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Hello from a Noob

  • #1
  • First Post: May 29, 2007 8:14am May 29, 2007 8:14am
Just saying hello
Hi I have just joined this forum maybe about a week ago.
I have been lurking for maybe the past month and decided that I should really start posting if I want to learn more.
Just to give a little back ground about my self, ive been an online/offline poker player for 3 years and I was quite successful in terms of money and actually understanding the game.
Ive been thinking about giving it up though as the life style is quite exhausting and to be really successful you need to dedicate a lot of time to it which kind of burns out after a while.
Also the thing about poker is you can’t really use it out side of poker.
Then I decided to give trading ago and when I got in to it I saw that its actually a lot similar to poker.
There are a lot of similar concepts in both like money management, risk/reward ration, how you should think in terms of long run, how you should understand where your money is actually coming from etc.
I know I can be quite successful in trading even though as of yet I have not even made one trade and to be honest I prob would not even be able to trade for the moment as im just understanding the basics.
I find these forum very useful and seen as I was a member of several such poker forums in the past I understand the value of these.
Thanks to all those who take the time to explain things to noobs such as my self when they don’t have to.
Also if any one has any interest in poker im willing to swap some sort of poker coaching program for Forex trading coaching on a one to one basis
  • #2
  • May 29, 2007 8:57am May 29, 2007 8:57am
Welcome, and good luck to you!

I would say you have a very good start, better than most, at becoming a successful trader. Most learn to manage risk the hard, painful way. You're already there.
  • #3
  • May 29, 2007 9:16am May 29, 2007 9:16am
I just have a few questions:
Say with about a 20K capital starting off ,what sort of realistic return can I expect for my first year?

What about second year?
.
Say the best traders on this forum, what sort of sustainable return would they be able to achieve with 20K capital per year?

Is there a way to work out your expected return per hour kind of thing?
An hour would prob be too small a sample size in forex trading but basically what im asking is what would be realistic minimum period by which you could measure your expected profit?

What sort of sample size is sufficient to know that the value represents your true expected value and its not suffering from variance that much?

Thank you in advance .
  • #4
  • May 29, 2007 10:16am May 29, 2007 10:16am
Quote
I know I can be quite successful in trading even though as of yet I have not even made one trade and to be honest I prob would not even be able to trade for the moment as im just understanding the basics.
This was the best line in your first post. Sit back and re-read it.
Quoting Gholimoli
I just have a few questions:
Say with about a 20K capital starting off ,what sort of realistic return can I expect for my first year?
If you end up at break-even you'll have done well
Quote
What about second year?
see previous answer !!!
.
Quote
Say the best traders on this forum, what sort of sustainable return would they be able to achieve with 20K capital per year?
The best traders are the BEST traders because they've learnt the value of money management, and as you've already taken that on board you've at least got a head-start.
Quote
Is there a way to work out your expected return per hour kind of thing?
An hour would prob be too small a sample size in forex trading but basically what im asking is what would be realistic minimum period by which you could measure your expected profit?
As you look around you'll see different figures, but as I understand it even pro-traders in the big hedge funds think 5 - 10% good over a year.
Quote
What sort of sample size is sufficient to know that the value represents your true expected value and its not suffering from variance that much?

Thank you in advance .
You'll need to spend a lot of time getting to know the dynamics of the market, there's probably the same sort of psychology at work here as there is in poker.
Have you read all the stuff in the Beginner's Section about MM? If not give it some time.
When you've demoed for a couple of months, and feel you've reached the point to go live, then cut your $20K into 4 -5 tranches, set up a micro account with the first tranche, playing with pennies, and wait until you've got a few profitable months under your belt. This way if you get over-confident, and blow the first account, you'll still have most of your money to get you through the next learning stage.
Try and remember that, at the start, you're just trying to learn to trade correctly, NOT make money. Once you're trading with a level mental approach, and you have a method that shows consistent returns, the money will come to you, you won't be chasing it.
Hope this helps a little.
  • #5
  • May 29, 2007 10:20am May 29, 2007 10:20am
Welcome to FF

Quoting Gholimoli
I just have a few questions:
Say with about a 20K capital starting off ,what sort of realistic return can I expect for my first year?
If you dont know what are you doing -100% , minus 100% or (100%)
What about second year?
The same as above
 .
Say the best traders on this forum, what sort of sustainable return would they be able to achieve with 20K capital per year?
For a 20k account, they can make a huge return. But its a pointless question for starters as it takes a lot of time and effort to develop the proper systems and skills.
So take your time and effort to develop yourself
Is there a way to work out your expected return per hour kind of thing?
An hour would prob be too small a sample size in forex trading but basically what im asking is what would be realistic minimum period by which you could measure your expected profit? In a hourly basis, you will kill yourself trying to overtrade to meet your return per hour criteria. Weeks and months are realistic minimum periods.

What sort of sample size is sufficient to know that the value represents your true expected value and its not suffering from variance that much?
Sorry, I cannt answer this question.
Thank you in advance .
  • #6
  • May 29, 2007 2:28pm May 29, 2007 2:28pm
many thanks for the replys...
  • #7
  • May 29, 2007 2:45pm May 29, 2007 2:45pm
well huu then, good luck should be the right words...

i dont really see, how you can use poker strategy but i would urge you to read, read, read... and read more after than...

then paper trade, paper trade, paper trade and eventually paper trade some more...

Then read again and paper trade again...

And then eventually after at least 6 months you could start with a small account and you will eventually no blow it off in a week (it might take longer then )
  • #8
  • Jul 27, 2007 5:41pm Jul 27, 2007 5:41pm
Quoting Gholimoli
Just saying hello
Hi I have just joined this forum maybe about a week ago.
I have been lurking for maybe the past month and decided that I should really start posting if I want to learn more.
Just to give a little back ground about my self, ive been an online/offline poker player for 3 years and I was quite successful in terms of money and actually understanding the game.
Ive been thinking about giving it up though as the life style is quite exhausting and to be really successful you need to dedicate a lot of time to it which kind of burns out after a while.
Also the thing about poker is you can’t really use it out side of poker.
Then I decided to give trading ago and when I got in to it I saw that its actually a lot similar to poker.
There are a lot of similar concepts in both like money management, risk/reward ration, how you should think in terms of long run, how you should understand where your money is actually coming from etc.
I know I can be quite successful in trading even though as of yet I have not even made one trade and to be honest I prob would not even be able to trade for the moment as im just understanding the basics.
I find these forum very useful and seen as I was a member of several such poker forums in the past I understand the value of these.
Thanks to all those who take the time to explain things to noobs such as my self when they don’t have to.
Also if any one has any interest in poker im willing to swap some sort of poker coaching program for Forex trading coaching on a one to one basis

Truthfully, break-even is good after a year. DO NOT start with 20,000.

Try out micro accounts first, trust me on this. There is a reason why 95% of the traders out there fail in the first year. Money Management is probably 95% of the reason. You are starting your first year of college right now, so it is up to you on how much you want tuition to be. I prefer a 250 USD account, or maybe a 500. Nothing more, because it's ok to play at 10 cents a pip.

I have been doing this for 9 months now, and to be honest, I am just now "Seeing The Light".

Please, do me a favor, and go to the Forex Beginners Q&A, and read at least all the stickys. I even wrote one, about 2 weeks ago (in the Psychology section), and if you read that piece, it should cut through a lot of time in your learning curve.

All I can ask is that you trust me on this. And also, that you trust the elders here at the forum. There is real gold in those sticky posts, and these people really are here to help.

One thing you will see is that there are 1 billion trading strategies, and even more people willing to sell you a system. Don't waste your time on any of it, as most things you need to know are on the net for free.

I have found that if you try out a few systems, use the parts that work for you, you will do much better. (You can have 20 people staring at the same chart, seeing 20 different things - that's what makes our market.) I have found recently that less is more.

One thing you should know right off the bat. It's not all about money. The game is what most of us like, and the money is the reward. If you constantly focus on P/L, you are going to lose. But if you are a poker player, you probably know this. Greed and Fear.....our two biggest enemies. (Even more so than hedge funds, central banks, etc.)

Remember this: TRADE TO LIVE, NOT LIVE TO TRADE. Freedom is something that is easy to give up doing this. As odd as that sounds, it's true.

Also, get ready for the psychological beating of a lifetime. Seriously.

But trust me, if you stick to it, there IS a method to all of this madness.

Best of luck, I look forward to reading your first 5 star post.
  • #9
  • Jul 27, 2007 6:33pm Jul 27, 2007 6:33pm
Quoting Gholimoli
Just saying hello...
Re-Read Clock's Post & then...

I would suggest that, If you have been successfull in e-poker, continue to play it and treat FX as a hobby for now.

Place 10% of your pkr profit in a Micro Account and trade away. {assuming 10% is easily expendable}

But! "Before you cut the Blue Wire..." {MASH Fans }

Pick a Demo Acct Platform and play with it until you understand the various methods of getting Into & Out of the Market.

Best O' British Luck & Welcome to THE FF. You have arrived at your Departation Point.

  • #10
  • Jul 27, 2007 11:29pm Jul 27, 2007 11:29pm
What's a Noob?
  • #11
  • Jul 28, 2007 5:08am Jul 28, 2007 5:08am
Hi,
Quoting edge540
What's a Noob?
http://www.google.com/search?btnG=Go...oob+definition

Best regards
Alan
  • #12
  • Last Post: Jul 28, 2007 5:57am Jul 28, 2007 5:57am
Thanks, I'm showing my age even txting is a challange!
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