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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #5,121
  • May 30, 2007 9:31am May 30, 2007 9:31am
Ive also gone long at 240.23 with stop at 239.93

targeting around 241 area

We both cant be wrong can we?
  • #5,122
  • May 30, 2007 9:35am May 30, 2007 9:35am
Quoting el_duende
Ive also gone long at 240.23 with stop at 239.93

targeting around 241 area

We both cant be wrong can we?

thats the reason why i was asking everybody if they are going short, but it seems that everybody is going long on this pair. looking at the dailies its saying to go short, if you look at that time frame. anybody else care to elaborate on this. also look at the 4h chart. its approaching the 89ma. now it might bounce back up after it hits it or just above it. and also your going agains the trend.
  • #5,123
  • May 30, 2007 9:54am May 30, 2007 9:54am
Quoting treadline
thats the reason why i was asking everybody if they are going short, but it seems that everybody is going long on this pair. looking at the dailies its saying to go short, if you look at that time frame. anybody else care to elaborate on this. also look at the 4h chart. its approaching the 89ma. now it might bounce back up after it hits it or just above it. and also your going agains the trend.

We are in an interesting area at present - just above the 78.6 fib line on the hourlies ( drawn from low to high on 25th May). We could go either way here so scalping is the way for now as the opportunities are there. If we drop I can see us at 239.50 in no time !
  • #5,124
  • May 30, 2007 9:54am May 30, 2007 9:54am
I agree in the bigger time frames such as 4 hour it points down.

However on my 1 hour chart I have I had some indicators saying buy so I did. (Mainly to try and grab a nice retrace)

The China thing hasnt had the big impact I thought it might, also DOW and S&p are recovering.

Its a bit risky
  • #5,125
  • May 30, 2007 9:56am May 30, 2007 9:56am
can anyone tell me if GY touched the 241.20 level in the last hours? I cant see charts now..and also, where is it in the present? thanx a lot.
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #5,126
  • May 30, 2007 9:57am May 30, 2007 9:57am
the 89ma is at the 239.65 level. its getting close to that now. so watch closely.
  • #5,127
  • May 30, 2007 10:01am May 30, 2007 10:01am
Quoting el_duende
I agree in the bigger time frames such as 4 hour it points down.

However on my 1 hour chart I have I had some indicators saying buy so I did. (Mainly to try and grab a nice retrace)

The China thing hasnt had the big impact I thought it might, also DOW and S&p are recovering.

Its a bit risky
How are those stops buddy !
  • #5,128
  • May 30, 2007 10:06am May 30, 2007 10:06am
Didnt quite go to plan that risky trade

Bizarrely 1 trade was stopped out but 1 still open, 0.4 pip difference in stops looks like the cause! .

edit - Ive just checked metatrader and their price is 6/7pips different than oandas price feed.
  • #5,129
  • May 30, 2007 10:10am May 30, 2007 10:10am
what i tell ya its going down now big time. approaching 89ma now. i think it will test this level. watch it if it passes it then the next level will be the 200ma. but it could bounce at the 89 level. now on the 1h chart it just approach the 365ma. looking for a bounce off of that one.
  • #5,130
  • May 30, 2007 10:14am May 30, 2007 10:14am
You were right, must resist urge to trade of smaller timeframes!

Im now dead, all trades stopped out already
  • #5,131
  • May 30, 2007 10:18am May 30, 2007 10:18am
Quoting el_duende
You were right, must resist urge to trade of smaller timeframes!

Im now dead, all trades stopped out already

smaller TF are fine if you look at the over all TF. most importantly is the 4h TF. look at that then compare it to the 1h TF. also you should have ma's drawn out to see the s/r so can gauge the retracements.
  • #5,132
  • May 30, 2007 10:22am May 30, 2007 10:22am
I follow the 4 hour normally on all the pairs. I go on to 1 hour to try and pick better entries/exits. This time I just tried to be too clever and it backfired!

What MA's do you use? Do you apply the same MA's to all currency pairs/timeframes?
  • #5,133
  • May 30, 2007 10:31am May 30, 2007 10:31am
Quoting el_duende
I follow the 4 hour normally on all the pairs. I go on to 1 hour to try and pick better entries/exits. This time I just tried to be too clever and it backfired!

What MA's do you use? Do you apply the same MA's to all currency pairs/timeframes?

yes all the ones i look at normaly are the yen crosses and the e/u. i dont look at any other pairs as some of them the spread is too much, but with the exception of the g/y. i like to go 4pips or less. better roi. i just look at g/y for some confermation to other yen crosses as it mimics them.
  • #5,134
  • Edited 10:47am May 30, 2007 10:34am | Edited 10:47am
i think its safe to say that it could be on an uptrend now but who knows. just watch the ma's and you will be safe. maybe its not safe as i though it was.
  • #5,135
  • May 30, 2007 10:38am May 30, 2007 10:38am
i have sold in 239,97....stops at 240,50.
Sorry about my english...
  • #5,136
  • May 30, 2007 10:47am May 30, 2007 10:47am
All my indicators say to go short. This pair is always volatile but I have set my sights on 239.19. SL 240.49.

GBP set for a fall over next few days.
Gone to a better place
  • #5,137
  • May 30, 2007 10:49am May 30, 2007 10:49am
watch for the test at 200ma. its approaching the 89ma now so it could go lower.
  • #5,138
  • May 30, 2007 10:51am May 30, 2007 10:51am
Decent dojo on the 30 min off the 2400 range (possibly forming on the 1h), which is also close the the 4h trendline up (249.70 range), still seems to have some downward momentum. Possible long position if it forms, but still on my toes about fundamentals. So taking the wait and see approach for now. If it makes a significant breach the trendline I'll likely go short.
  • #5,139
  • May 30, 2007 11:26am May 30, 2007 11:26am
Quoting shadeslay
Decent dojo on the 30 min off the 2400 range (possibly forming on the 1h), which is also close the the 4h trendline up (249.70 range), still seems to have some downward momentum. Possible long position if it forms, but still on my toes about fundamentals. So taking the wait and see approach for now. If it makes a significant breach the trendline I'll likely go short.
I believe they always land on their feet? I'm looking more at the daily to confirm my view. A weakening trend on 89ma... But now seems to be - infuriatingly - consolidating on the trend line you mentioned.
Gone to a better place
  • #5,140
  • May 30, 2007 11:40am May 30, 2007 11:40am
I dont think we can get any clue on the direction until next week.
Although, i do expect JPY becomes stronger and more volatile... since FEB's retracement.

Many people still think chinese market bubbling was the only reason behind FEB's movement. and ignored the fact GOB raised their standard interest rate and LIB rate in JAN (Monetary MARKET takes normally 1.5 months to assimilate policy change factors)

anyway, i think we will see more swing trades opportunities in this pair from now
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