East Coast Cable Sleepover Strategy

I've just started looking at a similar strategy, except I noticed the market usually stays ranged on non-news days. Currently I'm only looking at GBPUSD. I have a couple of different levels to fade.

1. I set the base price at open at 18:00 EST (no particular reason)
2. Fade a move of 38 pips from base price
3. If market continues to move against me another 43 pips, I fade again and set the first position to BE and the second to close at my second order price.
4. SL on both 100 pips from entry price
Total loss possible = 100 (first position) + 57 (second position)

Just thought you'd like to see if days before news helped your strategy

So your thinking it may be moving ahead of time on news days. As in a little more fluctuation. Would you like to post your results after a few days. I was thinking about 1800-1900EST timeframe - right before I leave work to setup a trade since all it does is usually trend until midnight eastern. Thanks for jumping in with ideas...

Also - Sam1 thanks for that EA. I googled it and found more info from another site. It does have a similar principal. It looks pretty nice. I'll keep working on mine, but I'll play with the scalper a bit. Thanks again!!!

5/21 Base 1.9710
Sell 750 SL 790 TP 710
Buy 670 SL 630 TP 710

Alt Strategy:
Sell 730 SL 770 TP 690
Buy 690 SL 650 TP 730

Minnelli

I think it remains in a range ahead of news. For example the market rarely moves outside a range two days prior to NFP. It was this fact that lead me to look at other alternatives. So I'm saying if you look at the calm time your looking at and if you consider news days, i.e NFP, CPI, FOMC, etc., you should be able to increase your win percentage.

I'm not considering time frames but the whole 24 hours. I should probably start a new thread though since this is a different method. I'm starting the backtesting tomorrow.

broug - when you get your thread started feel free to drop a link here

5/21 - no trade - go figure

alt strategy short @ 730 - will post result later. I'm not sure if the rule should be to let it run since the trade is on, or to just close it and lose 10. I'll let it run for now.

Minnelli

5/21 alt strategy got stopped out at 770 the mkt only went as high at 768, but thats life in forex -40 for alt strategy

5/22 Base 1.9745
Sell 785 SL 825 TP 745
Buy 705 SL 665 TP 745

Alt Strategy
Sell 765 SL 805 TP 725
Buy 725 SL 685 TP 765

Minnelli

Anyway - if anyone wants to help out that would be great. We could have the base be either manual or a moving avg over the last 2 hours or something. Setup the ranges (instead of 40) as a variable so we could do some decent testing. I could even see a pct of ATR as our range.

5/22 -40 this was a breakout day and nothing stopped the train today...

alt strategy -40

I still believe we can make this work. I see way to often a pair go up and retrace. I really think this happens more than a pair going straight up forever. It has to retrace - we just need to find the sweet spot and hour where this makes sense.

Minnelli

5/23 Base 1.9865
Sell 905 SL 945 TP 865
Buy 825 SL 785 TP 865

Alt
Sell 885 SL 925 TP 845
Buy 845 SL 805 TP 885

Minnelli

hello, nice night!!


4587269 2007/05/25 04:38 buy limit 10.00 gbpusd 1.98351.97951.9875 1.9855

4587270 2007/05/25 04:39 sell limit 10.00 gbpusd 1.98751.99151.9835 1.9851

A/C Summary:Closed Trade P/L:8000.00


I will continue to test this system. As long as we are trending we will do well with your system. Thanks

Thanks MrPipMaster for joining in - any help or suggestions will be appreciated. However, my results differed a bit...but I like your better

5/24 Base 1.9855
Sell 895 SL 935 TP 855 - never hit
Buy 815 SL 775 TP 855 - never hit

Alt Strategy:
Sell 875 SL 915 TP 835 - open +35 now
Buy 835 SL 795 TP 875 - never hit

Minnelli

hello and goodmorning again, i hit the alt this morning and closed at 32 pips gain. The market was starting to respond to the Only News being released from the U.S. Home Sales. Thanks have a wonderful weekend!!



2007/05/25 06:55sell10.00gbpusd1.98751.99151.9835 2007/05/25 13:121.9843 3200.00

current account balance starting with $10,000.00 account: 21200.00 not bad for two days of testing.

Hey guys, this is my first post. I noticed that your strategy is similar to one of my strategies in the EUR/USD. I have tested it against the GBP/USD but the results were not as good. I have coded this GBP/USD strategy in easy language and backtested it with some of the times/and #’s I use for my eur/usd strategy.

10.00pm-1200am cst: take (high – low) and divide by 2 and add that to the low (this is your mid point) A-B on chart
Orders entered at 12:00am CST ( I am Chicago so I run everything on CST)
Order placed 40/80 above/below mid point line
If no orders are filled by 7:15am cst cancel all orders.

I ran the profit portion of this strategy 2 ways. Your way which (if I read correctly) exits a profitable trade once you get back to the midpoint line + 40 and I ran it with an exit at 2:40pm. Exiting at 2:40pm and letting a winning position ride was a lot more profitable then just taking +40. If you are risking 40 pips you want your profit target to be higher then 40 pips. I will attach a chart to show you what I am doing.


I have backtesting results I can display later. Have a good weekend.

MikeHabit - Glad you joined in the discussion. This is great, now if we could convert easy language back over to an EA I would be in business

Using the EURUSD is fine. In the past when I played with a similar strategy I used 4 pairs to help spreading the risk. I also tried a couple exit strategies. So I like your idea of two entries 40 and say 80 (this could be optimized) and letting it run past the +40. But maybe the strategy could be say:
.5lots SL 40 TP 40
.5lots SL 40 Trailing Stop of 40 or exit at mkt open or some set time (maybe even tight trailing stop.

I look forward to your results. Again, as I mentioned before, I think the market retraces more than it breakouts. Again, thanks for joining the thread and we all look forward to your results.

Minnelli

I am new to this forum but I am assuming “EA” is for meta trader4. It would be nice if there was a way to convert EL to MQL4.

I am running an optimization on tradestation but it still has 8 hours to go. I ran 40-60 for entry and 80-120 for stops in 5 pip increments. I will post those results as well.

I will add in a trailing stop once the +40 maker is hit on the next go around.

If you want the EL code I can post if it will help you out any. It only took 5 minutes to write in EL.

i am curious to know if you adjust the time to more like CST 2:10 or 2:15, if your results might be better only because reversals often happen right after 2 CST.
just a thought.

another thing to try out might be this filter- if price at 11 CST opens below your midline and central pivot point (recalculated at 11CST) ONLY look for longs and if above, ONLY look for shorts.

let me know what you think.

FX ninja – this can be done. Do you want the order entry to go in at 2:10 with the mid point calc starting at 12:00am? or is that when you want to cancel the unfilled orders? All of these times can all be optimized as well.

I use 10pm-12am to calculate the mid point line because the GBPUSD is usually flat and I want to get my orders in before the EUR and GBP sessions begin. The reason I use 7:15 to cancel order is because most US news come in at 7:30am and you don’t want to get caught in that.

I use a filter for my EURUSD strategy. I use daily support and resistance #’s. If the price at midnight is at resistance level 1 then I cancel the buy side but I keep the sell side in. if the midnight price is at resistance level 2 - I cancel all orders, I do the same for support 1-2.

I am sorry for not being clear. these are just ideas. i havent tested any of this yet. I dont know how to program EAs yet.

re: 2:10, 2:15, i was thinking to take some profit (maybe 25% ?) around that time for orders that have been filled. especially if the profit is at least +40.

the canceling of orders by 7:15 makes sense.
mid point calculation makes sense to me. i was just trying to add another filtering rule by incorporating the central pivot point strategy which is very similar to ur already existing S/R order cancel rules.

i will try and post a chart to explain what i am trying to test.

not much data here, but here goes for the last 2 days.
trying to couple key S/R with key timeframes.

the red vertical lines are midnite EST. If the price at midinte EST is above the pivot, i look to sell a nearby resistance. if below, then vice versa.

then i look for mkt to move back towards pivot and basically be done with it's move by 3 or 4 EST. we can get an idea of the session range by looking at the last few days session range(maybe 3-5 dayss?), averaging them and giving more weight to the more recent days.

take that number, divide it by 2 and calculate 1/2 above the pivot and the other half below.
By doing this, i think the stop can be kept tight, cuz if the avg range is anticpated to be say, ~ 60, no need to risk a whole lot if the entry near support or resistance is 25-35 below or above the pivot.

the other filter would be overall mkt bias filter.
In the chart, i had mkt bias as favoring short side. even tho the long worked out, i considered it kind of a counter trend trade for the session.
So - maybe a a setting to tighten the stop for setups where the setup is considered to be counter trend to the overall mkt bias and/or MACD is showing divergence.

on aonther note, i faded the M4 level (3470) but exited to soon, so i did not get good profit from the follow thru.
I took that short due to MACD divergence (on a 1 min corresponding chart)
and the key timeframe near the london close, cuz i was anticipating a reversal from the highest resistance point hit around that key timeframe that was above the pivot point.

Thanks again for everyone joining in the thread. We will wait and see what MikeHabit comes up with on the EURUSD results.

5/28
Base 1.9825
Sell 865 SL 905 TP 825
Buy 785 SL 745 TP 825

Alt Strategy
Sell 845 SL 865 TP 805
Buy 805 SL 765 TP 845

Minnelli

I have attached an optimization and back testing report. The back testing was set at 40/80 entry/exit off the mid point line. The exit setting for a profit is set for a 2:40 pm cst exit. It is only trading 1 lots. I wanted to do a barebones test and now we can dive into adding tweaks, trailing stops and FX Ninja’s ideas.

On the backtest results look in the Performance graphs section and notice the huge dip from 9/5/04-7/28/05. My EURUSD strategy has a dip as well but not as bad as this dip.

For the optimization report I set it to do entry/stop loss #’s. I ran 40-60 entry 80-120 stop loss. I used all the data available from 10/22/02-05/25/07. I will run more out of sample test later.

Mike

ok, cool. thx.