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Harmonic Wave Journal

  • #321
  • Edited 9:59am May 24, 2007 9:41am | Edited 9:59am
Opportunity #E12/07 (re-entry)
EUR/USD Long
3 parts
Entry: 1.3418
Stop (initial): 1.3378

Mini wave 3 or C up.

Update 1: S/L tightened to 1.3423 (guarantees -4). US core durable goods order news in 12 mins. Good luck to all.
Update 2: Took 1st profit at 1.3458 (+31). S/L tightened to 1.3429 (guarantees +2).
Update 3: Out at 1.3429 (+2 x2). Re-entry at 1.3418, initial stop at 1.3378. S/L tightened to 1.3414 (guarantees -4). Here we go.
Tra-X
  • #322
  • May 24, 2007 10:53am May 24, 2007 10:53am
Quoting Traex
Opportunity #E12/07
EUR/USD Long
3 parts
Entry: 1.3427
Stop (initial): 1.3415

Mini wave 3 or C up.

Update 1: S/L tightened to 1.3423 (guarantees -4). US core durable goods order news in 12 mins. Good luck to all.
Update 2: Took 1st profit at 1.3458 (+31). S/L tightened to 1.3429 (guarantees +2).
What a trade not your biggest profit but handled brilliantly. Great entry, took some profits, tightened stop before news and got taken out by it.

Well done.
  • #323
  • May 24, 2007 12:45pm May 24, 2007 12:45pm
Quoting Vantage
What a trade not your biggest profit but handled brilliantly. Great entry, took some profits, tightened stop before news and got taken out by it.

Well done.
Thanks, Vantage; imo that's the way money management does its own wonder here.

Anyway, cable has formed a small expanding triangle today. Big chance the triangle is a wave 4 then, and final wave 5 up might have started now. Let's see.
Attached Image
Tra-X
  • #324
  • May 24, 2007 12:48pm May 24, 2007 12:48pm
Opportunity #E12/07 (re-entry)
EUR/USD Long
3 parts
Entry: 1.3418
Stop (initial): 1.3378

Mini wave 3 or C up.

Update 1: S/L tightened to 1.3423 (guarantees -4). US core durable goods order news in 12 mins. Good luck to all.
Update 2: Took 1st profit at 1.3458 (+31). S/L tightened to 1.3429 (guarantees +2).
Update 3: Out at 1.3429 (+2 x2). Re-entry at 1.3418, initial stop at 1.3378. S/L tightened to 1.3414 (guarantees -4). Here we go.
Update 4: Set TP1 to 1.3448 for +30.
Tra-X
  • #325
  • May 24, 2007 10:04pm May 24, 2007 10:04pm
Opportunity #E12/07 (re-entry)
EUR/USD Long
3 parts
Entry: 1.3418
Stop (initial): 1.3378

Mini wave 3 or C up.

Update 1: S/L tightened to 1.3423 (guarantees -4). US core durable goods order news in 12 mins. Good luck to all.
Update 2: Took 1st profit at 1.3458 (+31). S/L tightened to 1.3429 (guarantees +2).
Update 3: Out at 1.3429 (+2 x2). Re-entry at 1.3418, initial stop at 1.3378. S/L tightened to 1.3414 (guarantees -4). Here we go.
Update 4: Set TP1 to 1.3448 for +30.
Update 5: Wow, price went within 1 pip of TP1 and bounced and smashed S/L in asian session, then bounced back up (again, while I was away)! Good job for EUR/USD lol. Anyway, it's out at 1.3414 (-4 x3).

Total gain: +23
Tra-X
  • #326
  • May 25, 2007 1:12am May 25, 2007 1:12am
Quoting Traex
Anyway, cable has formed a small expanding triangle today. Big chance the triangle is a wave 4 then, and final wave 5 up might have started now. Let's see.
Looks like .9825 area gave solid support yesterday, .9840 seems to be support for this am.
  • #327
  • May 25, 2007 1:49am May 25, 2007 1:49am
Quoting Traex
lol speak English here alright. GU is giving unclear waves right now, not the time to make entry for me.
ok sir
  • #328
  • May 25, 2007 2:08am May 25, 2007 2:08am
Quoting Vantage
Looks like .9825 area gave solid support yesterday, .9840 seems to be support for this am.
It hasn't even touched the 9825 yet, and yesterday's choppiness cleared many orders at s/r levels around 9830-9880. 9930 is next if 9893 previous top is passed, altho it's uncommon it bottomed out during early asian session.
Tra-X
  • #329
  • May 25, 2007 2:34am May 25, 2007 2:34am
Quoting Traex
It hasn't even touched the 9825 yet, and yesterday's choppiness cleared many orders at s/r levels around 9830-9880. 9930 is next if 9893 previous top is passed, altho it's uncommon it bottomed out during early asian session.
Hi Traex I meant .9825 area, got down to .9829.
  • #330
  • May 25, 2007 2:53am May 25, 2007 2:53am
Quoting Vantage
Hi Traex I meant .9825 area, got down to .9829.
You're right there. There's a chance it'll be tested again today, both Europe and London opens failed to push thru 9880.
Tra-X
  • #331
  • May 26, 2007 1:03am May 26, 2007 1:03am
Weekly review and recap:

Total trades closed = 6, Winners = 6, Losers = 0
Total gains in winners = 660
Net gain this week = +660

No short term trade carried thru this weekend.

Medium-long term trades:
EUR/USD Short from 1.3595 currently at around +150, GBP/USD Short from 2.0100 currently at around +250

Another harvesting week for wave trades. Cable did jump up fast for over 200 pips from below 9700, prolly in the final impulse wave upwards before going down back to 1.9200 and beyond.
However EUR/GBP went down this week, making EUR/USD lagging behind for now, but at least it seems to have started going up as well, which I missed the entry again. I noticed this pair made bottom during early asian session twice already for this month.
USD/JPY still looks like it's ready at least for a major retracement down, just need to be aware that shorting this pair is a pain because of the swap interest.
GBP/JPY pushed thru 240 and reached just below 242, it starts to look toppish now, maybe ending its long wave upwards since 221 bottom early March. Same with USD/JPY, the swap interest for short side hurts.
Charts will be updated later.

Enjoy your weekend, everyone.
Tra-X
  • #332
  • May 27, 2007 6:35am May 27, 2007 6:35am
Cable formed a triangle yesterday, and was labeled as mini wave (magenta) B, it should be in mini wave C down now before finishing subwave (orange) 4 retracement.
Attached Image
Tra-X
  • #333
  • May 27, 2007 6:37am May 27, 2007 6:37am
This pair has just completed its 2.5 month-long wave from 115s? We'll see
Attached Image
Tra-X
  • #334
  • May 27, 2007 6:40am May 27, 2007 6:40am
Finally broke 239 and reached near 242 and made a new year's high. From the count the end of rally from 221 is coming near tho.

Good luck to everyone next week.
Attached Image
Tra-X
  • #335
  • May 27, 2007 10:53pm May 27, 2007 10:53pm
Great work Traex!!! Keep it going.
I like to compare my wave count to others.
Excellent pip gains last week for you!!!!!!

I'm Waiting for GBP/USD to drop in the fourth wave to go long,
Some where in the 1.9813-1.902 area, but don't see to much
price action with the holiday. Could be a long drawn out fourth.

Again Great job!!!!!!!
I found the guy who keeps losing me money. Its "ME" SHOOT HIM!
  • #336
  • May 27, 2007 11:24pm May 27, 2007 11:24pm
Just thought I'd ask your option on EUR/USD

On a weekly/daily chart
I'm looking at this retracemant as a Wave 4 of 3 of C.
With Wave C starting at the 1.2482 low in October.
The projected target for Wave 5 of 3 would be 1.3900+-
This would be in the larger Wave B that started back in
November of 2005.

Don't laugh at my count as I am still learning
but thought I would run it by you ,as you seem to have a good
handle on the wave counts!

THX
AZ

PS - Haven't figured out how to post a chart yet, sorry.
I found the guy who keeps losing me money. Its "ME" SHOOT HIM!
  • #337
  • May 28, 2007 12:52am May 28, 2007 12:52am
Quoting AZ-Heat
On a weekly/daily chart
I'm looking at this retracemant as a Wave 4 of 3 of C.
With Wave C starting at the 1.2482 low in October.
The projected target for Wave 5 of 3 would be 1.3900+-
This would be in the larger Wave B that started back in
November of 2005.
Hi AZ-Heat, thanks and welcome to the journal.

For longer term EUR/USD count, there are 2 possible counts: a 5-wave ascending triangle wave B from 1.1639 bottom in Nov 2005, or an A-B-C wave B from the same bottom. Looks like you put in an A-B-C there. Well either case, the big wave B is prolly ending soon, unless both counts are wrong. No wave 5 end projection here, price action will determine its end.
All the best to your trades.

PS: To post charts here, if you use metatrader, save your chart by choosing 'File' then 'Save as Picture', then choose 'Active Chart' with pixel size of 600 x 600 max, then 'Save'. In the post reply window here, see the attachment button just beside the smilies button, and attach your chart file.
Tra-X
  • #338
  • May 28, 2007 10:24am May 28, 2007 10:24am
Quoting Traex
Cable did jump up fast for over 200 pips from below 9700, prolly in the final impulse wave upwards before going down back to 1.9200 and beyond.
Is there a time frame on this? Yes I agree drawing long term trend lines etc etc that 1.9200 is a possibility but cannot see what would do this any time soon with interest rates likely to come down in US this year and UK still having inflation worries and possibly still higher rates.

Do you have a view or just look at your charts and decide?

Another brilliant week very well done.
  • #339
  • May 28, 2007 10:46am May 28, 2007 10:46am
Quoting Vantage
Is there a time frame on this? Yes I agree drawing long term trend lines etc etc that 1.9200 is a possibility but cannot see what would do this any time soon with interest rates likely to come down in US this year and UK still having inflation worries and possibly still higher rates.

Do you have a view or just look at your charts and decide?

Another brilliant week very well done.
Hi Vantage, the timeframes are 4h and daily; anyway this final impulse wave upwards might target 2.0400 or beyond first before ending, but technical-wise time is running out fast. I agree that fundamentals still point to the ever stronger cable tho. But who knows.
What the most boring trading day ever!! Today is definitely a joke.
Tra-X
  • #340
  • May 28, 2007 9:09pm May 28, 2007 9:09pm
Opportunity #E13/07
EUR/USD Long
3 parts
Entry: 1.3423
Stop (initial): 1.3410

End of mini wave 2 (?).
Tra-X
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