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The Swamp

  • #111,401
  • Aug 15, 2023 9:07am Aug 15, 2023 9:07am
Quoting gatorinla
{image} Q 0877 0951.9 {image}
You are here.. Smaller than the trestles, on the parasite, sucking on the gnats ass. X .000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #111,402
  • Aug 15, 2023 9:12am Aug 15, 2023 9:12am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} You are here.. Smaller than the trestles, on the parasite, sucking on the gnats ass. X .000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001 {image}
just where I want to be. any more and folks start having expectations of you
  • #111,403
  • Edited 9:29am Aug 15, 2023 9:15am | Edited 9:29am
I would love to see today close below 0873..
But in my mind, I would just want -0935.. People are never satisfied. Smell the roses. It wasn't long ago. When the richest human lived in a cave with outdoor plumbing. You are the success of those before you. Or as I like to think. Of the billions of sperms. You are lucky. You managed to defy gravity, and not hit the ground. Of the billions of sperm who started with you. On this journey. You are the fastest and brightest. You ancestors managed not to be eaten by a Saber tooth tiger. (at least before you defied gravity) Give yourself a big "thumbs up". Just remember your brother in law, or neighbor may be a moron. But it could be worse, you got the cream of the crop. A toast to you all.. At least you managed not to be swallowed.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #111,404
  • Aug 15, 2023 9:37am Aug 15, 2023 9:37am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} let’s see I can get out of this messy trades {image}
done with messy trades, with tinny gain
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  • #111,405
  • Aug 15, 2023 9:44am Aug 15, 2023 9:44am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} done with messy trades, with tinny gain {image}
A close today below 0942 and or 0951 may still point to bear. But it may just be part of a range above 0878. Closing today and Friday below 0878 would look bearish.. but its still gonna face 0835 and 0827.. 0827 is mid year pp..
PA is above the Q pp and mid year pp.. Year pp at 0576.. Close a month/Q below it..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #111,406
  • Aug 15, 2023 9:54am Aug 15, 2023 9:54am
chop chop.. even a week chart has little power against the Q.. Semi and year chart. Range s/r may be best.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #111,407
  • Aug 15, 2023 3:03pm Aug 15, 2023 3:03pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} A close today below 0942 and or 0951 may still point to bear. But it may just be part of a range above 0878. Closing today and Friday below 0878 would look bearish.. but its still gonna face 0835 and 0827.. 0827 is mid year pp.. PA is above the Q pp and mid year pp.. Year pp at 0576.. Close a month/Q below it..
I had a tp hit.. I'm debating on a long with myself, to tp 0940/51. PA likes to rise on Wednesday for some reason. Maybe to stick people with a swap. If i do long.. My stop wont be too far below 0878.. I will try to let it drop some more. With 1h left it looks like pa will close below 0942/51. That is bearish to me. So it should let pa test 0878 ish support again. I dont want to long too early. I will short back near 0942/51.9 again.. Its R to me on the week bases. On a larger scale 0878 is support.. I expect 0978 to break.. But there's still 6 weeks in this quarter. So it has lots of time to pass through it many times.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #111,408
  • Aug 15, 2023 3:19pm Aug 15, 2023 3:19pm
Quoting gatorinla
on a average day adr is 80 pips. pa atm high is above 50% of adr. on a average day 0903 happens. 0938 is half adr. 0978ish is a full adr, so is 80 pips down from the current high. If pa rises, so does the lower number. But once above 0938. The chance of average goes to 1 risk to 2 reward. If in a downtrend. That's a decent way to see things.
It went back to 0903 twice since. The original 50% was at 0938ish. One could have made it 2X. About 70 pips. But this second time 0903 is irrelevant. The tp could be deeper since adr was never achieved. As a average thing. Even if this had bee a terrible trade. The risk was less because 1/2 the average was spent. (You didnt short 40 pips early, 1/2, you didnt pay for 40 pips of drawdown) Although it never dropped the 80 pips of adr. The small advantage was on your side shorting at a R. In a downtrend with most of adr spent.
If one shorted early.. It may still be in drawdown near a very large support. That's the difference in making money or not, often. Missing trades, and waiting for one with more advantage.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #111,409
  • Aug 15, 2023 3:29pm Aug 15, 2023 3:29pm
I closed most of my short.. Yes it may go to 0878. It may also go to 0940 average.. It may do both. I closed before the day ended. Adr could still run down. But i had 50 pips. Should i risk it to make the other 22? I took the "bird in hand." If it runs back to 0940.. I get a shot at another bird to short.. Maybe a long toward 0942 will develop.
R is 0942/51.9. Its stronger than it was earlier. But its still no match for 0978 support most often.. There is no such thing as 100%. I do think 0878 will break.. When?

When it does break, and pa test 0827/35 as support.. It will probably bounce back to test 0878 from below. It may be R then..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #111,410
  • Aug 15, 2023 4:28pm Aug 15, 2023 4:28pm
The atm low today at 0897. If pa went straight up now adr (80) is about 0977. 1/2 of it is 0937. If one has a short bias That may be as high as it goes. If it drops to 0878 support, the adr may be about 0958. Using it 50% is about 0918..

Todays dpp at 0915.9. ds2 at 0881. ds3 at 0960.

An average run to 0941, followed by an average adr drop near ds3 can yield 086x. Nobody knows if 0878 will allow it, to drop to 0861. 1.0941/51 may be a decent R/R short. 1.0878 long may be a decent r/r long to tp 0941ish
It will likely go to 0878 or 0941. It may go to the other after.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #111,411
  • Aug 15, 2023 5:56pm Aug 15, 2023 5:56pm
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #111,412
  • Aug 15, 2023 6:04pm Aug 15, 2023 6:04pm
S2 - R3 looks nice and appropriate. For me that is 1.882 to 1.0972. See if it goes down there first.
  • #111,413
  • Aug 15, 2023 8:15pm Aug 15, 2023 8:15pm
Quoting charlienoble
S2 - R3 looks nice and appropriate. For me that is 1.882 to 1.0972. See if it goes down there first.
It may.. 1.0898.1 looks to develop.. Either S or R at some point.
I took a some buy at 0900. s/l 0875, tp 0940. Just a small 1 to 2 R/R.. Just to keep me interested. But I should leave the stop at 0894ish
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #111,414
  • Aug 15, 2023 10:52pm Aug 15, 2023 10:52pm
8/16 Wed Trading levels

1.0971
1.0950
1.0937

1.0915 - PP

1.0894
1.0881
1.0860

Next to print 1.0915 or 1.0894
  • #111,415
  • Aug 15, 2023 10:56pm Aug 15, 2023 10:56pm
See you in the US session
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  • #111,416
  • Aug 16, 2023 2:07am Aug 16, 2023 2:07am
Quoting gatorinla
{image}
Stones will do the trick. Make sure not to hit them. Just scare them.
  • #111,417
  • Aug 16, 2023 3:20am Aug 16, 2023 3:20am
Quoting Boulder
See you in the US session {image}
EU at 1.0850 would suit me. NU getting to 63.....not going to happen in this side of Christmas
Its all just one persons opinion
  • #111,418
  • Edited 5:05am Aug 16, 2023 4:45am | Edited 5:05am
Quoting Boulder
See you in the US session {image}
To get to 0850 from 0941. Is about 91 pips. About 114% of adr. One of those numbers are likely wrong. It being Wednesday, the low already at 0897. PA may run closer to 0980. 0977 would be adr-ish. DPP at 0915.x.. area needs to support to rise. closer to 0977. I closed my long for 23 pips. The atm high is 0934, to reach 0850is 84 pips, or about 105% of adr.

I put a new pending long. 0916.3.. With hope the DPP holds.. Pa runs to 0941+, closer to adr.. 0977.. Risking 3 pips
.
Since 0878 is still a Q pp.. 1.0898 may start to support. The Q has 6 weeks to break. 6 weeks is a long time.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #111,419
  • Edited 5:50am Aug 16, 2023 5:36am | Edited 5:50am
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I am who I am
  • #111,420
  • Aug 16, 2023 6:11am Aug 16, 2023 6:11am
PA is coming off Qpp..0878. It may be attracted to 0941. ATM pa is above the DPP. Its simple here. It either crosses 0913.6/15.9 or not.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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