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Strat's PASR Long Term, Stress Free Trading

  • #17,121
  • Aug 15, 2023 11:53am Aug 15, 2023 11:53am
Quoting bistolis
{quote} Just use the smallest lot size and wait for a 1$ move up or down from the current price and then multiply
I didn't think of that until you said it, I can make a few small trades instead of a big one, thanks
  • #17,122
  • Aug 15, 2023 12:06pm Aug 15, 2023 12:06pm
Quoting Strat
{quote} Good to see you are still here and posting, Barbaresco - I was beginning to think you had left the room with Elvis and all the rest who used to frequent this thread
Nope I'm here, will post if someone wants another chart, but looks like you've got NQ covered. Haven't been subjectively trading YM lately since NQ S15 takes basically all of the free time, and then some, some days.
  • #17,123
  • Edited 12:39pm Aug 15, 2023 12:08pm | Edited 12:39pm
Quoting oradba
Just found this thread and dove right in. As background, I took James16's course what seems like a lifetime ago, but didn't have the psychological discipline to make use of it. I am now a profitable trader, looking to take the leap to doing this full time. PASR makes sense to me intuitively, but - I have a few questions based on the chart below. {image} We see as clear a double top as I've ever seen. If I were trading this chart naked, I would have entered at the start of the second down candle in the blue box. However, the 20 MA doesn't cross the...
These comments are in addition to those from bistolis and Barbaresco -

We see as clear a double top as I've ever seen. If I were trading this chart naked, I would have entered at the start of the second down candle in the blue box.

Yes, that is Classic PA trading. PASR with volume may have got you in on the first down candle - I can't check because I no longer have Forex charts.

However, the 20 MA doesn't cross the 50 MA until a dozen or so candles down. Why wait two weeks for the cross?

As bistolis pointed out, PASR does NOT trade MA crosses nor does it use the 50 MA. I further developed the two MAs, known as the "Strat Shadow", for trending trading purposes only. Using them for anything else, especially in a range/consolidation is, as Barbaresco remarks, useless, which is why and where we use Basic PASR.

For the purposes of this discussion, please ignore the TDI/Stoch windows, I have been using Trading Made Simple method and seeing if it is makeable into a system

PASR ALWAYS ignores indicators and all other 2nd degree + lagging tools.

Any indicator system will work sometimes, but not consistently enough to trade large contracts to make a decent living.

Expanding on Barbaresco's comments, you can use any MA to create a system/strategy/method - it is how YOU understand what that MA means in the context of PA, Price Structure and higher time frames. The rules generated around that MA system/strategy/method will work sometimes, just like any other, but the fragile, feeble, infidelity nature of the Market coupled with Institutional Trading, makes sure it does not work ALL the time meaning that, at best, over the long term, and, as Barbaresco points out, is break even at best and a loser when commissions and exchange costs are included.

NOTHING works 100% of the time which is why we need GOOD Money and Risk Management.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #17,124
  • Aug 15, 2023 12:15pm Aug 15, 2023 12:15pm
Quoting DexterzxD
{quote} 100k prop account with EightCap
100k prop account with EightCap

Are you consistently profitable using a $5K account - if not, why would you mess around with a $100K 8 Cap Prop account?

I know I'm an old stick in the mud (some say old fart) but I don't understand this Prop Account stuff.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #17,125
  • Aug 15, 2023 12:18pm Aug 15, 2023 12:18pm
Quoting DexterzxD
{quote} This is their response {image}
If my broker sent me that, it would be the last thing I ever did with them and I would find a REAL, reliable broker in the next heartbeat!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #17,126
  • Aug 15, 2023 12:28pm Aug 15, 2023 12:28pm
More about brokers... they are not your friends, they don't benefit if you make money, their terms of service are egregious, and they will blame you if anything ever happens - including with 3rd parties like exchanges / regulatory. They are necessary unless you have ~50-100M to give to a prime, and then the process starts all over again, being an infant fish, but now in the ocean. So, keep only enough money with them to cover your leverage needs, and try your best to stay away from bucket shops or anyone that also runs a prop desk of any sort.
  • #17,127
  • Aug 16, 2023 6:37am Aug 16, 2023 6:37am
Entry at the lows of today and based on H4 lows
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Partial at 30 pips and watching PA
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Later today FOMC meeting minutes and likely volatility. I expect some very boring or very interesting PA
Out for 30pips for the rest as well. Now the plan is to wait for NY open (unless PA provides something I can not resist to take)
  • #17,128
  • Aug 16, 2023 12:28pm Aug 16, 2023 12:28pm
M3 NASDAQ NQ 09-23

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Basic PASR up to 8:30am then Trend PASR thereafter using H2 RoadMap

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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #17,129
  • Aug 16, 2023 12:50pm Aug 16, 2023 12:50pm
Quoting Strat
M3 NASDAQ NQ 09-23 {image} Basic PASR up to 8:30am then Trend PASR thereafter using H2 RoadMap {image}
NQ was close to 4 std dev's for 100 pt move by the end of that flat wedge. 4*100=400pts, breakdown from 15100 to 15000. I took out along the way, but the ratio generally jives.
  • #17,130
  • Aug 16, 2023 2:19pm Aug 16, 2023 2:19pm
Late session trading after FOMC meeting minutes. I tried shorting twice and booking 2 losses. The final trade I took partials along the way and final exit close to adr. I figured 180pips is good enough rather than hoping to hit ADR for another 15 (which eventually did happen)

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  • #17,131
  • Aug 17, 2023 2:06am Aug 17, 2023 2:06am
Quoting Strat
{quote} 100k prop account with EightCap Are you consistently profitable using a $5K account - if not, why would you mess around with a $100K 8 Cap Prop account? I know I'm an old stick in the mud (some say old fart) but I don't understand this Prop Account stuff.
I use this stuff because I can scale my account every 10% profit e.g. from 100k to 200k; 200 to 500k up to 2.5M. The single thing I don't like is this garbage with big lots about gaps from the moment I entered and where I get filled, but otherwise is a good choice
  • #17,132
  • Aug 17, 2023 2:08am Aug 17, 2023 2:08am
Quoting bistolis
Entry at the lows of today and based on H4 lows {image} Partial at 30 pips and watching PA {image} Later today FOMC meeting minutes and likely volatility. I expect some very boring or very interesting PA Out for 30pips for the rest as well. Now the plan is to wait for NY open (unless PA provides something I can not resist to take)
if I had entered the trade in that area, I would have been very anxious, I don't know how you manage to stay chill
  • #17,133
  • Aug 17, 2023 5:29am Aug 17, 2023 5:29am
Quoting DexterzxD
{quote} I use this stuff because I can scale my account every 10% profit e.g. from 100k to 200k; 200 to 500k up to 2.5M. The single thing I don't like is this garbage with big lots about gaps from the moment I entered and where I get filled, but otherwise is a good choice
Don't fall for that scam, please. Worse than a bucket shop - they give you more leverage and call it money. Just use a real broker.
  • #17,134
  • Aug 17, 2023 6:10am Aug 17, 2023 6:10am
Quoting Barbaresco
{quote} Don't fall for that scam, please. Worse than a bucket shop - they give you more leverage and call it money. Just use a real broker.
I understand your point, friends told me about this firm and some of them withdraw some money ,like a few thousands per month or something similar ,depends, but yes I know most of the firms are scams and after all they make money from failed challenges
  • #17,135
  • Aug 17, 2023 7:10am Aug 17, 2023 7:10am
Quoting DexterzxD
{quote} if I had entered the trade in that area, I would have been very anxious, I don't know how you manage to stay chill
if the trade fails I accept losing a few pips. that is the trick. Dont overthink the loss just accept it
  • #17,136
  • Aug 17, 2023 7:12am Aug 17, 2023 7:12am
Quoting Barbaresco
{quote} Don't fall for that scam, please. Worse than a bucket shop - they give you more leverage and call it money. Just use a real broker.
Most of the online prop firms are indeed scams , there are some that have at least some reputation of payouts. It is a good choice when we lack capital. That is the whole point of choosing those prop firms. We don't have the bucks
  • #17,137
  • Aug 17, 2023 7:29am Aug 17, 2023 7:29am
Quoting bistolis
{quote} Most of the online prop firms are indeed scams , there are some that have at least some reputation of payouts. It is a good choice when we lack capital. That is the whole point of choosing those prop firms. We don't have the bucks
Better to do something else until you amass enough capital to generate enough income to justify the time and risk of trading. Tester accounts are all well and good, but there needs to be skin in the game for it to be real. Turning 1K into 2K is very different than turning 1M into 2M, even using algos. Especially subjectively and manually, it's harder and harder the bigger the numbers become. If you don't have enough capital to live off of 20% return, I'd say it isn't enough. We've all calculated 50 and 100% returns, but doing it with sizable capital, year over year is just a different animal.
  • #17,138
  • Aug 17, 2023 10:18am Aug 17, 2023 10:18am
M4 NASDAQ NQ 09-23

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Blue rectangles indicate large buying volume coming in with Market Open BUT hitting a huge Iceberg of Sell Stop orders which caused a huge imbalance causing PRICE to fall off the cliff!

Since PRICE has lost it's way, I'm done for the day.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #17,139
  • Aug 17, 2023 10:25am Aug 17, 2023 10:25am
Quoting bistolis
{quote} Most of the online prop firms are indeed scams , there are some that have at least some reputation of payouts. It is a good choice when we lack capital. That is the whole point of choosing those prop firms. We don't have the bucks
It is a good choice when we lack capital

That is a fool's game, bistolis. Throughout these 2 threads I have always said to paper trade the size of account you will actually trade with real money. To do otherwise is like practicing golf with a different set of golf clubs than those you use for playing or trying to learn to drive on a McLaren when your car is a Toyota Prius!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #17,140
  • Aug 17, 2023 1:55pm Aug 17, 2023 1:55pm
sometimes when I move my sl to be after I close 50% with 2RR ,a spike come and close my trades like in this case(white 'X') , but a win is a win, I think I need other trade management strategy ,this is happening almost everyday.red line is SR from h4
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