Steviet's Live Trades!

Quoting Northpro

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Steve,

Alcastro said everything I was thinking myself. I too had come to the resolution that changes were/are innevitable and it takes courage to take a step back, admit that although ones system is good, it does have a weakness. When that weakness is exposed and reveales its ugly head, rather than stubbornly navigating through it without a compass, there comes a time in a traders headspace where he/she hits a critical point. To stop and take another look at your method/technique away from the trading table is probably the best "trade" one can make. It may be a total abandonment or just a minor fix/filter that is required..who knows, but without looking, you'll never know. You are becoming a better trader, not only because you have survived thus far, but more importantly, you have the courage and conviction to recognize errors, admit them for all to see, and make the changes required. Awesome improvemnts have just occurred my friend. I for one cannot wait for your next phase of trades.

Cheers,
Northpro

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Quoting Isotonic

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well, IS, alcastro and northpro have summed it up pretty well - so there isn't much for me to say really. classic trend trading was always a pretty tough gig - which is what impressed me initially when you tried to have a crack at it.

what is evident in your journal is how much you've come on since then - something you rarely get to share with other traders online. i don't think i've seen a better trading journal on the net.

it's still early days in your career, keep experimenting until you find something that works for you and always keep your positive thinking and enthusiasm with you. i still think you'll be a great trader one day (sorry if that sounds like an old cliche)...one of the few potentials you see every now and again on forums like this.

don't forget, we're all here rooting for you buddy!

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Quoting tiku

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If the individualistic "guess" seems to have an edge over mechanical trading approaches whenever you are in a "good state of mind", like you had proven here Stevie, you are obliged to develop an "emotion management system" which brings you up to the right mental condition before taking a decision or prevents you from trading at all. How could this "emotion management" possibly look like?

Regards
T.

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Quoting Isotonic

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one thing you've proved time and again here is consistency to keep the journal going. maintaining a journal every day is hardwork and time consuming as you've seen.

i don't know your schedule but if it cuts into your other daily or trading activities consider scaling it back. for example you could use the time saved for more experimentation without the daily pressure of reporting results. always keep plenty of stuff in reserve and just report on what you can do easily.

for example i don't know what books you've read but as well as merlin's book list, also consider -

john murphy - "technical analysis of financial markets" - with these books read dow theory, trend lines, reversals and continuations - and skip all the indicator stuff

van tharp - "special report on money management": all you need to know, only 70 pages long. other mentions are ralph vince's "mathematics on MM".

i think you've got the right mindset from the beginning to be a trader but also consider reading mark douglas's "trading in the zone".

this is just an example mind, i'm sure you've got your own ideas...

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Quoting diminuendo

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Hi Steviet,
i have to admit that the last 3 weeks have been absolute
sh*** for me as well. After the first trade of the month, sold Cable
and i was +78 pips up, the following 5 trades have been losers.
More than likely it's a given that nobody can
be a consistent trader 100% of the time due to the innumerable
variable factors involved in the make up of any market, and that in
a market like the last few weeks it's a matter of sitting tight and
waiting for the storm to blow over.
Perhaps, come June your system
will come right and you'll be back on track.

Diminuendo.

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Quoting tiku

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Dear Steve,
I stumbled over your thread three or four nights ago and up to now I have read almost every single post - nooo ... exagerating a bit - but almost ;-).
First of all I wanted to thank you for your discipline and eager dedication to follow on your tasks. It was inspiring to me also.

After reviewing the whole picture here, I wanted to resume some things:

You picked a good method you liked and felt comfortable with. Promising three first month did inspire you and us following on with it.

In February market turned to difficult conditions for your method and produced - like you had expected it from your backtesting - poor results.

This going on for a couple of weeks made you feel uncomfortable or unhappy. You started with concern, thought about possible changes (SL rules etc.) and added additional decision tools i.e. trendlines.

Things were getting worse and even though market conditions turned better in March for you and your original trading method, results maintained to keep fair under expectations. You tried different things in the following, even switched the currency pairs you had chosen before out of well considered reasons.

All this did not bring you back to the winning street you went on for the first three months.

I can only find one reason for that. It is caused by the fact that your entry rules were quite vague. You decided at decision time each evening where to go from pure price action and candle patterns.

This meant, you made a decision - "a guess" - from bringing yourself in harmony with the visible psychology of the present market condition and choosing a direction from there.

Your exit was somehow "automated" as it was defined by a fixed rule you have been applying strictly.

As long as you were in harmony with yourself and as long as you felt comfortable with your trading style, your guesses had been quite successful.

When things started to get difficult in February, you lost this ability to choose the "right guess" and were not able to get it back even though the market conditions turned to get better in favor of your system in March.

NOW to point that clear: I reckon this vague decision process to be one of the ADVANTAGES of your system, although many traders won't agree with this.

On the other hand, this discretionary part of your system made it vulnerable and dependend of your inner psychological harmony with yourself and your style of trading.

This means: as long as you can keep yourself in this relaxed state of mind I would like to call "inner harmony" for more than 6 months - and even though things turn sometimes against you due to wrong decisions you will take from time to time or due to market conditions - you will have extraordinary results in the long run.

Now you applied pretty cautious money management and that prevented you from loosing even your initial capital. But if you would have continued like before (with so many loosing desicions), even this would have led to a long term loss over all.

I went through these psychological steps quite some times by myself. I have sucessfully traded a 10K EUR demo account up to 40K and then losses started and I lost everything until the end of that account. This happened some 4-5 years ago.

After this first try I went live but busted several 3000, 200, 700 EUR in live accounts.

After stopping for a while and "let things loose" I started again with a demo account and traded it from 10K up to 265 K within 3 and a half month period.

Then the same process took its toll: After a bigger loss I lost the confidence I had built up previously and produced more of those losses. I must admit, that I never applied such sound money management rules like you did, but I think that this only takes away the sharpness of the psychological pattern behind your individual profile of winning or loosing. Money management protects you and gives you more time to recover as I must admit (this is definetly something I am much more aware today), but it is not the reason for your gains or losses nor for your long term success.

After this I started again with a life account of 10K, out of pure desperation, and it did not turn well. I have lost everything, after the first losses brought my account balance unter break even. The harder I tried to get back to break even the more wrong decisions I took.

After this I took a longer break. After a year I felt well again, financially healthy after a bigger deal I managed to achieve in my 9-5 career, I started again with 10K live and went onto 80K live within 3 month period. I took out 35K and for the first time I was break even including all my former losses.

After this I got greedy and careless due to 3 month of running successes. I "saw" the big move, overleveraged the account and nearly lost half of the remaining 45K. Struggling for 2 more month to get back there where I had been, led to more "bad decisions" and blowing of the account. (Besides, the "big move" came, but a couple of weeks later than expected and I was blown already)

I guess this is the basic psychological pattern behind it and it is visible following your journal as well.

Thanks for documenting it so thoroughly.

So to pinpoint the main issue here:

1) Whenever you have a discretionary or half disdretionary system (like you did), you have to focus on your "psychological wellness" as it is one of the key-factors of your success or doom.

2) You have to make sure that you only trade in state of "inner harmony" in order to get your "intuition" to make more winning decisions than loosing decisions.

3) Money management is extremely important for getting the time to re-focus yourself into this "inner harmony" when circumstances like a wrong decision and a bigger loss or a weakness of your system due to market conditions bring yourself out of inner balance. This part I obviously did not well, but you have done so and proved it to be true.

4) I doubt the superiority of mechanical (=completely automated i.e. not emotional) system approach. If it was superior to discretionary decision taking all the time, everybody would use it and some systems would rule the world. This is definetly not the case.

I know that especially the last point might be very polarizing to the trading community. But I do not want to imply a discussion of discretionary against mechanical trading approaches here.

It is your journal Steve and I want to pose the question to you and to all the others here:

If the individualistic "guess" seems to have an edge over mechanical trading approaches whenever you are in a "good state of mind", like you had proven here Stevie, you are obliged to develop an "emotion management system" which brings you up to the right mental condition before taking a decision or prevents you from trading at all. How could this "emotion management" possibly look like?

Regards
T.

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Quoting markt

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I must say it is clear everyone including myself have enjoyed your thread. I think you not posting will be a loss for every in the forex community. I dare say that not posting will prove difficult. I am sure you will succeed and now you can plan again... how exciting is that?
A blank piece of paper once again but a headstart from once it all began. I have said before (and I am learning fast too) that MM (at 0.5% per trade may be more appropriate), selective trading the pairs that meet your daily system. (not trading all pairs because you feel you have to) and lastly the s/l (a bone of contention for everyone), although recently some posts on your thread have been more than interesting especially (I think from?)ItalianSharp, a big opening statement. A great inspiration for me and I think a great talking point for many others. Good luck with your future trades. Aren't you looking forward to next Tuesday already!
All the very best!

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Quoting brxxt

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I have read "Trading in the Zone", its an amazing read about the discipline that distinguishes professionals from nonprof. It doesn't try to teach u a 500pip a week system or any bullcrap like that, its just the true psychology behind a real traders mind. I think it will be good for you because u'll realize how many things u've been doing right, but also where you can improve.

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Quoting steviet

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Hi T,


I try and stay as emotionless as possible as far as actually making the trading decisions are concerned but I don't think you can ever get away from it completely. That and reading other threads about the pair you're just about to make a trade on - very difficult but I try my best lol.

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