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Alifari's Trading Journal

  • #1,061
  • Aug 15, 2023 12:59am Aug 15, 2023 12:59am
Hi Ali,
thanks for uploading file. I apperciate all your help.
Parvez
  • #1,062
  • Edited 11:46am Aug 15, 2023 11:36am | Edited 11:46am
Realistic - Risk vs Reward Chart

Do not get trapped in risk vs reward illusion. You can be profitable even with 1 to 1 R/R.


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The purpose of knowledge is action, not knowledge
  • #1,063
  • Aug 28, 2023 10:36am Aug 28, 2023 10:36am
Usdcad combination of d1 and m5 price action.

Risk vs reward potential was good.
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  • #1,064
  • Aug 28, 2023 10:52am Aug 28, 2023 10:52am
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  • #1,065
  • Aug 28, 2023 10:52am Aug 28, 2023 10:52am
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  • #1,066
  • Aug 28, 2023 10:58am Aug 28, 2023 10:58am
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  • #1,067
  • Aug 30, 2023 9:38am Aug 30, 2023 9:38am
How to actively manage a trade.

1) Entry at few pips below M15 Supply Zone
2) Stop loss couple of pips above Supply Zone
3) Take Profit around 1.5R which looks a reasonable demand zone within the overall structure
4) Two level of demand zone marked where I expect price to reverse
5) Once price broke 1st demand zone with conviction, moved my stop loss to -0.5R so my risk is now reduced.
6) Price reacted to 2nd demand zone and hit my stop loss
7) Final result -0.5R
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The purpose of knowledge is action, not knowledge
  • #1,068
  • Aug 31, 2023 11:50pm Aug 31, 2023 11:50pm
Hi Ali,
Make sense and thanks for sharing your thought process.
Yesterday I closed my short position, when I see strong bullish candle. I had 0.19 lot. I lost 0.5 R.
Next bar was reverse and hit my tp1 without me, I understand that it is a game of probability and this thing happens but I still regret to closed position.
Do you trade correlated pairs or you just pickup one good pair i.e eurjpy , gpbjpy or cadjpy (corrolated pairs) if they all give you long indication, will you take all or just pickup one?
Also, In Red Alert news, Do you closed your open position when red alert news occurs?
Parvez Issa
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  • #1,069
  • Sep 1, 2023 10:19am Sep 1, 2023 10:19am
Quoting parvezissa
Hi Ali, Make sense and thanks for sharing your thought process. Yesterday I closed my short position, when I see strong bullish candle. I had 0.19 lot. I lost 0.5 R. Next bar was reverse and hit my tp1 without me, I understand that it is a game of probability and this thing happens but I still regret to closed position. Do you trade correlated pairs or you just pickup one good pair i.e eurjpy , gpbjpy or cadjpy (corrolated pairs) if they all give you long indication, will you take all or just pickup one? Also, In Red Alert news, Do you closed your...
1) I think it was the right decision to reduce your risk to half. The zone from which price reversed was a historical swap zone, so I would have done the same. As long as our decision is rational and logical one, we should not regret it. I always think in terms of 100 or 200 trades, if I keep reducing my risk to half, will I be more profitable as compare to when I keep my stop loss and take profit unchanged. You can do this testing in Excel taking same trade with different scenarios and see for yourself which one is more suitable according to your strategy.

There are certain strategies which will give you 1R 80% of the time, but only 30% of the time it will reach 1.5R or 2R so it all depends on your strategy.

2) I only take one trade at a time for correlated pair. For example if I am in EURUSD, I will not take a trade in other Dollar Pair.

3) I usually close my trade few minutes before Major news events regardless if I am in profit or loss. We can always reenter trade after the dust is settled. There are plenty of opportunities in the market every day, so I am in no rush at all even if I miss a major move.

I hope above explanation is helpful.
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  • #1,070
  • Sep 2, 2023 5:52am Sep 2, 2023 5:52am
Inserted Video
The purpose of knowledge is action, not knowledge
  • #1,071
  • Sep 3, 2023 11:12pm Sep 3, 2023 11:12pm
Hi Ali
Thanks for response. Thinking in 100 trades perspective gives comfort specially when I trade 1 percent per trade.
I trade on daily and H4 time frame. But I realized that h4 time frame have great impact when high impact news occurs. Since my trade usually last 3 to 5 bars so I will makesure that high alert news does not come in my way.
It is a great lecture. I strongly belive in 10,000 hours theory to become master in any profession. There are no shortcuts. But he talk about decades of work.
He also talk about fear that holding us back.
Nice and small lecture.
Parvez Issa
  • #1,072
  • Sep 9, 2023 3:19am Sep 9, 2023 3:19am
Quoting parvezissa
Hi Ali Thanks for response. Thinking in 100 trades perspective gives comfort specially when I trade 1 percent per trade. I trade on daily and H4 time frame. But I realized that h4 time frame have great impact when high impact news occurs. Since my trade usually last 3 to 5 bars so I will makesure that high alert news does not come in my way. It is a great lecture. I strongly belive in 10,000 hours theory to become master in any profession. There are no shortcuts. But he talk about decades of work. He also talk about fear that holding us back. Nice...
1) High impact news usually occur 4 to 5 days a month, so you can either avoid trading during that time or reduce your risk accordingly. If I am in a trade and high impact news is due then I close my trades regardless, I am in profit or loss. As I have often noticed market provides better opportunities after news impact.

2) One thing I would like you to analyze is that the point where you are entering, how far is the first line of support or resistance (FLS/FLR). This is the level or zone where you would expect some opposing price action, so you should be aware and ready to take action if price reverse. The trade you posted earlier, I noticed that you sold right into a decent swap zone and as expected price reversed from that zone. Although it eventually reached your desired target, but it reversed enough to trap weak sellers forcing them to get out of trade.
The purpose of knowledge is action, not knowledge
  • #1,073
  • Edited 5:47am Sep 9, 2023 5:22am | Edited 5:47am
One of the main reason retail traders fail to make decent profit is due to fear of missing out (FOMO). Often we deliberately deviate from our plan, when we see price moving in our desired direction without us, so we enter trade on emotion rather than our trade plan and edge, which messes our R/R in long term.
This is how we should think in terms of FOMO.


"It's actually IMPOSSIBILE" to get FOMO once you realize the move is going to happen again in the future"
The purpose of knowledge is action, not knowledge
  • #1,074
  • Sep 9, 2023 6:00am Sep 9, 2023 6:00am
"In order to find solutions to problems, it is important to improve the quality of your thinking"

We often move our stop loss to breakeven once price reached 1R, when aiming for higher R, thinking that it's a free trade now and we cannot lose.

We should apply the same thinking, when price goes against us and narrowly miss our stop loss, at that stage we should be willing to close our trade to breakeven or even at a reduced loss of -0.25 or -0.5R instead of waiting for price to either hit our stop loss and taking a full 1R loss or hoping price would somehow reach our desired take profit.

In my case, I have noticed that majority of my winners comes where price instantly reacts to my entry level and giving me very low draw down. Once price breached my entry level and go deep down against me, often it hits my stop loss before hitting my take profit target, so whenever market gives me an opportunity to minimize my loss I take it without giving a second thought.
The purpose of knowledge is action, not knowledge
  • #1,075
  • Sep 10, 2023 5:11am Sep 10, 2023 5:11am
Hi Ali,
I do consider Red alert news in the Forex factory calendar to be high-impact news. Almost every day, there is one red alert news around 5 to 5:30 (khi time). Do you follow the same calendar if yes, why are you getting only 4 to 5 high-impact news? Could you help me to understand this?
I pondered last week about what to do to get stress-free trading so I decided to have only two open positions at any given time.
It was very helpful to be stress-free. I also did a small time frame testing h1,m30,m15, and m5 where 1R = 10usd,. this week my R for a small time frame would be 0.25% of the account balance.
This week, My frequency of trading was high due to trading small time frame but; I did have only 2 open positions at any given time.
Taking a partial loss (0.25 to 0.5), when marking is going against us, vs taking a full loss of 1R is something I need to improve on myself. I need to backtest my history and make a conclusion based on 100 trade history.
You already provided the guidance and awner but my history research will help me to create a mindset to act on taking a partial loss exit.
Do you put the mantle sl or hard sl?
Thanks
Parvez
  • #1,076
  • Sep 11, 2023 9:24am Sep 11, 2023 9:24am
Quoting parvezissa
Hi Ali, I do consider Red alert news in the Forex factory calendar to be high-impact news. Almost every day, there is one red alert news around 5 to 5:30 (khi time). Do you follow the same calendar if yes, why are you getting only 4 to 5 high-impact news? Could you help me to understand this? I pondered last week about what to do to get stress-free trading so I decided to have only two open positions at any given time. It was very helpful to be stress-free. I also did a small time frame testing h1,m30,m15, and m5 where 1R = 10usd,. this week my...
1) Not all red alert news have significant impact on price movements. You can do your own testing by checking last few months price movement after release of these red alert news events. I mainly give importance to US data and under current circumstances CPI, NFP, GDP & Interest Rate events are of importance. All other data is of less significance.

2) Back testing will provide you all the answers, as long as you are asking the right questions.

3) The best strategy are the one's which work on all time frames.

4) I always put hard stop loss at the time of entering my trade.
The purpose of knowledge is action, not knowledge
  • #1,077
  • Sep 12, 2023 8:03am Sep 12, 2023 8:03am
Hi Ali,
Thanks for the Red Alert news clarification. Today, There was a red alert news at 11 a.m. related to GBP currency. Even if it is a red alert but market behaves normally. I checked out the last 3 records of Claimant Count Change and no volatility occurs in high-impact news time. hence it is not high-impact news.

Parvez Issa
  • #1,078
  • Edited 9:44am Sep 12, 2023 9:31am | Edited 9:44am
Hi Parvez,

Here is a trade I took yesterday on GBPUSD. The sell order was triggered and price move in my direction instantly giving a 2 pips drawdown. Initial stop loss was 24 pips, once price moved in my direction and hit first line of support (previous high) I moved my stop loss to 5 pips. As such my risk was reduced from -1R to -0.21R. Now I have done my due diligence and no more action was required at my end. Either price will hit my stop loss or take profit. End result +1.50R.

At the time of entering this trade I was willing to take a 1R loss and after few minutes market gave me a chance to reduce my stop loss to half or quarter of my actual loss. How can I refuse that, as long as the decision is based on logic and not on emotion.

If we keep doing that, we will come ahead in the long run for sure.
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The purpose of knowledge is action, not knowledge
  • #1,079
  • Sep 13, 2023 10:48pm Sep 13, 2023 10:48pm
Hi Ali,
Thanks for sharing your thought process. It is helpful and strengthens my belief that making money in trading is possible.

Parvez
  • #1,080
  • Sep 14, 2023 9:33am Sep 14, 2023 9:33am
Quoting parvezissa
Hi Ali, Thanks for sharing your thought process. It is helpful and strengthens my belief that making money in trading is possible. Parvez
Hi Parvez,

You can share your charts here, if you have any questions. We can discuss and analyze it accordingly.
The purpose of knowledge is action, not knowledge
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