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Harmonic Wave Journal

  • #361
  • May 30, 2007 2:07am May 30, 2007 2:07am
Just add to my GBP/USD Longs at 1.9782. But looks like a 5 wave move down now or Wave B of C. I'm trying to use the EUR/GBP pair and wave count it to trade the stronger pair. I'm thinking that EUR/GBP should top out at .6795-.9800 before heading down. This should help my GBP/USD long.

With USD/CHF not reaching the 1.2275 area I am waiting on EUR/USD,
Unless I see
I found the guy who keeps losing me money. Its "ME" SHOOT HIM!
  • #362
  • May 30, 2007 2:09am May 30, 2007 2:09am
Opportunity #G19/07 (re-entry)
GBP/USD Long
3 parts
Entry: 1.9766
Stop (initial): 1.9716

Subwave 5 up (?).

Update 1: Took 1st profit at 1.9825 (+15). S/L tightened to 1.9790 (guarantees -20). The downmove prolly isn't finished yet.
Update 2: Out at 1.9790 (-20 x2). Re-entry at 1.9766, initial stop at 1.9716.
Tra-X
  • #363
  • May 30, 2007 2:16am May 30, 2007 2:16am
Quoting AZ-Heat
Just add to my GBP/USD Longs at 1.9782. But looks like a 5 wave move down now or Wave B of C. I'm trying to use the EUR/GBP pair and wave count it to trade the stronger pair. I'm thinking that EUR/GBP should top out at .6795-.9800 before heading down. This should help my GBP/USD long.

With USD/CHF not reaching the 1.2275 area I am waiting on EUR/USD,
Unless I see
Good day, AZ-Heat. Yeah I think this Cable is abit scary, there's a pretty strong pull downwards by longer term technicals, but here we go, placing our bets again. All the best.
For EUR/GBP, I'm still thinking of it going to 0.6700 area next, before resuming its longterm uptrend. Let's see.
Tra-X
  • #364
  • May 30, 2007 2:52am May 30, 2007 2:52am
Yes, after this mornings topping .6795-.6800 I will be looking for
a minimum of .6738 to .6700. Then I also look for a good climb from there.
Hope we are both right!!!!!
I found the guy who keeps losing me money. Its "ME" SHOOT HIM!
  • #365
  • May 30, 2007 3:33am May 30, 2007 3:33am
Opportunity #G19/07 (re-entry)
GBP/USD Long
3 parts
Entry: 1.9766
Stop (initial): 1.9716

Subwave 5 up (?).

Update 1: Took 1st profit at 1.9825 (+15). S/L tightened to 1.9790 (guarantees -20). The downmove prolly isn't finished yet.
Update 2: Out at 1.9790 (-20 x2). Re-entry at 1.9766, initial stop at 1.9716.
Update 3: S/L tightened to 1.9760 (guarantees -6).
Tra-X
  • #366
  • May 30, 2007 4:21am May 30, 2007 4:21am
Opportunity #C3/07
USD/CAD Long
3 parts
Entry: 1.0738
Stop (initial): 1.0698

A trial trade using very small lot size. Won't be counted in journal. End of wave 3 down (from above 1.18).

Trial is over. Full blow at -120. What a test. Not the time to trade this pair yet. Too strong trending.
Tra-X
  • #367
  • May 30, 2007 5:09am May 30, 2007 5:09am
Quoting Traex
Opportunity #C3/07
USD/CAD Long
3 parts
Entry: 1.0738
Stop (initial): 1.0698

A trial trade using very small lot size. Won't be counted in journal. End of wave 3 down (from above 1.18).

Trial is over. Full blow at -120. What a test. Not the time to trade this pair yet. Too strong trending.
Oil price just too strong? If they want to export anything else they'll have to talk about interest cuts not possible rises.
  • #368
  • Edited 9:01am May 30, 2007 5:10am | Edited 9:01am
Opportunity #G19/07 (re-entry/2nd attempt)
GBP/USD Long
3 parts
Entry: 1.9752
Stop (initial): 1.9702

Subwave 5 up (?).

Update 1: Took 1st profit at 1.9825 (+15). S/L tightened to 1.9790 (guarantees -20). The downmove prolly isn't finished yet.
Update 2: Out at 1.9790 (-20 x2). Re-entry at 1.9766, initial stop at 1.9716.
Update 3: S/L tightened to 1.9760 (guarantees -6).
Update 4: Last attempt to long cable at 1.9752, initial stop at 1.9702. Previous attempt was stopped at 1.9760 (-6 x3).
Tra-X
  • #369
  • May 30, 2007 5:17am May 30, 2007 5:17am
OK, Well I alittle lost on my count now.
Cables at 1.9750 and getting to deep to remain
short term bullish. Lets see how it count out
I found the guy who keeps losing me money. Its "ME" SHOOT HIM!
  • #370
  • May 30, 2007 6:12am May 30, 2007 6:12am
Well USD/CHF reached 1.2275 and EUR/USD at 1.3417,
Thats what I was looking for in previous posts, But now
I'm just a BIG FAT CHICKEN. My miss count on GBP/USD
has me scared. Someone take one of my paddles and hit
me with it, that might help me find my gonads ( balls )http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif
I found the guy who keeps losing me money. Its "ME" SHOOT HIM!
  • #371
  • May 30, 2007 6:17am May 30, 2007 6:17am
Quoting Vantage
Oil price just too strong? If they want to export anything else they'll have to talk about interest cuts not possible rises.
It doesn't seem to follow oil price now. Oil hasn't broken record high again but this thing has broken far below last year's high. It's a pure trend push imo.
Tra-X
  • #372
  • May 30, 2007 6:23am May 30, 2007 6:23am
Quoting AZ-Heat
OK, Well I alittle lost on my count now.
Cables at 1.9750 and getting to deep to remain
short term bullish. Lets see how it count out
A 5-wave sequence from 1.9896 should be completed in cable by now. Whether it's a wave C down or a wave 1 down, it'll be decided later. More likely to be wave 1 tho, then the count is broken, yep.
Tra-X
  • #373
  • May 30, 2007 6:42am May 30, 2007 6:42am
I believe with China stamp tax and the indices down most of what we're seeing may be glued to the fate of the carry trades.

If 1.9730 goes for good in cable I'll be watching 1.9640-66, 1.9555 and 1.9433ish.
Possibly buyers around 1.9580+.
This seems to be turning ugly fast and maybe we've yet to see the real main push?
Will be interesting to see what happens if our EURUSD and GBPUSD lows go.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #374
  • May 30, 2007 7:01am May 30, 2007 7:01am
Opportunity #E14/07
EUR/USD Long
2 parts
Entry: 1.3434
Stop (initial): 1.3418

Mini mini wave 5 of mini wave 1 (?).

Update 1: Stopped out at 1.3418 (-16 x2). EUR/USD made a fresh low this month. Another count was broken.

Total gain: -32
Tra-X
  • #375
  • Edited May 31, 2007 12:28am May 30, 2007 9:00am | Edited May 31, 2007 12:28am
Opportunity #G19/07 (re-entry/2nd attempt)
GBP/USD Long
3 parts
Entry: 1.9752
Stop (initial): 1.9702

Subwave 5 up (?).

Update 1: Took 1st profit at 1.9825 (+15). S/L tightened to 1.9790 (guarantees -20). The downmove prolly isn't finished yet.
Update 2: Out at 1.9790 (-20 x2). Re-entry at 1.9766, initial stop at 1.9716.
Update 3: S/L tightened to 1.9760 (guarantees -6).
Update 4: Last attempt to long cable at 1.9752, initial stop at 1.9702. Previous attempt was stopped at 1.9760 (-6 x3).
Update 5: Took 1st profit at 1.9770 (+18). S/L tightened to 1.9735 (guarantees -17).
Update 6: S/L tightened to 1.9747 (guarantees -5).
Tra-X
  • #376
  • May 31, 2007 1:17am May 31, 2007 1:17am
Opportunity #G19/07 (re-entry/2nd attempt)
GBP/USD Long
3 parts
Entry: 1.9752
Stop (initial): 1.9702

Subwave 5 up (?).

Update 1: Took 1st profit at 1.9825 (+15). S/L tightened to 1.9790 (guarantees -20). The downmove prolly isn't finished yet.
Update 2: Out at 1.9790 (-20 x2). Re-entry at 1.9766, initial stop at 1.9716.
Update 3: S/L tightened to 1.9760 (guarantees -6).
Update 4: Last attempt to long cable at 1.9752, initial stop at 1.9702. Previous attempt was stopped at 1.9760 (-6 x3).
Update 5: Took 1st profit at 1.9770 (+18). S/L tightened to 1.9735 (guarantees -17).
Update 6: S/L tightened to 1.9747 (guarantees -5).
Update 7: Out at 1.9747 (-5 x2). I just realized this week is NFP week and today is the last day of May. Full of confusion/surprise around. Will see what will happen next. Cable might push up to 9800 first soon.

Total gain: -35
Tra-X
  • #377
  • May 31, 2007 10:22am May 31, 2007 10:22am
Opportunity #G20/07
GBP/USD Short
3 parts
Entry: 1.9816
Stop (initial): 1.9866

End of subwave 2 up (?). Also hit 50% fib retracement of subwave 1 (9896 - 9732).
Tra-X
  • #378
  • May 31, 2007 12:06pm May 31, 2007 12:06pm
Morning all,

Closed out my two longs at break even 1.9799 & 1.9782
Have one short that I opened at 1.9765 as alittle hedge for insurance.
Thinking that we might have a ride down if the current high stays.
Your right Traex, I forgot today was the last day of the month, and with
NFP tomorrow anything can happen. As I said, the Wave is a living thing and
changes, so has my count. I now think that todays high is Wave B and will be looking for the wave count down to confirm. The only hesitation I have is that the indicators I use to assist in my count are in the way over sold area,
especially EUR

As far as EUR/USD, this could be the end of Wave 2. The samething with USD/CHF. I like it better if wave 2s end during the Londen or US open . When they happen at the close I tend to second guess my count as time messes up the look of the count and I start wondering if its a Wave B. The good thing is that we always get the right answer after time goes by. The bad thing is that by then its already to late and I've miss the boat again.

Anyway, hope eveyone is on the right side tomorrow
to close the week on a good note. ( I on the down side )

AZ
I found the guy who keeps losing me money. Its "ME" SHOOT HIM!
  • #379
  • May 31, 2007 12:26pm May 31, 2007 12:26pm
Opportunity #G20/07
GBP/USD Short
3 parts
Entry: 1.9816
Stop (initial): 1.9866

End of subwave 2 up (?). Also hit 50% fib retracement of subwave 1 (9896 - 9732).

Update 1: Set TP1 at 1.9781 for +35. S/L will move to 1.9821 once TP1 is hit. What a volatile day today, up and down like crazy.
Tra-X
  • #380
  • May 31, 2007 12:37pm May 31, 2007 12:37pm
Quoting AZ-Heat
Morning all,

As far as EUR/USD, this could be the end of Wave 2. The samething with USD/CHF. I like it better if wave 2s end during the Londen or US open . When they happen at the close I tend to second guess my count as time messes up the look of the count and I start wondering if its a Wave B. The good thing is that we always get the right answer after time goes by. The bad thing is that by then its already to late and I've miss the boat again.

AZ
Hi AZ-Heat, I don't have any clear count on EUR/USD right now, its short term count is messed up. I'll prolly wait till NFP tomorrow. Could you please post a wave count chart or two to see what your count looks like?
Thanks for sharing your views, and have a good day (or night if you live in Asia).
Tra-X
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