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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #5,001
  • May 29, 2007 8:09am May 29, 2007 8:09am
An offtopic for cesarnc: still short on USD CAD? I chickened again at 1.0800 and just saw now the downfall after the BOC decision. Damn, cant believe im such a chicken
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #5,002
  • May 29, 2007 8:57am May 29, 2007 8:57am

im starting to really hate the pound and love the euro. Recently, pound is giving only one great move per week, then it stands depressingly still for many days. cant understand why its not moving a little more up, like Euro, so we can see GY above 241.50 for gods sake.

We leave no soldier behind.
  • #5,003
  • May 29, 2007 9:07am May 29, 2007 9:07am
Look at your chart patterns, you will understand why. G/j is rather topped, and e/j hasnt even considered topping. Euro is much more stable than the pound especially now with all the speculation surrounding the BOE data.
  • #5,004
  • May 29, 2007 9:11am May 29, 2007 9:11am
Quoting gagiul

im starting to really hate the pound and love the euro. Recently, pound is giving only one great move per week, then it stands depressingly still for many days. cant understand why its not moving a little more up, like Euro, so we can see GY above 241.50 for gods sake.

RBS/ABN deal hit the market heavily today. EURGBP soared as the outcome. That's why I'm splitting carry trade positions with the Euro. You never know which will prevail. Surely traders will jump in the most favoured pair. And that happened to be the Euro today
  • #5,005
  • May 29, 2007 9:27am May 29, 2007 9:27am
Quoting gagiul
An offtopic for cesarnc: still short on USD CAD? I chickened again at 1.0800 and just saw now the downfall after the BOC decision. Damn, cant believe im such a chicken
I'm always short USDCAD since 0940. increasing positions at the corrections and taking profits at 10 pips before round figures.

As today's move was overextended, imo, I made 100 pips in one of the positions way too fast for not taking it, I'm all-out now.

Strategy now is loading the shorts again at 0750 and previous bottom 0775. Or breach of today's low, whichever happens first. Stops above 0820

Again, sorry for the off-topic
  • #5,006
  • May 29, 2007 10:22am May 29, 2007 10:22am
Shorting EJ every time it reaches new all-time high is pretty profitable as well.
  • #5,007
  • May 29, 2007 11:09am May 29, 2007 11:09am
Quoting Pipsqueak
Shorting EJ every time it reaches new all-time high is pretty profitable as well.
dont wanna sound like an expert, coz im not, im just a newbie, but believe me, its much easier to buy bottoms on yen crosses than selling tops.
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #5,008
  • May 29, 2007 11:24am May 29, 2007 11:24am
Quoting thkkfx
you will find they "bubbled" much more than China,but seems no one worries about it.
Did you know that China is currently the TIGER of new economy. Their growth is double digits and everything is skyrocketing in very short term.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18882860/site/newsweek/
  • #5,009
  • May 29, 2007 12:04pm May 29, 2007 12:04pm
How do you trade this beast, meaning gbp/jpy, when both currencies are weak? It seems they are both fighting to be the first one to jump off the cliff!
  • #5,010
  • May 29, 2007 12:17pm May 29, 2007 12:17pm
Another lackluster session in the US stock market, again after a strong start up.... Looks like 13,600 is a strong figure

USDJPY yet with a lot of wood to chop on the way to 122s. To note 122.30 is 5 years high.

Again, patience is what rewards in yen pairs.
  • #5,011
  • May 29, 2007 12:20pm May 29, 2007 12:20pm
Oh-Oh...

13:19 CHINA SAYS TO RAISE STOCK TRADING STAMP DUTY, SEEN AS BID TO CLAMP DOWN ON OVERHEATED MARKET
  • #5,012
  • May 29, 2007 12:31pm May 29, 2007 12:31pm
Dow down 36 @ 13:31 EST
  • #5,013
  • May 29, 2007 12:36pm May 29, 2007 12:36pm
Quoting yezbick
Dow down 36 @ 13:31 EST
Better keep eyes on Shanghai today, too... To see how this announcement will hit the market.
  • #5,014
  • May 29, 2007 12:40pm May 29, 2007 12:40pm
here we go again...oh boy... i hate these days when a move up is 100 % retraced
We leave no soldier behind.
  • #5,015
  • May 29, 2007 12:55pm May 29, 2007 12:55pm
i'll be looking to long this pair soon.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #5,016
  • May 29, 2007 12:57pm May 29, 2007 12:57pm
You guys know that I'm not an armaggedon kindda guy, but so far we've had only talks and rumours and B.S.

This time however, there was an action taken by the Chinese government. Are the stocks falling in China today? I don't know. I just say, keep an eye on it as to realize how investors are going to react.

13:52 The Chinese increase in the stamp tax rates is likely to have a significant impact on Chinese equity markets, and it's already taking a toll on JPY crosses and US equities. These are the kinds of government actions that can potentially lead to a larger scale unwinding of carry trades.

I got out of my remaining carries already at B/E, too good a day to me to overtrade.
  • #5,017
  • May 29, 2007 1:09pm May 29, 2007 1:09pm
Quoting cesarnc
You guys know that I'm not an armaggedon kindda guy, but so far we've had only talks and rumours and B.S.

This time however, there was an action taken by the Chinese government. Are the stocks falling in China today? I don't know. I just say, keep an eye on it as to realize how investors are going to react.

13:52 The Chinese increase in the stamp tax rates is likely to have a significant impact on Chinese equity markets, and it's already taking a toll on JPY crosses and US equities. These are the kinds of government actions that can potentially lead to a larger scale unwinding of carry trades.

I got out of my remaining carries already at B/E, too good a day to me to overtrade.
hello there.good point you raised there.
i was going to warn all the nother traders to be careful of their trades until they watch the news coming out some hours later.

UNTIL THEN TAKE CARE, AND MAY YOUR TRADING BE PROSPEROUS!!!
  • #5,018
  • May 29, 2007 1:15pm May 29, 2007 1:15pm
I'm guessing that's the one piece of news from China for the day. Now it's time for the vulgers...i mean bottom fishers to jump in. EJ and GJ now are both at solid support level. I'm long GJ at 240.60 again, tight sl at 240.40. If it breaks through this level, all hell will break loose.
  • #5,019
  • May 29, 2007 1:26pm May 29, 2007 1:26pm
Quoting Pipsqueak
I'm guessing that's the one piece of news from China for the day. Now it's time for the vulgers...i mean bottom fishers to jump in. EJ and GJ now are both at solid support level. I'm long GJ at 240.60 again, tight sl at 240.40. If it breaks through this level, all hell will break loose.
I will be watching for the late NYC / pre-Asian session panic first. May consider a short positon in case it happens... But will only jump if GU and EU starts falling with UJ. THAT's the carry trade unwinding stamp
  • #5,020
  • May 29, 2007 1:29pm May 29, 2007 1:29pm
Quoting Pipsqueak
I'm guessing that's the one piece of news from China for the day. Now it's time for the vulgers...i mean bottom fishers to jump in. EJ and GJ now are both at solid support level. I'm long GJ at 240.60 again, tight sl at 240.40. If it breaks through this level, all hell will break loose.

I think if it breaks through the daily S3 pivot at 240.56, it can fall to the next weekly pivot at 239.75, then 238.00.
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