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Low Risk, High Reward Trading Experiment

  • #1,881
  • Edited 8:22pm Nov 23, 2006 8:02pm | Edited 8:22pm
Thursday November 23 at 21:00 ET

I will repost my previous AUD/CAD trade signal. This still looks like a fine opportunity to short at either .8880 or .8890 after a very long trend upwards that has been underway since September 28 and will have carried the price up 590 pips.

_____________________________________________________________-
_____________________________________________________________

Monday November 20 at 17:00 ET

Trade Signal #246 Sell AUD/CAD at .8890
Stop is .8925
Target is .8660
Risk is 44 pips
Reward is 221 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 5.0 to 1

For research purposes only.<!-- / message --><!-- controls -->

Note: the entry price should be reached in a few days, and as early as November 21.
  • #1,882
  • Nov 23, 2006 8:20pm Nov 23, 2006 8:20pm
Thursday November 23 at 21:15 ET

An alternative hypothesis of the wave count on EUR/JPY indicates that it will reverse from the recent high of 150.87 and decline to about 150.00 thus completing an extended Wave Three downwards.

By studying what this pair does next, we will learn about EW Theory and develop our skills at strategising.

_________________________________________________
_________________________________________________

Previous prediction based on alternative hypothesis:

Trade Signal #251 Buy EUR/JPY at 150.56 <hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1"> <!-- / icon and title --><!-- message --> Thursday November 23 at 6:30 ET

We did a wrong wave count before on EUR/JPY, but won the trade nonetheless. EUR/JPY rose in a clear five wave set to 151.66, within the range which we expected it to reach. We had temporarily exited the short trade to wait for it to reach the top. We failed to issue a re-entry signal because we were distracted, but for those who recognised the top at 151.66 and took the short position, we believe the bottom of the trend has just been reached at 150.56, 110 pips lower.

It is now possible to enter a buy position at this price of 150.56, with a target of 151.75 or higher. The stop is at 150.19, making the risk 41 pips, and the minimum reward 115 pips. That makes the reward : risk ratio only 2.8, which is not sufficient to comply with our standard for live trades. But for research purposes we will label this Trade Signal #251 Buy EUR/JPY at 150.56
  • #1,883
  • Edited 10:04pm Nov 23, 2006 9:50pm | Edited 10:04pm
Quoting itme
NewbieTrader101,



Another person I know who employs essentially the same system, but focuses explusively on the EUR/USD, reports 13 months of trading daily with 100% winning trades, with an average reward : risk ratio of over 10:1. Another, less expert trader using this approach averaged 48% daily return on capital last week. Obviously this approach requires many months of study and practise, and is only suitable for serious, full time traders with alot of guts and perhaps a sizeable dose of insanity.
itme

are these typos in your reply to me in your post 1860.

13 months of trading daily with 100% winning trades, with an average reward : risk ratio of over 10:1. Is this correct?

Another, less expert trader using this approach averaged 48% daily return on capital last week. Is this correct?

How can I invest my moneys with these guys?
13 months x 20 days per month x 100% winning trades x 10x winning reward . would equal about 20 trillion dollars
I think you are pulling my leg, or maybe something else.
  • #1,884
  • Nov 23, 2006 9:54pm Nov 23, 2006 9:54pm
roflmbo...

Quoting newbietrader101
are these typos in your reply to me in your post 1860.

13 months of trading daily with 100% winning trades, with an average reward : risk ratio of over 10:1. Is this correct?

Another, less expert trader using this approach averaged 48% daily return on capital last week. Is this correct?

How can I invest my moneys with these guys?
13 months x 20 days per month x 100% winning trades x 10x winning reward . would equal about 20 trillion dollars
I think you are pulling my leg, or maybe something else.
  • #1,885
  • Nov 23, 2006 10:25pm Nov 23, 2006 10:25pm
hi itme

i have not taken a good look at this thread except for the latest two pages, because i know nothing about elliot--so trying to understand the wave count would be hard.

i plan to read this thread more in depth after i have studied EW a bit more.

question: where do you get 30 year forex charts?!

Quoting itme
HI Krkvak,

Happy Thanksgiving to you, and all other living creatures, including turkeys!

I would love to post some EW numbered charts, but I barely even have them. My current charts are totally marked up with all kinds of esoteric data that only I could decipher, with only the odd number thrown in.

Also, I'm so short of time keeping up with this market with so many pairs, on so many time frames, all moving continuously and offering key opportunity doorways to wealth and mastery, that the posting of charts has been impossible to keep up with.

It takes quite a while to get a numbered chart all ready and presentable. Also, it's misleading to offer just one chart, because to get the count right you have to study the 30 year, 10 year, 6 month, one month, and 5 day perspective. So an accurate wave count is a massive undertaking. Many people don't seem to realise this, and approach EW theory in a cavalier fashion, as if it was an indicator that just crossed a line or reached a key value. Far from it. It's more like doing a complete personality profile of a human being, with many factors involved.

On a positive note, my new compluter and monitor layout and new systems of analysis, monitoring and tracking should lighten my burden and greatly increase my accuracy of analysis.

I looked at the Wolfe Wave thread, and see why it works sometimes. It is exploiting one aspect of Elliott Wave theory. If you expand your model, then you will be able to understand when it will work, and even why. It is actually very clever.

Question for you: can you make any sense of the Elliott Wave descriptions that I offer in my predictions?
  • #1,886
  • Nov 23, 2006 11:30pm Nov 23, 2006 11:30pm
Quoting clam61
hi itme

i have not taken a good look at this thread except for the latest two pages, because i know nothing about elliot--so trying to understand the wave count would be hard.

i plan to read this thread more in depth after i have studied EW a bit more.

question: where do you get 30 year forex charts?!
You can get 25 year price data for MT or other software at this site

http://www.alpari-idc.ru/en/dc/databank
  • #1,887
  • Nov 23, 2006 11:47pm Nov 23, 2006 11:47pm
Itme,

your describtions in your predictions are clear and make sense, but if I want to do anything close to what the master of EW does, I need to try to do my own predictions, which is not easy, at least not at my level. Thank you for the great inside of what it takes to analyze one pair, which to me means I need to do more reading, trying, analyzing and failing, so at the end, perhaps, ultimatelly I'll succeed.

Please keep posting your predictions, they are helpful even without charts.

Thank you.

Krkvak
  • #1,888
  • Edited 2:59am Nov 24, 2006 2:17am | Edited 2:59am
Performance of high accuracy trading by scientific methodology.

Warning, if tales of skillful trading make you incensed, then do not read any more of this message. If you are convinced that you know everything that can be known about the Forex field, then stop reading, as everything that follows will, according to your fixed belief, be false by definition.

.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
The greatest trader of all time employs his own individualised version of the Q-E trading system. The Q system is my invention, the E stands for Elliott Wave. (The Elliott Wave theory is amazing in its precision and consistency - if you understand it properly and know how to apply it. The Q system is probably even better!) He also employs many other scientifically tested analytical procedures to assess and analyse the market's movements, both in terms of time, volume and price. This man has applied scientific analysis to develop a perfect trading system that eliminates losses and maximizes gains while minimizing risk. Through much study and practise, building on a fruitful career in the engineering field, he has mastered EW analysis, as well as Q analysis. You don't need to believe this, but everyone should be open minded nonetheless.

His average number of pips earned per day is 75. One and one half years ago it was 50. The size of risk is 3 to 10 pips per trade, but usually only 3. Sometimes the trade reverses and goes past the entry price, but not before he has moved his stop to a break even level. Thus only 85% of trades are winners, while the remainder are break even. Each trade has an average reward : risk ratio of about 15. He employs a Risk Factor of about 0.5%. Thus the return on capital per trade is .005 * 15 = 7.5%, which is accomplished about three times per week. The result is multiplication of capital by about 2 to 4 times per month.

The Risk Factor has been progressively reduced over the period of the trading program, while the performance has improved. Over 16 months the capital has grown from $2,500 to over $50 million by adhering to this method. There have only been two losing trades in 16 months, both small. One was due to forces beyond his control. (Someone else was using his trading platform.)

By careful application of statistical and engineering principles the Forex market can thereby be mastered. This man is like a brain surgeon in the care he employs with his analysis, entries and exits. It is extremely complex and detailed. He lives and breathes the EUR/USD, and has done so for several years. He is a genius, and an extremely accomplished business man, scientist, and is also very accomplished in a variety of other fields. I don't believe that anyone will ever be able to match his skill, discipline and mastery. But they don't need to. By adopting the correct approach, by careful study, research, training and practise, by eliminating guesswork and all aspects of emotion and gambling, and through faith in the order implicit in all natural phenomena, the industrious, intelligent forex engineer can make consistent, sizeable gains on a daily and weekly basis. If one only wins 50% of one's trades, and one's reward : risk ratio is 3 : 1, then one may employ a risk factor of 10% and thus multiply one's capital by 23 times in 40 trades. At three trades per week, that will be a 13 week trading program, yielding 27.3% return per week. In 50 weeks of hard work $2500 in initial capital will grow to $440 million. However, this isn't possible, because the brokers will put roadblocks in the way. But by managing things properly and reducing one's risk factor progressively one can make tens of millions of dollars.

No, you cannot invest money with these guys. You will have to learn for yourself and manage your own trades. They are not licensed to trade other people's money, and have no reason to perform that service. The second person I refered to is a humble student with a reckless money management approach - he employs maximum risk factor instead of minimum risk factor. He makes about 40 pips per day employing a 20 pip stop with a 25% risk factor which results in an average gain of 40 / 20 * .25 = 50% return on capital per day. He may not be able to sustain this performance, because his mastery of the systems and of himself does not equal that of the master.

I don't want to enter into a debate on these matters on this thread. I'm just mentioning them to give interested people a vision of possibilities by following a scientific methodology of trading. If people want to discuss this further, then I suggest they post on the "From $7 to $7.7 Trillion in Two Weeks Trading Program" Thread which is in the Traders Lounge section of this site - labelled "Satire".

If the following link doesn't work, then go to advanced search and put in satire or trillion and the author itme

http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...ghlight=satire

I just tested the above thread, and it is closed, so if anyone wants to discuss the financial implications of high performance, low risk : high reward trading systems, then they will have to start a new thread in the appropriate section, whatever that is.
______________________________________

Originally Posted by newbietrader101
are these typos in your reply to me in your post 1860?

13 months of trading daily with 100% winning trades, with an average reward : risk ratio of over 10:1. Is this correct?

Another, less expert trader using this approach averaged 48% daily return on capital last week. Is this correct?

How can I invest my moneys with these guys?
13 months x 20 days per month x 100% winning trades x 10x winning reward . would equal about 20 trillion dollars
I think you are pulling my leg, or maybe something else.
  • #1,889
  • Edited 3:02am Nov 24, 2006 2:43am | Edited 3:02am
The market just took off like it had just heard some major news. Sometimes it does this for no discernible reason. I have some theories. Does anyone else?

This is very good for the likelihood of our trade signal experiments being successful.

My practise account just increased in value by more than 30%.

My GBP/USD trade is up 160 pips, and my EUR/USD and USD/CHF practise trades are up about 110 pips. USD/JPY is up 55 pips.
  • #1,890
  • Nov 24, 2006 2:46am Nov 24, 2006 2:46am
looks like eur/usd broke through it's june 5th high of 2981. i'm guessing thats the only reason? i'm extremely tired, and thought maybe i was imagining things lol. one minute im looking at the chart and all looks normal, next theres a 100pip candle sitting there.

Quoting itme
The market just took off like it had just heard some major news. Sometimes it does this for no discernible reason. I have some theories. Does anyone else?

This is very good for the likelihood of our trade signal experiments being successful.

My practise account just increased in value by more than 30%.
- nick andre -
  • #1,891
  • Nov 24, 2006 4:06am Nov 24, 2006 4:06am
Itme, it's very nice that your practice account is up - but can you enlighten us about the revised wave count? eg GBP/USD

Everything has overshot, and it is Thanksgiving holiday so thin volume, and so on - but is this the likely end of Wave 5 (looks like topping out now...?)
  • #1,892
  • Nov 24, 2006 4:19am Nov 24, 2006 4:19am
itme, i dont know if you mentioned this before, but this guy has mastered the Q system, which is your invention...right?

so you know his exact methedology? if not, why does he not tell you.

Quoting itme
Performance of high accuracy trading by scientific methodology.

Warning, if tales of skillful trading make you incensed, then do not read any more of this message. If you are convinced that you know everything that can be known about the Forex field, then stop reading, as everything that follows will, according to your fixed belief, be false by definition.

.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
The greatest trader of all time employs his own individualised version of the Q-E trading system. The Q system is my invention, the E stands for Elliott Wave. (The Elliott Wave theory is amazing in its precision and consistency - if you understand it properly and know how to apply it. The Q system is probably even better!) He also employs many other scientifically tested analytical procedures to assess and analyse the market's movements, both in terms of time, volume and price. This man has applied scientific analysis to develop a perfect trading system that eliminates losses and maximizes gains while minimizing risk. Through much study and practise, building on a fruitful career in the engineering field, he has mastered EW analysis, as well as Q analysis. You don't need to believe this, but everyone should be open minded nonetheless.

His average number of pips earned per day is 75. One and one half years ago it was 50. The size of risk is 3 to 10 pips per trade, but usually only 3. Sometimes the trade reverses and goes past the entry price, but not before he has moved his stop to a break even level. Thus only 85% of trades are winners, while the remainder are break even. Each trade has an average reward : risk ratio of about 15. He employs a Risk Factor of about 0.5%. Thus the return on capital per trade is .005 * 15 = 7.5%, which is accomplished about three times per week. The result is multiplication of capital by about 2 to 4 times per month.

The Risk Factor has been progressively reduced over the period of the trading program, while the performance has improved. Over 16 months the capital has grown from $2,500 to over $50 million by adhering to this method. There have only been two losing trades in 16 months, both small. One was due to forces beyond his control. (Someone else was using his trading platform.)

By careful application of statistical and engineering principles the Forex market can thereby be mastered. This man is like a brain surgeon in the care he employs with his analysis, entries and exits. It is extremely complex and detailed. He lives and breathes the EUR/USD, and has done so for several years. He is a genius, and an extremely accomplished business man, scientist, and is also very accomplished in a variety of other fields. I don't believe that anyone will ever be able to match his skill, discipline and mastery. But they don't need to. By adopting the correct approach, by careful study, research, training and practise, by eliminating guesswork and all aspects of emotion and gambling, and through faith in the order implicit in all natural phenomena, the industrious, intelligent forex engineer can make consistent, sizeable gains on a daily and weekly basis. If one only wins 50% of one's trades, and one's reward : risk ratio is 3 : 1, then one may employ a risk factor of 10% and thus multiply one's capital by 23 times in 40 trades. At three trades per week, that will be a 13 week trading program, yielding 27.3% return per week. In 50 weeks of hard work $2500 in initial capital will grow to $440 million. However, this isn't possible, because the brokers will put roadblocks in the way. But by managing things properly and reducing one's risk factor progressively one can make tens of millions of dollars.

No, you cannot invest money with these guys. You will have to learn for yourself and manage your own trades. They are not licensed to trade other people's money, and have no reason to perform that service. The second person I refered to is a humble student with a reckless money management approach - he employs maximum risk factor instead of minimum risk factor. He makes about 40 pips per day employing a 20 pip stop with a 25% risk factor which results in an average gain of 40 / 20 * .25 = 50% return on capital per day. He may not be able to sustain this performance, because his mastery of the systems and of himself does not equal that of the master.

I don't want to enter into a debate on these matters on this thread. I'm just mentioning them to give interested people a vision of possibilities by following a scientific methodology of trading. If people want to discuss this further, then I suggest they post on the "From $7 to $7.7 Trillion in Two Weeks Trading Program" Thread which is in the Traders Lounge section of this site - labelled "Satire".

If the following link doesn't work, then go to advanced search and put in satire or trillion and the author itme

http://www.forexfactory.com/forexfor...ghlight=satire

I just tested the above thread, and it is closed, so if anyone wants to discuss the financial implications of high performance, low risk : high reward trading systems, then they will have to start a new thread in the appropriate section, whatever that is.
______________________________________

Originally Posted by newbietrader101
are these typos in your reply to me in your post 1860?

13 months of trading daily with 100% winning trades, with an average reward : risk ratio of over 10:1. Is this correct?

Another, less expert trader using this approach averaged 48% daily return on capital last week. Is this correct?

How can I invest my moneys with these guys?
13 months x 20 days per month x 100% winning trades x 10x winning reward . would equal about 20 trillion dollars
I think you are pulling my leg, or maybe something else.
  • #1,893
  • Nov 24, 2006 4:40am Nov 24, 2006 4:40am
Quoting itme
Wednesday November 22 at 8:45 ET

A careful re-examination of GBP/USD indicates that the most probable reversal point for the uptrend is 1.9130. This means that the stop should be 15 pips above this price at 1.9145. The recent high is 1.9136, which is 10 pips above our incorrect previous stop.

Adjust stop for Trade Signal #247A Sell GBP/USD at 1.9098 to 1.9145

___________________________________________

Previous trade signals:



Re-enter Trade Signal #247A Sell GBP/USD at 1.9098 <HR style="COLOR: rgb(209,209,225)" SIZE=1>Wednesday November 22 at 7:40 ET


Lifetime Trader was correct. Perhaps due to the influence of the interest rate hike in the UK, GBP/USD received a special boost today which caused our stop at 1.9093 to be met.

Re-enter Trade Signal #247A Sell GBP/USD at 1.9098

New stop is 1.9126
Target is 1.8750
________________________________________

Wednesday November 22 at 3:30 ET
Trade Signal #247 Sell GBP/USD at 1.9060
Stop is 1.9093
Target is 1.8750
Risk is 37 pips
Reward is 306 pips
Reward : Risk ratio is 8.3 to 1

For research purposes only.
Hello Itme,

As you know from my pms to you that I follow your thread religiously :o)

Did I miss your going long call on GBP/USD because you mentioned you were up 160 pips on the pair in post #1081. The last call on GBP/USD was the attached post you made and I was under the impression you favoured a short on this pair. When and why (as in what theory or indicator) made you decide to go long. Would really apreciate to understand your thinking.

Thanks in Advance!
  • #1,894
  • Nov 24, 2006 4:41am Nov 24, 2006 4:41am
The master trader has worked independently on the Q system for one year, plus Elliott Wave and several other tools. Also, he has integrated them in his own fashion. We are following parallel paths, but independently. He has offered to share some of his discoveries with me, but hasn't been able to find the time yet.
  • #1,895
  • Edited 5:15am Nov 24, 2006 4:54am | Edited 5:15am
Hi Jordan. Thanks for your question. I will try to recapitulate.

I thought that 1.9130 would be the top of the GBP/USD move, but the movement overshot it by a country mile, taking out our stop and requiring a complete re-think of the Elliott Wave count, etc.

Upon re-examination I decided it was going up for one more wave of the Wave B corrective wave, targeting a modest target. But then it shot up strongly for no apparent reason.

I didn't consider the recent long position a viable low risk : high reward trade due to the fact that there was no way of knowing that it would be a large move, which was improbable. I said that the top of the wave, when it was complete, would be the next system compliant trade opportunity - to take a long trade down. I think that entry should be at about 1.9360. Stop is 1.9405

The following analysis of EUR/USD from earlier today also applies equally well to GBP/USD. The two currencies basically do the same thing 95% of the time, just in different proportions:

EUR/USD prediction for Thursday November 23 at 15:00 ET

Our last prediction of November 21, two days ago, was based on an Elliott Wave hypothesis that was incorrect. The price declined to within 5 pips of our bottom at 1.2790, but then proceeded far past our target which was 1.2876, forming what looks like an incomplete 1-2-3 wave set which needs to become a complete 1-2-3-4-5 wave set by rising one more time.

The recent high is 1.2974, almost 100 pips higher than our upside target, and this point forms a new recent high, showing a new upwards impulse wave is underway. Our trade shorting EUR/USD at 1.2876 was obviously stopped out.

Since rising 179 pips in a larger Wave 3 upwards to its recent high, EUR/USD has fallen 35 pips to a recent low of 1.2939 and traced out a potentially complete A-B-C correction pattern.

The last or fifth wave upwards of this upwards Wave 3 should extent to at least 1.2984. However it is more likely to reach 1.2994, 1.3010, or 1.3030.

We will monitor the Elliott Wave patterns and try to discern the ultimate high of this fifth wave of the larger Third Wave up. This point will be an excellent low risk : high reward opportunity to sell EUR/USD according to our system while it traces out a larger Fourth Wave pattern down.

If the final wave reaches 1.3030, which we believe it will, then the fifth wave of the Third Wave will have travelled 91 pips, which is a typical travel for a fifth wave on EUR/USD.

The larger downwards Fourth Wave should descend to between 1.2770 and 1.2600, depending on world events, macro-economic news, and market sentiment. It will trace out a complex A-B-C wave pattern in all likelihood.

Authority opinion: John Kicklighter, Currency Analyst with DailyFX,who possesses "proprietary volume data", says: "The drop in expected market action is not far-fetched though as fundamental indicators are in short supply this week, and the number of key releases in the previous period failed to seriously move the market. Looking to the vols indicators, the drop in the long-term read suggests the recent pick up in price action will not evolve into a trend. Furthermore, history shows a swing lower in the spread usually results in a market turn, both calling for 1.30 resistance to hold."

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/strate...4240031933.html

p.s. - EUR/USD did indeed rise from the recent low of 1.2939 and rose strongly to an interim high of 1.3086, quite a bit higher than our projected targets of 1.2994, 1.3010, or 1.3030. This is as of Friday November 24 at 4:45 ET.
  • #1,896
  • Nov 24, 2006 6:14am Nov 24, 2006 6:14am
Friday November 24 at 7:00 ET

Exit the following EUR/JPY long trade at 151.70 to take 111 pips of profit and re-enter following a large A-B-C corrective wave.
___________________________________________________
___________________________________________________

Previous trade signal:

Trade Signal #251 Buy EUR/JPY at 150.56 <hr style="color: rgb(209, 209, 225);" size="1"> <!-- / icon and title --><!-- message --> Thursday November 23 at 6:30 ET

We did a wrong wave count before on EUR/JPY, but won the trade nonetheless. EUR/JPY rose in a clear five wave set to 151.66, within the range which we expected it to reach. We had temporarily exited the short trade to wait for it to reach the top. We failed to issue a re-entry signal because we were distracted, but for those who recognised the top at 151.66 and took the short position, we believe the bottom of the trend has just been reached at 150.56, 110 pips lower.

It is now possible to enter a buy position at this price of 150.56, with a target of 151.75 or higher. The stop is at 150.19, making the risk 41 pips, and the minimum reward 115 pips. That makes the reward : risk ratio only 2.8, which is not sufficient to comply with our standard for live trades. But for research purposes we will label this Trade Signal #251 Buy EUR/JPY at 150.56

p.s. the lowest price reached was 150.32, 13 pips above the stop.
The latest high is 151.47 as of November 24 at 4:00 ET
  • #1,897
  • Nov 24, 2006 6:56am Nov 24, 2006 6:56am
Friday November 24 at 8:00 ET

Trade Signal #253 Sell GBP/USD at 1.9360

Stop is 1.9405

Target is 1.9050

Risk is 49 pips

Reward is 306 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is 6.2 to 1

For research purposes only.

We are trading what we believe is the first wave (the A wave, which is a 1-2-3-4-5 ) of a downwards wave 4. It could come down as far as 1.8050
  • #1,898
  • Nov 24, 2006 7:22am Nov 24, 2006 7:22am
Friday November 24 at 8:15 ET

GBP/USD should rise up now from the current price of 1.9307 to 1.9365 where it will reverse and head down several hundred pips.
  • #1,899
  • Nov 24, 2006 7:27am Nov 24, 2006 7:27am
Friday November 24 at 8:30 ET

Trade Signal #254 Buy USD/CAD at 1.1300

Stop is 1.1259

Target is 1.1500

Risk is 45 pips

Reward is 196 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is 4.3 to 1

For research purposes only.

We are trading what we believe is the fifth wave (which is a 1-2-3-4-5 ) of an upwards Wave 5.
<!-- / message --><!-- controls -->
  • #1,900
  • Edited 11:51am Nov 24, 2006 7:40am | Edited 11:51am
Friday November 24 at 8:30 ET

Trade Signal #255 Buy USD/JPY at 115.55

Stop is 115.19

Target is 117.50

Risk is 40 pips

Reward is 191 pips

Reward : Risk ratio is 4.8 to 1

For research purposes only.

We are trading what we believe is the first or A wave of a large Fourth Wave up.
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