Daily Market Analysis By FXOpen

BTC/USD Price Analysis: RSI Drops to Lowest Since March 2020



The last time this classic indicator dropped below the 20.0 level was in March 2020, when the world panicked due to the spread of the coronavirus.
The extremely low RSI values indicate an extremely oversold market — it was formed as a result of the collapse of the BTC/USD rate on August 17, the reasons for which are not clear. Among the versions are:

→ SpaceX's decision to sell bitcoins from its balance sheet;
→ high yields of US government bonds (10-year bonds are at a 14-year high);
→ the collapse of the Chinese developer Evergrande.
Be that as it may, the decline of RSI below the level of 20.0 should not be interpreted as a signal to open a long position, although there is evidence for this.

Bullish arguments:

→ a long lower shadow on yesterday's candle on the daily bitcoin price chart confirms the aggressiveness of the bulls defending the 25.6k level;
→ this level approximately coincides with the Fibo level at 0.38 for a rollback from the growth of A→B;
→ the bitcoin market may follow the stock market — after all, the S&P 500 is at the lower boundary of the rising channel, which operates in 2023.




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Commodity Currencies in Search of a Bottom, the Euro Resumes Its Decline



Problems in the Chinese economy and the unexpected decision of the People's Bank of China to cut the base interest rate put pressure on commodity currencies, as China is one of the main trading partners of Australia, Canada, and New Zealand. However, this week, we can observe a slowdown in the downward movement in USD/CAD, AUD/USD, and NZD/USD, which signals a possible start of corrective rollbacks.

AUD/USD

The AUD/USD currency pair found support just above 0.6300 last week and is currently trying to strengthen above 0.6400. There are no confirmed reversal combinations for bullish movements on higher time frames yet; the nearest area for an upward rollback is the range of 0.6500-0.6600. If bulls fail to strengthen above these marks, the resumption of the downward movement in the direction of 0.6300-0.6200 may occur.
As for fundamental analysis, today at 15:00 GMT+3, we are waiting for data on the number of building permits issued in the US in July; at 16:45 GMT+3, there will be data on the business activity index (PMI) in the service sector for August.




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Currencies in Tight Ranges ahead of Jackson Hole Symposium




Major currency pairs are trading near the previously reached extremes in anticipation of news from the US. The EUR/USD currency pair fell yesterday to 1.0800, but bounced back sharply, the GBP/USD pair tested support at 1.2600, but still remained above the alligator lines on the weekly timeframe, and USD/JPY is retesting the 145 figure. Apparently, investors and market participants are waiting for comments from the head of the Fed about the future monetary policy of the regulator. Tomorrow starts the annual symposium in Jackson Hole, where a report by Jerome Powell will be heard.

USD/JPY

In the US dollar/Japanese yen pair, the reversal bearish bar from August 17 near 145.60 worked out. At the moment, the downward pullback has encountered support at the Alligator lines. If the price holds above 145.00 for several trading sessions, a resumption of growth towards recent highs at 146.50 may occur. But a break of support at 145.00 may mean a deeper correction towards 143.00-141.00.
Today at 15:30 GMT+3 we are waiting for data on basic orders for durable goods in the US for July. Also at the same time, weekly figures on the number of applications for unemployment benefits will be released. Tomorrow early in the morning traders will pay attention to the core consumer price index (CPI) in Tokyo.




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The Price of WTI Oil Falls to August Minimum



As the chart shows, US Crude Oil fell below USD 78 yesterday for the first time since July 25. This was facilitated by:
→ fears of a crisis that could follow from the collapse of the Chinese property developer Evergrande;
→ alarming PMI data from different economies. Japan reported a contraction in manufacturing activity for the third month in a row. Business activity in the euro area also fell more than expected, especially in Germany. Business activity in the US in August approached the point of stagnation, while growth was the weakest since February.




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GBP/USD Bounces Back after Falling 1% in One Day



The publication of news on the UK PMI index yesterday signaled an acceleration of the downturn in business activity. The index value was 42.5 (values below 50 indicate a slowdown in the economy). This is the thirteenth consecutive reading of the index below 50, with readings below 42.5 last recorded during the height of the pandemic in the spring of 2020.

The first reaction to the news was a sharp drop in the GBP/USD rate, but by the end of the trading session, the rate recovered, which can be considered evidence of strong demand.
More bullish arguments are given by the analysis of the volumes of trading in futures for the British pound on the CME exchange:
→ the largest trading volumes for the year were recorded on June 13 (more than 240k contracts were traded at an average of about 100k per day). If you draw a horizontal level from the high of this candle at 1.262, you will see how it acts as support;
→ yesterday, extremely high volumes (more than 155k contracts) were recorded again on a candle with a long lower shadow. That is, high volumes, reflecting the activity of large players, may indicate the relevance of demand for the pound at a price of 1.262.




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Watch FXOpen's 21 - 25 August Weekly Market Wrap Video

Weekly Market Wrap With Gary Thomson: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NVDA SHARE PRICE RISES, WTI OIL GO MINIMUM

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1. EUR/USD: Price is forming a rebound from the support of 1.085
2. NVDA share price rises after positive report
3. The price of WTI oil falls to August minimum
4. GBP/USD bounces back after falling 1% in one day

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GBP/USD Struggles To Recover, USD/CAD Holds Support



GBP/USD is struggling to recover above 1.2665. USD/CAD is holding gains above 1.3560 and might start another increase.

Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD Analysis Today

1. The British Pound started a fresh decline from the 1.2720 resistance zone.
2. There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.2620 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen.
3. USD/CAD is correcting gains from the 1.3640 resistance zone.
4. There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.3585 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of GBP/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a fresh decline from the 1.2720 zone. The British Pound traded below the 1.2665 support to move into further a bearish zone against the US Dollar, as mentioned in the previous analysis.
The pair even traded below 1.2620 and the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the bulls appeared near the 1.2550 level. A low was formed near 1.2547 and the pair is now consolidating losses. There was a minor recovery above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2732 swing high to the 1.2547 low.

Immediate resistance on the upside is near a major bearish trend line at 1.2620 and the 50-hour simple moving average. The first major resistance on the GBP/USD chart is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2732 swing high to the 1.2547 low at 1.2665.
A close above the 1.2665 resistance might spark bullish moves. The next major resistance is near the 1.2720 level. Any more gains could lead the pair toward the 1.2800 resistance in the near term.
Initial support sits near 1.2550. The next major support sits at 1.2510 or 1.2500, below which there is a risk of another sharp decline. In the stated case, the pair could drop toward 1.2420.

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Disclaimer: This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

AUD/USD and NZD/USD Signal Downside Continuation



AUD/USD declined below the 0.6450 and 0.6430 support levels. NZD/USD is also moving lower and might trade below the 0.5900 zone.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis Today

 

1. The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline from well above the 0.6480 level against the US Dollar.
2. There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near 0.6430 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen.
3. NZD/USD declined heavily from the 0.5985 resistance zone.
4. There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support near 0.5945 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD at FXOpen.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of AUD/USD at FXOpen, the pair struggled to clear the 0.6500 zone. The Aussie Dollar started a fresh decline below the 0.6450 support against the US Dollar.

There was a break below a key bullish trend line with support near 0.6430. The pair even settled below 0.6430 and the 50-hour simple moving average. The pair is now showing bearish signs and trading near the last swing low at 0.6410.

On the downside, initial support is near the 1.236 Fib extension level of the upward move from the 0.6411 swing low to the 0.6490 high at 0.6390. If there is a downside break below 0.6390, the pair could extend its decline.
The next support could be the 1.618 Fib extension level of the upward move from the 0.6411 swing low to the 0.6490 high at 0.6365. Any more losses might send the pair toward the 0.6320 support.

On the upside, an immediate resistance is near 0.6430. The next major resistance is near the 50-hour simple moving average at 0.6450, above which the price could rise toward 0.6490. Any more gains might send the pair toward 0.6550.
A close above the 0.6550 level could start another steady increase in the near term. The next major resistance on the AUD/USD chart could be 0.6620.

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USD/JPY Rate Updates the High of the Year



Yesterday, USD/JPY hit 146.74 for the first time since November 2022. The rise in the rate is facilitated by the growing gap in the policies of central banks: while the Bank of Japan has kept the rate below zero since 2016, the Fed has been raising rates since the spring of 2022.
Moreover, on Friday, Powell said the Fed is ready to continue to remain tough in the fight against inflation. According to CME's FedWatch tool, there is now a 62% chance of a rate hike at the Fed's November meeting, up from 42% a week earlier.
However, the limiting factor for the USD/JPY rate is the power of the Japanese Ministry of Finance. Last year, when the market was at current levels, the authorities intervened in the foreign exchange market, lowering the rate to 140 yen per US dollar.

The USD/JPY chart shows that:
→ the price con tinues to move within the ascending channel;
→ on Friday, during Powell's speech, the median line was tested, confirming its influence as a support;
→ former resistance at 144.8 also provides support;
→ if the trend continues, the rate may reach the upper limit of the channel — that is, the psychological mark of 150 yen per US dollar.



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When Will the Rate Hikes Stop? The Fed Ploughs on at Jackson Hole Despite Economic Progress



The United States Federal Reserve's consistent dialogue regarding interest rate increases has captured the attention of economists, policymakers, and financial markets worldwide.
Against the backdrop of a US economy that has shown remarkable resilience over the past two years, discussions surrounding interest rates have become a focal point of speculation and analysis. This article delves into the factors driving the Federal Reserve's decisions, the global context, and the implications for the US Dollar.

Steady US Economy and Debt Dynamics
The US economy's performance over the past two years has been characterised by steady growth and surprising resilience, given the substantial national debt that the country holds. Despite occasional fluctuations and challenges, the overall trajectory has been positive. The ability of the US economy to maintain its stability can be attributed to factors such as robust consumer spending, a strong labour market, and the government's targeted fiscal policies.

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Bitcoin Trading Volumes Fell to a Minimum of 4 Years



CNBC, citing CryptoQuant agency, reports that:

→ the total volume of bitcoins held on all cryptocurrency exchanges is at its lowest level since 2019;
→ as of August 26, the volume of bitcoin trading on all exchanges was about 130k BTC;
→ a maximum of 3.5 million BTC were traded in 1 day.
Perhaps the decrease in trading volumes is due to a drop in interest due to the uncertainty with the regulation of cryptocurrencies, or the fading of the bullish trend that began from the early days of 2023.
According to JP Morgan analysts, a decrease in open interest may indicate that the price of bitcoin is near a significant low, but the BTC/USD chart suggests that the bearish trend may continue. This is indicated by the descending channel, the outlines of which are becoming clearer.




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European Currencies Hit New Lows, Precious Metals on the Rise



European currencies, along with the yen and commodity currencies, came under pressure again last week. After Jerome Powell's hawkish talk at the Jackson Hole symposium, GBP/USD fell below 1.2600, EUR/USD broke support at 1.0800, and USD/JPY came close to 2023 extremes near 147. In the event of a breakout of these levels, the upward movement of the USD may increase sharply, which will lead to exponential growth. Conversely, a rebound from current levels could lead to a full-blown correction in almost all directions.

GBP/USD

The British currency, which is sensitive to the risky mood of market participants, broke through important support at 1.2600 last week and set a new August low at 1.2540. Jerome Powell's statements about the Fed's readiness to further raise the rate, if necessary, sharply strengthened the dollar, contributing to the collapse of GBP/USD. Nevertheless, at the beginning of the current five-day trading period, buyers of the pound managed to return the pair above 1.2600 and at the moment they intend to test 1.2700. If bulls meet serious resistance near the range of 1.2600-1.2700, another downward impulse may occur, the target of which will be a test of 1.2400-1.2200. If the pair gains a foothold above 1.2700, the resumption of growth to 1.3000-1.3100 may happen.

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EUR/USD Accelerates Gains from 2.5-month Low



This was facilitated by disappointing data on the US labor market. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the number of new vacancies has fallen sharply: actual — 8.8 million, forecast — 9.4 million new vacancies. The last time the value of the indicator fell below 9 million was in the spring of 2021.
The news came as a big surprise, which sent the dollar index down sharply. Accordingly, USD-denominated shares and gold rose, as well as exchange rates traded against the dollar.




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EUR/USD Starts Recovery, USD/CHF Dips Below Support



EUR/USD started a recovery wave above the 1.0830 resistance. USD/CHF is showing bearish signs below the 0.8830 resistance zone.

Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/CHF Analysis Today

1. The Euro gained pace after it broke the 1.0830 resistance against the US Dollar.
2. There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near 1.0800 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen.
3. USD/CHF is consolidating losses below the 0.8810 resistance.
4. There was a break below a contracting triangle with support near 0.8830 on the hourly chart at FXOpen.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of EUR/USD at FXOpen, the pair started a recovery wave from the 1.0770 level. The Euro even cleared the 1.0800 barrier to move into a bullish zone against the US Dollar.
Besides, there was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near 1.0800. It opened the doors for a move above the 50-hour simple moving average and 1.0830. Finally, the pair tested the 1.0880 resistance.

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FTSE 100 Goes on Massive Rebound! Marks & Spencer's Resurgence Sparks Optimism



The FTSE 100 index, a prominent benchmark of the UK stock market, has witnessed a remarkable turnaround in recent days. After a month-long decline that saw the index drop from 7,700 points on July 31 to as low as 7,262 points by mid-August, a sudden shift has propelled it to its highest point in five days, exceeding 7,503 points. This article employs technical analysis to dissect the factors contributing to this rebound and highlights the potential impact of Marks & Spencer's resurgence on the FTSE 100's performance.

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The US Dollar Is Correcting in Anticipation of US GDP Data Publication



The sharp strengthening of the American currency was replaced by a no less sharp corrective rollback. But whether this will be the beginning of a full-scale correction, we will see after the publication of important data for this week. In the coming trading sessions, the US GDP for the Q2, ADP Employment Change, as well as the NBS Non-manufacturing PMI in China will be released. These macroeconomic data are very important for market participants and can both reinforce existing trends and contribute to a reversal.

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BTC/USD Analysis: Bulls Lose Progress Amid SEC Defeat



On Tuesday, the price of bitcoin rose sharply from around USD 26,000 to USD 28,000 per coin. This was due to a ruling by the US District of Columbia Court of Appeals that said the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) was wrong to reject Grayscale's application to convert its Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into a BTC Spot Exchange-traded Fund (ETF). A spot ETF would allow investors to access the leading cryptocurrency without actually holding BTC.

The SEC has repeatedly rejected Bitcoin spot ETF applications in the past, citing market manipulation concerns. But the court said the SEC failed to adequately explain its refusal to grant Grayscale's ETF bid, to the delight of the cryptocurrency community.




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The Price of Gold Rose by 3% in 10 Days



Back on August 21, gold was trading below USD 1,890 an ounce, but to date, its price has risen by about 3%. This was helped by published data on the number of vacancies in the US, which fell to the lowest level in almost 2.5 years in July. This and other signals of a slowdown in the US economy may influence the Fed's decision to continue raising interest rates further, which weakens the US dollar and supports the price of gold.

Bullish arguments:
→ the psychological barrier of USD 1,900 serves as an important support. The price of gold was there for only a few days, after which a steady increase followed.
→ The USD 1,920 resistance level was taken under control by the bulls after the breakdown on August 28-29. Now we can expect that there will be support here.
→ If a moderate decline on low volumes follows in the coming days, this will be a sign of a normal correction in a bull market




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Gold Price and Crude Oil Price Turn Green



Gold price is showing positive signs above the $1,925 pivot level. Crude oil price is rising and it could climb further higher toward the $85 resistance.
Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Prices Analysis Today

 

1. Gold price started a fresh increase above $1,920 and $1,925 against the US Dollar.
2. A key bullish trend line is forming with support at $1,932 on the hourly chart of gold at FXOpen.
3. Crude oil prices are also moving higher above the $82.00 resistance zone.
4. There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support near $82.80 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.

Gold Price Technical Analysis

On the hourly chart of Gold at FXOpen, the price started a fresh increase from the $1,900 zone. The price was able to clear the $1,925 resistance to move into a bullish zone.

There was a steady increase above the 50-hour simple moving average. Finally, the bears appeared near $1,950. The price is now correcting gains below the $1,942 level and the 50-hour simple moving average.

The RSI is back below 50 and the price is testing the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,903 swing low to the $1,950 high. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support at $1,932.

If the bulls remain active, the price could start a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the 50-hour simple moving average at $1,942. The next major resistance is near the $1,950 level. An upside break above the $1,950 resistance could send Gold price toward $1,965. Any more gains may perhaps set the pace for an increase toward the $1,980 level.

Initial support on the downside is near the $1,938 level. The first major support is near the trend line at $1,932. The main support is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,903 swing low to the $1,950 high at $1,925.

If there is a downside break below the $1,925 support, the price might decline further. In the stated case, the price might drop toward the $1,905 support.

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USD/CNH Falls Amid Chinese Economic Stimulus



Since January, the Chinese yuan has weakened more than 9% against the US dollar due to problems in the Chinese economy, as evidenced by statistics, as well as the bankruptcy of the developer Evergrande.

And today, the People's Bank of China announced that it will reduce the required foreign exchange reserve ratio to 4% from 6%, starting September 15. The move is seen as aimed at slowing down the yuan's fall.

Also, 5 major banks in China are cutting mortgage rates, possibly to reduce the risks of Country Garden going bankrupt.

According to analysts reported by Reuters, the measures taken may be only a temporary solution, but will lead to an increase in problems in the long term.




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