USD/YEN pair usually drops around this time. WhY? | Forex Factory

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USD/YEN pair usually drops around this time. WhY?

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited 12:06pm May 22, 2007 11:16am | Edited 12:06pm
I was looking back 4 years ago to 2002 on the USD/YEN pair.

I noticed basically every time this year, price takes a major hit.
Sometimes 200 pips, sometimes 400-500 pips. Even saw 800 drop!


Is there any explanation on why May-June price takes a serious dip?
Is it the summer and everyone is fed well on the interest and gone on vacation?

Right now, we have cautious/conservative buys now TP at 122.

However, we have quite a few Buylimits set with sells stops going down from 120s to 118s.


Any comments, answers or reference is greatly appreciated!
  • #2
  • May 22, 2007 12:13pm May 22, 2007 12:13pm
One word. Belief.
  • #3
  • May 22, 2007 1:16pm May 22, 2007 1:16pm
Quoting Stuartesque
One word. Belief.


Believe in what? I was looking for a lil more concrete answer than belief.

Reason such as summer time, traders pack it in.
or
Production changed
or
Economay change for summer

etc....


but thanks anyway.
  • #4
  • May 22, 2007 3:12pm May 22, 2007 3:12pm
Lol not really sure, wouldn't mind knowing myself, it does seem rather regular in the april to june area. Maybe oil or something like that, it is the beginning of the peak season for the US. Couldn't really tell you for sure though.
  • #5
  • May 22, 2007 3:22pm May 22, 2007 3:22pm
It may correlate with the "sell in May and go away" strategy. If you don't know what that is, google it up.
  • #6
  • May 22, 2007 8:05pm May 22, 2007 8:05pm
Quoting ronaldy
It may correlate with the "sell in May and go away" strategy. If you don't know what that is, google it up.

I would definately take a look on it.

If anyone has any input, please feel free !!!!!!!!!! thanks
  • #7
  • May 26, 2007 11:58pm May 26, 2007 11:58pm
Read this article about seasonal Yen.
http://www.actionforex.com/index.php...339&Itemid=271
  • #8
  • May 27, 2007 1:22am May 27, 2007 1:22am
check out this thread....

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=22896
Relax and be happy.
  • #9
  • Edited 1:44am May 27, 2007 1:32am | Edited 1:44am
Quoting banzai
Read this article about seasonal Yen.
http://www.actionforex.com/index.php...339&Itemid=271
Didn't really see a clear explanation why, but that's mighty helpful info to know, thanks Banzai.

Quoting merlin
check out this thread....

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=22896
Thanks Merlin, that did shed some light on why.
  • #10
  • May 27, 2007 2:25am May 27, 2007 2:25am
Quoting merlin
check out this thread...
Thank you very much, Merlin.

This topic is very interesting because I have never thought about seasonal influence.
Basically, we Japanese trade yen-selling, dollar-buying(foreign currency-buying) due to the lowest interest rates of yen.
In Japan, each public employee gets the money in a form of a bonus on the last day of June. (Besides, Toyota Motors' employees will receive bonus payments at the beginning of July) Let's count on summer bonus! I am going to put my bonus money in the bank and save it for unforeseeable circumstances though.

Japanese working people seem in no hurry to take a long vacation, it is a week of each at most. New Year holidays from December 28th to January 3rd, Golden Week from April 29th to May 5th, and Obon(lantern)festival from August 13th to 16th.
Peace and Happiness through Prosperity (by Konosuke Matsushita)
  • #11
  • May 27, 2007 6:59pm May 27, 2007 6:59pm
Use your trading system to determine when the usd/jpy will make a turn to head low. based in my trading system i see the usd/jpy heading lower by wednesday next week. i dont believe the usd will make it pass the 122. mark. without retracing. sunday at about 8 pm i see a developing double top formation being created. so if it was up to me i would plug the next order

sell at 121.75
tp 121.00
tp2 120.50
tp3 120.00 or lower.

protect your order at 122.18
DISCIPLINE IS THE KEY TO SUCCESS!!!:nerd:
  • #12
  • May 27, 2007 8:41pm May 27, 2007 8:41pm
I´m new, and as my name says I´m a pupil in forex, a kid pupil. My apologises for some mistake when I write, my english isn´nt so good, but I´m trying to write and to learn, and I`m greatful to this forum, that I´m leraning very much here.
I would like to ask what time frame are you using? I have 4 hours and I only see now to forming a doble bottom now after this dip abou 10 pips. What indicators are you using? I´m using stochastic (15,3,3) and MACD (5,13,1) with MA 50/100/21, if you can say.
Thank you for your answer.
  • #13
  • May 28, 2007 7:47am May 28, 2007 7:47am
Quoting got pips?
Use your trading system to determine when the usd/jpy will make a turn to head low. based in my trading system i see the usd/jpy heading lower by wednesday next week. i dont believe the usd will make it pass the 122. mark. without retracing. sunday at about 8 pm i see a developing double top formation being created. so if it was up to me i would plug the next order

sell at 121.75
tp 121.00
tp2 120.50
tp3 120.00 or lower.

protect your order at 122.18
I agree with u... I´m going long today and i thinking in close the trade in 122 and open a short position...

Sory for my poor english
  • #14
  • May 28, 2007 9:44am May 28, 2007 9:44am
Quoting got pips?
Use your trading system to determine when the usd/jpy will make a turn to head low. based in my trading system i see the usd/jpy heading lower by wednesday next week. i dont believe the usd will make it pass the 122. mark. without retracing. sunday at about 8 pm i see a developing double top formation being created. so if it was up to me i would plug the next order

sell at 121.75
tp 121.00
tp2 120.50
tp3 120.00 or lower.

protect your order at 122.18

Interesting...

So sell now and wait for the big drop.. or perhaps, sell and have another selll at higher prices???
  • #15
  • Last Post: May 30, 2007 1:01pm May 30, 2007 1:01pm
Price in the USD/Yen finally showing signs, but even after the stamp rate tax increase (triple). There still is no sell-off.

This is just weird, is this Consumer sentiment thats keeping this thing from tanking down 200 pips or so?
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