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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #5,081
  • May 29, 2007 7:21pm May 29, 2007 7:21pm
Quoting treadline
can we trade the chinese currency anywhere?
not yet.
Sorry about my english...
  • #5,082
  • May 29, 2007 7:22pm May 29, 2007 7:22pm
Down 1.83% and rising.

Amazing Chinese. What a guts they must have.
  • #5,083
  • May 29, 2007 7:26pm May 29, 2007 7:26pm
How do the Chinese relate to the JPY carry trades.

When they dropped interest rates the GBPJPY went down 120 pips and then recovered 75% of the drop within 12 trading hours.

Perhaps we are putting to much weight in the China factor.

  • #5,084
  • May 29, 2007 7:30pm May 29, 2007 7:30pm
Quoting yezbick
Down 1.83% and rising.

Amazing Chinese. What a guts they must have.
Almost 1.5 billion of people, cheap labors, cheap resources. Money flows into this country everyday since after government open trading (not totally).
300,000 new broker's accounts opened daily.
You bet they are trading.
  • #5,085
  • May 29, 2007 7:35pm May 29, 2007 7:35pm
Quoting yezbick
Down 1.83% and rising.

Amazing Chinese. What a guts they must have.
not gut. this was foreseeable and expected.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #5,086
  • May 29, 2007 7:36pm May 29, 2007 7:36pm
Quoting yezbick
Perhaps we are putting to much weight in the China factor.

really?
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #5,087
  • May 29, 2007 7:44pm May 29, 2007 7:44pm
Quoting cesarnc
hehehe.. I was short + 40 and was stopped at B/E
had my popcorn ready to see you go short all the way. good thing you didn't.

yet.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #5,088
  • May 29, 2007 7:54pm May 29, 2007 7:54pm
Quoting bravado
yet.
exactly.
Mr. Trend
  • #5,089
  • May 29, 2007 8:01pm May 29, 2007 8:01pm
Quoting Mr Trend
exactly.
oh cesarnc knows. that's why i would never give him a lollipop. why should i when he can afford it.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #5,090
  • May 29, 2007 8:35pm May 29, 2007 8:35pm
Quoting bravado
oh cesarnc knows. that's why i would never give him a lollipop. why should i when he can afford it.
8% drop on the B Shares... I like what I see. Hope it drops another 10% by the time the week's over.
Mr. Trend
  • #5,091
  • May 29, 2007 8:43pm May 29, 2007 8:43pm
lucky I made 50 pips on the down drop since 241.10...still there is not even an hourly close below 240.50. Technically, I dont see any downtrend unfolding on either UY, EY or GY, so I guess I will stick with the buying bottoms approach until I get hammered out. Looks like buying around 240.50 and exiting at 241.20ish seems the best strategy for this ugly range...
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #5,092
  • May 29, 2007 8:59pm May 29, 2007 8:59pm
Nice trade...

Look for renewed market interest when Shanghai resumes trading here at 1PM Shanghai time... which is 1AM EST...

Last time the currency market dropped like a rock, it was during Shanghai's second session.
Mr. Trend
  • #5,093
  • May 29, 2007 9:01pm May 29, 2007 9:01pm
So you're saying in about an hour we might see some more significant movement? And potentially to the downside, if history repeats itself? (Not saying that it will necessarily of course! )
  • #5,094
  • May 29, 2007 9:22pm May 29, 2007 9:22pm
Quoting ~Shard~
So you're saying in about an hour we might see some more significant movement? And potentially to the downside, if history repeats itself? (Not saying that it will necessarily of course! )
Therotically, yes.

But here's something to ponder -- the market knew this was coming. That's why I think we're seeing a good level of support on the 1H on GBPJPY right now. Seems to me, like another poster just mentioned, that the uptrend or rather, the beginning of a move down hasn't been demonstrated as of yet.

However, I quit trying to predict a long time ago... This thing could range, make another move up to 241 and near the end of the week after Shanghai has lost 20%, the market crashes. I'm personally going to be eyeing the 240.35 area tonight all the way into London...

Who knows. But I think tomorrow's US session will be a major factor in any carry unwinding (read: DOW).
Mr. Trend
  • #5,095
  • May 29, 2007 9:27pm May 29, 2007 9:27pm
Thanks for the insight, it's appreciated.
  • #5,096
  • Edited 9:51pm May 29, 2007 9:35pm | Edited 9:51pm
Quoting Mr Trend
But I think tomorrow's US session will be a major factor in any carry unwinding (read: DOW).
very good point.

im really praying for a move here, may it be either way. Im tired of these markets ranging for months...
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #5,097
  • May 29, 2007 10:30pm May 29, 2007 10:30pm
Ok, now I know I am not dreaming, Shanghai's second session opened at 8-9% negative. (B-share)
GJ jump up to 240.85. no clue.
  • #5,098
  • May 29, 2007 10:32pm May 29, 2007 10:32pm
01:10Chinese equities open lower after break for lunch

...and still, there seem to be a bounce up in both UY and GY. God understand the market, coz I dont.
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #5,099
  • May 29, 2007 10:34pm May 29, 2007 10:34pm
Quoting gagiul
01:10Chinese equities open lower after break for lunch

...and still, there seem to be a bounce up in both UY and GY. God understand the market, coz I dont.
I say, Amen.
  • #5,100
  • May 29, 2007 10:37pm May 29, 2007 10:37pm
Watching at CNBC, right now. The European market looks not affected by China market.
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