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A very simple system - trade with arrow

  • #10,601
  • Aug 31, 2023 9:24am Aug 31, 2023 9:24am
I think in general the NY session price action tends to disagree with the indicators. I've always had majority of my losses during this session simply because signals fail or DD is way more than expected. It's horrible actually, but especially in the days leading up to big news events like CPI, Inflation numbers, NFP, etc.

Any one else see this? I will see if there's any solutions, for example, stick to lower TF signals and shorten up targets may produce better results rather than entries on higher TF's like M30 as I've been making.
  • #10,602
  • Edited 11:52am Aug 31, 2023 9:53am | Edited 11:52am
I am also in dd with UCad. NY can be tricky but when it trends it does so beautifully
the cautious seldom err....C
  • #10,603
  • Aug 31, 2023 9:56am Aug 31, 2023 9:56am
price is reacting to the level I plotted on my chart
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDxM15.png Size: 38 KB
the cautious seldom err....C
  • #10,604
  • Aug 31, 2023 9:59am Aug 31, 2023 9:59am
price has done its adr and also reacting at R2
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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the cautious seldom err....C
  • #10,605
  • Aug 31, 2023 10:26am Aug 31, 2023 10:26am
many sexy legs on H1, I am tempted to go long
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDxH1.png Size: 34 KB
the cautious seldom err....C
  • #10,606
  • Aug 31, 2023 10:31am Aug 31, 2023 10:31am
looking left you will find 4 bearish candles, sure looks like it's not easy to climb much higher
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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the cautious seldom err....C
  • #10,607
  • Aug 31, 2023 10:41am Aug 31, 2023 10:41am
giving this a go with 1 lot..risky, so do not follow blindly
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDxH1.png Size: 35 KB
the cautious seldom err....C
  • #10,608
  • Aug 31, 2023 10:55am Aug 31, 2023 10:55am
Quoting pips29
giving this a go with 1 lot..risky, so do not follow blindly {image}
I've been long AUDUSD all NY session and it's been quite painful ! You're giving me a bit of hope seeing your trade decision though
  • #10,609
  • Aug 31, 2023 11:27am Aug 31, 2023 11:27am
Quoting jamesfreddyc
{quote} I've been long AUDUSD all NY session and it's been quite painful ! You're giving me a bit of hope seeing your trade decision though
The problem is sometimes what I did in the past come back to haunt. I spent more than a year trading supply and demand and learn from the thread known as "PIE" or "Price is Everything" by Red..As it is like picking top and bottom and doesn't work all the time and can be detrimental I decided back then to try something different and opted for a trend following method which also has its faults and weaknesses but it's less risky imo
the cautious seldom err....C
  • #10,610
  • Aug 31, 2023 11:54am Aug 31, 2023 11:54am
Quoting pips29
I am also in dd with UCad. NY can be tricky but when it trends it does so beautifully
forgot to mention I no longer have this trade
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADxM15.png Size: 39 KB
the cautious seldom err....C
  • #10,611
  • Aug 31, 2023 11:58am Aug 31, 2023 11:58am
once UCad weakens and falls your aussie trade will bring in the green pips, james
the cautious seldom err....C
  • #10,612
  • Aug 31, 2023 12:08pm Aug 31, 2023 12:08pm
Quoting pips29
once UCad weakens and falls your aussie trade will bring in the green pips, james
Losses are perfectly fine! I have simply never had good results in NY session for any indicators I have used but I think if I were to simply drop down to lower TF and shorten targets I would get much better outcomes. I entered this AUDUSD trade at around 8am M30 candle close:

It only went like 10pips with that entry point even though all of the indicators were suggesting a good entry. However, if I had dropped down to M5 chart I would have found a much better entry with double the amount of range I could have taken 20pips.

But holding thru NY session the price action is just ugly!
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  • #10,613
  • Aug 31, 2023 12:47pm Aug 31, 2023 12:47pm
Quoting jamesfreddyc
{quote} Losses are perfectly fine! I have simply never had good results in NY session for any indicators I have used but I think if I were to simply drop down to lower TF and shorten targets I would get much better outcomes. I entered this AUDUSD trade at around 8am M30 candle close: It only went like 10pips with that entry point even though all of the indicators were suggesting a good entry. However, if I had dropped down to M5 chart I would have found a much better entry with double the amount of range I could have taken 20pips. But holding thru...
I just want to point out that I set the pips indicator to 50 for all tf. I used to have the 2 htf set at 14 and the lower 2 at 50, but it's 50 for all. I know some of you use the 14 or a combination but it's 50 for me
the cautious seldom err....C
  • #10,614
  • Aug 31, 2023 12:55pm Aug 31, 2023 12:55pm
Quoting jamesfreddyc
{quote} Losses are perfectly fine! I have simply never had good results in NY session for any indicators I have used but I think if I were to simply drop down to lower TF and shorten targets I would get much better outcomes. I entered this AUDUSD trade at around 8am M30 candle close: It only went like 10pips with that entry point even though all of the indicators were suggesting a good entry. However, if I had dropped down to M5 chart I would have found a much better entry with double the amount of range I could have taken 20pips. But holding thru...
when using the ribbon which shows whether the 10 ema is above or below the 34 ema you actually went against the colour with your entry on M30..safer entries are when the entry is in line with the ribbon colour, the ribbon is just for visual purposes and easier to see which direction your entry should be more favourable. Of course you can go against it but it's better to start off on the right foot so to speak with the trend of your tf entry, just my few pennies
the cautious seldom err....C
  • #10,615
  • Aug 31, 2023 1:01pm Aug 31, 2023 1:01pm
as it's getting late in the day I am giving this another go but with 1 lot only
EDit: stop at b/e now
taken 1/2 out
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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the cautious seldom err....C
  • #10,616
  • Aug 31, 2023 1:16pm Aug 31, 2023 1:16pm
Quoting pips29
giving this a go with 1 lot..risky, so do not follow blindly {image}
tightening the stop to -3 for cable and logging off, bbl
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDxM1.png Size: 34 KB
the cautious seldom err....C
  • #10,617
  • Aug 31, 2023 1:21pm Aug 31, 2023 1:21pm
Quoting pips29
{quote} when using the ribbon which shows whether the 10 ema is above or below the 34 ema you actually went against the colour with your entry on M30..safer entries are when the entry is in line with the ribbon colour, the ribbon is just for visual purposes and easier to see which direction your entry should be more favourable. Of course you can go against it but it's better to start off on the right foot so to speak with the trend of your tf entry, just my few pennies
yes! At that time it was angling upwards and I was anticipating it to cross back bullish but I only did that because of the other oscillator indicator you see that is on top of the Pips29 indicator -- which it was at it's bottom range and providing bullish signal. I know that this is not part of your trading system, I'm keeping some of what I currently use and attempting to make it better with some of the components from your trading system!
  • #10,618
  • Aug 31, 2023 1:25pm Aug 31, 2023 1:25pm
Quoting pips29
{quote} I just want to point out that I set the pips indicator to 50 for all tf. I used to have the 2 htf set at 14 and the lower 2 at 50, but it's 50 for all. I know some of you use the 14 or a combination but it's 50 for me
Oh! Thank you for that. Do you mean all of the CCI periods to 50? (ie. cci_1=50, cci2=50, cci_3=50, cci_4=50) I looked on the first page of this thread but I must have missed that.

Thanks!
  • #10,619
  • Aug 31, 2023 2:39pm Aug 31, 2023 2:39pm
Quoting jamesfreddyc
{quote} Oh! Thank you for that. Do you mean all of the CCI periods to 50? (ie. cci_1=50, cci2=50, cci_3=50, cci_4=50) I looked on the first page of this thread but I must have missed that. Thanks!
Yes, that's correct. All of them are set to 50 on my charts
the cautious seldom err....C
  • #10,620
  • Sep 1, 2023 3:23am Sep 1, 2023 3:23am
I'm in a EY long
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYxM5.png Size: 34 KB
the cautious seldom err....C
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