par with U.S. dollar by year-end: CIBC World Markets

Fri Jun 1, 9:02 AM

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(CP)
TORONTO (CP) - The Canadian dollar will be worth as much as the U.S. greenback by the end of the year, CIBC World Markets economists predict (TSX: CM.TO).
Friday's report cites an expected rise in Canadian interest rates and stronger-than-expected economic growth, along with hot commodity prices and an "avalanche" of corporate takeovers that require foreign acquirers to deal in Canadian dollars.
"With the national jobless rate plumbing 30-year lows and core inflation now bobbing above the Bank of Canada's target range, our earlier assumption of the Bank of Canada intervening against a further rise in the Canadian dollar with rate cuts no longer seems tenable," says CIBC World Markets chief economist Jeff Rubin.
In fact, he says the central bank will likely welcome a further rise in the currency, which was trading Friday morning at a three-decade high of over 93.7 cents US.
"The bank has already indicated that it expects to raise interest rates shortly," Rubin said, referring to Tuesday's Bank of Canada statement holding rates steady for now but warning of the likelihood of a tightening soon.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve looks set to cut rates late in the year, reducing the attractiveness of the American dollar, Rubin says.
"Between red-hot commodity and energy markets and huge capital inflows associated with an avalanche of (merger and acquisition) deals, the Canadian currency has plenty of octane left to take a concerted run toward parity against the greenback and hold it into at least the first quarter of 2008."

Failure, is a wonderful teacher!
  • #428
  • Jun 1, 2007 12:44pm Jun 1, 2007 12:44pm
Quoting Pipsqueak
The average joe who finds out about this trend and follows it is not an average joe. If you show this trend to someone new at trading, do you think he's more likely go with the trend or go against it?

Well...I think trading involves a little bit more than just seeing a trend and saying follow it. Personally, I dont care what the newbie or the experienced trader would do. All I care about is what do I believe to be unfolding and how can I profit from it at minimal risk.

And as for this newbie vs experienced or professional trader thing - most speculative experienced and professional traders lose money as well or make very little of it.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #429
  • Jun 1, 2007 1:04pm Jun 1, 2007 1:04pm
Quoting StockKJay
You know what they say, it is when everyone finds out about the trend that it turns around. You can't have average joes coming to a party and getting free pickings ... this short term trend will likely be over before the end of June. Who know what happens after a few hundred pips of correction though. I wont be holding my breath.
SHORT TERM TREND?

It's going down for 5 years!!!!!!!!!!!!

Attached Image
  • #430
  • Jun 1, 2007 1:10pm Jun 1, 2007 1:10pm
Quoting cesarnc
SHORT TERM TREND?

It's going down for 5 years!!!!!!!!!!!!

Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #431
  • Jun 1, 2007 1:12pm Jun 1, 2007 1:12pm
Here's the thing, check the chart above.

Every time USDCAD breached the low point after a months-wide correction, it pushed down fast and big.

This actual move started at 0920, when I first called the attention to this long term view here... Everybody went NNNOOOO WWAAYYYY....

Now we are 300 pips below after this breakout, which is a long term breakout, thus 300 pips are nothing.

When I first said 0300 here, everybody went NOOO WAAYYYY, now we are in the middle of the road.....

This was a major breakout repeating the pattern that USDCAD is repeating for 5 damn years. Call it momentum or whatever you want. We are going down....

Ok, this was just a breath from me... The "can't go down forever" + " definitely absolute bottom, time to long", can resume their discussion.
  • #432
  • Jun 1, 2007 1:13pm Jun 1, 2007 1:13pm
some of the most successful trend-followers use this mantra: buy high and sell low.

couldn't be more apt to the loonie. Could easily make it to parity or lower. We'll see but I worry for all you knife-catchers out there.

Quoting StockKJay
You know what they say, it is when everyone finds out about the trend that it turns around. You can't have average joes coming to a party and getting free pickings ... this short term trend will likely be over before the end of June. Who know what happens after a few hundred pips of correction though. I wont be holding my breath.
TRADE FOR SWAP
  • #433
  • Jun 1, 2007 1:40pm Jun 1, 2007 1:40pm
I am trading micro lots, long at 1.1110 and have been prepared for down move till 1.0000. I go short every 20 pips or so retrace and made good pips so far. Swap is just a bonus.
  • #434
  • Jun 1, 2007 1:41pm Jun 1, 2007 1:41pm
I've been reading some of this thread (though not all - it's too long) and I am falling on the floor laughing at the foolish trades that people such as amylase have made. The usd/cad has basically been going straight down for god knows how long... and I find, despite that FACT, that some people have still ACTUALLY been trying to go long????? Even worse, they CONTINUED to go long even though the loonie kept dropping! This is like someone standing in the middle of the highway in rush hour traffic, getting hit by a car, and then getting back up to stand in the highway again in "hope" that the next car will miss them. Just insane.

Yes, if you keep going long then some day you will be right. I just hope you are rich enough to make it to the point when you ARE "right".

amylase, I'm pulling for you on that long of the usd/cad! BWAAHAAHAAAA!!
"Trading is a mental sport." - Ziad Masri
  • #435
  • Jun 1, 2007 2:08pm Jun 1, 2007 2:08pm
Quoting Quickdraw
I've been reading some of this thread (though not all - it's too long) and I am falling on the floor laughing at the foolish trades that people such as amylase have made. The usd/cad has basically been going straight down for god knows how long... and I find, despite that FACT, that some people have still ACTUALLY been trying to go long????? Even worse, they CONTINUED to go long even though the loonie kept dropping! This is like someone standing in the middle of the highway in rush hour traffic, getting hit by a car, and then getting back up to stand in the highway again in "hope" that the next car will miss them. Just insane.

Yes, if you keep going long then some day you will be right. I just hope you are rich enough to make it to the point when you ARE "right".

amylase, I'm pulling for you on that long of the usd/cad! BWAAHAAHAAAA!!
"No way it can go on like this... i think it will stop now"

Attached Image
  • #436
  • Jun 1, 2007 2:16pm Jun 1, 2007 2:16pm
Great image Caesarnc.
  • #437
  • Jun 1, 2007 2:32pm Jun 1, 2007 2:32pm
Quoting cesarnc
SHORT TERM TREND?

It's going down for 5 years!!!!!!!!!!!!

Hey Buddy, I would prefer you did not shout at me. Re-read my post and get off your high horse. I stated that there will be a correction to this short term trend, (the one that started late March at around 1.19 or so) likely before the month of June is finished. If you look at a daily chart you will notice that this same move has happened once in 2004, once in 2005 and once in 2006. Each of those moves has been followed by a correction of at least 25%. I also stated that the correction would only be a couple hundred pips ... after that I stated there is no telling what it would do ... did you not read that?

In no way would I ever advise someone to trade against the CAD, I have been advising against it since I have been posting in this thread. I stated more than once to at least wait for all the ***/CAD pairs to show upward movement before taking a long position to catch the reversal. I have also been long CAD/JPY since November last year. From your earlier posts I know for certain that you have not been trading CAD all along ... so dont lecture me.

Please modify your post Cesarnc, read mine again before you do.
The market is my nation. Traders, my family. Hello, brothers and sisters!
  • #438
  • Jun 1, 2007 2:36pm Jun 1, 2007 2:36pm
I'm reading "there will be a correction" here since 0800...
  • #439
  • Jun 1, 2007 2:39pm Jun 1, 2007 2:39pm
cesarnc, great photo!

That usd/cad train you posted is what has flattened those who dared to stand in front of it!
"Trading is a mental sport." - Ziad Masri
  • #440
  • Jun 1, 2007 2:44pm Jun 1, 2007 2:44pm
Quoting cesarnc
I'm reading "there will be a correction" here since 0800...
Fair enough. We'll see what happens by last trading day of June. I am not a gambler and wont take a long position just because I think there will be a correction to this 1000 pip run. When I see it happen I will be trading it off my 4 hour chart ... as usual. As of now, long positions are not safe.
The market is my nation. Traders, my family. Hello, brothers and sisters!
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