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The Swamp

  • #110,801
  • Jul 28, 2023 10:23am Jul 28, 2023 10:23am
Quoting Boulder
{quote} Nowadays we wont see those kind comments in TV shows anymore . Too many people too sensivetive about eveything ...
Oh well this is the movie version.. We still put it in movies.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #110,802
  • Jul 28, 2023 10:28am Jul 28, 2023 10:28am
Fair value was less than 1044 today.. Lower on the week, higher than yesterday.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #110,803
  • Jul 28, 2023 10:32am Jul 28, 2023 10:32am
NAP time. Nothing more i can do today but wait.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #110,804
  • Jul 28, 2023 12:03pm Jul 28, 2023 12:03pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} testing H1... let see bears can hold at H1 close,,,... 40 mins to go.... my big short 1.1044 triggerred...with 20 pips stop...
I flat the shorts here , done for the day, sideline for now
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  • #110,805
  • Jul 28, 2023 3:31pm Jul 28, 2023 3:31pm
As much as I wanted to hold the short I closed it. In case Sunday the spread is wide. 1044+ spread. I didnt want to be stopped.
There is a decent chance pa will run back to 1035/36. Bird in the hand here at 1020. I can try to short 1035/44 Sunday maybe. I will be mad if it doesn't return and gaps down. It may gap down closing below 1044 today. I kinda expect it

I will not be surprised if it runs down the last 30 min. But, once again. "Bird in hand".
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #110,806
  • Jul 28, 2023 3:56pm Jul 28, 2023 3:56pm
It tagged 1012 the last 5 min
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #110,807
  • Jul 28, 2023 3:59pm Jul 28, 2023 3:59pm
Quoting gatorinla
It tagged 1012 the last 5 min {image}
1008 tagged
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #110,808
  • Jul 28, 2023 4:45pm Jul 28, 2023 4:45pm
Retailors net short look like they were handed their ass.
NC closed net 1500 longs.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #110,809
  • Jul 28, 2023 5:00pm Jul 28, 2023 5:00pm
Summary for next week. Pa closed the week below 1044. But above 0942. Its bearish to me into near 0942. I think 0942 will break. But it may take several tries. 0942 is a support. A large support. A bounce is expected until its tamed. If pa starts a day close above 1044 it changes things toward 1108.
I side with the 1186 algo is forcing a reverse of the last 10 months of the bullish run. Into a larger bear run to 07990. It will not go straight to 0790. It will take time with some periods of bullish leaning. Between 0941 and 1044 is 0993. The close earlier was 1009. A chance of the gap being -0993. A chance also to run to 1035 sometime Sunday/ early Monday. That run may end up dropping close to 0942.. Have a good weekend.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #110,810
  • Jul 28, 2023 5:02pm Jul 28, 2023 5:02pm
Not much Monday.. AUD may be worth a poke.
Month ending pa.. 1044/35 may be tested. A month close may be telling.
I will go out on a limb. A short from 1035 to close the month below 0942 is probably a holder.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #110,811
  • Jul 28, 2023 5:08pm Jul 28, 2023 5:08pm
Quoting gatorinla
As much as I wanted to hold the short I closed it. In case Sunday the spread is wide. 1044+ spread. I didnt want to be stopped. There is a decent chance pa will run back to 1035/36. Bird in the hand here at 1020. I can try to short 1035/44 Sunday maybe. I will be mad if it doesn't return and gaps down. It may gap down closing below 1044 today. I kinda expect it I will not be surprised if it runs down the last 30 min. But, once again. "Bird in hand".
I'm not in any eusd trade instead I'm long uchf thus I will be happy if eusd gaps down they're still somehow correlated.1.1275 was perfectly inline with uchf monthly level around 0.8560 ,no new daily high so far maybe Monday we'll see,have a nice weekend
better be not enough salt than too much salt
  • #110,812
  • Jul 29, 2023 11:03am Jul 29, 2023 11:03am
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  • #110,813
  • Jul 29, 2023 1:16pm Jul 29, 2023 1:16pm
Ancient worms revived after 46,000 years...
https://news.sky.com/story/amp/ancie...years-12929066
I am who I am
  • #110,814
  • Jul 29, 2023 8:22pm Jul 29, 2023 8:22pm
Quoting imwim
Ancient worms revived after 46,000 years... https://news.sky.com/story/amp/ancie...years-12929066
Viagra?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #110,815
  • Jul 30, 2023 8:16am Jul 30, 2023 8:16am
Quoting bzzz
{quote} I'm not in any eusd trade instead I'm long uchf thus I will be happy if eusd gaps down they're still somehow correlated.1.1275 was perfectly inline with uchf monthly level around 0.8560 ,no new daily high so far maybe Monday we'll see,have a nice weekend
The eu closed below 1044. I'm biased to a drop to near/test 0942. But it may also retest 1035/44 once more. Since the week has closed below 1044. The latest leaning is for 0942 to break. Monday being the month close could trump this. Monday closing below 0942 leaves little room to misinterpret the bear bias. This would help the usd/chf to rise.

But since Friday did not close below 0942. It also gives pa a shot at breaking up above 1044. This is the risk to me. 1035 may attract pa. There could be a sweet short 1035/44 area. But its also where bulls can regain a foothold +1044. If there able to break North of 1044, after 1.0942 was tested Friday.

I favored a eu short with this small risk. But I can also change to long, or neutral if pa changes. I shorted at 1044. I could of held it. But pa was too close to my stop late Friday. I chose to close with 24 pips, before the spread widened. If its bearish, it may not reach 1035 again. But on a normal day, it would reach 1035, before the drop. Of coursed jf it bullish, 1035 would be hit. If I wasn't sleeping Friday, I may had longed close to 0942 to tp 0991.
Monday is the month's end I see both bull/bear sides. My preference is to be short when below 1044. Closes count. When above 1045 with closes. 1108 has to be considered. PA closed at 1009 Friday. That's 35 pips from 1044. Add in some spread and slip to about 40 pips. 0942 is about 68 pips lower. I would go with the 68 pips if forced. Friday at 1044 the risk was so much smaller. the reward so much larger. Often the difference between trading Forex for a living, or keep ones day job.
If Monday closed below 1.0942. 1.0942 + a little slip may become R. month average rage is 400 pips. 1.0542 is about 400 pips. The year pp at 0576
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #110,816
  • Jul 30, 2023 1:08pm Jul 30, 2023 1:08pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} The eu closed below 1044. I'm biased to a drop to near/test 0942. But it may also retest 1035/44 once more. Since the week has closed below 1044. The latest leaning is for 0942 to break. Monday being the month close could trump this. Monday closing below 0942 leaves little room to misinterpret the bear bias. This would help the usd/chf to rise.
CHF index just reversed to down trend on H4 timeframe at rollover time...I'll buy USDCHF till reach the target of 0.90xxx which is 300 pips away from the current week close price 0.87006 on Oanda...
I am who I am
  • #110,817
  • Jul 30, 2023 2:31pm Jul 30, 2023 2:31pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} The eu closed below 1044. I'm biased to a drop to near/test 0942. But it may also retest 1035/44 once more. Since the week has closed below 1044. The latest leaning is for 0942 to break. Monday being the month close could trump this. Monday closing below 0942 leaves little room to misinterpret the bear bias. This would help the usd/chf to rise. But since Friday did not close below 0942. It also gives pa a shot at breaking up above 1044. This is the risk to me. 1035 may attract pa. There could be a sweet short 1035/44 area. But its also where...
WHat I see is 1.0990 maybe tested during Asia session, if it breaks then 1.0942 maybe threatned and like you said if closed below it may become resistance but if 1.0990 holds then bulls appetit may take it to test 1.1045 again and if broken then 1.1090 area is where I will be looking to short
better be not enough salt than too much salt
  • #110,818
  • Jul 30, 2023 3:48pm Jul 30, 2023 3:48pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Viagra?
your boy...
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  • #110,819
  • Jul 30, 2023 4:20pm Jul 30, 2023 4:20pm
7/31 Monday trading levels.. last day of the month for the month end rebalancing...

1.1104
1.1064
1.1039

1.1000 PP

1.0960
1.0936
1.0896

next to print 1.1039 or 1.1000
  • #110,820
  • Jul 30, 2023 8:26pm Jul 30, 2023 8:26pm
Quoting Boulder
{quote} your boy... {image}
Yeah. I'm glad to have donated the DNA.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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