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The Swamp

  • #110,821
  • Edited 8:43pm Jul 30, 2023 8:30pm | Edited 8:43pm
Quoting bzzz
{quote} WHat I see is 1.0990 maybe tested during Asia session, if it breaks then 1.0942 maybe threatned and like you said if closed below it may become resistance but if 1.0990 holds then bulls appetit may take it to test 1.1045 again and if broken then 1.1090 area is where I will be looking to short
I dont know if 1044 will hold, because 1.0942 is a decent support number. But as far as trading goes. I have my money on 1044 holding. Or at least, I will have at 1035.. Maybe overnight or into early NY 1035 is reached. If I dont get the 1035 entry. It auto bear to test 0942. 0993 is that center.
When i say hold. I dont mean it cant go a little higher than 1044. One has to calculate the target, and figure their own stop loss. I'm figuring pa at 1035 has a normally/average chance of being hit. 1044 has a normally above average chance to hold resistance. But it may still reach 1054/55. As long as it drops back to below 1044, and 1035 and closes. I should be ok. To target 0942 area.
I said what I think. I said where my money is, and where I may be wrong. I think pa is bearish. Out of caution with 0942, and month end. I know the bulls can come. But there is no free lunch here. Bulls have to take 1044 or get out the way.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #110,822
  • Jul 30, 2023 8:51pm Jul 30, 2023 8:51pm
Quoting imwim
{quote} CHF index just reversed to down trend on H4 timeframe at rollover time...I'll buy USDCHF till reach the target of 0.90xxx which is 300 pips away from the current week close price 0.87006 on Oanda...
I'm not trading it.. overnight 8675 may be a buy. It may also support the chf. As long as it rising above .8935, I think bullish. .8720 may be a short for tp .8675/76+spread.
Second choice is day average at .8733 into R2 at .8739. I dont have a horse in this race. But its similar to eu 1035/44 pullback
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #110,823
  • Jul 30, 2023 9:44pm Jul 30, 2023 9:44pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} I'm not trading it.. overnight 8675 may be a buy. It may also support the chf. As long as it rising above .8935, I think bullish. .8720 may be a short for tp .8675/76+spread. Second choice is day average at .8733 into R2 at .8739. I dont have a horse in this race. But its similar to eu 1035/44 pullback
After UBS has completed the acquisition of Credit Suisse, there are 2 kings in the market, USD and CHF...after that, the trading are different on all pairs, we have the other pairs rotating around 2 suns...I expect an increase in flash crash moments on some currencies...
I am who I am
  • #110,824
  • Jul 31, 2023 1:15am Jul 31, 2023 1:15am
Quoting Boulder
7/31 Monday trading levels.. last day of the month for the month end rebalancing... 1.1104 1.1064 1.1039 1.1000 PP 1.0960 1.0936 1.0896 next to print 1.1039 or 1.1000
I dont know if it will bounce at 1.1000 pp. If it did, 1035/44 may be attracted to. It may provide a 1.1035/44 short.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #110,825
  • Jul 31, 2023 1:28am Jul 31, 2023 1:28am
Quoting imwim
{quote} After UBS has completed the acquisition of Credit Suisse, there are 2 kings in the market, USD and CHF...after that, the trading are different on all pairs, we have the other pairs rotating around 2 suns...I expect an increase in flash crash moments on some currencies...
USD/Chf It didnt make .8720/21+. So i would of missed any pending short order. The high atm .8719. I think it will be attracted to .8675/76
It may be a buy .8676/35. Simar to eu 1035/44 being a sell to me.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #110,826
  • Jul 31, 2023 2:15am Jul 31, 2023 2:15am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} USD/Chf It didnt make .8720/21+. So i would of missed any pending short order. The high atm .8719. I think it will be attracted to .8675/76 It may be a buy .8676/35. Simar to eu 1035/44 being a sell to me. {image}
typo simular
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #110,827
  • Jul 31, 2023 3:28am Jul 31, 2023 3:28am
bil option for the week,,
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  • #110,828
  • Jul 31, 2023 3:56am Jul 31, 2023 3:56am
Quoting Boulder
bil option for the week,, {image}
If it can make 1035/44. Those option levels after, wouldn't hurt my feelings.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #110,829
  • Jul 31, 2023 4:02am Jul 31, 2023 4:02am
Right or wrong I'm short at 1035. As posted Friday/weekend.
ADR on a drop may be 0957.
But if bearish, the month may want -0942. The month closes today. If it would close below 0942. That's a further bearish indication.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #110,830
  • Edited 5:22am Jul 31, 2023 5:09am | Edited 5:22am
Quoting gatorinla
Right or wrong I'm short at 1035. As posted Friday/weekend. ADR on a drop may be 0957. But if bearish, the month may want -0942. The month closes today. If it would close below 0942. That's a further bearish indication. {image}
Today, EUR index is in buy mode, while CHF index is in sell mode...both EURUSD sell and USDCHF buy are limited to reach the ADR on the way...

And the news...Euro zone pulls out of dip with higher growth than expected...
https://www.reuters.com/markets/euro...ed-2023-07-31/
I am who I am
  • #110,831
  • Jul 31, 2023 5:43am Jul 31, 2023 5:43am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} If it can make 1035/44. Those option levels after, wouldn't hurt my feelings.
I got in, let’s see,,,
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  • #110,832
  • Jul 31, 2023 6:04am Jul 31, 2023 6:04am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} I got in, let’s see,,, {image}
If its going our way. It should be soon. Its close to 1044.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #110,833
  • Jul 31, 2023 6:06am Jul 31, 2023 6:06am
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #110,834
  • Jul 31, 2023 7:20am Jul 31, 2023 7:20am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} I got in, let’s see,,, {image}
Still hold the shorts,,, lets see bears can reverse the two uptrend
M15 at 1.1004
M30 at 1.0989
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  • #110,835
  • Jul 31, 2023 7:24am Jul 31, 2023 7:24am
Quoting Boulder
7/31 Monday trading levels.. last day of the month for the month end rebalancing... 1.1104 1.1064 1.1039 1.1000 PP 1.0960 1.0936 1.0896 next to print 1.1039 or 1.1000

7/31 Monday trading levels.. last day of the month for the month end rebalancing...

1.1104
1.1064
1.1039

1.1000 PP

1.0960
1.0936
1.0896

1.1039 printed, next to print 1.1000 or 1.1064

  • #110,836
  • Jul 31, 2023 7:35am Jul 31, 2023 7:35am
kiwi 0.6213/25 R is getting close, it may be ready for a run to 0.6168/69.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #110,837
  • Jul 31, 2023 7:40am Jul 31, 2023 7:40am
The chf may run to 0.8675/76. That may make eu test 1044/57.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #110,838
  • Jul 31, 2023 7:56am Jul 31, 2023 7:56am
Quoting gatorinla
The chf may run to 0.8675/76. That may make eu test 1044/57. {image}
This level 0.8675/76 means almost a new daily low on USDCHF (wide spread on weekly open time), but no any news to support this movement for today...I see 0.8675/76 as a possible August low on USDCHF, and 0.8975/76 as a possible August high on USDCHF...
I am who I am
  • #110,839
  • Jul 31, 2023 8:01am Jul 31, 2023 8:01am
Quoting imwim
{quote} This level 0.8675/76 means a new daily low on USDCHF, but no any news to support this movement for today...I see 0.8675/76 as a possible August low on USDCHF, and 0.8975/76 as a possible August high on USDCHF...
The CHF is not there yet 8675t. But it may be support for the next 2 hs. It may not get there. There may not be enough time or room. If the eu can not test 1044. The bottom for chf may already be set at 8635 area. Eu top at 1044. At least this is the line I see. It will likely harden with a close today below 0942.Friday when eu reached 1044 that was a potential top. I may be wrong. But this is my risk to reward plan.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #110,840
  • Jul 31, 2023 8:02am Jul 31, 2023 8:02am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} Still hold the shorts,,, lets see bears can reverse the two uptrend M15 at 1.1004 M30 at 1.0989 {image}
Bears need take out M5 trend stop at 1.1018
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