The One: Price Action and Reaction

USDCAD short Thanks to @AlexC for his sharing.

closed +400
will re enter on sliding parallel to median line

mtf EURJPY
let me know if you see the light yet

EURUSD MTF

AUDUSD alternate C
There is no difference in time.. all is a spiral from the catalyst point.

USDJPY

I will be trying to post more in September. I'm very busy trading, and always learning .

ES

After price broke to the upside I adjusted this and found some good frequency
ES

ES

GBPUSD showing nice action on 1h fork. I've been testing PVSRA template minus envelopes on metatrader with good results. Thanks to @traderathome

SPY
i adjusted the AR set today and found good support/touches

A study in ES multi-time-frame analysis

ES follow up

SPY Action Reaction Set

Tech Stocks

look out below ES

When I tried to duplicate your chart on MT4, it was different, but the reason is simple enough:
Your chart is S&P 500 E-mini, a contract, which just had the quarterly contract switch Sep 8. After that switch, there was an immediate price jump higher. Then the price rose further and established a higher-high from which it fell.

When I compare that to my "US500" chart, which I would suppose is the S&P 500 cash price, the peak after the contract switch is a LOWER-high.

What is most interesting to me is that both charts may offer clues about turning points, even if the prices at the pivots are different. I would guess that the *times* of all the pivots are the same, certainly matching the same hour-of-the-day. So, if one wants to trade the E-mini, it would be best to also work up a chart on the cash-price chart as well.

First, a trading view E-mini chart, replicating yours. I circled two places at which ML resonance could have offered hunt-for-C confidence to go short at the eventual pitchfork C-pivots at where they formed. The red PF has excellent ML resonance exactly when red pt-C formed. The white PF has "ok" resonance at the ML when white pt-C forms, but the resonance looks even closer on a Daily chart instead of this H4 chart.

Your recent comment to "look out below ES" was, unfortunately, exactly at a pullback-or-reversal higher. You already drew a Fib for the pt-A to pt-B, and the eventual low is just shy of the -27.2% extension of it. I'm not showing it, but the recent low is a near perfect 133% External retracement of the white pt-B to pt-C. That's not generally known to be a "fib" value, but I find it does occur on occasion. I would at least agree that I don't see a strong reason for a pivot to have formed this recent low.




The cash chart is next. It is admittedly a busy chart, but I marked up several places with numbers and letters and ovals to pay attention to.

Pivot pt-A forms at 1.
At 2, this pullback later forms decent ML resonance that could have given a hunt-for-C short signal at "A". It isn't a great setup because there's no other obvious resonance, but when the pullback at "2" is as sharp/steep as it is, it adds weight to it as a pivot.
At 3, I added a couple of trendlines that extend forward. Eventually the recent low forms very near the upper line. No good reason to "know" this in advance, it just happens to have come true.
At 4, the pt-B forms for the black and green drawn pitchforks; the pt-B of the magenta Mod. Schiff; and it's a pt-A for the red PF.

At A, the peak occurs. As mentioned, resonance at 2 is a probable reason to go short here. Another reason is noted at "4.1", which is this first pullback low is exactly in line with where A eventually forms a pivot.

At B is when the E-mini contract switch occurs, but there is no big gap in price for the next bar, unlike the E-mini chart.
At B2 -- which I accidentally shifted a bit from what I intended -- I'll just mention that this small pivot is exactly in line with the pitchfork I've drawn using pivots at 1, 4, and C. So when "C" forms a pivot, it has TWO significant reasons for it, this being one of them.
At B3, at the gray circle, it excellent black AN+1.0 touch and bounce down, at least for several H4 bars. It turns into just a pullback. Just after that pullback, you can see that price busts higher through the black AN+1.0 line (aka "UML").
At C, this is a perfect touch of the 1-4-A magenta Mod. Schiff pitchfork MS+1.0 line. That alone is enough to go short, but my comment above regarding "C" is another. But actually, since this is a cash price chart, one doesn't trade it (right?). One would trade E-mini contracts, yes? So take the "signal" here as *timing* to go short on the E-mini chart, along with the E-mini chart hunt-for-C resonance of the white PF.

At D is a slight overshoot of the green 1-4-C ML, but it does react there for a pullback.

At E is an accurate pullback at the MS-1.0 line, but it does break through it on it's way to F.
At F, the current low forms. I mentioned the trendlines starting from 3, but I don't see any other really good reasons to have predicted this low. (I suppose that it had just reached and slightly exceeded one major target, which is the black ML (AN+0) line. Mission accomplished, so to speak, so time for a pullback (??).

At G, price bounced nicely at AN+0.5 (what I call a half-line).

USDCAD