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The Swamp

  • #111,481
  • Edited 8:20am Aug 17, 2023 8:09am | Edited 8:20am
The residual R next is 0951.9.. It may offer a fly ball. that later may sink below 0998 and deeper.. Above 0951.9 has other R at 0955 and 0960.. If it slips past 0951.x These may stop it..
0898 can support. If reached 0862 day trend enr support. It reached 0878 qpp. A bounce to 0851.9 may not capture it.. But its the next place to look. Its a little above adr 0935. About 120% of adr.
Strong trend endings may provide a strong temp reject. That day trend at 0862 is still valid. It is in a up trend.
To kill the uptrend.. You need a close below it.. The mid year pp support too at 0827 and 0835..

Dont rule out 0980 or 1044 until you kill that day bull.. Next test should be 0951.9ish
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #111,482
  • Aug 17, 2023 8:09am Aug 17, 2023 8:09am
H1 downtrend stop at 1.0920. lets see bulls can reverse the H1 trend,
Today range high 1.0935
  • #111,483
  • Aug 17, 2023 8:30am Aug 17, 2023 8:30am
Tomorrow option exry..
If bulls can reverse H1 trend at 1.0920 today, 1.10 strike price may have magnetic pull tomorrow..otherwise, we will be stuck here 1.09 low range..
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  • #111,484
  • Aug 17, 2023 8:55am Aug 17, 2023 8:55am
Quoting Boulder
Tomorrow option exry.. If bulls can reverse H1 trend at 1.0920 today, 1.10 strike price may have magnetic pull tomorrow..otherwise, we will be stuck here 1.09 low range.. {image}
if today closes above 0898 or 0952.. those rise odds improve.. If tomorrow is below 0898 drop odds to 0878 0862 0835 0827 increase.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #111,485
  • Aug 17, 2023 9:01am Aug 17, 2023 9:01am
beat these..
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #111,486
  • Aug 17, 2023 9:15am Aug 17, 2023 9:15am
Quoting Boulder
Tomorrow option exry.. If bulls can reverse H1 trend at 1.0920 today, 1.10 strike price may have magnetic pull tomorrow..otherwise, we will be stuck here 1.09 low range.. {image}
If you are correct about 1.1.. A rise to 0951 rejected back to 092x may be a buy.. Clue 1 may be 0898 holding close support. Today closing above 0920 could be clue 2. both of these would point to a test at 0951.9.. 1.0951 can be R. So it may force pa back to 0920ish. That's a adr away from 1.1.. Fridays may attempt 1.1 . If it can get above 1.0951.. and 0980// The old residual R at 1004.. 1044 is fresher and stronger
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #111,487
  • Aug 17, 2023 9:40am Aug 17, 2023 9:40am
pa below, closing below 0898 is st bear.. Tp fit adr and 1.1.. Today may close above 1.0920. That has not happened. I set pendings to sell 0951. It dont have to go there today. adr is 0935.. If it runs there, It has a chance to close 0920+. What it does between is not part of this. The last 4h and 8h did close above 0898. That dont mean it will continue. Price was unable so far to break 0862 support.. That puts average daily range above at 0935.. It has all day to try it, or break below 0862.. I will not be surprised to see bulls push it closer to 0935.. It may bounce 0883.7ishj
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #111,488
  • Aug 17, 2023 10:52am Aug 17, 2023 10:52am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} 8/17 Thur trading levels 1.0956 1.0932 1.0917 1.0893 = PP 1.0869 1.0854 1.0830 1.0893 printed , Next to print 1.0917 or 1.0854

8/17 Thur trading levels

1.0956
1.0932
1.0917

1.0893 = PP

1.0869
1.0854
1.0830

1.0917 printed , Next to print 1.0854 or 1.0932
  • #111,489
  • Aug 17, 2023 12:34pm Aug 17, 2023 12:34pm
Just a observation. In the news reports I'm seeing about the Maui fire . I dont see a lot of parents talking about missing young children. The schools were closed. Meaning the children were home. Not seeing many parents on the news. May be because the parents are missing too. A local women reported many of the parents had 2 and 3 jobs. Meaning many of the children were home alone. The observation I have is the parents at work, and the children at home. May have been caught in the fire. If the parents are gone. Their voice to report missing children is gone. The amount missing may be underreported. A local group i donate to is on the scene.
https://www.cajunnavyrelief.com/
My heart goes out to these people. I have been their a few times. They are very good people. A beautiful place.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #111,490
  • Aug 17, 2023 12:40pm Aug 17, 2023 12:40pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} 8/17 Thur trading levels 1.0956 1.0932 1.0917 1.0893 = PP 1.0869 1.0854 1.0830 1.0917 printed , Next to print 1.0854 or 1.0932
back at 0862.. Will it hold or not?. If it holds.. 1 adr is 80 pips.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #111,491
  • Aug 17, 2023 1:32pm Aug 17, 2023 1:32pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} if today closes above 0898 or 0952.. those rise odds improve.. If tomorrow is below 0898 drop odds to 0878 0862 0835 0827 increase.
Closing below these today, may point to tomorrow
ATM it looks like 0835 or 0827 may test this week.. It may encourage another bounce.. But eventually I expect pa to drop deeper.. Below these levels. In the mean time.. It may run back to 0898 0942/51. At some point these R's wont be reached. A LL will come..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #111,492
  • Edited 8:09pm Aug 17, 2023 7:58pm | Edited 8:09pm
I would think 0889 is average.. I will try to short 0898.
Upper adr `is higher than yesterdays 0935 miss (0839 atm)
Lower adr 0817 atm... thats using curren H/L.. They both change with a new H/L today
I dont know, but think 0898 has some R
Daily adr has shrunk from 80 to 75
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #111,493
  • Aug 17, 2023 8:12pm Aug 17, 2023 8:12pm
Quoting gatorinla
I would think 0889 is average.. I will try to short 0898. Upper adr `is higher than yesterdays 0935 miss (0839 atm) Lower adr 0817 atm... thats using curren H/L.. They both change with a new H/L today I dont know, but think 0898 has some R Daily adr has shrunk from 80 to 75
0889 ls about 37 pips of adr. More than 1/2 of 75 pips. I may regret not shorting 0889. Because pa is in a downtrend. I opted for the R at 0898..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #111,494
  • Aug 17, 2023 8:33pm Aug 17, 2023 8:33pm
8/17 Friday trading levels

1.0942
1.0919
1.0904

1.0880 - PP

1.0857
1.0842
1.0919

next to print 1.0904 or 1.0857
  • #111,495
  • Aug 17, 2023 9:06pm Aug 17, 2023 9:06pm
I dont know why it's been nigh impossible to hit 1.0850. Tired of waiting for it.
  • #111,496
  • Aug 18, 2023 3:13am Aug 18, 2023 3:13am
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I am who I am
  • #111,497
  • Edited 3:58am Aug 18, 2023 3:46am | Edited 3:58am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 0889 ls about 37 pips of adr. More than 1/2 of 75 pips. I may regret not shorting 0889. Because pa is in a downtrend. I opted for the R at 0898..
Yep. I may regret.
I have a reason that may be wrong. I like to short R. Later I may get the chance again. 0827 or 0835 is a decent support to me. 1.0898 may be a decent R eventually if not now. The day has closed below 0898 a few days now. The week ends today. This could make it stronger. The 1/2 year pp at 0827, 0835 the mid since eu conception. Plus qpp 0878 dont have a week close below it yet either. 0898 is delicate R compared to those large supports. PA at 0827 places 0898 within a adr. Once pa closes below 0898 0878 with a week close. And 0827 0835 support is tested. A bounce back to 0898 is within adr. Price reached average 0889, it may reach for 0827 35 today
If the current high holds, adr is about 0819. I may be wrong, but I think it bounces sometime into 0800/35. 1 adr should test 0898. Maybe next week.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #111,498
  • Aug 18, 2023 4:08am Aug 18, 2023 4:08am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Yep. I may regret. I have a reason that may be wrong. I like to short R. Later I may get the chance again. 0827 or 0835 is a decent support to me. 1.0898 may be a decent R eventually if not now. The day has closed below 0898 a few days now. The week ends today. This could make it stronger. The 1/2 year pp at 0827, 0835 the mid since eu conception. Plus qpp 0878 dont have a week close below it yet either. 0898 is delicate R compared to those large supports. PA at 0827 places 0898 within a adr. Once pa closes below 0898 0878 with a week close....
after 1.0827/35 testing. 0898 R may be enough to push it below back down to break 0827. But if it dont/cant (close week below). It may run to 1108/20

The Q closes in 5.5 weeks for 0878. The 1/2 year Dec 31. Pa has time to play here in some range. If that be the case. Many will be chopped up here. Today it could reach 0827/35 area and bounce above 0898. There is a lot of time to range.

If it test 0827/35 area, followed with a close today above 0898 today. And it may run up to 1108/20. It looks bearish to test 0827/35 area now. After that it may change some.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #111,499
  • Aug 18, 2023 4:18am Aug 18, 2023 4:18am
I plan to buy 0827 35 area, and take the loss if it dont bounce. This may be a good area to observe. It will be very bearish there. Longs blood, will be in the streets. It could capitulate lower. Having a s/l ahead of time is a must. Doing it now before takes out some emotion. That's my plan. To plan the risk now, before in the heat of sex.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #111,500
  • Aug 18, 2023 7:55am Aug 18, 2023 7:55am
Below 0827 is 1.07 and 1.0576. If it bounces from 0827/35 ish to 1.0878 1.0898 0903 0942 or even more. Its probably limited to 1108/20ish. Mpp 1034. Bears could just plow through 0827... That dont happen too often. At hand is a large support that i think will break. But I doubt it will break at the first swing. 0898 is less than 100 pips. It is probably to close to hold A normal bounce down. I will not risk a lot of pips fighting a bounce.

1.0898 has mid year close at 1.0903.4 to back it ..At some point it may help as it turns to R
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