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USDCAD trend reversal?

  • #221
  • May 25, 2007 10:34am May 25, 2007 10:34am
Quoting currinexfx
I am long on USD/CAD since 1.10 and add long every 100 pips, eventually it will go up and I am holding to this position!
oh geez..
  • #222
  • May 25, 2007 10:37am May 25, 2007 10:37am
Quoting bravado
another good way to go long on this pair is @ 1.100.
Why do you want to go long @ 1.100? To me that's a big support from the past, that probably is going to act as a BIG resistans.
  • #223
  • May 25, 2007 10:39am May 25, 2007 10:39am
Quoting currinexfx
I am long on USD/CAD since 1.10 and add long every 100 pips, eventually it will go up and I am holding to this position!
Jesus...

WHY does it have to go up at all? it does NOT have to do nothing at all. Look at GBPJPY: it's climbed 2000 pips in the last two months. If anyone shorted and held along the way thinking "it will eventually go down", he would have bankrupted long ago. People in this forums have been saying that it will turn upward since 1.1100. It's been 300 pips and the chart is showing NO reasons to believe that the trend is weakening.

So what exactly makes you think to go long? and what's more, to keep adding up to a losing position? or is it a gut feeling?
  • #224
  • May 25, 2007 10:41am May 25, 2007 10:41am
Quoting currinexfx
I am long on USD/CAD since 1.10 and add long every 100 pips, eventually it will go up and I am holding to this position!
this makes me want to go long right now.

but, i will wait.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #225
  • May 25, 2007 10:45am May 25, 2007 10:45am
Quoting currinexfx
I am long on USD/CAD since 1.10 and add long every 100 pips, eventually it will go up and I am holding to this position!
Why you do that?... Man, dont get married with a position. "eventually" may be next month, in two years or never...

Take advantage of present trend, its there in your chart! Dont act according to "possible" future trends!
  • #226
  • May 25, 2007 10:46am May 25, 2007 10:46am
the mentality that 'it can't go any lower' is so prevalent in here. Trading is about going with the market rather than impose your beliefs on it.

I've read quite a few books on stocks and one of the MAJOR themes that I find in stock trading is bargain hunting. There's two schools of thought in stocks, value and growth.

Growth trader buy the hot stocks that are growing and growing. Sometimes they would use a value parameter (i.e price/sales, p/e..) to get a good price.

Value trader look for a GOOD business that has gone down in value due to some recent hurdles like lawsuits, product defect, that hasn't affected the fundamentals of the business.

So BOTH traders look for bargains in their stock and they want to get in early before the stock goes off again. Getting bargains is in our nature. How many times you've gone to a home dealer, car dealer, or just a plain mom-pop shop and try to get a bargain for something you want to buy.

So in forex, I see people doing the same thing. They think 'this will not go any lower, so I'll get in now' hoping that that would be the lowest point of the move (bargain) and you would profit handsomely when price start to move in the other direction.
  • #227
  • May 25, 2007 10:54am May 25, 2007 10:54am
Quoting grillbritt
Why do you want to go long @ 1.100? To me that's a big support from the past, that probably is going to act as a BIG resistans.
correct. that is where the battle will be fought. and that's where i'll risk my troops. if won, could be some great reward. in current situation anyway.

the whole idea behind resistance is it can become a support. vice versa.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #228
  • May 25, 2007 10:54am May 25, 2007 10:54am
Quoting hilmy83
the mentality that 'it can't go any lower' is so prevalent in here. Trading is about going with the market rather than impose your beliefs on it.

I've read quite a few books on stocks and one of the MAJOR themes that I find in stock trading is bargain hunting. There's two schools of thought in stocks, value and growth.

Growth trader buy the hot stocks that are growing and growing. Sometimes they would use a value parameter (i.e price/sales, p/e..) to get a good price.

Value trader look for a GOOD business that has gone down in value due to some recent hurdles like lawsuits, product defect, that hasn't affected the fundamentals of the business.

So BOTH traders look for bargains in their stock and they want to get in early before the stock goes off again. Getting bargains is in our nature. How many times you've gone to a home dealer, car dealer, or just a plain mom-pop shop and try to get a bargain for something you want to buy.

So in forex, I see people doing the same thing. They think 'this will not go any lower, so I'll get in now' hoping that that would be the lowest point of the move (bargain) and you would profit handsomely when price start to move in the other direction.
Amen.
  • #229
  • May 25, 2007 11:11am May 25, 2007 11:11am
Quoting pabloski
Take advantage of present trend, its there in your chart! Dont act according to "possible" future trends!
i agree with you and cesarnc among others who are bearish on this pair. i'm thinking you guys shorted this pair from way above and are in positive pip territory currently.

usdcad IS bearish. the trend is in favor of those who are short. these are facts.

having said that, if i were to jump in at this very moment i would go short, my probability would be higher. if i have any personal doubts about continuation of this trend i would wait. unless there were good reasons behind my decision. which i don't see at the moment. not at these levels.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #230
  • May 25, 2007 12:19pm May 25, 2007 12:19pm
Quoting bravado
if i were to jump in at this very moment...

I personally dont have any problem joining an already established trend (some would call it a "late trend") after a retrace up. I am a swing trader, not a enter-and-hold trader, so I like to treat each swing as an individual event. If at every new swing I get a solid signal after a pullback up, I will continue entering short until the trend gives way. I will probably score a loss on the last swing of this trend whenever it occurs, but I dont mind that as long as I have been profiting for the previous swings down. So as long as we keep getting new swings down and I keep getting short signals, I will continue triggering new short positions as dictated by my system.

I dont think there's such a thing as a late trend. Who knows how long a trend is going to last? It could last months and give out easily 10+ swings in one direction!
  • #231
  • May 25, 2007 12:36pm May 25, 2007 12:36pm
Quoting WTB
I am a swing trader, not a enter-and-hold trader...as dictated by my system.
that right there, what you just said, makes the difference. difference in strategies. plus i'm not keen on the fundamental forces driving the canadian dollar up so much.

Quote
I dont think there's such a thing as a late trend. Who knows how long a trend is going to last?

exactly.
BAM BAM BOOM! -bravado
  • #232
  • May 26, 2007 1:09am May 26, 2007 1:09am
The pair last year in the same period ( end of May 2006 ) has recorded an all time low @ 1.0927 , and within two monthes the US Dollar recovered and reached 1.14 , and it kept on recovering till the 1.1850 levels .

So why are you so pessimistic against the USD , may be it will dive more , but its a matter of time since it will fly again .

Im long sinse 1.0970 and Im ready to wait .

good luck for all
  • #233
  • May 26, 2007 1:31am May 26, 2007 1:31am
You must have very deep pockets.
The breaking of a wave cannot explain the whole sea.
  • #234
  • May 26, 2007 1:43am May 26, 2007 1:43am
Quoting just-different
The pair last year in the same period ( end of May 2006 ) has recorded an all time low @ 1.0927 , and within two monthes the US Dollar recovered and reached 1.14 , and it kept on recovering till the 1.1850 levels .

So why are you so pessimistic against the USD , may be it will dive more , but its a matter of time since it will fly again .

Im long sinse 1.0970 and Im ready to wait .

good luck for all
Sorry I've posted here before, but all time low for this pair was at around 0.96 somewhere in the 1970s.

Chart is here: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2...r+Series+ID%3E
Tra-X
  • #235
  • May 26, 2007 2:07am May 26, 2007 2:07am
picking bottoms and tops is the way to go.
  • #236
  • May 26, 2007 3:39am May 26, 2007 3:39am
Quoting amylase
picking bottoms and tops is the way to go.

you could have "picked" a bottom on many of the micro-retracements and been utterly wrong. Alternatively you could have just followed the trend and been smugly right. why try to stop a moving train?
TRADE FOR SWAP
  • #237
  • May 26, 2007 3:52am May 26, 2007 3:52am
Quoting cgldsmth
you could have "picked" a bottom on many of the micro-retracements and been utterly wrong. Alternatively you could have just followed the trend and been smugly right. why try to stop a moving train?
I believe sarcasm may have been amylase's intent.
The breaking of a wave cannot explain the whole sea.
  • #238
  • May 26, 2007 4:15am May 26, 2007 4:15am
What is the last station are you thinking this train will visit ?

Is it possible that 1.0730 will be the final destination for the USD/CAD train ?

Im afraid that I will sell my laptob in the end to keep running behind it .
  • #239
  • May 26, 2007 5:52am May 26, 2007 5:52am
We also should to bear in mind that the dollar itself is still in the life support area.

Dollar has recovered from the bottom during these last weeks, in what may have appeard as a redemption, but looking at the broader view, it was just a 23% retracement of the last push down and now dollar is holding at the previous low in Dec 2006, now, expected resistance. So the bias, is still extremely bearish for the dollar.

http://i2.photobucket.com/albums/y28.../usdindex1.png

Also, in the composition of the USD-index, the USDJPY (along with EURUSD)is one of the main components and USDJPY is ultra bullish lately mostly due to the carry trade action. So this "dollar redemption" also had the help of the Yen weakness.

Below we have the broader 2 years view, which makes it clear that the dollar is still in the respiratorville.

http://i2.photobucket.com/albums/y28.../usdindex2.png

I'm not a gambler, but if I have to bet here, I'd bet on dollar's downtrend continuation.

Resistance in the 1st chart breached delays the scenario in the short term.

So, even if the CAD stops its willing to go up against the dollar, the dollar breaking this 2005' low will push USDCAD all the way down. And there will be no foreseable bottom for the dollar, as we shouldn't be looking for USDCAD's at this moment.
  • #240
  • May 26, 2007 6:10am May 26, 2007 6:10am
Can USDCAD go down forever?

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